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Twitter Data Analytics

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  • Twitter wont need any introduction. We all r fimilarwid it. It connect us wid world, to our frnds, n family. Do the small tweets posted on twitter are of any value. Do twitter data is possible to analysis and is it benificial?
  • Create and share ideas and information instantly, without barriersA key feature of this platform is that, by default, each user’s stream of real-time posts is public. This fact, combined with its substantial population of users renders Twitter an extremely valuable resource for commercial and political data mining and research applications.
  • On twitter People write, express themselves, which now represents a new frontier for the study of human behavior.
  • there is a growing literature suggesting that online communication can be a valid indicator of offline behavior of ppl.
  • We believe that Twitter and other social media reflect the underlying trend in a political race that goes beyond a district’s fundamental geographic and demographic composition. If people must talk about you, even in negative ways, it is a signal that a candidate is on the verge of victory. The attention given to winners creates a situation in which all publicity is good publicity.
  • More Tweets, More Votes: Social Media as a Quantitative Indicator of Political Behavior
  • Simple linear regression lives up to its name: it is a very straightforward approach for predicting a quantitative response Y on the basis of a single predictor variable X. It assumes that there is approximately a linear relationship between X and Y .Simple regression y~mx+n (3.1) m,n are coefficients.In practice, β0/m and β1/n are unknown. So before we can use (3.1) to make predictions, we must use data to estimate the coefficients. Let(x1, y1), (x2, y2), . . . , (xn, yn) represent n observation pairs, each of which consists of a measurement of X and a measurement of Y .Our goal is to obtain coefficient estimates ˆ β0 and ˆ β1 such that the linear model (3.1) fits the available data well—that is, so that yi ≈ ˆβ0 + ˆ β1xi for i = 1, . . . , n. In other words, we want to find an intercept ˆ β0 and a slope ˆ β1 such that the resulting line is as close as possible vote sharing/y.The R2 statistic provides an alternative measure of fit. It takes the form of a proportion—the proportion of variance explained—and so it always takes on a value between 0 and 1, and is independent of the scale of Y . To calculate R2, we use the formulaR2 = TSS − RSS / TSS= 1− RSS/TSSwhere TSS =(yi − ¯y)2 is the total sum of squares, and RSS is defined total sum of in (3.16). TSS measures the total variance in the response Y , and can be squares thought of as the amount of variability inherent in the response before the regression is performed.R2 measures the proportion of variability in Y that can be explained using X.
  • Hashtag : short tokens used to indicate the topic or intended audience of a tweet
  • Transcript

    • 1. TWITTER DATA ANALYTICS
    • 2. Twitter • Create and share ideas and information without barriers • Free social networking and micro-blogging site • Users sent 140 character long text messages
    • 3. Facts about Twitter http://www.statisticbrain.com/twitter-statistics/
    • 4. Online Communication, Offline Behavior slurs correlate with lower vote tallies for • Searches for ethnic minority politicians • Film title mentions correlate with revenue • Online expressions of public mood correlate with fluctuations in stock market prices • Sophisticated models for individual and group behavior
    • 5. Twitter Can Predict US Elections • Fabio Rojas, Published on August 12, 2013, Indiana University professor from Department of Sociology • Digital democracy • “Modern politics happens when somebody comments on Twitter or links to a campaign through Facebook” • extracted 542,969 tweets • predicted the winner in 404 out of 435 competitive candidate for Congress in 2010 http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-twitter-can-predict-an-election/2013/08/11/35ef885a-0108-11e3-96a8d3b921c0924a_story.html?wpisrc=emailtoafriend
    • 6. Kejriwal VS Modi on Social Media • “Arvind Kejriwal has better engagement on social media, Narendra Modi has twice the numbers” 15th Feb 2014 in Indian Express • • • • • Total number of followers Daily increase in followers Number of fake followers Tweets per day Topics http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/arvindkejriwal-narendramodi-social-media/
    • 7. Why does this happen? • People talks +ve/-ve • all publicity is good publicity
    • 8. More Tweets, More Votes • 537,231,508 tweets between Aug 1 to Nov 1, 2010 and 3,032,823,110 tweets between August 1 and November 5, 2012 • extracted 113,985 tweets in 2010 and 428,984 in 2012 that contain name of the Republican or Democratic candidate • 28,193 users in 2010 and 166,978 users in 2012 • For each candidate computed tweets that include their names DiGrazia J, McKelvey K, Bollen J, Rojas F (2013) More Tweets, More Votes: Social Media as a Quantitative Indicator of Political Behavior. PLoS ONE 8(11): e79449. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0079449
    • 9. Analysis • Ordinary Least Squares regression (OLS) to estimate the effect Twitter share on vote margin • Uses a bivariate model and a full model to estimate effect of the tweet and user share variables
    • 10. Tweet Share • tws(i) : the amount of Twitter attention given to a particular candidate over their opposition in a particular race • i : district • twD(i) and twR(i) : Democratic and Republican frequencies
    • 11. Figure 1. 2010 Republican Tweet Share vs. Vote Share. DiGrazia J, McKelvey K, Bollen J, Rojas F (2013) More Tweets, More Votes: Social Media as a Quantitative Indicator of Political Behavior. PLoS ONE 8(11): e79449. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0079449 http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0079449
    • 12. Figure 2. 2012 Republican Tweet Share vs. Vote Share. DiGrazia J, McKelvey K, Bollen J, Rojas F (2013) More Tweets, More Votes: Social Media as a Quantitative Indicator of Political Behavior. PLoS ONE 8(11): e79449. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0079449 http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0079449
    • 13. Part of Tweet • Tweet (Unique identifier, the text of the tweet, tweet time, the username, case of retweets or mentions the account names of the other users associated with the tweet)
    • 14. Part of Tweet • Emoticons : facial expressions pictorially represented using punctuation and letters • WATCH: #Malala witnesses the arrival of Syrian @refugees in Jordan in this moving video from #UNHCR http://uni.cf/1c35eyV • Target/Mention : Users of Twitter use the “@” symbol to refer to other users • Hashtags : Users usually use hashtags to mark topics
    • 15. Acronyms • Acronym English expansion • • • • • • • gr8, gr8t lol rotf bff 4U Ab Gud Great Laughing out Loud Rolling on the floor Best Friend Forever For you About Good
    • 16. Emoticons • Emoticon Polarity • • • • • :-) :) :o) :] :3 :c) :D C: :-( :( :c :[ D8 D; D= DX v.v :j Positive Extremely-Positive Negative Extremely-Negative Neutral
    • 17. Register as a Developer • • • • https://dev.twitter.com/ Create API consumerKey and consumerSecret R Package - twitteR
    • 18. Benefits • Social media analysis is cheap • Any citizen can harvest social media data and learn about the election in his or her area
    • 19. References • http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal. pone.0079449#pone-0079449-t001 • http://josephdigrazia.com/site/Research.html • https://dev.twitter.com/ • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bivariate_analysis • http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/arvindkejriwalnarendramodi-social-media/ • http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-twitter-can-predictan-election/2013/08/11/35ef885a-0108-11e3-96a8d3b921c0924a_story.html?wpisrc=emailtoafriend
    • 20. References • DiGrazia J, McKelvey K, Bollen J, Rojas F (2013) More Tweets, More Votes: Social Media as a Quantitative Indicator of Political Behavior. PLoS ONE 8(11): e79449. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0079449 • http://www.statisticbrain.com/twitter-statistics/
    • 21. •Thank you

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