0
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Artist: Heyko Stoeber
Education
Futures:
Part of the
Solution or Part
of t...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Two Big Changes
Fundamental
indeterminacy
and the
creativity of
the univer...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
1. Embracing Complexity:
Changing the way we use the
future
Photo credit: ...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
The End of Certainty
… we are now able to include
probabilities in the for...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
The possible is not in the
future it is in the past.
“We must resign ourse...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Caught in the Probabilistic Stance:
Probable, Possible, Plausible
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
What difference
does it make?
After all everyday life
goes on.
So why both...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Then what? If we accept this
ontological starting point – how to make
it p...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
What is Futures Literacy?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Futures Literacy:
ambient strategic thinking
Futures Literacy is the capac...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
A. Anticipatory Systems
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Anticipatory Systems View
S : object system
M : model of S
E : effector sy...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
“The main difference between forecasting
and scenarios on the one hand, an...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
B. Three
dimensions
of the
potential of
the present
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Contingency futures:
winning the lottery
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Optimization Futures:
Chess, Farming, Assembly Line
• Non-complex
goal, kn...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Exploratory futures:
imagining the potential of the present
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
C. Hybrid Strategic Scenario Method
Rigorous
imagining –
developing
analyt...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Futures Literacy: Decision Making Capacity
Using the Future for Knowledge ...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Futures Literacy in Practice
• Level 1 futures literacy
–Temporal awarenes...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Anticipatory Methods:
Context Makes a Difference
ExplorationComplex
Simple...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
2. The Learning Intensive Society
Scenario – A Level 2 Model
Technology
Ec...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Industrial
(goods & services,
public & private)
Craft/Creative
Household
A...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Learning in every day life is more
intense if, in daily life, over a lifet...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Greater Learning Intensity of Daily Life
Source: Riel Miller, XperidoX Fut...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Moving to the Micro-Level:
Complex societal evolution
• Economic
• Social
...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Systemic Economic Transformation:
Changes What and How We Produce
“Next st...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Unique
creation
Low
learning
intensity
High
learning
intensity
Mass-
produ...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Teasing the Imagination:
Tools for Unique Creation
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
First car
produced
using a
“desk-top
factory”
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Industrial Era
Sequential Production, Consumption,
Resource Deployment Pro...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Conception
Management
Execution
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Starlings Flying in a Flock
Imagine Clouds of Unique Creation
Flows of Col...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Describing Social
Dimensions of the LIS
• Attributes of identity:
– source...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Hetero-
geneous/small
Homo-
geneous /large
Decisions - what,
where, when,
...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Describing
Governance
Dimensions of the LIS
Capacity to make &
implement d...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Governance: capacity to make
decisions
Experimentation &
learning
Transpar...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Less
manageable
– less clarity
of goal
More reflexivity
More
manageable
– ...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
1 – More university graduates does not
increase wealth nor lead to “greate...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Changing Composition of Output
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1985 1990 1995 2000...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
2 – Reducing classroom schooling
helps to avoid fundamentalism
Functions o...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Knowledge Creation and Destruction:
Remembering, forgetting and inventing
...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
3 – The wealthiest societies
have the highest average age
The productivity...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Transformation
“Society is now at a stage in history in which one
pulse is...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
A time for method and
methods for our time
Why futures literacy now? Becau...
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
Thank you
rielm@yahoo.com
Image: Sempe
How we anticipate matters –
it chan...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Education Futures: Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem?

274

Published on

Riel Miller's Keynote Speech at ESRC Education Futures conference, Open University, 17th May 2011

Published in: Education, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
274
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • Education Futures: Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem?Two premises: 1) Distinguishing endogenous systemic change from exogenous requires not only taking a specific point-of-view but that such a point-of-view be created (invented) in the first place. 2) From the vantage point of taking human systems as a subject learning may be considered a trans-historical attribute while education is a historically specific form and organization of learning. Starting from these two premises I will explore three topics. First what is the future and what is an ontologically grounded anticipatory systems approach to ‘using the future’. Second how a rigorously imagined story of the future can be used to reveal systemic boundaries and relationships using the example of the end of schooling in a Learning Intensive Society. And Third, what are the implications of the preceding discussion for Education Futures: Leadership and Practice.
  • Two premises: 1) Distinguishing endogenous systemic change from exogenous requires not only taking a specific point-of-view but that such a point-of-view be created (invented) in the first place. Use the future. But to use the future you must first know what it is. 2) From the vantage point of taking human systems as a subject learning may be considered a trans-historical attribute while education is a historically specific form and organization of learning. How to locate or situate education as it is organized today in its systemic context and bring into play the extra systemic potential of the present – in other words what is emergent.http://www.fractals.macrowellness.com/Site%20fractal%20images/Gallery%202_p2/2007-01-06_var1_a5.jpg http://www.historycooperative.org/journals/sia/32.2/images/fahlman_fig05b.jpg
  • Bruegel the Elder, 1559, Staatliche Museen zu Berlin - Gemaldegalerie, Berlin Link: http://www.ibiblio.org/wm/paint/auth/bruegel/proverbs.jpg
  • Bruegel the Elder, 1559, Staatliche Museen zu Berlin - Gemaldegalerie, Berlin Link: http://www.ibiblio.org/wm/paint/auth/bruegel/proverbs.jpg
  • http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2010-11/02/printed-carIntroduced in Las Vegas at the A prototype for an electric vehicle -- code named Urbee -- is the first to have its entire body built with a 3D printer.Stratasys and Winnipeg engineering group Kor Ecologic have partnered to create the electric/liquid fuel hybrid, which can deliver more than 200 miles per gallon on the motorway and 100 miles per gallon in the city.The two-passenger hybrid aims to be fuel efficient, easy to repair, safe to drive and inexpensive to own.All exterior components -- including the glass panel prototypes -- were created using Dimension 3D Printers and Fortus 3D Production Systems at Stratasys' digital manufacturing service -- RedEye on Demand.
  • Transcript of "Education Futures: Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem?"

    1. 1. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Artist: Heyko Stoeber Education Futures: Part of the Solution or Part of the Problem?------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Riel Miller EDUCATIONAL FUTURES Leadership and Practice The Open University, Milton Keynes, May 17,
    2. 2. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Two Big Changes Fundamental indeterminacy and the creativity of the universe Heterarchy and the Learning Intensive Society murmuration 1. In the way we think about the world. 2. In the way we organize the world.
    3. 3. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 1. Embracing Complexity: Changing the way we use the future Photo credit: Mark Schacter ©
    4. 4. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 The End of Certainty … we are now able to include probabilities in the formulation of the basic laws of physics. Once this is done, Newtonian determinism fails; the future is no longer determined by the Mankind is at a turning point, the beginning of a new rationality in which science is no longer identified with certitude and probability with ignorance. … science is no longer limited to idealized and simplified situations but reflects the complexity of the real world, a science that views us and our creativity as part of a fundamental trend present at all levels of nature. Ilya Prigogine, The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos and the New Laws of Nature
    5. 5. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 The possible is not in the future it is in the past. “We must resign ourselves to the inevitable: it is the real which makes itself possible, and not the possible which becomes real. But the truth is that philosophy has never frankly admitted this continuous creation of unforeseeable novelty.” Henri Bergson, The Creative Mind
    6. 6. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Caught in the Probabilistic Stance: Probable, Possible, Plausible
    7. 7. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
    8. 8. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 What difference does it make? After all everyday life goes on. So why bother? • It changes what we see. • It changes what we imagine. • It changes what we resist. • It changes what we preserve. • It changes how we preserve what we want to preserve. • It changes the conditions of change.
    9. 9. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Then what? If we accept this ontological starting point – how to make it practical? A. Take an anticipatory systems perspective that encompasses both animate and inanimate anticipation. B. Distinguish the three ontological dimensions of the potential of the present – three ways of imagining the future and the different methods that are related to each (ontology- epistemology linked). C. Learning processes that use collective intelligence – action research, reframing, and narrative capacity to question anticipatory assumptions – embracing complexity,
    10. 10. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 What is Futures Literacy?
    11. 11. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Futures Literacy: ambient strategic thinking Futures Literacy is the capacity to tell anticipatory stories using rigorous imagining based on sharing depth of knowledge from across the community. FL is a way of internalizing the constant development of our understanding of the potential of the emergent present and of changing anticipatory assumptions.
    12. 12. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 A. Anticipatory Systems
    13. 13. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
    14. 14. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Anticipatory Systems View S : object system M : model of S E : effector system Source: Robert Rosen, Anticipatory Systems: Philosophical, Mathematical, & Methodological Foundations., Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1985. Slide by A. H. Louie, Mathematical Biologist
    15. 15. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 “The main difference between forecasting and scenarios on the one hand, and anticipation on the other, is that the latter is a property of the system, intrinsic to its functioning, while the former are cognitive strategies that a system A develops in order to understand the future of some other system B (of which A may or may not be a component element). … The theory of anticipatory systems can therefore be seen as comprising both first- and third-person information.”
    16. 16. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 B. Three dimensions of the potential of the present
    17. 17. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
    18. 18. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Contingency futures: winning the lottery
    19. 19. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Optimization Futures: Chess, Farming, Assembly Line • Non-complex goal, known in advance and fixed • Rules are given in advance and fixed • Resources are given in advance
    20. 20. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Exploratory futures: imagining the potential of the present
    21. 21. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
    22. 22. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 C. Hybrid Strategic Scenario Method Rigorous imagining – developing analytically rich and imaginative stories of a functioning society as a way to question our
    23. 23. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Futures Literacy: Decision Making Capacity Using the Future for Knowledge Creation, Discovery and Communication Narrative Capacity Capacity to Reframe Collective Intelligence(interactive sense making)
    24. 24. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Futures Literacy in Practice • Level 1 futures literacy –Temporal awareness, values, expectations • Level 2 futures literacy –Rigorous imagining • Level 3 futures literacy –Strategic scenarios
    25. 25. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Anticipatory Methods: Context Makes a Difference ExplorationComplex Simple Close d Ope n Optimization (chess game) Aligning Anticipatory Contexts and Systems: Embracing Complexity – Use Futures Literacy
    26. 26. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 2. The Learning Intensive Society Scenario – A Level 2 Model Technology Economy Governance Society Scale of the change: • Incremental radicalism transforms everyday life • Within one or two generations • Disrupts most institutions • Alters culture & values Attributes of the model: • Descriptive variables • Not limited by how it is done • Not causal • Not path • Imagining possibilities
    27. 27. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Industrial (goods & services, public & private) Craft/Creative Household Agriculture Agricultura l Industrial Society Learning Intensiv Compositional Transformation Share of total wealth creation by source
    28. 28. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Learning in every day life is more intense if, in daily life, over a lifetime, people generate (flow) and accumulate (stock) more: – know-how – know-who – know-what – know-why
    29. 29. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Greater Learning Intensity of Daily Life Source: Riel Miller, XperidoX Futures Consulting; rielm@yahoo.com Average intensity of know-what Average intensity of know-how Average intensity of know-who Average intensity of know-why (decision making capacity) Agricultural Society Industrial Society Learning Society
    30. 30. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Moving to the Micro-Level: Complex societal evolution • Economic • Social • Governanc e Photo credit: Mark Schacter, www.luxetveritas.ca
    31. 31. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Systemic Economic Transformation: Changes What and How We Produce “Next stage” of market economy – beyond mass-production and mass- consumption • Unique creation – what is value? • How do we organize value creation? • Predominant type of economic activity • Scope of transaction systems
    32. 32. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Unique creation Low learning intensity High learning intensity Mass- production Creating wealth – changing sources of value-added Mass-era worker and consumer Empowered team-worker, informed shopper Artist/resear cher/learner Beyond the dualism of supply & demand
    33. 33. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Teasing the Imagination: Tools for Unique Creation
    34. 34. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
    35. 35. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
    36. 36. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
    37. 37. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 First car produced using a “desk-top factory”
    38. 38. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Industrial Era Sequential Production, Consumption, Resource Deployment Process Supply Demand Allocation Supply Demand Allocation Repeat cycle
    39. 39. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Conception Management Execution
    40. 40. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
    41. 41. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Starlings Flying in a Flock Imagine Clouds of Unique Creation Flows of Collaboration and Experience Local and Global, Multiple Dynamic Communities - Heterarchical Murmuration
    42. 42. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Describing Social Dimensions of the LIS • Attributes of identity: – sources – structure – dynamics • Patterns of social status - affiliation • Ecology of culture - capacity to be free Social dynamism Towards greater heterogeneity
    43. 43. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Hetero- geneous/small Homo- geneous /large Decisions - what, where, when, with whom, how Less choice More choice Scale of social affiliation/i dentity Identity & choice Mass-era Learning Intensive Society Beyond individual vs collective: banal
    44. 44. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Describing Governance Dimensions of the LIS Capacity to make & implement decisions in all areas of activity Quality of decision making: • Extent to which best information is used • Transparency of the network • Extent of opportunties to experiment • Knowing how to learn Dynamic Governance Towards greater responsibility
    45. 45. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Governance: capacity to make decisions Experimentation & learning Transparency & access to information Limited & fragmented Extensive & unified Mass-era Learning Intensive Society Limited Continuous Capacity for reframing and sense making:
    46. 46. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Less manageable – less clarity of goal More reflexivity More manageable – more clarity of goal Less reflexivity Greater freedom and ambiguity - spontaneity Regime 1 (Agriculture) Regime 2 (Industrial) Regime 3 (Learning society) A changing context for knowledge creation New conditions for education leadership and Different contexts and times?
    47. 47. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 1 – More university graduates does not increase wealth nor lead to “greater competitive” advantage Why? Three sets of changes: A. The preponderant source of wealth is no longer industrial (tangible or intangible). B. The primary source of productivity increases is learning by doing, i.e. experience that allows for refinement of taste (self-knowledge) C. Unique creation is local, ideas are global and tangibles are cheap
    48. 48. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Changing Composition of Output 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Time PercentageShare Industrial products Innovation (S&T/R&D) Personal products Creativity (Refinement of taste)
    49. 49. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 2 – Reducing classroom schooling helps to avoid fundamentalism Functions of Industrial School • Custody: keeping pupils safe and secure (99%) • Behavioural rules: instilling punctuality, obedience, respect for hierarchy (95%) • Cognitive development: literacy, numeracy, test scores (?) • Socialisation: internalisation of specific values towards civic life (?) • Screening and sorting: reproduces (legitimately) socio-economic differences (95%)
    50. 50. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Knowledge Creation and Destruction: Remembering, forgetting and inventing Living knowledge (stock) Discovery (flow) Public sector Preservation Net new Private sector Preservation Net new Cover it all Non-institutional Source: Etienne Wegner
    51. 51. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 3 – The wealthiest societies have the highest average age The productivity of unique creation and the quality of decision making capacity both increase, all other things being equal, with experience and better information – this is the wisdom economy – the know why society.
    52. 52. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Transformation “Society is now at a stage in history in which one pulse is ending and another beginning. The immense destruction that a new pulse signals is both frightening and creative. It raises fundamental questions about transformation. The only way to approach such a period, in which uncertainty is very large and one cannot predict what the future holds, is not to predict, but to experiment and act inventively and exuberantly via diverse adventures in living.” C.S. “Buzz” Hollings, “Coping with Transformational Change”, Options, IIASA, Summer 2010
    53. 53. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011
    54. 54. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 A time for method and methods for our time Why futures literacy now? Because a futures literate society can use: – diversification, imagination and inter- dependency to • embrace spontaneity, experimentation & complexity • without being overwhelmed by – fear of the risks (perception) – failure (reality of risk) • in order to inspire aspirations consistent
    55. 55. Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2011 Thank you rielm@yahoo.com Image: Sempe How we anticipate matters – it changes the present
    1. A particular slide catching your eye?

      Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

    ×