My Wife “ Really? An orgasm slide? ﬔose people had better not think that’s me in the picture... Image Source Russ Unger
Dr. Steve Julius “ With a bit of training and through some basic brain-stretching exercises, we can be reflective. We can slow down and find alternative solutions. Image Source Steve’s Son Max
Business is from Mars, Design from VenusDeductive/Inductive Reasoning Abductive Reasoning“Traditional firms utilize and reward the use of “Designers value highly a third type of logic:two kinds of logic. ﬔe first, inductive, entails abductive reasoning. Abductive reasoning, asproving through observation that something described by Darden professor Jeanne Liedtka,actually works. ﬔe second, deductive, involves embraces the logic of what might be.proving -- through reasoning from principles --that something must be.” ﬔis style of thinking is critical to the creative process.” http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/aug2005/di20050803_823317.htm
Designers can make great leaps forward
But the business folks can be left behindCritical thinking can be used to build a bridge between two types of thinking,connecting the dots
Critical thinking can also help you with their ideasHow many have you thought about a client or a boss “ﬔat’s amoronic idea”Can you build a bridge to their goal?
Yes, and AND7
Step Back Think Organize Proceed ﬔe Inner Game of Stress: Outsmart Lifes Challenges and Fulfill Your Potential by W. Timothy Gallwey8
Tools for ThinkingClarification:Do I understand what you are saying?Understanding:Do I understand your thinkingContext:Do I understand the world we are acting in?Evidence:What tells me this is right?
For Clarification, try Active Listening 1. Repeat 2. Paraphrase 3. Extend
For Understanding, try Five WhysMy car will not start. (the problem) •Why? - ﬔe battery is dead. (first why) •Why? - ﬔe alternator is not functioning. (second why) •Why? - ﬔe alternator belt has broken. (third why) •Why? - ﬔe alternator belt was well beyond its useful service life and has never been replaced. (fourth why) •Why? - I have not been maintaining my car according to the recommended service schedule. (fih why, a root cause) •Why? - Replacement parts are not available because of the extreme age of my vehicle. (sixth why, optional footnote)
ContextA Little About Markets
One Word: Plastics
Why the one word? Opportunity Brand Completeness Blocking competition Raising money Curiosity
Is it worth doing? Three reality checks1. Size of Market2. Type of market3. Personality of market
REALITY CHECK #1: SIZE MATTERS TAM is not SAM
How Big Is The Opportunity? Total Available Market (TAM) • How many people would want/need the product? • How large is the market be Total Available Market (in $’s) if they all bought? (TAM) • How many units would that be? How Do I Find Out? • Industry Analysts – Gartner, Forrester • Wall Street Analysts – Goldman, Morgan
How Big Is My Slice? Served Available Market (SAM) • How many people need or can use product? • How many people have the money to Total Available Market buy the product Served Available Market (SAM) • How large would the market be (in (TAM) $’s) if they all bought? • Can you reach them? How Do I Find Out? • Talk to potential customers
Some Startups saw this. (SAM) Total Available Market (TAM)
Return on InvestmentAll your CEO cares about … •Returns (measurable changes) •Increased sales •Reduced costs •Achieving the mission (for a non-profit) •Investments (cost of making change happen) •Keeping headcount low •Using resources more effectively •Only bringing in consultants if necessary
REALITY CHECK #2: DIFFERENT MARKETS HAVE DIFFERENT NEEDS What Business Will You Be In?
Three Types of Markets Existing Market Resegmented Market New Market Who Cares? Type of Market changes EVERYTHINGSales, marketing and business development differ radically by market type
Existing
Competitor
Competing in an Existing MarketFaster/BetterSomewhere Else
The 9X Effect John Gourville, Eager Sellers and Stony Buyers (2006)
Resegmented
Gap’s new entry
Competing By ResegmentingNiche = marketing/branding drivenCheaper = low end
New Market?
Same Product, Different Markets New New Existing Resegmented
New MarketCheaper/good enough can create anew class of product/customerInnovative/never existed before
Choose your idea wisely From Guy Kawasaki, Art of the Start stupid ﬔe holy grailYour ability toprovideuniqueproduct orservice bankrupt compete on price Value to customer
REALITY CHECK #3: MARKETS ARE PEOPLE
Customer Development Steven Gary Blank, Four Steps to the Ephinany Customer Customer Customer Company Discovery Validation Creation Building
Potential RoadmapWhat Would You Move? • Collaboration space • Speaker features/video • Reporting and advancedCapability Admin • Community features • E(mail) to attendees Version 1.0 • Un/Official events list • Network notifications • Basic Admin Soon Later Much Later 39
Evidence Research: Ethnography, user diaries, etc Testing: paper prototyping, ghetto testing, etc You’re good at this part!
Proceed Together ﬔe 3 Skills You Need to Succeed Product Business Tech
And Pray Idea Execution Timing Dumb Luck
So, Now What?
User / Browser Role Play Courtesy of Stephen Anderson