African Development Bank Group - Quaterly statistical review - First quarter 2013
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African Development Bank Group - Quaterly statistical review - First quarter 2013 Document Transcript

  • 1. Africa & Global Economic Trends Quarterly Statistical Review Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 Contents 1 | World Economy 1.1. | 1.2. | Economic growth & unemployment Inflation and financial developments 2 | Africa in the World Economy 2.1. | 2.2. 2.3. 2.4. 2.5. | | | | Economic growth Focus: Ghanaian economy Merchandise trade Commodity trends Inflation & money supply Financial indicators 3 | Data sources and descriptions At a glance A fter a weak ending to the year 2012, Continuing shocks emanating from the eurozone, the global economy picked up during including the aftermath of Cyprus’s recent sove- the first months of 2013, driven by reign debt crisis, have acted as a rein on the glo- resilience in emerging economies. The outlook bal recovery. World trade growth of 2.0% in 2012 for the first half of 2013 is for a return to slow but was down sharply compared to the 5.2% recor- steady growth in the United States and Canada, ded in 2011. Despite this, transmission to African and an improving outlook in Japan. In Europe a economies has been tempered by more intensive meaningful recovery is likely to take longer. financial and trade linkages between the continent and other economically dynamic regions. Generally, the performance of emerging economies remains much more robust than that The importance of countries such as China, Bra- of advanced countries, although with significant zil, and India as trading partners, export destina- variations across regions. Business confidence tions, and sources of investment in Africa is has generally improved since the start of the Global economy : business confidence (monthly develogrowing. Africa’s merchandise exports todata) year, supported by improvements in equity 42% of total exports, compared to 28% in 2005. 54,862 There has been a marked shift toward Asia as an 44,770 below 50, which is the borderline between 39,724 export destination, which accounted for 25% of 34,678 expansion and contraction. Steve Kayizzi-Mugerwa Director, Development Research Department, (EDRE) s.kayizzi-mugerwa@afdb.org +216 7110 2064 1,2 total export flows in 2011, compared to just 16% 08 09 10 11 12 13 49,816 -1,2 -2,5 -3,7 29,632 -5,0 in 2005. Global economy : business confidence (monthly data) 5,00 Global economy : business confidence (monthly data) 70,000 64,954 Africa : Merchandise exports by destination (shere in %) 2,50 15 10 12 3,75 59,908 9 6 6 1,25 54,862 49,816 Victor Murinde Director, African Development Institute (EADI) v.murinde@afdb.org +216 7110 2075 2,5 59,908 confidence weakened in March and remains well Charles Leyeka Lufumpa Director, Statistics Department (ESTA) c.lufumpa@afdb.org +216 7110 2175` 3,7 ping economies in 2011 accounted for almost 64,954 markets in particular. In the eurozone however, Mthuli Ncube Chief Economist & Vice President (ECON) m.ncube@afdb.org +216 7110 2062 5,0 70,000 0 44,770 3 -1,25 39,724 2 34,678 -2 -6 -3,75 29,632 08 09 10 11 12 13 -9 -5,00 2008 2009 2010 2012 2011 15 1 876,75 6 3 12 6,25 0 1 253,50 -3 This brief was prepared by Louis Kouakou (Statistician, ESTA1), Anouar Chaouch (Statistical Assistant, ESTA1) under 10 the supervision of Beejaye Kokil, (Manager, Economic & Social-6Statistics Division, ESTA.1). For access to development data on African countries, -9 please visit the AfDB Data Portal Web Site at: -12 http://intranet.afdb.org/statistics or the Statistics Least developed economies 8 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Department Web Site: www.afdb.org/statistics 6 2009 10,00 12 6,25 2,50 -12 2008 10,00 914 14 -6 2 500,00 12 10 0 -3 -2,50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2,50 630,25 7,00 -1,25 -5,00 30,00 18,75 15 1,7500000000000000 1,6250000000000018 7,50 14
  • 2. 2 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 ? World Economy Economic Growth ... ? 1.1 - World economy : economic growth & unemployment Gradual recovery in global economy Economic developments over the past 12 months have been bumpy, punctuated by slowing real activity in advanced economies, large swings in investor sentiment, amid periods of relative calm and improving prospects. Output inbusiness confidencehalf of data) Global economy : the second (monthly 2012 70,000 was constrained, buffeted by a noticeable slowdown in emerging markets and developing economies. However, the pace 64,954the global economy picked up in the first of 59,908 quarter of 2013 from the lows posted at 54,862 year-end 2012. Global activity is evolving at a three-speed pace. Growth is regaining 49,816 strong momentum in emerging economies; 44,770 Global economy : business confidence (monthly data) activity picking up substantially in the US, Canada and Japan; but the eurozone is 39,724 70,000 34,678 investor confidence and weak consumer experiencing stagnation, reflecting a lack 64,954 of 29,632 demand triggered by stringent austerity59,908 measures undertaken in 11 many 12 countries. 13 10 09 08 54,862 Taking these factors into account, global output is forecast to increase by 3.3% in 49,816 44,770 2013, driven mainly by 5.3% GDP growth in emerging and developing economies. Graph 1. Advanced economies / GDP growth (Quarterly data, % change on previous quarter) 5,00 2,50 6 1,25 0 2 5,00 -1,25 10 3,75 -2,50 -2 2,50 -3,75 6 1,25 -5,00 20 2 Global economy : business confidence (monthly data) -1,25 70,000 -2,50 15 64,954 -3,75 12 59,908 54,862 -5,00 9 49,816 6 44,770 3 39,724 0 15 34,678 -3 29,632 12 -6 9 -9 6 -12 3 34,678 -6 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 0 39,724 29,632 In the US, economic figures for the first quarter of 2013 were stronger than expec13 11 09 08 ted. Unemployment is falling gradually, consumer spending 10 increasing 12 is and sales of new and previously owned homes are performing well. Nonetheless, the federal government’s fiscal difficulties could weigh on growth later in the year, as an increase in payroll tax and cuts in federal spending start to take hold. Political gridlock in the US may be easing, which could open the way for more targeted measures to be introduced to support the recovery. The Federal Reserve has signaled that its most recent program of quantitative easing will not be withdrawn, but as the economy picks up, transitioning to a less accommodative policy stance could prove challenging. The IMF is forecasting real GDP growth of just below 2% for the US in 2013. 10 3,75 -2 2 500,00 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 -6 20 1 876,75 Graph 2. Emerging economies / GDP growth (Quarterly data, % change on same quarter of previous year 1 253,50 2 500,00 13 12 11 10 09 08 630,25 1 876,75 7,00 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 0 1 253,50 -3 -6 Lagging recovery in the eurozone 14 10,00 12 6,25 30,00 -12 1,5000000000000037 18,75 2,50 10,00 7,50 30,00 -1,25 6,25 -3,75 18,75 Graph 3. Harmonized unemployment rate (% of active 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 population) -5,00 2,50 1,3750000000000055 1,1250000000000092 1,0000000000000111 0,8750000000000129 15,000 0,7500000000000147 2013 2012 2011 2009 In Japan, a new government has prioritized a sizable fiscal 2010 stimulus package and a 9,375 more accommodative monetary policy as a way to spur economic growth and trade. Investors have watched the yen weaken by around 20% against the dollar since mid-2012. This has led to warnings by3,750 US Treasury that Japan should refrain the 15,000 from “competitive devaluation” of its currency. Such an approach renders Japanese -1,875 goods (e.g. automobiles) more attractive in the global marketplace compared to 9,375 goods from competitor nations such as South Korea. The WEO (April 2013) projects -7,500 growth of around 1.5% for Japan in 2013. 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 3,750 -1,25 12 150 -5,00 6,25 140 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 130 10 -15,00 110 8 100 150 90 140 80 6 130 70 120 60 110 15 10 -1,25 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 5 20 0 -5,00 15 -5 10 2013 2013 5 100 90 80 1,7500000000000000 70 1,6250000000000018 15,00 60 1,5000000000000037 2009 0 40 -5 2010 2011 2012 2013 30 1,3750000000000055 6,25 1,2500000000000074 20 40 1,1250000000000092 -2,50 1,0000000000000111 15,00 10 30 0,8750000000000129 -11,25 6,25 0,7500000000000147 2009 -20,00 -2,50 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 20 10 15,000 2008 20 2,50 -20,00 -7,500 7,50 -3,75 -11,25 -1,875 -15,00 10,00 14 120 In addition to declining manufacturing output, average unemployment in the euro1,2500000000000074 zone has hit 12%. Figures from the Eurostat show that the overall unemployment rate 1,7500000000000000 1,1250000000000092 in the 17-member currency union has1,6250000000000018 since February 2012, when the risen steeply 1,0000000000000111 1,5000000000000037 rate was 10.9%. Across the wider, 27-country EU the total number of jobless is a re0,8750000000000129 1,3750000000000055 0,7500000000000147 cord 26.3 million. In Greece, the youth unemployment rate is nearing 60% while in 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 1,2500000000000074 Spain it is 56%. 7,00 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 In the fourth quarter of 2012, GDP in the eurozone contracted by 0.6% after a decline of 0.1% in the previous quarter. The decrease in exports exerted a drag on 10 14 GDP growth, while domestic demand remained depressed. During the first quarter of 2013, both business and consumer 8confidence in the eurozone remained sub12 dued in the face of disappointing economic figures. Although the German economy showed positive growth in the first quarter, the downturn in the rest of the eurozone 6 2013 2012 2011 appears to be intensifying. According to10the 2009 only one of the big four economies IMF, 2010 – Germany – can expect to see positive growth in 2013, at just 0.6%. This is wea8 ker even than the forecast for the UK. France is expected to follow last year’s zero growth with a contraction of 0.1%, while Italy and Spain will see growth slump by 1,7500000000000000 around 1.5% in 2013. For the advanced 6countries of Europe as a whole, the WEO’s 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 1,6250000000000018 projected real GDP growth figure for 2013 has been revised downward to -0.3%. Fiscal stimulus measures in Japan 630,25 -9 9,375 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 3. Global economy : business confidence (monthly data) 49,816 2 44,770 -1,25 70,000 3,75 39,724 64,954 -2,50 59,908 -3,75 54,862 2,50 -2 49,816 -5,00 -6 34,678 08 12 11 10 09 1,25 Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 3 13 29,632 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 44,770 0 -1,25 39,724 -2,50 34,678 -3,75 29,632 15 13 12 11 10 09 08 12 2 -5,00 9 1 6 3 ? World Economy Inflation and financial developments ... ? 0 15 12 -3 1.2 - World economy : inflation and financial developments -6 5,00 Inflation generally subdued 10 08 09 1,25 10,00 0 4. Inflation / Consumer prices (monthly data, % change on same month of previous year) 9 0 1,7500000000000000 Buoyant financial markets 2,50 -1,25 150 2009 -6 -5,00 2013 2012 2011 2010 130 110 -12 100 1,7500000000000000 2008 630,25 150 7,00 2012 2011 2010 2009 140 90 1,6250000000000018 130 80 1,5000000000000037 70 1,3750000000000055 60 10,00 1,2500000000000074 2009 120 110 2013 2012 2011 2010 30,00 1,1250000000000092 18,75 0,8750000000000129 2,50 -5,00 2009 2013 2012 2011 2010 6,25 15,000 9,375 70 7,50 -3,75 15,0 -2,50 -15,00 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 90 60 0,7500000000000147 15,00 -1,25 100 80 6,25 1,0000000000000111 6,2 -11,25 Graph 6. Stock market indexes (January 2010 = 100) -2,5 -20,00 3,750 150 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 140 15 130 -1,875 120 110 -7,500 100 20 -11,2 -20,0 10 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 5 90 0 -5 60 The first quarter of 2013 saw investors return in large numbers to equity markets, as a reaction to low interest rates and a shift away from bonds. Equity markets continue to hit new highs, but the rally remains narrow and is mostly driven by the US and Japan. The S&P 500 is now just a few points off its all-time high. The remarkable re15,000 silience shown by the US economy to weather the fiscal cliff headwinds is boosting investors’ confidence in US equities,9,375 which are outperforming their global counterparts. 1 253,50 Graph 120 Exchange rates (US$ per national currency) 5. 2009 2013 2012 2011 2010 1 876,75 -9 0,7500000000000147 2009 2 500,00 -15,00 2 70 0,8750000000000129 2 -3,75 140 80 1,0000000000000111 7,50 -6 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 8 6 18,75 6,25 -3 1,6250000000000018 6 The US dollar continued appreciating against major currencies in March 2013, gai3,750 2013 2012 2011 2010 ning 3.0% on the euro and 1.7% against2009 Japanese yen. The appreciation of the the US dollar against the yen continued after the BoJ’s monetary stimulus announce-1,875 ment, which led to a monthly average parity of ¥94.752 per US dollar in March. Whether the dollar continues to strengthen against other currencies will depend on a -7,500 1,7500000000000000 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 number of other indicators, including the jobless numbers, in the months ahead. Re1,6250000000000018 cession in the eurozone has weakened the single currency, leading in March 2013 1,5000000000000037 to an average exchange rate of €1 = US$1.2963. The recession in Europe has les1,3750000000000055 sened the pressures that drive inflation – such as the demand for energy, while high 1,2500000000000074 unemployment has kept a lid on wage rises. 1,1250000000000092 2012 2011 2010 2009 6 3 30,00 10,00 12 -1,25 10 15 -5,00 12 -9 -12 -2 -3,75 14 2,50 -5,00 In most advanced economies, low underlying inflation rates allow headroom for monetary policy action to accelerate recovery. In the US, inflation eased in March to 6 2012 2011 2010 2009 1.5%, down from 2.0% in February; this was largely due to lower gasoline 2013 prices. Core inflation also edged down to 1.9% in March, from 2.0% in the previous month. In the eurozone, inflation fell marginally to 1.8% in the first quarter of 2013, compared to 2.3% in the fourth quarter of last year. -6 6 2 -1,25 6,25 -2,50 8 9,375 0 10 -3 2008 China posted a 2.1% inflation rate in March, down from a 10-month high 3.2% in February. February’s spike was caused by 1,5000000000000037food spending due to the Lunar increased 1,3750000000000055 New Year holiday. China’s leadership has targeted annual economic growth at 7.5% 1,2500000000000074 and inflation at 3.5%. The Bank of Japan has adopted an aggressive monetary sti1,1250000000000092 mulus approach, by committing to inject1,0000000000000111 1.4 trillion into the economy in about US$ less than two years. By so doing, it aims to end nearly two decades of stagnation 0,8750000000000129 14 and raise inflation to 2%. One measure it has taken is to abandon interest rates as 0,7500000000000147 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 a target and become the only major central bank to focus primarily on the monetary 12 base – the amount of cash in circulation. To achieve its target, the BoJ will purchase more government bonds and other types of assets. Moreover, the average maturity 10 on purchased securities will rise to seven years from the previous three years. The 15,000 announcement of this measure led to a 3% depreciation of the yen against the US 8 dollar while yields on the 10-year government bond plummeted to a record low. 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2,50 Graph 13 12 11 10 3 -12 3,75 34,678 29,632 6 -9 The slowdown in emerging economies during 2012 reflected slackening manufacturing output due to decreasing orders fromGlobal economy : economies, combined with advanced business confidence (monthly data) 70,000 domestic monetary policy tightening. The first quarter of 2013 saw a slowing of 64,954 China’s growth to 7.7%, missing forecasts for 8% year-on-year growth, with mining 59,908 54,862 14 stocks significantly hit. Nonetheless, with consumer demand resilient and exports re49,816 viving, most regions of Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to 44,770 12 maintain strong growth in 2013. 39,724 1 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 4 15,00 3 6,25 2 -2,50 3,750 1 -11,25 -1,875 -20,00 2009 -7,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 4. 4 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 World Economy ? World Economy Financial Indicators ... ? 1.3 - WORLD ECONOMY: Summary of world statistics Table 1 : Real GDP Growth Country (seasonally adjusted data) 2011 2012 2013 f 2011 Q.3 % change on previous year 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4 % change on previous quarter 1.8 2.2 1.9 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.1 -0.6 2.0 1.6 2.5 0.1 1.5 -0.2 -0.9 0.0 Eurozone 1.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 France 1.7 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 Germany 3.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.6 0.4 -2.4 -1.5 -0.1 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.2 -0.9 United States Japan Italy % change on previous year % change on same quarter of previous year China 9.4 7.8 8.0 9.7 9.1 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.9 India 7.7 4.0 5.7 7.2 5.6 4.7 4.0 3.4 3.9 Brazil 2.7 0.9 3.0 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.9 1.4 Russia 4.3 3.4 3.4 4.6 5.2 4.3 4.3 3.3 2.4 2011 Q.3 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4 2013 Q.1 Table 2 : Inflation (consumer prices, %) Country 2011 2012 % change on same quarter of previous year % change on previous year 3.2 2.1 3.8 3.3 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 Japan -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 China 5.4 2.6 6.3 4.6 3.8 2.9 1.9 2.1 India 8.9 9.3 9.2 8.4 7.2 10.1 9.8 10.1 United States 1.7 -0.6 2.4 11.7 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.8 France 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.1 Germany 2.5 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.5 Italy 2.9 3.3 2.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.4 2.6 1.9 2012 2011 Q.3 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4 2013 Q.1 Eurozone (HCP) Table 3 : Financial indicators Country 2011 Stock markets (end of period quotes) USA (S&P 500) 1257.6 1426.19 1131.42 1257.6 1408.47 1362.16 1440.67 1426.19 1569.19 Japan (Nikkei 225) 8455.4 10395.18 8700.29 8455.35 10083.56 9006.78 8870.16 10395.18 12397.91 U.K (FTSE 100) 5572.3 5897.8 5128.48 5572.28 5768.45 5571.15 5742.07 5897.81 6411.74 Europe (Eurotop) 2100.86 2324.9 1917.77 2100.86 2209.3 2114.33 2241.99 2324.9 2431.37 Hong Kong (HSI) 18434.4 22656.92 17592.41 18434.39 20555.59 19441.46 20840.38 22656.92 22299.63 56754 60952 52324 56754 64511 54355 59176 60952 56352 0.742 0.763 0.780 0.799 0.771 0.758 Brazil (BVSP) Exchange rates (national units per US-Dollar, period average) Euro 0.719 0.778 0.706 Yen 79.8 79.8 78.2 77.3 79.3 80.1 78.6 81.3 92.3 Yuan 6.46 6.31 6.42 6.34 6.31 6.31 6.33 6.30 6.28 Interest rates (% per annum, period average) United States 2.786 1.803 2.427 2.047 2.037 1.823 1.643 1.707 1.950 Japan 1.102 0.836 1.024 1.024 0.962 0.850 0.779 0.751 0.650 Eurozone 4.312 3.053 4.282 4.200 3.653 3.443 2.897 2.220 2.765 Chief Economist Complex, ECON 4
  • 5. 0 8 -1,25 49,816 44,770 39,724 -2,50 6 -3,75 34,678 5 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 29,632 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 09 08 10 2 -1,25 11 12 13 -2 -5,00 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 -5,00 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2 500,00 14 12 1,6250000000000018 13 9 1,5000000000000037 2.1 - AFRICA: Economic growth 6 1,3750000000000055 3 1,2500000000000074 0 1,1250000000000092 -3 1,0000000000000111 -6 Economic Growth ... ? 10 1 253,50 9 8 630,25 7 6 0,7500000000000147 -12 2009 2009 2008 Economic growth in Africa remained robust at 4.6% in 2012, despite the slowdown in the global recovery. Africa’s resilience is linked to continued momentum in emer14 ging economies, the continent’s attractiveness as an FDI destination, robust domestic demand, ongoing investment in infrastructure, and activation of new capacity 12 in the extractive sectors. This overall positive performance is though far from uniform across the continent, as domestic factors – including monetary policy tightening (Kenya and Uganda), protracted 10 labor disputes (South Africa), and political unrest (Egypt, Tunisia, Mali, and Guinea Bissau) – have impeded growth in a num8 ber of African countries. 6 The continent’s strong performance during 2012 was largely due to high commodity 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 prices and an increase in private capital flows, particularly to the natural resources sector, in the form of FDI. Exports grew strongly in the first half of the year; however a sharp deceleration of industrial commodities and oil exports occurred in the second half of 2012. Tourism, an important driver of growth for many countries, remained ro1,7500000000000000 1,6250000000000018 bust with a high level of arrivals in many of the traditional destinations, including 1,5000000000000037 South Africa, Kenya, and Madagascar. However, the North African countries of Tu1,3750000000000055 nisia and Egypt, whose economies also rely heavily on the sector, are struggling to 1,2500000000000074 win back holidaymakers – particularly tourists from the austerity-hit eurozone – some 1,1250000000000092 two years after the sociopolitical unrest of the Arab Spring erupted. 20102010 2011 30,00 9,375 18,75 3,750 7,50 -1,25 -1,875 -3,75 6,25 2,50 6, -2, -11, -20, -5,00 -7,500 2008 2010 2009 2009 2011 2010 2012 -15,00 2011 2013 2012 150 20 140 15 130 120 10 110 5 100 90 0 80 0,8750000000000129 South Africa's GDP growing at a lackluster pace -5 60 0,7500000000000147 2012 2009 2013 In South Africa, negative domestic factors reined in economic growth at a lackluster 2.5% in 2012, down from 3.5% in 2011. Despite forecasts of a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2012, real economic growth seasonally adjusted picked up by 15,000 0.5%, after a revision of the third quarter figures to roughly 0.3%, after industrial action in the mining sector had taken its toll. Mining sector real value added contrac9,375 ted further in the fourth quarter of 2012 as a number of gold and platinum mines lost output due to strike activity. By contrast, agricultural output rose as livestock 3,750 production held up fairly well over the period. 15, 15,000 70 2011 7,00 2013 2012 2011 2012 Graph 7. GDP growth for selected countries (quarterly data, % annual change ) 10,00 1,0000000000000111 2010 12 1 876,75 11 0,8750000000000129 -9 Strong growth overall, despite mixed country performances 2009 20 15 1,7500000000000000 15 ? Africa in the World Economy -6 2010 2011 2013 2012 Graph 8. Manufacturing production (monthly data, % annual change) 40 15,00 30 6,25 20 -2,50 10 -11,25 -1,875 The manufacturing sector in South Africa saw real output increase in the final quarter of 2012, supported by continued demand from emerging economies and im-7,500 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 proved competitiveness due to depreciation of the rand. However, indicators are more muted for the first quarter of 2013 – with a dip in consumer confidence and manufacturing output slowing. South Africa’s economy is forecast to grow at a muted 2.75% in 2013, owing to the slowdown in mining production and the weakness of demand in the eurozone, which is its main export market. -20,00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Pressures on fiscal and external stability in Tunisia and Egypt Tunisia shares many of the same problems as Egypt: a high level of unemployment particularly among the youth; food and oil subsidies that represent a drain on go5,00 Global economy : business confidence (monthly data) vernment finances; and sociopolitical fragility in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. 3,75 Major international ratings agencies have downgraded Tunisia and Egypt’s sove2,50 reign credit ratings with a negative outlook, citing acute political, economic, and se1,25 curity strains. Tunisia’s trade is particularly vulnerable to the eurozone crisis, as 0 recession-hit France and Italy represent its largest export markets. Egypt’s negotia-1,25 tions to secure an IMF loan of US$ 4.8 billion have stalled. -2,50 Graph 9. North Africa - GDP growth (quarterly data, % annual change ) 10 9000 6 6187 2 3375 -2 562 -3,75 08 13 12 11 10 09 However, the IMF has reached a framework agreement with Tunisia on a two-year, -5,00 2012 2009 2008 US$1.75 billion standby loan deal, which is awaiting final approval 2010 the2011 board from IMF of directors. The aim of the loan is to support the implementation of the government’s reform program to promote private investment, foster sustainable job-crea15 tion, reduce economic and social regional12disparities, and strengthen social policies 9 to protect the most vulnerable. 6 -2250 -6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2 500,00 6 1 876,75 4 1 253,50 3 630,25 1 3 0 -3 -6
  • 6. 6 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 5,00 Global economy : business confidence (monthly data) 10 9000,0 6 6187,5 3,75 2,50 1,25 0 ? Africa in the World Economy Global economy : business confidence (monthly data) 00 54 62 16 70 24 78 32 08 2.1 - AFRICA: Economic growth -2,50 3,75 Africa in the World Economy 13 12 11 10 -3,75 2,50 09 08 08 2 -1,25 5,00 -5,00 1,25 large currency depreciation, which-3 may give rise to higher 15 -6 12 inflation. Many of these economic characteristics are evident in Egypt and Tunisia and require the 9 -9 implementation of fiscal adjustment measures. -12 6 2 2010 2009 0000018 2009 0000037 0000055 0000074 0000092 0000000000 0000111 0000000018 0000129 0000000037 0000147 0000000055 0000000074 0000000092 0000000111 2013 Table 4 : Real GDP growth (%) Egypt 5 2009 2010 Ghana 2012 2011 Kenya 0 Mauritius 5 2011 Namibia 2008 Graph 11. West Africa : industrial production (quarterly 7,50 data, % annual change ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 30,00 10 18,75 6 -15,00 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2010 2012 2011 2011 Q.3 2012 20 6 -15,00 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 10 5 0 20 -5 15 12 11 10 09 08 07 10 5 0 4000 07 3000 2011 Q.4 2000 2012 Q.1 10 09 08 6.1 3.7 3.3 7.6 5.4 1.8 4.4 0.3 0.4 5.2 15.9 10.3 2009 15.0 -2,50 -11,25 -20,00 2010 7.9 2012 Q.2 4000 2011 2012 14.1 2013 4.4 4.7 3.8 4.9 3.2 3.5 3.3 4.0 2.2 3000 0 2000 5.3 2009 2.4 2010 5.4 2012 Q.4 5.0 2011 2012 5.3 4.9 2.8 2013 10.4 5.5 3.1 3.3 2008 3.2 4.3 2009 3.2 2010 4.9 2011 1000 0 9.1 7.0 3.5 4.6 … 3.7 2012 6.0 2.9 3.0 4.9 2012 Q.3 … 2.3 2008 11.5 2.9 2009 0.7 2010 2.0 4.3 7.8 6.5 7.4 7.7 6.2 6.3 6.5 8.3 8.0 11.9 8.4 7.0 9.4 6.9 8.7 Senegal 2.1 3.8 6.1 -1.7 2.0 3.1 3.7 2012 2011 7.0 Rwanda 5.2 2.3 3.5 2.5 3.2 3.0 2.4 2.8 2.6 Tanzania 6.4 6.9 5.9 6.5 7.1 6.9 6.5 … Tunisia -2.0 3.6 -1.5 -1.4 4.6 2.1 3.5 4.0 Uganda 4.8 6.6 5.8 -0.1 2.7 5.3 8.2 10.1 Chief Economist Complex, ECON 12 11 % change on 1000 quarter of previous year same 6,25 -20,00 18 10 -3,75 2013 22 14 7,50 Nigeria South Africa 14 -3,75 -11,25 Morocco 0 18 6,25 -2,50 Botswana 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 15 % change on previous year 15,00 0 0 7,00 -5 2009 Country 2008 22 18,75 60 0000000147 2012 15 630,25 30,00 2013 45 30 1 253,50 15,00 70 2011 0 60 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Africa’s oil-exporting countries should continue to perform well, although expectaAfrica’s oil-exporting countries should110 continue to perform well, tions need to be tempered on account of weakening globalaccount ofgrowth, which although expectations need to be 100 tempered on economic is depressing oilglobal economic growth, 90 150for the first quarter 2013 indicate that weakening prices. Oil output estimates which is depressing oil prices. oil output estimates for OPEC members 2013 indicate 80 total crude Oil production in the four the first quarter (Algeria, Angola, Libya, and 140 that total crude oil production in 70 Nigeria) is roughly stabilizing. Recent falls the four OPEC members Brent crude in130 price of oil have seen the (Algeria, Angola, Libya, and Nigeria) is roughly stabilizing. 60 120 dropping below US$ 100 per barrel for theseen time since July 2011 2012 and 2013 2012 2010 Recent falls in the price of oil have first 2009 Brent crude dropping West Texas 110 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Intermediate down to US$88.3 for the first time since July 2012 9% in the first half below US$ 100 per barrel per barrel. This represents a fall of and 100 West Texas Intermediate down to US$88.3 OPEC may cut of April 2013 alone. Some forecasters believe that per barrel. Thisproduction to 90 represents a fall of 9% in the first half of April 2013 alone. 80 shore up oil prices, although growth in oil demand cutlikely to continue from China. is production to Some forecasters believe that OPEC may 2010 15 1 876,75 7,00 2012 2011 120 2009 30 1 253,50 2 500,00 630,25 -5,00 Ghana’s economy during 2011-2012 is discussed in the Focus 2013 2012 2011 130 2009 2012 2011 2010 section below. 0000000129 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Nigeria, Africa’s main oil producer, saw its GDP growth increase to 7.0% in the fourth Nigeria, Africa’s main oil producer, saw quarter of 2012, up half a percent from 10,00 itsthe third quarter. Severe floods in the 6.5% in GDP growth increase to 7.0% in the fourth quarter of 2012, up half a percent from -1,25 country inin the third quarter. deaths of 363 people and displaced 2.1 million, with 6.5% mid-2012 led to the Severe floods in the country in mid6,25 major impacts not only to affected people and displaced 2.1 infrastructure and the 2012 led to the deaths of 363 populations, but also to million, -5,00 with major whole. However, the implementation of power sector reform and reimpacts not only to affected populations, but also to 2013 2012 2011 2010 economy as a 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 infrastructure and the economy 2,50 a whole. as bound after the floods are expected toreform growth in However, theis now the seboost and rebound after the 2013. Ghana implementation of power sector cond biggest oil-producer in the continent after Nigeria, supplanting Angola in the floods are expected to boost growth in 2013. Ghana is now the -1,25 second biggest oil-producer in economy during 2011-2012 is rankings. The dramatic rise of Ghana’sthe150 continent after Nigeria, discussed in supplanting Angola in the rankings. The dramatic rise of the Focus section below. 140 2010 -2250,0 45 -6 1 876,75 trend, reaching 5.2% in the fourth quarter, up from 3.7% in the previous quarter. 2,50 0000000 562,5 60 -2 2 500,00 Steady In Namibia, growthgrowth in the fourth quarter of 2012 accelerated by 4.3% compaGDP in oil exporters 0 red In 0.7% in the previous quarter. This rebound was brought about by Agriculture, to Namibia, GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 -3 accelerated by 4.3% compared to 0.7% in value added, which Mining and electricity, and water sectors -6real the previous quarter. increased by This rebound was brought about by Agriculture, Mining and 10,00 -9 21.1%, 47.7%,and water sectors real value added, which increased output, Seelectricity, and 17.2% respectively. Despite moderating industrial -12 negal’s21.1%, 47.7%, and 17.2%arespectively. Despite moderating fourth quarby GDP growth also showed bullish trend, reaching 5.2% in the 2011 2012 2010 2009 2008 6,25 ter, industrial output, Senegal’s GDP growth also showed a bullish up from 3.7% in the previous quarter. 009 3375,0 Graph 10. Crude oil production for Opec members (1000 barrel / day) Steady growth in oil exporters countries 2008 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Severe political and social unrest, such as that0 experienced by Arab Spring countries, -1,25 is generally accompanied by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes. 15 -2,50 The recovery is often sluggish leading to 12 increased unemployment, lower domestic accompanied by a sharp andArab Spring 11countries, fiscal deficits.9 With declining reserves, high external vulforeign investment,12and is generally -3,75 13 10 09 deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes. The recovery is -5,00 nerabilities sluggish to large currency depreciation, which2009 give rise to higher 2012 may 2010 in6 often can lead leading to increased unemployment, lower 2011 2008 domestic and foreign investment, 3 and fiscal deficits. With flation. Many of these economic characteristics are evident in Egypt and Tunisia and 0 declining reserves, high external vulnerabilities can lead to require the implementation of fiscal adjustment measures. 9000,0 562,5 6187,5 -2250,0 -6 2012 2011 2010 2009 3375,0 -2 6 2008 3 countries Economic Growth ... ? 10 6
  • 7. 2,50 6 6187,5 2 3375,0 -2 562,5 1,25 0 Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 7 -1,25 -2,50 -3,75 09 10 11 12 13 -5,00 2011 2010 2009 2008 2012 15 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2008 60 2 500,00 12 ? Africa in the World Economy -2250,0 -6 Focus (1/3) ... ? 9 3 0 1 876,75 45 1 253,50 Ghanaian economy 6 30 After a temporary slowdown in 2009, Ghana’s economy has witnessed a resurgence since 2010, expanding by 15% in 2011. De-6 15 630,25 cember 2010 marked the start of its oil production, which has delivered a massive boost to the economy. In recent years, exports -9 have also been buoyed by high cocoa and gold prices. Construction and service activities, which now account for 50% of GDP, have0 -12 7,00 2011 2009 2008 also performed well. Supported by fiscal tightening2010 measures and2012 currency adjustments introduced in 2009, the country’s ma2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 croeconomic fundamentals have further strengthened. In 2012, the economy expanded at a steady rate of 7.9%, amid rising fiscal and external imbalances. Momentum has continued into 2013, despite fading base effects from oil extraction. Fiscal and monetary policies have succeeded in reining in inflation to single digits. Meanwhile, much remains to be done to achieve solid macroecono10,00 22 30,00 mic stability and sustainable economic development for the long term. The discovery of oil is at the same time an opportunity and source of risk for Ghana. 6,25 18 18,75 -3 2,50 -1,25 10 -3,75 -5,00 The discovery of oil reserves, which positioned Ghana in second place after Nigeria 2013 2012 2011 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 in terms of oil production in Sub-Saharan Africa, has given a major boost to the nation’s growth prospects. The global economic crisis of 2008–2009 saw GDP growth decelerate from 8.4% in 2008 to 4% in 2009. Indeed, the economy registered an 150 average annual growth of 4.5% between 2001 and 2010. However, the country’s 140 GDP growth of 8.0% in 2010 and 15% in 2011 was not solely due to its traditional 130 major exports of gold and cocoa. It was the discovery and the start of oil extraction 120 110 at the Jubilee field that fueled the strong economic performance of 2011. 2010 14 7,50 Economic growth boosted by oil sector 6 -15,00 08 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Ghana : GDP growth and sectoral contributions (quarterly data, %) 2,00 20 1,75 15 1,50 10 1,25 5 100 In 2012, economic output is estimated to have expanded at a slower but steady 80 rate of 7.9%. As the contribution of industrial sector faded across 2012, due to the 70 60 vanishing of base drift effects from the oil sector, growth moderated from 9% in the 2011 2010 first quarter to just 6% in the last quarter 2009 2012. The growth 2012 of pattern2013 also illusis 2013 2012 2011 2010 Graph 10. Crude oil production for Opec members (1000 barrel / day) trated by the composite index of real economic activity, computed by Bank of Ghana. This corroborates the deceleration across 2012, but with a moderate upturn at the end of the year. Both business and consumer confidence indexes in January 2013 15,00 rebounded strongly, pointing to positive expectations and strengthening activity for the year ahead. 6,25 1,00 90 2009 Algeria Angola Libya Nigeria 2009 From the demand side, public and private consumption was stimulated by oil in-2,50 comes, the rise of the wages of public sector workers, and subsidies on fuel prices. 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 On the supply side, national income-11,25 boosted by high prices of raw materials – was especially oil, gold and cocoa, which increased export revenues. With the emer-20,00 gence of the oil industry, the value added of the industrial sector accounts for one2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 fourth of total GDP. 2012 2011 2010 Graph 11. West Africa : industrial production (quarterly data, % annual change ) Ghana’s exports of crude oil for the year 2012 surpassed cocoa in terms of value. The percentage share of total exports was: cocoa at 20.7%, oil at 23%; with gold still in first position at 54.2%. The contribution of the services sector to GDP growth remains decisive. According to Ghana Statistical Service, the services sector accounted for about 45.5% of GDP in 2012, thanks to the dynamism of the telecommunications and trade sectors. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 08 0 0,75 -5 09 08 07 10 12 11 0,50 140, 4000 120, 100, 3000 80, 61, 41, 2000 21, 1000 Ghana: Economic activity (monthly composite index) 0 400,0000 2008 2012 2011 2010 2009 333,0545 266,1090 199,1636 132,2181 65,2726 -1,6729 08 09 10 11 12 2, -17,
  • 8. -1,25 8 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 -5,00 2013 2012 2011 2010 10 -3,75 6 -15,00 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2,00 150 00 20 140 18 ? Africa in the World Economy 55 74 120 100 11 Ghanaian economy (continued) 60 2009 0,50 12 11 10 09 08 07 2013 2012 2011 2010 Ghana : Main exports (quarterly data, current US$) Despite the rise in oil exports, Ghana’s current account continues to post a high deficit, mainly due to the deterioration in the trade balance. The current account com15,00 ponent of the balance of payments amounted to -12.64% of GDP in 2012, according to the IMF. Total merchandise imports amounted to US$17.7 billion in 2012, an in6,25 crease of 12.1% over 2011. Non-oil imports grew by 13.9% to US$14.4 billion, while oil imports grew moderately by 5%. -2,50 4000 3000 2000 1000 These developments resulted in a trade deficit of US$4.2 billion in 2012, compared -11,25 with US$3.1 billion in 2011. Imports will continue to grow at a rapid pace in line with the dynamism of domestic demand and the oil sector requirements in capital goods. -20,00 2012 2011 2010 2009 Servicing the current 2012 account deficit will hinge on strong capital inflows,2013 including 2011 2010 2009 foreign direct investments in the oil sector and bond purchases by nonresident investors. The overall balance of payments therefore recorded a deficit of US$1.2 billion in 2012, reversing the surplus of US$546.5 million achieved in 2011. 08 0,75 -5 Current account 2012 2013 remains healthy 2009 balance 2011 2010 0 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Ghana : Public finance (millions of GH çedi) The balance of services and incomes will10also continue to weigh on the current account deficit, mainly through the repatriation of dividends by nonresident investors, in spite of a positive but modest contribution from current transfers. 6 00 75 50 9000,0 6187,5 25 10 Raising public deficit 0 25 6 ,50 2 9000,0 3375,0 -2 6187,5 562,5 Provisional data on Ghana’s public finances and the execution of the budget during 2012 showed that total revenue and grants increased by around 30%, compared to 2 -6 2012 2010 2009 2008 the previous year, on2011 account of higher revenue from petroleum taxes and an in2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 -2 crease of 20.6% on a year-on-year basis in value added tax collection. The improved performance of import duty was attributed to a number of factors including 2 500,00 -6 increased imports, improvements in import valuations, and the cedi depreciation du2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 ring the year. Government spending in 2012 was equivalent to 35.2% of GDP and 1 876,75 recorded 56% growth. On a year-on-year basis, recurrent expenditure grew by 64.6%. 2 500,00 1 253,50 ,75 ,00 3375,0 -2250,0 -2250,0 60 2008 45 30 2013 2012 2011 2010 0 22 7,50 18 14 7,50 -15,00 120 14 10 6 08 2012 2011 2010 2009 20 90 15 80 10 70 60 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2,00 1,50 2,00 1,25 5 1,75 1,00 0 1,50 0,75 -5 12 11 10 09 08 07 5 2011 2012 2013 1,25 0,50 13 12 11 10 09 08 1,00 0,75 -5 2010 13 12 11 10 09 1,75 0 2009 13 12 11 10 09 08 10 100 12 11 10 09 10 15 130 110 12 11 10 09 08 6 2008 20 140 15,00 22 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 -15,00 2013 2012 2011 2010 0 18 -3,75 150 009 15 08 18,75 -3,75 2009 30 15 18,75 30,00 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 45 Ghana : Monetary survey (monthly data, year on year change in %) 1 876,75 Furthermore, non-interest payments accounted for 76.3% of the recurrent expendi630,25 ture. These high non-interest payments were driven mainly by personnel emoluments 1 and 2009 transfers, which 2011 together accounted 253,50 7,00 for 82.3% and 71.9% of non-interest ex2012 2010 2012 2011 2010 2009 penditure and domestic revenues respectively. These developments resulted2013 a in 630,25 budget deficit equivalent to 12.0% of GDP against a target of 6.7% of GDP and compared to a deficit equivalent to 4.0 % of GDP in 2011. The deficit was financed 7,00 2012 2011 2010 2009 largely from domestic sources. Ghana’s 30,00 public debt rose to 46.0% of GDP in total 2009 2013 2012 2011 2010 December 2012 from 34.4% of GDP in December 2011. 2008 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 562,5 60 4000 07 08 09 10 11 12 1,25 1,00 0 70 47 Focus (2/3) ... ? 5 80 29 1,50 10 110 90 92 1,75 15 130 37 08 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 0,50 140,000 120,328 08 09 10 11 12 13
  • 9. 2 5 9000,0 -2250,0 -6 6 6187,5 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2 60 562,5 -2 ? Africa in the World Economy 2012 2011 2010 2009 45 1 876,75 Ghanaian economy (continued) 2012 2011 2010 2009 20081 253,50 630,25 2010 2011 2012 7,00 1 876,75 2011 2010 2009 2012 45 2013 In mid-2009, Ghana faced high inflationary pressures and a fall in the value of the cedi 1 253,50 against major currencies. This threatened public and external balances and required adjustment policies under the Extended Credit Facility granted by the IMF. Since 30,00 630,25 then, the situation has improved. However, after posting single-digit inflation in 2011 and 2012, the inflation rate rose to 10.4% in March 2013. Inflationary pressures in18,75 7,00 2012 2011 2009 clude2010 pass-through effect of a previous2009 the surge in producer prices, combined with 2013 2012 2011 2010 public sector wage increases, and a sharp increase in government domestic borro7,50 wing. 30,00 -3,75 At the start of 2013, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana maintai-15,00 ned its2011 policy rate at 15%, after successive rises introduced during 2012. The cen18,75 2013 2012 2010 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 tral bank’s Governor sees a broadly positive growth outlook for 2013, underpinned by private sector credit expansion, improved business and consumer sentiments 7,50 and increased oil production in the last quarter of 2012. The BoG may need to tigh20 ten its monetary policy to keep inflation below its target rate of 8.5%. -3,75 15 Pressures2012 exchange rate easing on 2013 2011 -15,00 2010 30 15 0 Ghana : Inflation and interest rate (monthly data, %) 15 22 0 18 22 18 10 6 5 The Bank of Ghana has mounted a defense of the cedi, consisting of aggressive in4000 terest rate hikes, as well as micro and0macro prudential measures. Exchange rate tensions are likely to persist in 2013 due to 3000 balance of payments deficit and unthe -5 12 11 08 07 certainties about the level of capital outflows of equities and 09 debt. 10 2013 2012 2011 2010 2,00 10 1,75 1,50 13 12 11 10 09 1,25 Ghana : Exchange rate of GH çedi 1,00 (local currency per US$, monthly average) 2,00 12 0,75 1,75 0,50 08 1,50 09 10 11 12 13 1,25 140,000 1,00 120,328 0,75 100,656 80,985 0,50 61,313 08 13 12 11 10 09 41,641 2000 0 21,969 5 4000 0 3000 09 13 14 5 2009 12 11 10 09 08 08 In 2012, the cumulative depreciation of the cedi for the year stood at 17.5%, com0 pared to 5% depreciation in 2011. The Ghanaian cedi has been put under pressure 20 -5 from both domestic and external factors. Domestic factors include the surge in im11 10 09 08 07 15 ports and2011 loose 2012 fiscal and monetary policies, while external factors include global 2013 2010 risk aversion which favors safe haven 10 currencies like the dollar. 12 11 10 09 08 14 2012 2011 2010 2009 12 11 10 09 08 6 2008 10 2012 2011 2010 2009 30 2008 60 Inflationary pressures emerge in the first quarter 2013 2009 Focus (3/3) ... ? -2250,0 -6 2 500,00 2008 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 3375,0 2 500,00 009 0 2012 2011 2010 2009 562,5 Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 9 -2 10 2008 3375,0 2009 2010 2011 2012 140,000 2,297 120,328 1000 -17,374 2008 100,656 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2012 2009 2010 2011 80,985 61,313 41,641 2000 21,969 2,297 1000 -17,374 2008 0 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012
  • 10. 2013 2012 6 -15,00 13 12 11 10 09 08 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 10 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 2,00 20 1,75 15 1,50 10 1,25 v ? Africa in the World Economy5 2.2 - AFRICA: Merchandise trade -5 2011 2012 2013 07 08 09 World trade volume forecast to grow by 3.3% in 2013 10 11 12 0,75 0,50 0 Trade among developing countries has seen a significant rise over the past decade 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 and now represents more than 50% of all developing country trade. Even excluding 2013 2012 exports to China, trade among developing countries has been very robust. East Asia, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa are the regions where this South–South trade grew fastest, though at a lower rate in countries that have preferential trade agreements with high-income economies. 13 12 11 10 09 08 Graph 12. World merchandise imports (Volume 2005Q1=100) 140,000 In 2012, world trade volume growth slumped to 2.0%, from 5.2% in 2011. Accor4000 ding to the WTO, world merchandise trade is expected to remain sluggish in 2013 at around 3.3%, as the economic slowdown in the eurozone and high unemployment 3000 dampen import demand. The abrupt deceleration of trade during 2011 and 2012 is bound up with the uneven global recovery, and the slowdown in advanced econo2000 mies. In 2012, exports of developing economies grew by 3.3%, while imports of these countries grew by 4.6%. This is a much stronger performance than that of the 1000 advanced economies, which saw their imports decline by 0.1%. 2011 Foreign Trade ... ? 1,00 0 120,328 100,656 80,985 61,313 41,641 21,969 2,297 -17,374 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Graph 13. Africa - Merchandise exports (Values in current US $, year to year % change) 60 4 000 50 Merchandise imports of African countries decelerated over the course of 2012 3 750 3 250 3 000 60 50 0 40 -10 30 2 750 10 -20 20 South Africa’s results for 2012 were less impressive, recording a significant fall of 11% in merchandise exports over the year. Notable decreases in inventories were registered in the mining and manufacturing sectors, with production setbacks partly met by running down stock levels. This contributed to a broadly unchanged volume of exports in the final quarter of the year, with a recovery in mining exports – especially iron ore and coal – countered by a decline in exports of manufactured goods. The volume of imports receded moderately in the final quarter of 2012, weighed down largely by lower imports of vehicles and transport equipment. 3 500 30 20 After seeing its exports shrink by 8.5% in 2011, Africa rebounded in 2012 to record the fastest export growth of any region, at 6.1%. Africa’s imports grew by 11.3%, making it the only region to record double-digit growth. 40 10 4 000500 2 3 750250 2 2 3 500000 1 3 250750 -30 1 3 000500 -40 2 750 0 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 -20 2 000 1 750 60 15,00 -30 -40 1 500 35 11,25 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Graph 14. Africa - Merchandise imports (Values in current 10 US $, year to year % change) 60 7,50 15,00 3,75 -15 However, the value of merchandise imports in South Africa increased over the period, largely due to a significant depreciation of the rand. This also underpinned an increase in the rand value of exports. Despite a moderate deterioration in the terms of trade, there was a slight narrowing of the trade deficit from the third to the fourth quarter. Simultaneously, the deficit on the services, income and current transfer account contracted marginally, causing the current account deficit to decrease to 6.5% of GDP and this approximate level is expected to be maintained in 2013. 2 500 2 250 -10 35 11,25 0 -40 -15 2010 2009 2008 10 2011 2012 7,50 3,75 300 275 35 250 -40 030 225 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 25 200 20 175 15 300 150 275 125 35 100 30 250 225 200 5 75 25 50 2011 2010 2009 2012 2013 175 20 10 125 5 100 0 75 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 0 -5 15 150 50 10 -5 140 130 2009 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2010 2011 2012 2013 15 12 9 6 15 3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 12 0 9 6 3
  • 11. Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 11 Africa in the World Economy ? Africa in the World Economy Foreign Trade ... ? 2.2 - AFRICA: Summary of trade statistics Africa in the World Economy Table 5 : Merchandise trade for selected African countries 2011 Q.1 Country (%) 2011 Q.2 2011 Q.3 2011 Q.4 2012 Q.1 2012 Q.2 2012 Q.3 2012 Q.4 % change on same quarter of previous year Exports Country Algeria 11.1 27.0 36.7 29.1 12.5 1.2 -3.9 -7.7 Mauritius 19.9 19.2 11.6 9.2 5.8 4.0 2.3 1.5 Morocco 30.6 27.0 19.3 11.4 29.1 1.6 12.5 -3.1 -2.4 -1.3 Nigeria Mauritius 38.3 19.9 43.9 19.2 35.2 11.6 23.6 9.2 6.7 5.8 0.9 4.0 -5.0 2.3 -5.8 1.5 Tanzania Morocco 33.0 30.6 24.4 27.0 11.8 19.3 8.5 11.4 13.4 1.6 19.1 -3.1 26.2 -2.4 21.6 -1.3 Tunisia Nigeria 14.4 38.3 12.9 43.9 9.3 35.2 1.9 23.6 -4.6 6.7 -7.1 0.9 -6.9 -5.0 -3.7 -5.8 Algeria 11.1 27.0 36.7 1.2 -3.9 -7.7 Imports Algeria Tunisia 19.9 14.4 20.0 12.9 16.4 9.3 4.9 1.9 -0.9 -4.6 -4.9 -7.1 1.6 -6.9 6.3 -3.7 Mauritius 16.3 20.2 15.7 12.7 9.7 5.4 -1.2 -3.8 Algeria Morocco 19.9 21.2 20.0 29.0 16.4 25.0 4.9 15.6 -0.9 5.4 -4.9 -1.6 1.6 -2.0 6.3 -1.8 Mauritius Nigeria 16.3 34.9 20.2 31.9 15.7 26.1 12.7 -0.1 9.7 -4.1 5.4 -11.4 -1.2 -8.8 -3.8 -2.1 Morocco Tanzania 21.2 23.3 29.0 33.9 25.0 45.3 15.6 41.6 5.4 25.1 -1.6 9.1 -2.0 2.4 -1.8 3.8 Nigeria Tunisia 34.9 4.2 31.9 8.5 26.1 10.8 -0.1 10.3 -4.1 4.5 -11.4 2.4 -8.8 -1.3 -2.1 0.6 23.3 33.9 45.3 41.6 25.1 9.1 2.4 3.8 Tanzania Tunisia Country Table 6 Algeria : Exports for selected African countries Country Angola 17183.9 2011 Q.1 Algeria 14077.2 Angola 14077.2 Benin Burkina Faso Benin Cameroon Burkina Faso Congo, Dem. Rep. Cameroon Congo, Dem. Congo, Rep. Rep. Cote d'Ivoire Congo, Rep. 17183.9 179.1 158.3 179.1 (current millions of US$, s.a) 18950.1 2011 Q.2 14301.4 18950.1 233.2 14301.4 191.1 233.2 18692.9 2011 Q.3 15007.0 18692.9 215.7 15007.0 214.4 215.7 18669.6 2011 Q.4 16112.2 18669.6 202.8 16112.2 215.6 202.8 15702.5 2012 Q.1 17686.2 15702.5 272.4 17686.2 214.6 272.4 13927.6 2012 Q.2 17865.1 13927.6 221.2 17865.1 244.0 221.2 13456.0 2012 Q.3 15066.1 13456.0 246.2 15066.1 182.1 246.2 13646.6 2012 Q.4 16041.4 13646.6 210.0 16041.4 156.8 210.0 1220.3 158.3 1528.4 191.1 1271.3 214.4 1240.3 215.6 1395.1 214.6 1317.9 244.0 1333.4 182.1 1795.8 156.8 1427.0 1220.3 1393.6 1528.4 1567.4 1271.3 1546.9 1240.3 1440.9 1395.1 1600.4 1317.9 1353.2 1333.4 1231.1 1795.8 2505.3 1427.0 2741.2 1393.6 3097.7 1567.4 2609.4 1546.9 3182.4 1440.9 2619.7 1600.4 2234.6 1353.2 2782.3 1231.1 2154.4 2505.3 2997.2 2741.2 3362.6 3097.7 2359.3 2609.4 2834.9 3182.4 2529.5 2619.7 2522.1 2234.6 2689.8 2782.3 Djibouti Cote d'Ivoire 115.0 2154.4 124.8 2997.2 130.7 3362.6 159.5 2359.3 137.8 2834.9 149.6 2529.5 146.9 2522.1 142.2 2689.8 Djibouti Egypt 7157.4 115.0 7824.7 124.8 7647.2 130.7 7841.6 159.5 7477.6 137.8 6759.1 149.6 6535.3 146.9 7834.2 142.2 Egypt Equatorial Guinea 7157.4 2639.1 7824.7 2762.8 7647.2 3214.5 7841.6 3045.0 7477.6 3418.0 6759.1 3270.0 6535.3 3664.3 7834.2 3784.6 Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia 2639.1 502.8 2762.8 517.7 3214.5 528.2 3045.0 498.9 3418.0 463.6 3270.0 512.1 3664.3 494.7 3784.6 519.8 Ethiopia Gabon 502.8 2558.7 517.7 2615.0 528.2 2376.8 498.9 2526.4 463.6 2614.9 512.1 2607.3 494.7 2716.5 519.8 2569.7 Gabon Ghana 2558.7 1729.2 2615.0 2194.5 2376.8 2147.2 2526.4 2484.1 2614.9 2170.2 2607.3 2001.3 2716.5 1915.4 2569.7 1847.4 Guinea 558.8 664.4 586.5 387.9 605.3 509.0 421.6 467.6 Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guinea-Bissau Libya Libya Madagascar Madagascar Mauritania Mauritania 1729.2 558.8 2194.5 664.4 2147.2 586.5 2484.1 387.9 2170.2 605.3 2001.3 509.0 1915.4 421.6 35.0 35.0 10013.4 49.9 49.9 1866.0 82.9 82.9 787.3 127.2 127.2 2980.0 53.5 53.5 9379.5 50.9 50.9 14016.1 46.0 46.0 16233.2 318.5 359.1 536.6 410.7 486.3 381.2 353.2 789.5 814.9 10013.4 318.5 809.0 809.0 1866.0 359.1 789.5 787.3 536.6 814.9 2980.0 410.7 633.3 633.3 9379.5 486.3 730.9 730.9 14016.1 381.2 806.9 806.9 16233.2 353.2 662.7 662.7 1847.4 467.6 32.7 32.7 16010.4 16010.4 499.2 499.2 641.7 641.7 Mauritius 560.2 563.4 552.1 501.8 561.4 576.9 542.4 627.2 Morocco 5200.6 5257.2 5484.2 5469.8 5485.4 5098.0 5136.2 5588.4 974.6 974.6 771.4 771.4 992.0 992.0 1014.2 1014.2 1021.6 1021.6 1016.5 1016.5 Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Mozambique Niger Niger Nigeria Nigeria Seychelles Seychelles South Africa Tunisia Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Zimbabwe Chief Economist Complex, ECON Chief Economist Complex, ECON 560.2 5200.6 954.5 954.5 114.6 114.6 563.4 5257.2 161.1 161.1 552.1 5484.2 94.3 94.3 501.8 5469.8 909.9 909.9 161.3 161.3 561.4 5485.4 200.5 200.5 576.9 5098.0 154.4 154.4 542.4 5136.2 84.9 84.9 627.2 5588.4 64.0 64.0 25978.2 25978.2 91.5 91.5 28366.3 28366.3 84.6 84.6 26964.4 26964.4 85.8 85.8 25077.9 25077.9 97.7 97.7 27882.1 27882.1 103.4 103.4 27828.9 27828.9 104.8 104.8 25040.9 25040.9 108.7 108.7 26423.3 26423.3 93.8 93.8 24135.1 24885.6 24507.3 24507.3 23382.5 23382.5 23869.1 23869.1 21844.6 21844.6 20835.7 20835.7 21250.8 21250.8 4245.4 4800.2 4526.0 4526.0 4238.0 4238.0 4361.2 4361.2 4218.7 4218.7 4062.5 4062.5 4494.6 4494.6 601.2 668.1 706.8 706.8 607.7 607.7 661.4 661.4 736.6 736.6 778.3 778.3 693.1 693.1 2034.8 1631.9 1548.0 1548.0 1461.3 1461.3 1337.0 1337.0 1709.5 1709.5 1372.4 1372.4 1496.2 1496.2 547.8 547.8 728.6 728.6 603.0 603.0 615.5 615.5 675.7 675.7 574.0 574.0 528.3 528.3 595.6 595.6 11 11
  • 12. 30 3 000 10 12 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 3 250 20 2 750 2 500 0 2 250 -10 2 000 -20 1 750 -30 1 500 60 -40 4 000 50 40 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 3 500 30 3 250 3 000 20 60 2 750 15,00 10 ? Africa in the World Economy Commodity Prices ... ? 0 2.3 - AFRICA: Commodity trends -10 35 -20 1 500 7,50 60 15,00 0 -40 2011 2010 2009 2008 35 2012 7,50 35 -15 275 3,75 30 250 -40 225 25 0 2009 2008 2010 2011 2012 Cereal prices have been moving in the opposite direction since the start of 2013, with 60 wheat retreating more than 10%. Global wheat production is expected to recover in 50 2013 though, after the major drought that hit eastern Europe in 2012. After mode40 rating at the end of 2012, corn prices have risen by more than 5% since the start of 30 2013. 20 2 10 125 300 5 100 275 35 75 250 30 50 225 -5 25 200 0 2009 2010 2011 2013 2012 175 150 5 0 75 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2 10 100 140 50 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 140 40 130 30 120 20 110 20 15 125 Downside pressures on industrial metal prices are largely associated with slower global economic growth, rising domestic production, and relatively high inventories. Combined with growing concerns over the Chinese economy, these developments had a dampening effect on industrial metal prices Gold prices decreased significantly during the first quarter of 2013. April 15 saw its biggest tumble in two years (to US$1,321 per ounce), compared to its high of US$ 1,921 in September 2011. Silver has also seen a drop of 11%. Various factors are at play here: the sell-off of gold reserves by Cyprus sending worrying signals, weaker economic data coming out of China, plus the US dollar’s surge. The drop in prices, despite the highly accommodative policies taken by many central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, raises some doubt about gold’s potential to maintain its upward trajectory of recent years. 20 15 150 Precious and industrial metals prices down in March and April 2 300 175 Fundamental factors are primarily responsible for the price retreat. Austerity measures in the eurozone have seen consumers cutting back on personal expenditure, including gasoline. Demand remains very low and the International Energy Agency has downgraded the global demand forecast for 2013. Also, the surge in U.S. production is putting the brakes on prices. 11,25 Graph 15. Commodity prices (indexes, 100=2005) 10 200 The energy index dropped by 4.1% in March, following an increase of 2.3% in the previous month. At the time of writing (mid-April 2013), prices have seen a marked decrease, with Brent crude below US$100 per barrel for the first time since July 2012 and West Texas intermediate down to US$88.3 per barrel. Both have fallen 9% in the first half of April. 2 3,75 -15 Crude oil futures fell on reduced refinery demand 2 250 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 During March 2013, prices for most commodities fell close to their December 2012 levels. Concerns over the slowdown in China’s economy, intensified by the announcement of new measures to curb the country’s real estate sector, hit base metal prices particularly hard. Raw material prices have also been hurt by the US dollar’s surge since the start of 2013. The IMF commodity price index was down in March 2013 by 3.7% on a monthly basis, following an increase of 1.6% recorded in February. 2 500 2 000 11,25 1 750 -30 10 -40 Commodity prices showing signs of a slowdown 2 3 750 15 -5 2009 2010 2011 2 2013 2012 12 9 Graph 16. Crude oil (US$ per barrel) 6 15 3 12 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 2013 9 2 6 3 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 2013 2 Graph 17. Cocoa beans (US$ / metric tonne) 15 4 000 3 750 12 3 500 3 250 9 3 000 2 750 10 0 Weak economic growth in several major economies is curbing demand for commo-10 dities. This, together with a supply -20 exceeds demand, should keep the lid on that commodity prices in the months to come. However, if global growth accelerates as -30 -40 expected at mid-year, prices could start to trend upward again. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2 500 6 2 250 2 000 3 1 750 1 500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2012 60 11,25 10 7,50 -15 3,75 2 15,00 35 0 28,227 23,338 18,448 13,558 8,669 3,779 0 -40 2008 300 2009 2010 2011 2012 -1,110 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -6,000
  • 13. Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 13 Africa in the World Economy ? Africa in the World Economy Commodity Prices ... ? 2.3 - AFRICA: Summary of commodity prices Table 7 : Commodity Prices Commodity 2011 2013 2012 Source : World Bank Jan. 2013 Feb. 2013 2012 /2011 Mar. 2013 Mar 2013 / Q1 2013 / Q4Q1 2013 / Q1 Feb 2013 2012 2012 % % % Energy Coal, Australia, $/mt 121.4 96.4 92.8 94.9 92.2 -20.7 7.4 -17.9 Crude oil, Brent, $/b 110.9 112.0 113.0 116.5 109.2 0.9 2.2 -4.8 Crude oil, WTI, $/b 95.1 94.2 94.7 95.3 92.9 -0.9 7.0 -8.3 Natural gas, Europe, $/mmbtu 10.5 11.5 11.9 11.8 11.9 9.1 0.9 2.8 Cocoa, c/kg 298.0 239.2 227.5 219.8 215.3 -19.7 -9.9 -5.6 Coffee, Arabica, c/kg 597.6 411.1 346.8 329.5 330.2 -31.2 -6.1 -31.1 Coffee, Robusta, c/kg 240.8 226.7 219.8 229.3 234.3 -5.8 3.8 2.6 Tea, Kokata auctions, c/kg 277.9 275.0 266.0 253.1 255.1 -1.0 -11.4 25.7 Tea, Mombasa auctions, c/kg 271.9 288.1 305.2 291.3 265.5 5.9 -4.2 7.7 Agriculture Beverages & oils Palm oil ($/mt) 1 125.4 999.3 841.0 863.0 854.0 -11.2 5.4 -23.0 Soybean oil ($/mt) 1 299.3 1 226.3 1 190.0 1 175.0 1 116.0 -5.6 0.2 -7.4 Grains Maize, $/mt 291.7 298.4 303.1 302.7 309.0 2.3 -3.8 9.8 Rice, Thailand, 5%, $/mt 543.0 563.0 564.2 563.0 559.0 3.7 0.7 3.6 Sorghum, $/mt 268.7 271.9 291.0 288.1 296.7 1.2 2.3 8.3 Wheat, US, SRW, $/mt 285.9 295.4 309.0 298.0 285.9 3.3 -11.8 14.9 1 124.7 1 099.7 1 095.6 1 112.4 937.0 -2.2 -4.9 -8.2 Beef, c/kg 968.0 984.0 928.7 923.2 937.0 1.7 -1.6 -11.7 Oranges, $/mt 404.2 414.2 430.7 428.0 422.7 2.5 1.9 0.6 1 537.4 1 558.3 1 919.0 1 884.0 1 802.0 1.4 5.2 43.8 891.1 868.0 739.2 883.6 907.0 -2.6 -2.2 9.4 484.8 390.5 607.5 451.4 360.5 610.3 465.6 334.1 612.9 466.9 319.7 586.4 436.2 313.8 575.6 -6.9 -7.7 0.5 0.7 -8.6 -3.3 -1.6 -13.6 -3.5 Cotton, A Index, c/kg 332.9 196.7 188.5 197.8 208.2 -40.9 9.5 -10.5 Rubber, Singapore, c/kg 482.3 337.7 330.4 318.6 297.6 -30.0 1.9 -18.1 DAP, $/mt 618.9 539.8 485.0 482.3 507.5 -12.8 -7.6 -4.8 Phosphate rock, $/mt 184.9 185.9 179.0 170.0 170.0 0.5 -6.5 -11.7 Aluminum, $/ton 2 401.4 2 023.3 2 037.8 2 053.6 1 909.6 -15.7 -0.1 -8.2 Copper, $/mt 8 828.2 7 962.3 8 047.4 8 060.9 7 645.6 -9.8 0.1 -4.8 Gold, $/toz 1 569.2 167.8 240.1 1 669.5 128.5 206.5 1 671.8 150.8 233.4 1 627.6 154.7 236.6 1 593.1 139.9 216.9 6.4 -23.4 -14.0 -5.1 22.8 4.0 -3.6 4.7 9.5 22 910.4 17 547.5 Other Food Bananas, EU, $/mt Sugar, EU, c/kg Sugar, world, c/kg Raw Materials Timber Logs, Cameroon, $/cum Plywood, c/sheets Sawnwood, Cameroon, $/cum Other Raw Materials Metals and Minerals Iron ore, c/dmtu Lead, c/kg 17 472.5 17 690.1 16 724.9 -23.4 1.8 -11.9 Silver, c/toz 3 522.4 3 113.7 3 106.2 3 032.9 2 879.1 -11.6 -7.8 -7.7 Tin, c/kg 2 605.4 2 112.6 2 454.6 2 421.2 2 329.7 -18.9 11.1 4.9 219.4 195.0 203.2 212.9 192.6 -11.1 3.9 0.2 1 719.5 1 550.8 1 638.9 1 674.6 1 583.0 -9.8 2.1 1.7 Nickel, $/mt Zinc, c/kg Platinum ($/troy oz) / slight (-/+) change Chief Economist Complex, ECON / moderate (-/+) change / large (-/+) change 13
  • 14. 14 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 60 40 3 500 2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation & money supply 30 20 2 500 0 Inflation easing, with notable exceptions 50 -20 -30 30 the After a continuous upward trend from 40 end of 2010 to mid-2012, inflation in Africa -40 30 20 2012 2011 2009 edged down in the latter part of 2012 20 this has continued 2010 2013. Although inand 2008 into 10 10 flation seems to have largely been0 contained in most African countries, there are a 0 -10 few notable exceptions such as Ghana,60 South Africa, and Tunisia, as detailed below. -10 -20 -30 15 2 000 3 750000 4 1 750 3 500750 3 1 500 3 3 250500 15 Many central banks in the continent -30 reacted to weakening inflation pressures and -40 -40 35 moderate growth by easing monetary 2008 2008 In2009 2009 2010 2010 weak 2011 20122012 policy. addition, the 2011 global environment encouraged many central banks to cut their policy rates, in an effort to inject 10 liquidity into real economy. Kenya and Uganda were among the most aggressive in 60 60 cutting policy rates in 2012. High inflation rates experienced during 2011 in these -15 countries, and also in Tanzania, have eased since the end of 2011, partly as a result 35 35 of favorable rains and as a result of more stringent monetary policies. In Kenya, where -40 monetary tightening had been deployed to rein in inflation, the2010 headline2011 inflation 2012 rate 10 2009 2008 10 increased slightly in February (4.5%) and March (4.1%), from a low of 3.3% in November 2012. In Tanzania, the annual -15 inflation rate for March 2013 declined to 9.8% -15 from 10.4% the previous month, with food inflation rate decreasing by one percen300 -40 tage point to 10.7% in March from 11.7%275 February. In Uganda, the annual headin 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 -40 line Inflation rate for March 2013 rose to 4.0% from 3.5% recorded in the previous 250 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 month. 225 200 300 In Namibia, inflation edged down to 6.2% in February and March, from 6.6% recor300 150 ded in January, as a result of slight drops250 the price of food and non-alcoholic bein 275 125 225 250 verages. 175 150 9 175 75 2Graph 2 500750 18. Africa - Inflation (monthly data, median values) 2 500 125 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 100 125 Although a disinflationary trend generally 75 prevailed across the continent, domestic 100 50 factors are fueling inflation in some countries (Ghana, South Africa, and Tunisia). Po2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 75 litical unrest is causing supply shortages in some North African countries (Tunisia, 50 Egypt), and this is driving up domestic food prices 2010 inching up inflation rates. In and 2013 2012 2011 2009 Egypt, the urban inflation rate has accelerated steeply over the past 4 months, from 140 130 4.7% in December 2012 to 7.6% in March 2013. 120 110 100 140 130 90 120 80 110 70 100 60 90 50 80 40 70 30 60 20 50 In Tunisia, in response to political turmoil and social protest, as well as declining world commodity prices in general, transition governments during 2011 and 2012 in140 creased food and fuel subsidies. They also increased public sector wages in res130 120 ponse to rising unemployment (officially at 17%) and poverty. However, maintaining 110 the subsidies has proved challenging100 the government, which fears a budget defor 90 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 80 ficit of around 6% in 2013. In response,40the authorities raised the price of state30 70 controlled milk in early 2012 and then60the20price of gasoline at the pumps by around 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 6.8%. In March 2013 the government 50 imposed a levy of 1% on salaries above 1,700 40 30 dinars ($1,075) per month to help fund remaining subsidies on fuel and food. The 20 withdrawal of some subsidies has driven up inflation to 6.5% in March 2013, with 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 food inflation hitting two digits and fuel prices rising by nearly 7%. 20 6 6 2 250 2 250 2 000 000 215,00 3 3 1 750 28,227 1 500 1 500 2009 11,252009 0 2013 2013 2012 2012 2011 2011 2010 2010 0 23,338 2009 2009 18,448 7,50 13,558 15,00 15,00 8,669 3,75 28,227 28,227 23,3383,779 11,25 11,25 7,50 23,338 0 -1,110 18,448 2009 7,50 2010 2011 18,448 2013 2012 13,558 -6,000 13,558 8,669 3,75 8,669 3,75 0 3,779 3,779 0 35 30 -1,110 2009 -6,000 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2013 2012 2011 2010 -1,110 25 Graph 19. Inflation in the Horn of Africa (monthly data, % change m/m-12) 20 35 35 30 30 25 20 150 0 9 3 2 750000 25 Rising inflationary pressures in some countries 50 200 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 3 3 000250 175 275 200 100 3 12 12 1 750 -20 225 6 2 250 4 000 60 40 9 3 000 2 750 -10 50 12 3 250 10 60 Inflation / Money Supply ... ? 3 750 15 10 5 20 15 10 -6,000 15 12 6 15 12 10 3 12 9 5 0 0 9 6 -5 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 5 3 6 -3 0 3 0 -3 -5 0 2009 2010 0 2013 2012 2011 -3 -5 15 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 50 40 12 15 Graph 20. Inflation : consumer prices (monthly data, % 9 change m/m-12) 12 15 6 50 30 40 50 30 9 40 12 6 3 20 30 9 3 0 10 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 6 20 0 0 3 15 9 15 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 10 0 0 2009 2010 2011 © AfDB 2012 - Design, ERCU/YAL ? Africa in the World Economy 15 4 000 50 20 10 0
  • 15. Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 15 60 3 750 40 50 3 000 10 4 000 2 750 ? Africa in the World Economy 0 40 -10 30 3 750 -20 20 10 20 30 40 60 35 3 500 3 250 3 000 -30 2 750 -40 2010 2009 2008 0 10 87,498 3 250 20 101,248 12 3 500 30 60 15 4 000 50 2011 2012 73,748 9 2 500 2 000 2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation & money supply 1 750 1 500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2012 2011 2010 18,750 59,999 5,000 2 250 7,50 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 32,499 3 0 Graph 21. Inflation : producer prices (manufacturing, monthly data, % change m/m-12) 28,227 23,338 25 Stagflation risk in South Africa ! 200 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2009 2013 2012 2011 2010 300 8,669 28,227 150 3,779 23,338 250 100 -1,110 18,448 200 -6,000 15 150 10 35 The SARB (South Africa Reserve Bank) has warned of the risk of stagflation, cha5 racterized by low growth and rising inflation. 30 Inflation in March 2013 rose to 6% – the 0 75 25 top end of the Reserve Bank’s target – after increasing by 5.9% in February. Slug-5 50 20 structural constraints2011 growth, a de2013 2012 gish 2009 global demand combined with domestic to 2010 2009 2013 2012 2011 2010 15 preciating rand, and above-inflation wage hikes have been contributory factors. In 10 regard to the monetary sector, credit growth trends have reflected monetary policy 5 and rising inflation. Private sector credit growth slowed to 7.9% in February 2012 0 from almost 10% in late 2012, while aggregate money supply accelerated to 7.7% 15 140 February from 5.2% growth in December -5 in 2012 and 6.7% in January 2013. 125 100 130 2009 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2012 2011 2010 2013 12 2009 2011 2010 2009 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 8,669 50 200 150 3,779 15 100 -1,110 12 9 20 175 300 200 -6,000 2012 2011 2010 2009 2009 250 13,558 13,558 2008 5,000 300 18,448 225 -40 18,750 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 After registering single-digit inflation rates for both 2011 and 2012, Ghana is seeing a recent rise caused by a delayed pass-through of increased producer prices com3,75 300 bined with public sector wage increases granted and a sharp increase in government 35 275 domestic borrowing (see Focus). 0 30 250 -15 2009 46,249 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 6 -40 2009 73,748 3 9 0 2 000 Similarly, core inflation measured by the CPI (excluding food and energy), exhibited 1 750 a steady upward trend during 2012 and persisted into 2013, triggered mainly by the 15,00 1 500 surge in commodity prices. This suggests that the pass-through effects of the pu2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 blic sector wages increase and rise in imported prices have yet to surface. Howe35 11,25 ver, Tunisian producer prices remained stable during the year. This reflects profit 10 margin cutting by domestic producers to 15,007,50 their competitiveness. In order to preserve address the country's fiscal and balance of payments deficits and create conditions -15 for a sustained recovery of the economy, the 3,75 central bank of Tunisia is maintaining a 11,25 tight monetary policy stance. 0 2008 46,249 87,498 Inflation / Money Supply ... ? 32,499 12 60 10 101,248 6 2 250 2 500 59,999 15 6,777 5,814 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Graph 22. South Africa : money and credits (monthly data, 6 % change on previous year) 15 3 50 4,851 200 3,889 6,777 2,926 12 0 5,814 1,963 9 -3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 6 4,851 1,000 3,889 3 2,926 0 -3 400 1,963 50 40 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 350 1,000 300 9 30 250 6 20 200 15 3 5010 12 0 40 0 150 400 100 350 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 50 300 9 30 6 20 200 3 10 0 0 20 250 150 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 50 20
  • 16. 16 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 Africa in the World Economy ? Africa in the World Economy Inflation ... ? 2.4 - AFRICA: Inflation summary Table 9 : Inflation on consumer prices % change on same quarter of previous year (in %) 2011 2012 2013 Country Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Algeria Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo, Rep. Côte d'Ivoire Djibouti Egypt Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia, The Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Kenya Lesotho Liberia Libya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Sao Tome and Principe Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania, United Rep. Togo Tunisia Uganda Zambia 4.0 14.6 2.1 8.0 2.0 8.0 2.9 5.2 2.4 -3.2 1.5 1.9 6.6 4.7 12.0 7.3 33.9 1.5 5.5 8.8 22.6 6.6 13.2 4.4 8.0 12.1 10.0 7.0 2.8 5.4 6.9 0.2 11.2 5.1 2.5 11.3 5.1 16.9 4.5 2.0 17.0 4.6 16.6 6.7 9.7 4.8 3.1 15.3 6.2 5.3 13.2 3.5 8.4 3.2 10.6 3.2 4.7 -0.1 -8.1 -0.2 0.2 4.8 4.0 9.1 6.8 40.3 2.7 4.2 8.4 21.7 5.4 16.4 5.4 9.1 ... 8.8 7.6 2.1 5.6 6.6 1.6 7.7 5.2 2.9 10.0 7.1 14.5 2.9 2.8 16.4 5.5 ... 6.1 14.5 3.3 3.7 22.8 6.6 5.3 11.3 1.9 9.1 4.9 15.0 2.8 4.1 0.3 -6.0 0.6 1.7 3.1 5.2 8.5 6.2 38.3 1.3 4.3 8.6 20.2 3.5 19.1 6.9 10.7 ... 7.5 9.0 4.2 5.7 6.0 0.4 7.2 6.5 2.8 10.4 7.9 12.5 2.6 4.8 17.1 6.0 ... 7.0 18.9 2.4 4.6 28.8 6.4 9.0 11.3 6.5 8.3 3.3 22.7 2.5 2.5 5.8 -3.7 3.2 -1.2 1.6 7.8 8.9 6.0 33.4 3.1 4.0 8.6 17.8 2.3 17.1 7.3 9.2 ... 5.3 10.8 5.4 5.7 4.2 0.5 3.6 7.0 -0.3 12.0 8.0 11.0 2.1 6.1 15.6 6.1 ... 9.0 19.5 2.1 5.4 24.2 6.3 9.5 10.5 6.7 7.5 3.8 20.9 3.2 1.5 4.7 6.6 4.0 0.2 -1.4 8.0 8.1 6.0 25.4 2.5 4.0 9.3 15.5 1.9 11.8 6.4 7.2 ... 6.9 16.6 7.3 5.7 3.8 1.4 2.4 6.0 1.0 12.8 7.0 9.2 1.0 8.0 12.9 5.8 ... 9.0 18.1 2.4 5.6 18.9 6.5 8.0 9.9 6.5 7.1 4.7 15.9 2.9 2.3 4.6 20.9 19.1 8.0 2.0 7.8 6.4 ... 20.3 2.7 4.3 9.5 14.7 2.1 6.3 5.6 4.5 ... 6.7 25.2 5.6 4.9 3.9 1.3 2.0 6.2 0.5 12.0 5.7 11.4 0.9 7.8 11.8 5.1 ... 9.4 14.6 2.6 5.7 10.6 6.4 9.1 9.5 7.4 7.3 3.4 13.2 3.2 3.9 ... 17.6 23.5 8.7 3.1 7.9 5.2 ... ... 2.3 ... 9.2 13.1 2.1 3.5 5.2 6.6 ... 6.6 32.8 3.5 ... 3.5 2.0 2.1 7.0 0.6 12.0 4.6 11.0 1.7 6.5 11.4 5.6 ... 10.1 12.3 3.5 5.4 4.9 ... 6.6 9.0 2.5 7.5 2.5 7.6 3.9 3.4 ... ... 19.4 7.1 3.4 ... 7.4 ... ... 1.4 ... 9.7 ... ... 4.1 4.9 ... ... 5.6 ... -0.2 ... 3.3 2.3 ... 6.4 1.5 9.2 5.3 10.4 0.2 6.4 11.7 5.7 ... ... 10.4 3.2 6.1 4.2 ... Chief Economist Complex, ECON 16
  • 17. 0 0 100 -1,110 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 -6,000 2011 2010 2009 2012 2013 50 2009 Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 17 300 275 30 225 25 200 15 35 250 20 175 75 2.5 - AFRICA: Financial indicators -5 2010 2,926 1,963 -3 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2013 2012 2011 Financial Issues ... ? 0 0 50 2009 3,889 3 5 ? Africa in the World Economy 100 4,851 6 10 125 5,814 9 15 150 6,777 12 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013 1,000 2 Currency depreciation against the US dollar Graph 23. Total reserves (billions of current US$) 4 000 3 750 3 500 3 250 3 000 2 750 2 500 2 250 4 000 2 000 3 750 1 750 3 500 1 500 3 250 2 750 2 500 2 250 2 000 15,00 1 750 1 500 11,25 7,50 15,00 3,75 11,25 7,50 0 0 35 30 25 20 2010 2011 2012 2013 9 2013 87,498 73,748 59,999 46,249 101,248 32,499 3 87,498 18,750 73,748 5,000 0 2011 2010 2009 59,999 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2012 2013 46,249 32,499 18,750 5,000 300 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 250 200 Graph 25. Stock market indexes (100=2005) 300 150 250 100 200 50 2009 150 2010 2011 2013 2012 100 6,777 50 5,814 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013 4,851 6,777 12 3 5,814 90 4,851 3,889 2,926 20 0 6 -5 2009 10 2013 2012 101,248 15 6 25 5 2011 Graph 24. Exchange rates : Kenya & South Africa (national currency per US $) 2013 2012 2011 8,669 The rally in South Africa's equity market during the 2009 second2010 of 2012 has tempehalf 3,779 red somewhat since the start of 2013. The strong performance displayed by the domestic share market in 2012 continued, helped by higher international equity prices, -1,110 15 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 improving business sentiment, and the depreciation in the exchange value of the -6,000 12 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 rand. The FTSE/JSE All-Share Price Index increased by around 2.0% in March 2013 9 from December 2012 and by 18.8% compared to 12 months previously. 3010 2010 2009 13,558 -6,000 3515 15 100 13,558 2012 150 0 Stock markets in West Africa posted good performances in the first quarter of 2013. 8,669 28,227 The BRVM index climbed by 18.2% between December 2012 and March 2013, as 23,338 3,779 the outlook for the subregion strengthened. At the same time, Botswana, Kenya, 18,448 -1,110 Mauritius and Nigeria, all recorded a double-digit uptick in stock markets. 2011 200 10 In recent years, developments in many Sub-Saharan Africa economies have caught 6 the attention of international investors looking for higher returns in emerging mar3 kets. Parallel with the uptrend in global stock markets since mid-2012, African equity indexes overall have registered robust performances, despite some divergences 28,227 0 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 among subregions. North Africa is one exception, where the current environment is 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 23,338 weighing heavily on equity markets and dampening investor confidence. 18,448 2010 250 20 Sub-Saharan stock markets are booming 2009 3,75 300 30 12 The weakening of the South African rand also continued in line with the downgrading of South Africa’s sovereign credit rating and the widening of the current account de9 ficit. In Kenya, between February and March, the Kenyan shilling registered a 1.9% 6 gain against the US dollar. 15 2009 3 000 350 40 As prospects for global growth remained modest and weighed by uncertainties at the turn of 2012–2013, almost major African currencies depreciated against the US dollar. In Egypt, the recent move to a more flexible exchange rate aimed to reduce the misalignment in the exchange rate. This led to a sharp devaluation of the Egyptian pound against the US dollar in March 2013, with a 9.8% loss compared to December 2012. 15 12 400 50 15 Consistent with slowing global activity and decelerating world trade, gross foreign reserves moderated in general across the continent during 2012. By contrast, in the 12 aftermath of Arab Spring and with continuing political uncertainties, international re9 serves held in US dollars declined sharply in Tunisia and Egypt, leading to more intense pressures on external stability. At the end of March 2013, Egypt’s foreign 6 reserves reached new critical levels of US$ 13.4 billion, as net international reserves 3 officially tallied, posting a 11.2% drop compared to the same period of previous year. The nation's reserves have fallen sharply from US$36 billion since the popular upri0 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 sing in 2011. 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2010 2011 2012 2013 1,963 -3 2009 3 2010 2011 2012 2013 3,889 1,000 2,926 5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 0 1,963 -3 -5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1,000 400 15 50 12 40 15 9 50 30 12 6 40 20 9 3 30 10 250 6 20 200 350 300 400 250 350 200 300 150 100 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 50 150 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 50 2009
  • 18. 15 101,248 87,498 12 73,748 18 | Statistics Department | First9Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 59,999 46,249 6 32,499 3 2011 2010 2013 2012 18,750 5,000 0 2010 Africa in the World2009 Economy Africa in the World Economy 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2013 2012 2011 ? Africa in the World Economy 101,248 Table 73,748 3,779 Algeria Algeria Botswana 2013 2012 5,000 Botswana Mauritius Mauritius Morocco 300 Morocco Nigeria Nigeria 250 Sierra Leone Sierra Leone 200 Uganda Uganda WAEMU 012 2011 2010 Ethiopian Birr 2010 2013 2009 2012 16.90 1.504 1.504 28.71 28.71 8.090 8.090 153.90 153.90 4,348.6 4,348.6 2,522.7 Cedi-Ghana 15 Mauritius Rupee 12 Dirham-Morocco 9 Naira-Nigeria Leone 6 3 Ugandan shilling 2,522.7 471.9 471.9 0 CFA Franc 150 WAEMU 77.61 77.61 7.620 7.620 2012 2011 Q.1 2013 / Q4 2012 2013 2012 January January 78.26 78.26 7.938 7.938 2013 17.79 18.31 1.852 1.903 1.852 1.903 30.12 30.60 30.12 30.60 8.631 8.397 8.631 8.397 158.80 156.86 158.80 156.86 4,344.7 4,329.9 4,344.7 4,329.9 2,504.5 2,683.5 2,504.5 2,683.5 510.4 493.4 510.4 493.4 150 February February 78.14 100 78.14 8.004 8.004 50 March March 79.16 79.16 8.215 8.215 2009 18.39 18.46 1.907 1.928 1.907 1.928 30.62 6,777 31.06 30.62 31.06 8.366 8.576 8.366 5,814 8.576 157.48 158.39 157.48 4,851 158.39 4,323.7 4,319.0 4,323.73,889 4,319.0 2,655.4 2,634.0 2,655.42,926 2,634.0 491.4 506.4 491.4 1,963 4.8 4.8 10.2 10.2 2011 1.2 1.2 1.2 -0.4 -0.4 -1.4 -1.4 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.2 1.2 -1.7 -1.7 506.4 Mar.2013/ Mar.2012 % change -0.8 -0.8 2.1 2.1 2010 Q.1 2013 / Q1 2012 2012 5.7 11.8 11.8 5.4 5.4 -0.6 -0.6 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 10.4 10.4 -0.7 6.6 6.6 13.4 13.4 2013 5.6 10.7 10.7 6.9 6.9 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.5 -0.8 -0.8 6.1 6.1 2.0 -0.7 2.0 -3 100 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2012 2013 1,000 2007 2006 2008 2010 2009 50 2013 12 12 -6,000 Pula-Botswana Ethiopia Ghana Ghana 2011 72.94 72.94 6.838 6.838 Algerian -1,110 Dinar 2009 2010 200 2011 Currency 8,669 18,750 2011 (national currency per U.S$, period average) 13,558 Country Country 32,499 2013 250 18,448 : Exchange rates for selected countries 10 46,249 2010 2.5 - AFRICA: Summary of financial indicators 23,338 87,498 59,999 Financial Issues ... ? 300 28,227 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Graph 26. Exchange rates : Tunisia & Egypt (national currency per US $) 6,777 Graph 26. Graph 27. Stock market indexes (100=2005) 400 50 350 5,814 40 300 4,851 30 250 20 200 3,889 2,926 150 10 1,963 2010 2013 2011 1,000 2012 100 0 2013 2006 2007 2008 2010 2010 2009 2009 2012 2011 50 2013 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013 400 Table 11 350 300 : Stock market indexes for selected countries Country (end of period quotes, %) 2011 6,970.9 7,510.2 EGX 30 Index 3,622.4 6,970.9 5,462.4 7,510.2 Nairobi All Share 3,205.0 3,622.4 4,133.0 5,462.4 Country 200 Botswana 150 Egypt Botswana January 2013 50 2009 Mauritius Kenya Morocco Mauritius Namibia Morocco South Africa Namibia Tanzania South Africa Tunisia Tanzania 2011 2010 Semdex Madex Free Float Index Overall Index FTSE/JSE All Share All Share Index Tunindex Tunisia Chief Economist Complex, ECON Chief Economist Complex, ECON 7,799.1 February Mar.2013/ Feb.2013 Mar.2013/ Mar.2012 % change March 7,946.0 8,400.0 March 11.8 5.7 5,576.0 7,799.1 5,546.4 7,946.0 5,098.8 8,400.0 -6.7 11.8 -8.1 5.7 1.6 19.0 4,416.6 5,576.0 4,513.6 5,546.4 4,830.4 5,098.8 16.9 -6.7 7.0 -8.1 43.5 1.6 2013 1,888.4 1,732.1 1,800.7 1,866.3 3,205.0 4,133.0 4,416.6 4,513.6 9,011.6 7,614.0 7,329.3 7,273.5 1,888.4 1,732.1 1,800.7 1,866.3 838.2 983.8 991.2 974.2 9,011.6 7,614.0 7,329.3 7,273.5 31,985.7 39,250.2 40,618.3 39,709.6 838.2 983.8 991.2 974.2 1,303.2 1,485.6 1,488.1 1,505.8 31,985.7 39,250.2 40,618.3 39,709.6 4,722.3 4,579.9 4,746.5 4,638.8 1,303.2 1,485.6 1,488.1 1,505.8 1,925.5 4,830.4 7,364.1 1,925.5 966.2 7,364.1 39,860.8 966.2 1,521.5 39,860.8 4,725.7 1,521.5 11.2 16.9 -3.3 11.2 -1.8 -3.3 1.6 -1.8 2.4 1.6 3.2 2.4 3.2 7.0 1.2 3.2 -0.8 1.2 0.4 -0.8 1.0 0.4 1.9 1.0 -4.8 43.5 -17.8 -4.8 9.0 -17.8 18.8 9.0 14.0 18.8 -2.0 14.0 4,725.7 3.2 1.9 -2.0 Gaborone Index 100 Kenya Egypt Mar.2013/ Dec.2012 2013 2012 Index 250 January February 2012 4,722.3 4,579.9 4,746.5 4,638.8 19.0 18 18
  • 19. Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 19 Africa in the World Economy ? Africa in the World Economy Financial Issues ... ? 2.5 - AFRICA: Summary of financial indicators Table 12 : Exchange rates (national currency per US$) Period average 2011 Q.2 Country Algeria Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Rep. Chad Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. of Congo, Republic of Côte d'Ivoire Djibouti Egypt Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia, The Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Kenya Lesotho Liberia Libya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda São Tomé & Príncipe Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Tunisia Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe 71.87 93.28 455.8 6.524 455.8 1239.3 455.8 76.62 455.8 455.8 341.8 923.2 455.8 455.7 177.7 5.951 455.8 15.38 16.887 455.8 28.00 1.510 6718.8 455.8 86.1 6.793 72.32 1.209 1961.4 150.8 455.8 274.4 27.95 7.870 30.13 6.793 455.8 155.4 600.2 17022.8 455.76 12.24 4344.5 6.793 2.361 6.793 1530.1 455.8 1.373 2405.2 4.756 322.4 Chief Economist Complex, ECON Q.3 73.09 93.61 464.9 6.770 464.9 1254.7 464.9 78.15 464.9 464.9 348.7 921.8 464.9 464.8 177.7 5.961 464.9 15.38 17.083 464.9 28.43 1.532 6841.0 464.9 93.2 7.145 72.48 1.214 1983.4 159.3 464.9 280.0 28.29 8.001 27.32 7.145 464.9 154.3 600.1 17364.6 464.92 12.26 4385.5 7.145 2.361 7.145 1609.3 464.9 1.390 2719.1 4.890 322.4 2012 Q.4 74.37 94.90 486.7 7.413 486.7 1313.3 486.7 81.82 486.7 486.7 365.1 910.3 486.7 487.0 177.7 5.991 486.7 15.38 17.235 486.7 28.93 1.625 6997.2 486.7 93.7 8.099 71.94 1.237 2123.7 165.3 486.7 288.2 29.14 8.310 26.81 8.099 486.7 160.3 602.1 18174.5 486.74 12.91 4404.0 8.099 2.361 8.099 1649.0 486.7 1.451 2609.1 5.032 322.4 Q.1 74.95 95.05 500.4 7.307 500.4 1392.5 500.4 84.12 500.4 500.4 375.3 919.7 500.4 500.4 177.7 6.035 500.4 15.38 17.399 500.4 30.32 1.711 7162.8 500.4 84.1 7.757 73.34 1.253 2185.8 165.9 500.4 292.2 29.19 8.493 27.29 7.757 500.4 159.2 605.4 18702.6 500.41 13.95 4362.7 7.757 2.361 7.757 1589.1 500.4 1.508 2406.9 5.209 322.4 Q.2 75.59 95.29 511.7 7.586 511.7 1404.9 511.7 86.01 511.7 511.7 383.7 922.3 511.7 511.5 177.7 6.043 511.7 15.38 17.633 511.7 30.26 1.871 7096.6 511.7 84.1 8.126 74.81 1.263 2123.6 225.3 511.7 293.3 29.67 8.645 27.80 8.126 511.7 159.4 608.5 19094.9 511.65 14.23 4344.6 8.126 2.462 8.126 1584.7 511.7 1.568 2489.9 5.234 322.4 2013 Q.3 80.71 95.42 524.4 7.702 524.4 1464.1 524.4 88.15 524.4 524.4 393.3 919.1 524.4 524.2 177.7 6.080 524.4 15.38 17.957 524.4 32.15 1.936 7175.9 524.4 84.3 8.260 73.64 1.272 2248.7 283.0 524.4 300.5 30.70 8.819 28.42 8.260 524.4 159.3 614.8 19583.2 524.40 13.57 4337.1 8.260 3.887 8.260 1579.4 524.4 1.602 2495.1 4.947 322.4 Q.4 79.19 95.63 505.6 7.884 505.6 1505.3 505.6 85.00 505.6 505.6 379.2 915.9 505.6 505.6 177.7 6.124 505.6 15.38 18.165 505.6 32.04 1.890 7002.4 505.6 85.6 8.690 72.27 1.259 2238.3 322.9 505.6 299.2 30.90 8.566 29.58 8.690 505.6 157.3 628.3 18893.0 505.65 13.10 4334.5 8.690 3.895 8.690 1578.8 505.6 1.571 2626.3 5.200 322.4 Q.1 78.52 96.02 496.9 8.052 496.9 1592.6 496.9 83.53 496.9 496.9 372.7 917.1 496.9 497.1 177.7 6.688 496.9 15.38 18.387 496.9 33.70 1.913 7008.8 496.9 86.7 8.954 ... ... 2223.2 366.7 496.9 296.6 30.76 8.447 30.23 8.954 496.9 157.6 633.2 18548.8 496.88 12.51 4324.2 8.954 3.908 8.954 1589.8 496.9 1.566 2657.6 5.339 322.4
  • 20. 20 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 Africa in the World Economy ? Africa in the World Economy Financial Issues ... ? 2.5 - AFRICA: Summary of financial indicators Table 13 : International reserves (Billions of US$) as at end of period 2011 2012 Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Q.1 Q.2 Algeria Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Côte d'Ivoire Djibouti Egypt Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Gabon Gambia, The Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Kenya Liberia Libya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Sao Tome and Principe Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Tunisia Uganda Zambia 169.9 20.48 1.278 8.374 1.077 0.345 3.748 0.374 0.189 0.825 0.166 1.397 5.190 3.538 0.257 27.68 2.234 0.116 1.925 0.203 4.672 0.118 0.159 4.172 0.476 107.4 1.209 0.199 1.373 0.311 2.575 22.84 2.126 1.536 0.723 35.88 0.707 0.045 2.206 0.275 0.425 43.51 2.929 0.677 3.643 0.894 9.199 2.434 2.106 176.2 24.06 1.187 8.578 1.026 0.342 3.488 0.317 0.199 0.882 0.151 1.402 5.716 4.049 0.249 23.51 3.630 0.117 2.503 0.221 4.928 0.117 0.250 4.173 0.499 107.2 1.254 0.227 1.454 0.411 2.698 22.13 2.352 1.821 0.722 34.57 0.748 0.048 2.552 0.296 0.416 43.98 2.415 0.639 3.498 0.865 7.712 2.273 2.588 176.6 25.57 1.077 8.301 0.923 0.303 3.239 0.309 0.165 0.900 0.146 1.260 5.859 4.204 0.224 20.96 2.557 0.116 2.282 0.195 4.757 0.112 0.220 4.007 0.493 104.1 1.236 0.270 1.367 0.420 2.559 20.57 2.371 1.432 0.618 34.36 0.825 0.055 2.454 0.279 0.420 43.21 0.667 0.573 3.471 0.759 7.998 2.479 2.556 182.8 26.48 0.887 8.082 0.957 0.294 3.199 0.339 0.155 0.951 0.155 1.268 5.641 4.316 0.244 14.92 3.054 0.115 2.157 0.223 5.483 0.103 0.220 4.264 0.513 104.8 1.279 0.197 1.379 0.485 2.583 19.53 2.469 1.787 0.673 35.21 1.050 0.051 1.946 0.290 0.439 42.60 0.193 0.601 3.726 0.774 7.454 2.617 2.324 187.1 27.39 1.026 8.066 0.726 0.289 3.095 0.344 0.169 0.866 0.150 1.351 5.565 4.270 0.253 11.82 4.079 ... 2.058 0.217 4.741 0.104 0.182 4.697 0.520 110.0 1.295 0.148 1.289 0.509 2.590 18.42 2.315 1.604 0.712 37.79 0.900 0.053 2.090 0.304 0.453 43.98 0.194 0.580 3.534 0.658 7.084 2.741 2.319 187.0 30.73 0.912 7.831 0.815 0.273 3.059 0.358 0.146 0.872 0.157 1.406 5.657 3.890 0.258 12.15 3.066 ... 2.198 0.233 4.175 ... 0.211 5.309 0.495 110.5 1.176 0.093 1.113 0.569 2.601 15.98 2.473 1.734 0.796 37.95 0.860 0.036 1.856 0.305 0.442 42.92 0.190 0.614 3.788 0.548 6.359 2.859 2.440 188.9 30.43 0.800 7.794 0.908 0.283 3.033 0.377 0.166 0.952 0.172 1.508 5.848 3.695 0.253 11.66 4.287 ... 2.295 0.223 4.193 ... 0.183 5.495 0.481 115.438 1.150 0.186 1.181 0.821 2.712 15.63 2.867 1.675 0.897 43.224 ... 0.041 1.994 0.311 0.445 43.85 0.193 0.670 4.045 0.534 6.494 3.098 3.319 Zimbabwe 0.699 0.791 0.686 0.659 0.624 0.573 0.567 Country Q.3 Q.4 191.3 30.98 0.713 7.628 1.025 0.307 3.381 0.376 0.158 1.156 ... 1.633 5.550 3.928 0.249 11.63 4.397 ... 2.352 0.236 5.368 ... 0.165 5.711 0.500 ... 1.191 0.223 1.341 0.949 2.837 16.36 2.770 1.746 1.015 46.405 ... 0.052 2.082 0.319 0.478 44.00 0.193 0.741 4.053 0.442 8.357 3.169 3.042 0.574 * provisional Chief Economist Complex, ECON
  • 21. Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 21 ? Data sources and descriptions Graph Cover page Description and technical observations Business confidence in USA, Eurozone and Japan / Africa's exports by destination (in %) Data Sources International databases / WTO 1 Volume of Gross Domestic Product for Advanced Economies (Quarterly data seasonally adjusted (sa), growth rate compared to the previous quarter) OECD 2 Volume of Gross Domestic Product for Emerging Economies (Quarterly data, growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year) OECD 3 Harmonized Unemployment Rate in United States and Euro zone (monthly data, % of active population) OECD 4 Consumer Prices all Items for Advanced Economies (monthly data, percentage change on the same period of the previous year) OECD 5 Exchange rates in US$ for the Euro, the Yen and the Yuan Monthly average OECD 6 Share price for US, Japan, Europe and Shangai 7 Africa: growth of GDP volume (quarterly data at market prices seasonally adjusted, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year) 8 Manufacturing Production for selected African countries (monthly data sa, % change compared to the same month of the previous year) 9 North Africa: growth of GDP volume (quarterly data at market prices seasonally adjusted, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year) AfDB Statistics Department, Regional Member Countries and IMF 10 Crude Oil Production for African member countries of OPEC (monthly data; 1 000 barrel / day) AfDB Statistics Department and OPEC 11 Manufacturing Production for Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire (quarterly data sa, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year) 12 - 13 -14 Focus World volume imports of goods / Exports and imports values in current US dollar for selected African countries (quarterly data, current values, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year) Major economic statistics Bloomberg AfDB Statistics Department, Regional Member Countries and IMF Regional Member Countries Regional Member Countries OECD / WTO Bank of Ghana / Ghana Statistical Services 15 Commodity prices (monthly indexes, 100=2005) IMF, IFS Database 16 Oil prices (WTI and Brent) (US$ per barrel) IMF, IFS Database 17 Cocoa beans monthly prices (US$ per metric tonne) IMF, IFS Database 18 -20 Inflation on consumer prices in selected African countries (monthly data, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year) AfDB Statistics Department, Regional Member Countries and IMF 21 Inflation on manufacturing producer prices in selected African countries (monthly data, % change compared to the same quarter of the previous year) AfDB Statistics Department, Regional Member Countries and IMF 22 South Africa : Money aggregate M3 and claims on private sector (monthly sa data, annual growth in %) 23 Gross foreign reserves South Africa and Egypt (billions of US$) 24 & 26 Exchange rates (national currency per US$, monthly average rates) 25 & 27 Stock market indexes for selected African countries (end of period quotes, 100=2005) SARB World Bank and national sources AfDB Statistics Department, Central Banks and IMF National Stock Exchanges
  • 22. 22 | Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 ? Data sources and descriptions Table Data Sources Page 1 OECD, IMF, National Bureau of Statistics of China and Federal State Statistics Service of Russia 4 2 OECD, EUROSTAT 4 3 Bloomberg OECD 4 4 AfDB Statistics Department and national statistical agencies 6 5 WTO 11 6 World Bank and ational sources 11 7 World Bank 13 8 National sources, World Bank and IMF 15 9 National Statistics sources and IMF 16 10 World Bank and National sources 18 11 National Statistics sources and international databases 18 12 World Bank 19 13 World Bank 20
  • 23. Statistics Department | First Quarter 2013 - Volume 13 - April 26, 2013 | 23