“GLOBAL CHANGE AND THE FUTURE OF AFRICANAGRICULTURE: WHAT ROLE FOR HIGHER EDUCATION?”                        Simon Carter ...
MULTIPLE STRESSES ON AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS1. Environmental   US$4 Billion per year: estimated value of soil degradation los...
Investments in African agricultureUS$2.5 billion: amount spent annually to enhance productivity0.75%: Average proportion o...
MULTIPLE STRESSES ON AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS1. Environmental2. Social challenges and health                                  ...
Projected impact of HIV/AIDS on agricultural labor in                   selected countries                         Namibia...
MULTIPLE STRESSES ON AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS1. Environmental2. Social challenges and health3. Conflict                       ...
Conflict and fragility in Africa, 2011                                         8
Estimates of agricultural losses due to armed conflictCountry       Years          Cumulative Annual         Annual total ...
MULTIPLE STRESSES ON AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS1. Environmental2. Social challenges and health3. Conflict4. Institutional and po...
MOVING FORWARD IN HIGHER EDUCATION1. Train people to build resilient agricultural systems   • Entry points – e.g. girls’ e...
MOVING FORWARD IN HIGHER EDUCATION1. Train people to build resilient agricultural systems2. Train and reward people to wor...
Systems research chairs: some suggestions• Health and nutrition in agri-food systems• Agri-business and value chains• Rura...
Partnerships in a Latin American researchprogramme on rural territorial developmentSource: Annual report, Rural Territoria...
MOVING FORWARD IN HIGHER EDUCATION1. Train people to build resilient agricultural systems2. Train and reward people to wor...
www.idrc.cascarter@idrc.ca
“Global Change and the future of African Agriculture: What role for Higher Education?”
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“Global Change and the future of African Agriculture: What role for Higher Education?”

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Presentation made by Simon Cater at the RUFORUM Biennial Conference 2012

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  • “Global Change and the future of African Agriculture: What role for Higher Education?”

    1. 1. “GLOBAL CHANGE AND THE FUTURE OF AFRICANAGRICULTURE: WHAT ROLE FOR HIGHER EDUCATION?” Simon Carter Regional Director, East and Southern Africa Office International Development Research Centre
    2. 2. MULTIPLE STRESSES ON AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS1. Environmental US$4 Billion per year: estimated value of soil degradation losses 80%: proportion of farmers dependent solely on rainfed agriculture 20-30%: Estimated reduction in dryland crop yield in Southern Africa due to climate change by 2050 2
    3. 3. Investments in African agricultureUS$2.5 billion: amount spent annually to enhance productivity0.75%: Average proportion of GDP African countries invest inagriculture.9834: Recent estimate of the number of African public sectoragricultural researchers 3
    4. 4. MULTIPLE STRESSES ON AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS1. Environmental2. Social challenges and health 4
    5. 5. Projected impact of HIV/AIDS on agricultural labor in selected countries Namibia Botswana Zimbabwe Mozambi South Kenya que AfricaHIV Prevalence 22.5 38.8 33.7 13.0 20.1 15.0Rate 2001Projected loss -26 -23 -23 -20 -20 -17.0in agric. labor(%) to 2020Projected 62.7 58 624.5 1 186.0 383.0 1 287.6number deaths(000) to 2020 (Source: Adapted from FAO, 2000; UNAIDS, 2002, cited in Coulibaly, 2003) 6
    6. 6. MULTIPLE STRESSES ON AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS1. Environmental2. Social challenges and health3. Conflict 7
    7. 7. Conflict and fragility in Africa, 2011 8
    8. 8. Estimates of agricultural losses due to armed conflictCountry Years Cumulative Annual Annual total loss Annual losses per agric. total loss total loss as % of agric. Worker (1999-2001 (USD) (USD) Output USD)Angola 1976-2002 2,995,303 106,975 15.9 30.06Burundi 1998-2002 171,967 34,393 5.3 11.13Chad 1966-1990 636,664 25,467 4.6 12.43DRC 1996-2001 1,321,311 220,218 7.7 16.78Liberia 1990-1992 18,162 6,054 4.1 10.48Mozambique 1964-1974 235,172 21,379 2.5 4.87 1981-1992 1,181,461 98,455 12.2 16.98Namibia 1980-1988 39,131 4,348 1.9 17.44Nigeria 1967-1970 2,150,667 537,667 6.7 35.04Somalia 1988-1996 275,032 30,559 3.2 14.61Sudan 1963-1972 690,975 69,098 3.2 16.40 1983-2003 2,424,773 115,465 3.1 16.85Uganda 1978-1989 289,271 26,297 0.8 3.61Average 956,145 99,721 5.49 15.9 Source: IANSA, Oxfam and Saferworld, 2007 9
    9. 9. MULTIPLE STRESSES ON AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS1. Environmental2. Social challenges and health3. Conflict4. Institutional and policy weaknesses5. Economic change 10
    10. 10. MOVING FORWARD IN HIGHER EDUCATION1. Train people to build resilient agricultural systems • Entry points – e.g. girls’ education • Bottlenecks – e.g. storage, insecure tenure • Levers on system evolution – e.g. taxation 11
    11. 11. MOVING FORWARD IN HIGHER EDUCATION1. Train people to build resilient agricultural systems2. Train and reward people to work collaboratively 12
    12. 12. Systems research chairs: some suggestions• Health and nutrition in agri-food systems• Agri-business and value chains• Rural energy systems• Governance of water resources• Adaptation and risk management 13
    13. 13. Partnerships in a Latin American researchprogramme on rural territorial developmentSource: Annual report, Rural Territorial Development programme, RIMISP, 2010 14
    14. 14. MOVING FORWARD IN HIGHER EDUCATION1. Train people to build resilient agricultural systems2. Train and reward people to work collaboratively3. Build the capacity to learn from mistakes4. Build trust in institutions5. Educate people to foster rural innovation systems 15
    15. 15. www.idrc.cascarter@idrc.ca

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