CLIMATE CHANGEIMPLICATIONS ON FOOD  AND AGRICUTURE IN       AFRICA          L.A.OGALLO IGAD CLIMATE AND APPLICATIONS      ...
IGAD CLIMATE AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC)8 IGAD MEMBERS PLUS TANZANIA, RWANDA AND BURUNDI             30               ...
Key issues• Climate change and food / Agriculture• Tomorrow’s Climate (2030; 2070, 2100, 2300,--- )  Africa (Climate chang...
Today’s climate ( Current Baselines ofthe African climate)•Most of the Continent has arid andsemi arid climates (climate k...
ARID AND SEMI ARID lands(ASALs) cover over 70%
Examples of past andpresent climates in Africa
Mean African compared to other regions, IPCC
Min Temperature at one location, Kenya                                                                                    ...
Kilimanjaro glaciers melting                               Complete disappearance of                               Kiliman...
Summary of past / presentclimates in AFICA•Warming trends•Changes in space-time patternsof the rainfall•Changes in Climate...
IMPACTS OF PAST /PRESENT CLIMATES on•Food andAgriculture (+ Livestock)(IPCC Assessments and specialreport on extremes) ; A...
DISATERS AND DEVELOPMENT TODAY                          14
Hazards frequency        Affected society: Drought,                         epidemics, floods                    Affected ...
CAUSES OF NEGATIVEIMPACTS•Hazards droughts, floods, andother climate extremes real•High level of vulnerability•Low capacit...
CLIMATE OF TOMORROW in AfricaWILL BE DETERMINED BY:• Population• Economic development• Energy production and energy  consu...
Desertification; environment degradation patterns;etcPopulation;urbanization, etc.
Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Africa               Temperature and precipitation changes over Africa.     Dif...
Vulnerability of the African Continent
Vulnerability of the African Continent
Roles of Universities andresearch institutions(research)•Local Knowledge of climateand EXTREMES and theirinteractions with...
Research Gaps•Development and diffusion of Scienceand technology innovations required toaddress the regional climate chang...
Climate proofing of Agriculture– Research, knowledge, S $ T innovations– Drought Resistant Varieties; livestock, forestry–...
Other key issues•Observations and Data base•Local scenarios ; Monitoring, and Early WarningSystems•Capacity (human, techni...
Opportunities onCLIMATE CHANGEStudies AVAILABLEAT ICPAC
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD AND AGRICUTURE IN AFRICA
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD AND AGRICUTURE IN AFRICA
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD AND AGRICUTURE IN AFRICA
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD AND AGRICUTURE IN AFRICA
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD AND AGRICUTURE IN AFRICA
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD AND AGRICUTURE IN AFRICA

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Presented by L.A.OGALLO at the Biennial Conference 2012.

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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD AND AGRICUTURE IN AFRICA

  1. 1. CLIMATE CHANGEIMPLICATIONS ON FOOD AND AGRICUTURE IN AFRICA L.A.OGALLO IGAD CLIMATE AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) www.icpac.netand Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi
  2. 2. IGAD CLIMATE AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC)8 IGAD MEMBERS PLUS TANZANIA, RWANDA AND BURUNDI 30 Sudan Eritrea 20 Djibouti 10 Ethiopia 0 Somalia Uganda -1 0 -2 0 Kenya Rwanda Burundi -3 0 Tanzania -1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50
  3. 3. Key issues• Climate change and food / Agriculture• Tomorrow’s Climate (2030; 2070, 2100, 2300,--- ) Africa (Climate change) and potential implications• Past / present climates and impacts on food / Agriculture? (Natural vs Anthropogenic Climate Change)• Building resilient climate smart systems for climate proofing food and agriculture in Africa• Roles of universities and research institutions
  4. 4. Today’s climate ( Current Baselines ofthe African climate)•Most of the Continent has arid andsemi arid climates (climate key risk)•Most livelihoods are rain dependent•Water key stress (most water sourcesfrom under ground, rain , rivers from glacialmountains and wetter areas; inter territorialrivers (Shared river basins)
  5. 5. ARID AND SEMI ARID lands(ASALs) cover over 70%
  6. 6. Examples of past andpresent climates in Africa
  7. 7. Mean African compared to other regions, IPCC
  8. 8. Min Temperature at one location, Kenya Seasonal rainfall 16 14 12Minimum Temperature(Deg. C) 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-62 Jan-68 Jan-72 Jan-78 Jan-04 Jan-60 Jan-64 Jan-66 Jan-70 Jan-74 Jan-76 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Month/Year Zone 14 (Kabete) Seasonal rainfall 60 50 Mean MAM decadal rainfall (mm) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 years Decadal variability
  9. 9. Kilimanjaro glaciers melting Complete disappearance of Kilimanjaro’s glaciers by 2020
  10. 10. Summary of past / presentclimates in AFICA•Warming trends•Changes in space-time patternsof the rainfall•Changes in Climate extremes egfrequency, severity, on set /cessation dates, etc.•Serious Data / knowledge gaps
  11. 11. IMPACTS OF PAST /PRESENT CLIMATES on•Food andAgriculture (+ Livestock)(IPCC Assessments and specialreport on extremes) ; Agricultureexperts have more strengths
  12. 12. DISATERS AND DEVELOPMENT TODAY 14
  13. 13. Hazards frequency Affected society: Drought, epidemics, floods Affected Drought leadsFrequencyepidemics,droughtfloods Deaths Epidemics Drought
  14. 14. CAUSES OF NEGATIVEIMPACTS•Hazards droughts, floods, andother climate extremes real•High level of vulnerability•Low capacity•Most hazards turn to Disasters•Future change will bedevastation with out adaptation
  15. 15. CLIMATE OF TOMORROW in AfricaWILL BE DETERMINED BY:• Population• Economic development• Energy production and energy consumption• Science and Technology• Land use• Policies, etc
  16. 16. Desertification; environment degradation patterns;etcPopulation;urbanization, etc.
  17. 17. Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Africa Temperature and precipitation changes over Africa. Differences between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099, averaged over 21 GCMs
  18. 18. Vulnerability of the African Continent
  19. 19. Vulnerability of the African Continent
  20. 20. Roles of Universities andresearch institutions(research)•Local Knowledge of climateand EXTREMES and theirinteractions with vulnerabilityand capacity factors
  21. 21. Research Gaps•Development and diffusion of Scienceand technology innovations required toaddress the regional climate changesneeds and Gaps including regionalclimate science / local scenariosrequired for climate risk reduction(impacts, vulnerability, mitigation andadaptation) eg Geoengineering• Resources for research , S & Tinnovations (1% investment)
  22. 22. Climate proofing of Agriculture– Research, knowledge, S $ T innovations– Drought Resistant Varieties; livestock, forestry– Intercropping and diversification– Crop / Seed varieties– Diversification of livelihood options– Climate Hot spots mapping– Integration of climate information in Food and Agriculture Prediction and early warning– Water , agriculture and related policies– Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategy– Capacity building / Community Based
  23. 23. Other key issues•Observations and Data base•Local scenarios ; Monitoring, and Early WarningSystems•Capacity (human, technical, Computing, Risk modelling, ---)•Policies / implementation•Education, awareness, networking•Weak national Institutions•Networking, Coordination and Collaboration•Roles of local / indigenous knowledge•Water availability
  24. 24. Opportunities onCLIMATE CHANGEStudies AVAILABLEAT ICPAC

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