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Time to rebalance

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  • America’s economy will undergo one of its biggest transformations in decades.
  • - GDP shrank 3,8% - worst drop after second world war Gross Domestic Product
  • Transcript

    • 1. Greg Ip “TIME TO REBALANCE” The Economist, March 31st Sigrid Sibul
    • 2. The presentation
      • 8 minutes
      • Recession in USA
      • Cheap oil, easy loans and credit, high salary are not about to return
      • Transformation of economics
        • Away from consumption and dept
        • Towards exports and saving
    • 3. Old model
      • Recession -> end of the old economic model
      • Customers less willing to spend
      • Banks less willing to lend
      • Customers in dept
        • Average from 80% to 129%
        • GDP: 70%, 76%, 73%
    • 4. The Economist, March 31st 2010
    • 5. Examples
      • Deflated assets
      • Tighter credit
      • Fewer new homes
      • Shranked average home size
    • 6. Recessions
      • Comparison
        • 1973-1975
        • 1981-1982
      • GDP shrank 3,8%
      • Economy might grow 6-8%
      • Unemployment falling steadily
    • 7. Unemployment
      • Surplus buildings, equipment and dept
      • Recovery is slow and weak
      • High unemployment throughout the country
      The Economist, March 31st 2010
    • 8. Economic recovery
      • Higher energy prizes
      • Renewable energy
      • Imports of the stuff decreasing
      • Changed economic geography
      • Spending on equipment
    • 9. Economic recovery
      • Exports – classic route to recovery
      • Intel & Brian Krzanich
        • Sales down, 3% of employees laid off
        • 3 billion $ for retooling
        • Readiness to produce new cheaper, smaller and efficient chips
    • 10. Easy days gone for ever
      • “ Worst crisis since the 30s with no end in sight.” – September 18th 2008
      • Mr Hamilton
      • Antidote for all happiness and slappy
    • 11. THANK YOU! Questions!?