Lauri. I`d like U to draw Ur attention to the fact that the inflationrates tripled in just one year. Vertical axis show the rates, horizontal – time. They soared and reached their peak in 2009. After that there was a sharp fall and the rates levelled out from May till October. And have shown a downward trend ever since.
Pangad laenasid palju raha välja (kõrge riskiga ettevõtetesse), kohalikud elanikud võtsid palju laene (nagu Eestis) -> inimestel oli palju raha käes, palju raha ringluses ja see tõi kaasa inflatsiooni. Inflatsioon ehk kõrged hinnad tingisid pankadel kõrged hoiuseintressid -> kõrged intressid tõid kohale välishoiustajad (Inglismaalt).
„Iceland best place to live, Africa worst – UN“ Reuters 2007<br />ICELAND CrisisLauri Läänelaid<br />
Iceland<br />HDI 2007 – 0,968, 1st. Norway and Australia followed<br />GDP per capita 2007 – 64 190 USD<br />Easy access to money provided by Banks<br />Strong insurance policy (2 pension schemes, health insurance etc)<br />
Business Vikings<br />Jon Asgeir Johannesson – establisher of Baugur Group<br />Lydur and Agust Gudmundsson aka „The Bakka Brothers“ – establishers of Bakkavor and controlling stakeowners in Exista bank<br />Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson - Iceland's second businessman worth more than a billion dollars, ex-chairman of Landsbanki<br />
The scheme<br />Bankruptcy<br />Loans money<br />No money for depositors<br />Buys bills/notes/bonds<br />No money to pay back loan<br />No money to pay to creditors<br />Buys capital or expands<br />
The Baugur Tragedy<br />No money for depositors<br />Loans money to<br />Jon Asgeir Johannesson<br />Invests into<br />Landsbanki calls in <br />1 000 000 000 £<br />e.g. Hamleys, House of Fraser, Goldsmiths<br />No money to pay back<br />
The scenario<br />Risky loans by Kaupthing, Landsbanki and Glitnir (debt in excess of €50 billion)<br />Local household debt -> inflation -><br />High prices -> high interest rates (15,5%) -><br />Foreign depositors (Icesave, Kaupthing Edge)<br />
The scenario<br />Global financial crisis<br />"Iceland is on the brink of collapse. Inflation and interest rates are raging upwards. The krona, Iceland's currency, is in freefall„ The Guardian, 5 October 2008 <br />Run on deposits in the UK (300 000 UK savers)<br />
The consequence<br />Enterprises bankruptcy – locals lose their jobs<br />UK and Belgium depositors have lost their assets<br />Britain declared Icelanders as „terrorists“<br />Thirdof the population consideredemigration<br />