Diffusion, Adopters and Innovation
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Diffusion, Adopters and Innovation

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Diffusion, Adopters and Innovation Diffusion, Adopters and Innovation Presentation Transcript

  • DIFFUSION
  •  
  • Diffusion
    • Process by which
      • A new idea is communicated
      • Or spread in a social group
      • And becomes an innovation
    • Diffusion is a type of social change
    • Diffusion is behind “implementation”
  • Diffusion
    • M-payment is not yet diffused in Mexico, so it's still a good idea , not an innovation!
  • Diffusion
    • Herorat.org: training and using rats to sniff landmines in Africa is an innovation!
    • (training process, adoption scheme)‏
  • Innovation idea #21
    • All innovation requires a diffusion process.
    • Social change is the result of this process.
    • Otherwise, it's just a good idea.
  • Social change
  • Social change
  • Social change
  • Videos SUV / mobile phone videos
  • Innovation idea #22
    • The designed environment has an important role in social change: it creates opportunities and incentivates certain behaviours over others
  • Change: co-causality
    • From social to individual:
      • Generation of new ideas
    • From individual to social:
      • Evaluation of new ideas
  • Diffusion
    • “ The process by which new ideas become real solutions”
    • Solutions available to social groups
    • Adopters' evaluation
    • Adoption or rejection decisions
  • Diffusion
    • Diffusion is uncertain:
      • Lack of predictability, structure, and information
  • Diffusion
    • Most new ideas/products are not diffused and adopted rapidly:
      • Even when they have obvious, proven advantages
  • Innovation idea #23
    • The diffusion rate of a new idea is only marginally related to how good or bad it is.
    • Many other issues can become crucial: politics, culture, “timing”, etc
  • Diffusion
    • “ Perceived newness”
      • It matters little whether or not an idea is objectively new
  •  
  •  
  • $500 dollars
  •  
  • Diffusion curves
    • Sigmoid function
    • S-shape curves
    time: cumulative adoption number of adopters
  • Diffusion curves
    • ‘ Tipping point’
      • At about 10 to 25% adoption*
    • ‘ Inflection point’
      • At about 75 to 90% adoption*
    • Technology clusters
      • Hard to distinguish start/end of diffusion
  • time: cumulative adoption types of adopters
  • The S-shape curve
    • Once a few adopt, they tell others about the innovation and the number of adopters per unit of time takes off
    • Until the market potential decreases, influence becomes redundant and adoption slows down again
  • Critical mass
    • Point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation’s further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining
    • That means:
      • “ Diffusion continues no matter what”
  • the foundation sold 55 million bracelets in 2005, says www.livestrong.org “ Rubber bracelets are today's version of bumper stickers, buttons, ribbons or flags” http://www.sunjournal.com/story/271282-3/bsection/Livestrong_bracelets_began_healthy_trend/
  • Adopter categories ‘ Innovators ’ Early adopters Mass adopters Late adopters Laggards
  • Innovation idea #24
    • People fall into different adopter categories for different types of products.
        • Clichés are not useful: aim to understand and design for your target adopters
  • Enabling strategies
    • Target opinion leaders
    • Shape individual’s perceptions of the innovation
    • Target early adopters first, but do not focus only on them
    • Provide incentives for adoption
    • Promote negotiation and interpretations
    • Any design strategies?
  •  
  • Varying critical mass, same end result Constant critical mass, different end result
  • Critical Mass of Head-Up Displays?
  • Characteristics of innovations
    • Relative advantage
      • Perceived as a better solution
    • Compatibility
      • Perceived as consistent with values, experience, needs
    • Complexity
      • Perceived as difficult to understand and use
    • Trialability
      • Experimented with on a limited basis
    • Observability
      • Results are visible to others
  • Innovation idea #25
    • Evidence shows that innovations that diffuse rapidly have:
    • - greater perceived advantages
    • - greater compatibility
    • - greater trialability
    • - greater observability
    • - less complexity
  • Perceived advantages
  • Trialability
  • Observability
  • Compatibility
  • Compatibility
  • Complexity
  •  
  • Uncertainty
    • Adopters’ experience
      • Influence perception of next innovation
    • Competitors
    • Non-intended uses
    • Social and cultural events
    • Reinterpretations or re-inventions
  • Re-invention
    • Degree to which an innovation
      • Is changed or modified
      • By third-party (users, mkt, competition)‏
      • During diffusion
      • And implementation
    • At least some degree of re-invention occurs at the implementation stage
      • For many innovations
      • And by many adopters
  • Reinvention
  •