Diffusion, Adopters and Innovation


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Diffusion, Adopters and Innovation

  2. 3. Diffusion <ul><li>Process by which </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A new idea is communicated </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Or spread in a social group </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>And becomes an innovation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Diffusion is a type of social change </li></ul><ul><li>Diffusion is behind “implementation” </li></ul>
  3. 4. Diffusion <ul><li>M-payment is not yet diffused in Mexico, so it's still a good idea , not an innovation! </li></ul>
  4. 5. Diffusion <ul><li>Herorat.org: training and using rats to sniff landmines in Africa is an innovation! </li></ul><ul><li>(training process, adoption scheme)‏ </li></ul>
  5. 6. Innovation idea #21 <ul><li>All innovation requires a diffusion process. </li></ul><ul><li>Social change is the result of this process. </li></ul><ul><li>Otherwise, it's just a good idea. </li></ul>
  6. 7. Social change
  7. 8. Social change
  8. 9. Social change
  9. 10. Videos SUV / mobile phone videos
  10. 11. Innovation idea #22 <ul><li>The designed environment has an important role in social change: it creates opportunities and incentivates certain behaviours over others </li></ul>
  11. 12. Change: co-causality <ul><li>From social to individual: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Generation of new ideas </li></ul></ul><ul><li>From individual to social: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Evaluation of new ideas </li></ul></ul>
  12. 13. Diffusion <ul><li>“ The process by which new ideas become real solutions” </li></ul><ul><li>Solutions available to social groups </li></ul><ul><li>Adopters' evaluation </li></ul><ul><li>Adoption or rejection decisions </li></ul>
  13. 14. Diffusion <ul><li>Diffusion is uncertain: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of predictability, structure, and information </li></ul></ul>
  14. 15. Diffusion <ul><li>Most new ideas/products are not diffused and adopted rapidly: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Even when they have obvious, proven advantages </li></ul></ul>
  15. 16. Innovation idea #23 <ul><li>The diffusion rate of a new idea is only marginally related to how good or bad it is. </li></ul><ul><li>Many other issues can become crucial: politics, culture, “timing”, etc </li></ul>
  16. 17. Diffusion <ul><li>“ Perceived newness” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It matters little whether or not an idea is objectively new </li></ul></ul>
  17. 20. $500 dollars
  18. 22. Diffusion curves <ul><li>Sigmoid function </li></ul><ul><li>S-shape curves </li></ul>time: cumulative adoption number of adopters
  19. 23. Diffusion curves <ul><li>‘ Tipping point’ </li></ul><ul><ul><li>At about 10 to 25% adoption* </li></ul></ul><ul><li>‘ Inflection point’ </li></ul><ul><ul><li>At about 75 to 90% adoption* </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technology clusters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hard to distinguish start/end of diffusion </li></ul></ul>
  20. 24. time: cumulative adoption types of adopters
  21. 25. The S-shape curve <ul><li>Once a few adopt, they tell others about the innovation and the number of adopters per unit of time takes off </li></ul><ul><li>Until the market potential decreases, influence becomes redundant and adoption slows down again </li></ul>
  22. 26. Critical mass <ul><li>Point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation’s further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining </li></ul><ul><li>That means: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Diffusion continues no matter what” </li></ul></ul>
  23. 27. the foundation sold 55 million bracelets in 2005, says www.livestrong.org “ Rubber bracelets are today's version of bumper stickers, buttons, ribbons or flags” http://www.sunjournal.com/story/271282-3/bsection/Livestrong_bracelets_began_healthy_trend/
  24. 28. Adopter categories ‘ Innovators ’ Early adopters Mass adopters Late adopters Laggards
  25. 29. Innovation idea #24 <ul><li>People fall into different adopter categories for different types of products. </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Clichés are not useful: aim to understand and design for your target adopters </li></ul></ul></ul>
  26. 30. Enabling strategies <ul><li>Target opinion leaders </li></ul><ul><li>Shape individual’s perceptions of the innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Target early adopters first, but do not focus only on them </li></ul><ul><li>Provide incentives for adoption </li></ul><ul><li>Promote negotiation and interpretations </li></ul><ul><li>Any design strategies? </li></ul>
  27. 32. Varying critical mass, same end result Constant critical mass, different end result
  28. 33. Critical Mass of Head-Up Displays?
  29. 34. Characteristics of innovations <ul><li>Relative advantage </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Perceived as a better solution </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Compatibility </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Perceived as consistent with values, experience, needs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Complexity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Perceived as difficult to understand and use </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Trialability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Experimented with on a limited basis </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Observability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Results are visible to others </li></ul></ul>
  30. 35. Innovation idea #25 <ul><li>Evidence shows that innovations that diffuse rapidly have: </li></ul><ul><li>- greater perceived advantages </li></ul><ul><li>- greater compatibility </li></ul><ul><li>- greater trialability </li></ul><ul><li>- greater observability </li></ul><ul><li>- less complexity </li></ul>
  31. 36. Perceived advantages
  32. 37. Trialability
  33. 38. Observability
  34. 39. Compatibility
  35. 40. Compatibility
  36. 41. Complexity
  37. 43. Uncertainty <ul><li>Adopters’ experience </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Influence perception of next innovation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Competitors </li></ul><ul><li>Non-intended uses </li></ul><ul><li>Social and cultural events </li></ul><ul><li>Reinterpretations or re-inventions </li></ul>
  38. 44. Re-invention <ul><li>Degree to which an innovation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Is changed or modified </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>By third-party (users, mkt, competition)‏ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>During diffusion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>And implementation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>At least some degree of re-invention occurs at the implementation stage </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For many innovations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>And by many adopters </li></ul></ul>
  39. 45. Reinvention