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Change agents, Zeitgeist and Innovation
 

Change agents, Zeitgeist and Innovation

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From our Innovation course 2010

From our Innovation course 2010

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    Change agents, Zeitgeist and Innovation Change agents, Zeitgeist and Innovation Presentation Transcript

    • Understanding CHANGE
    • Where does change come from in our societies? Change agents: Human interventions, free-will Zeitgeist: Determinism, the ‘invisible hand’ Contingency: The ‘synchronisation’ of circumstances
    • What are the consequences of change? Anticipated or unanticipated Evidence that the person intended these consequences or not? Direct or indirect Does the change directly causes that impact or not? Desirable or undesirable Are the effects positive for the stakeholders?*
    • Rosa "Lee" Louise Parks U.S. Congress: “Mother of the Civil Rights Movement”  Famous for her refusal on December 1, 1955 to give up a bus seat to a white man when ordered to do so by the bus driver
    • • An unfair system • Not the first woman to do it • Not the first time she did it • An activist for 12 years • Husband supported her high-school studies th • Dec 4 is formed the Montgomery Improvement Association (MIA) leaded by Martin Luther King • “Montgomery Bus Boycott” unexpected response (381 days) • Sparked many other segregation protests in the USA • Many black churches were dynamited
    • Change agents are product of their time/society They 'trigger' changes but, ultimately, societies collectively decide if/when changes occur
    •  1893: World’s Exposition (Chicago), fascinated by a German chocolate-making exhibit  Purchased and shipped the equipment to Lancaster to produce chocolates  Hershey built a chocolate factory in Derry, PA (dairy farms)  Experimented with many flavours (onion, beet...)  Hershey specialized in the affordable “nickel” bar  Became the first nationally marketed product of its kind sold in grocery stores, newsstands, and vending machines  Built a residential town for the workers, a school for orphan boys, a medical center, an amusement park -today this city is named Hershey, Pennsylvania
    • Only selected information gets revealed...  Who were the first customers?  Who sold him the chocolate equipment in Chicago?  Who bought the Lancaster Caramel Company for 1million?  Who invested money on his businesses after 10 years of bankruptcy?
    • Who discovered penicillin? a) Ernst Boris Chain b) Alexander Fleming c) Howard Walter Florey d) all of the above e) none of them
    • “In 1929, I published that it would be useful for the treatment of infections with sensitive microbes, but few people paid any attention up to 1936. Chain and Florey took up the investigation and succeeded... beyond the wildest dreams I could possibly have had in those early days”
    • Penicillium notatum Westl.  Richard Westling (Swedish professor) discovered it in 1911 but did not publish its antibacterial power  Penicillin is not the first antibacterial, but the first antibacterial not antileucocytic (harmless)  Fleming saw its potential but was unable to produce a stable strain  Chain and Florey (Oxford) successfully treated mice and published in 1940, the world was at war  Huge investments enabled industrial production
    • Results: about 450,000 for "Alexander Fleming" Results: about 108,000 for "Ernst Chain" Results: about 97,800 for "Howard Florey" Results: about 6,420 for "Richard Westling"
    • Unexpected consequences Rosa Lee Parks Milton Hershey Alexander Fleming
    • Unexpected consequences Rosa Lee Parks  Overwhelming positive response in many cities Milton Hershey  Part of the obesity epidemics in children & diabetes Alexander Fleming  Bacteria resistance to penicillin from 'underdosing'
    • Diffusion of innovations
    • Diffusion Process by which  A new idea is communicated  Or spread in a social group  And becomes an innovation  Diffusion is a type of social change  Diffusion is behind ________________
    • Diffusion M-payment is not yet diffused in Mexico, so it's still a good idea, not an innovation!
    • Diffusion Herorat.org: training and using rats to sniff landmines in Africa is an innovation! (training process, adoption scheme)
    • The designed environment has an important role in social change: it creates opportunities and incentivates certain behaviours over others
    • Diffusion “The process by which new ideas become real solutions”  Solutions available to social groups  Adoption or rejection decisions  Consequences
    • Diffusion is uncertain Hard to predict how people will respond (future) Hard to interpret the reasons behind their choices (past)
    • Most new ideas/products are not diffused and adopted rapidly Even when they have obvious, proven advantages
    • $500 dollars
    • Diffusion curves  Sigmoid function  S-shape curves number of adopters time: cumulative adoption
    • Diffusion curves  ‘Tipping point’  At about 10 to 25% adoption*  ‘Inflection point’  At about 75 to 90% adoption* (Hard to distinguish start/end)
    • types of adopters time: cumulative adoption
    • The S-shape curve Once a few adopt, they tell others about the innovation and the number of adopters per unit of time takes off (word of mouth) Until the market potential decreases, influence becomes redundant and adoption slows down
    • Critical mass Point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation’s further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining That means: “Diffusion continues no matter what”
    • Adopter categories Early adopters Mass adopters Late adopters Laggards (avoid clichés)
    • Enabling strategies  Target opinion leaders  Shape individual’s perceptions of the innovation  Target early adopters first, but do not focus only on them  Provide incentives for adoption  Promote negotiation and interpretations  Any design strategies?
    • Different external influences 100 90 80 70 Constant critical mass, 60 different end result adopters 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 time Different aggregate influence 100 90 80 70 Varying critical mass, 60 adopters 50 same end result 40 30 20 10 0 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 time
    • “Zeitgeist” German for “spirit of the time” The intellectual and cultural 'climate' of an era Some experts attribute innovation to this “social order” that demands and values new solutions
    • Zeitgeist Rosa Lee Parks Milton Hershey Alexander Fleming
    • Zeitgeist Rosa Lee Parks  Mass-media, democracy, social changes, politics Milton Hershey  Middle class, mass production, supermarkets Alexander Fleming  War, research, bacteriology, chemistry, medicine
    • www.google.com/trends “What you see here is a cumulative snapshot of interesting queries people are asking over time that perhaps reveal a bit of the human condition”
    • “Zeitgeist” Refers to the “climate” of an era including: • Shared problems and issues • Shared beliefs and values • Open questions and debates • A particular state of technology • Comparison and acceptance of ideas (but be careful interpreting the results!)
    • “Zeitgeist” in innovation • Multiple discoveries or inventions (telephone, ADN) • Focus on a set of problems (household appliances in USA late XIX century) • “Spillover” effects: one innovation leads to many more • Patents, licensing and VC (venture capital) (dot-com bubble in 1999) • “Fertile ground” processes (Sushi-ito) • Competitions’ topics and judges (agendas) • Market, culture and aesthetic trends • Funding and media attention
    • Characteristics of innovations
    • Characteristics of innovations Relative advantage ● Perceived as a better solution Compatibility ● Perceived as consistent with values & experience Complexity ● Perceived as difficult to understand and use Trialability ● Experimented with on a limited basis Observability ● Results are visible to others Adaptability ● Value adapts to users' perceptions
    • Evidence shows that innovations that diffuse rapidly have: - greater perceived advantages - greater compatibility - greater trialability - greater observability - greater adaptability - less complexity
    • Trialability
    • Observability
    • Compatibility
    • Complexity
    • Adaptability
    • - individual activity- Write down how could you address the characteristics of innovations, diffusion and unexpected consequences in your Design Studio project...