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Victor Farlie - Making Sense of the Future

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Victor Farlie's opening keynote at Jisc WBL ACL Conference, 28 March 2024

Victor Farlie's opening keynote at Jisc WBL ACL Conference, 28 March 2024

Published in: Education, Travel, Business

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  • 1. JISC Conference Technology Innovation & Success: Making sense of the future.... Vic Farlie Exec Chair LWBLA 28th March 2014
  • 2. Why me? • Every time I change job the organisation keeps getting smaller……………………. • Should my 15 year old son be giving this presentation? • What’s the point of the LWBLA
  • 3. What does the LWBLA do? What we deliver is…………….. • Networking & Information What we value is our ………... • Transparency & Advocacy In future we will promote….. • Showcasing & Services
  • 4. Making sense of our future • The future for London’s economy? • A looming fiscal crisis for Post-16 education? • Can we survive - if so how? • How important is technology in all of this?
  • 5. London’s Economy: it’s business structure Business Size No of Employees % off all businesses Employment % of Total Turnover £ m. Share of Total No employees 615,995 76% 660,000 15% 49,516 5% Micro (1-9) 156,965 19% 578,000 13% 123,925 14% Small (10- 49) 27,185 3% 520,000 11% 135,196 15% Medium (50-249) 4,940 1% 497,000 11% 121,186 13% Large (250+) 1,345 0.2% 2,227,000 50% 471,704 52% Total 806,430 100% 4,482,000 100% 901,527 100% London Councils - March 2014 Source: Business Population Estimates, BIS
  • 6. London’s Economic ‘crane index’ • London’s employment rate has risen to 71.3 per cent – one of the highest employment rates for London since 1992. • London accounted for 29 per cent of the increase in the UK’s total employment in the quarter to December 2013. • Nearly a third of this rise occurring within the professional, scientific and technical sector alone. • The number of jobs in London stood at 5.353 million in the three months to September 2013 (the highest since this measure began in 1996). • London’s ILO unemployment rate in the three months to December 2013 was 8.1 per cent. This is down 0.6 percentage points on the previous quarter and down 0.4 percentage points on the year. Source: GLA Economics February 2014
  • 7. Uneven spatial implications of London’s changing labour market • Core inner London Boroughs net employment grew during the recession. • Over 50% of new jobs assume/require a degree as an entry level requirement. • Suburbs with structural unemployment in significant areas of North and South London. • Are there Boroughs failing to educate and employ - Croydon?
  • 8. Some philosophical questions • What’s the point of public policy in the absence of public money ? • Can institutional freedom + technology resolve the complex trade off between ‘wants and needs’? • What shape will London’s education be in 10 years time?
  • 9. Who said: “it is not the strongest or the most intelligent that will survive but those who can best manage change.” Charles Darwin
  • 10. London’s Post – 16 education Today Annually allocated over £1bn of tax payers money on Post 16 education providers across: • 400+ secondary schools. • 40+ independent FE Colleges. • 100+ apprenticeship providers.
  • 11. London’s has 2 Vocational Pathways • 80% classroom based. • 20% work based. But • 75% at or below level 2. Source; OECD 2013; A Skills beyond School Review of England (Page 19). • London has the wrong balance and range of vocational offer not the wrong funding model ‘per se’. • Yet Apprenticeships are 5% only the funding ‘cake’.
  • 12. London’s Looming Fiscal Crisis in Post- 16 education. • Not one budget cut but the aggregation of accumulated reductions in funding per learner continuing over the next 4 years. • Delivery models that require higher levels of expenditure to sustain both direct and indirect costs. • Customers voting with their feet in an era commentators describe as ‘rampant gentrification’.
  • 13. Investment in Technology: A transitional model Traditionally: • Designed to reduce costs. • Drive qualitative improvement in the service offer. • Invest in organisational ethos. Giving way to Transformative: • Radical structural change. • New organisational models.
  • 14. London by 2024: My prediction • London’s LEA’s shrink down from 32 to between 5 and 8 sub-regional commissioning areas. • The number of independent FE Colleges shrinks to under 20. • Employers and businesses routinely purchase training from specialist vocational experts. • Self funding is the primary driver of learner/customer decision making.