Problem solving & decision making


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  • Paired activity:Purpose: To make participants aware of the things which are within their control. Point: Proactive people always focus on what they can do vs. other/environment.Time: 05 MinutesMake a list of at least 10 aspects which are within your circle of control and 5 which are in the circle of concern.Each pair presents their findings.
  • What skills & qualities do you think, would a person require to make decisions? List down
  • 1. Knowledge/expertise in a given field: knowing your subject matter as well as your competition’s products and services will give you an edge in business as well as the ability to answer pointed knowledge provides a base to any decision and also helps to minimize the risk because then it becomes easier to evaluate all the parameters2. Past Experiences: Successful business leaders tend to be very observant and are exceptionally good at decision-making. Part of what makes them good at making the right decision quickly is their knowledge and past experiences. A executive acts fast, but not without clear intentions and strategic thought.Your past experiences, direct and indirect, is the raw material you use to make smart, strategic decisions. For this reason, it is very important to be fully vested in all that you do, hear and see. Those who pay attention and ‘live in the present” tend to be better decision makers.When it comes to decision making its not only your experience but other’s experience also helps a lot3. Communication skills: if you have to take some important decision and you missed some information in a previous conversation or meeting, don’t try to work around it. Go to the source and ask questions. The ensuing conversation will not only fill in the missing data, but it may lead to other insights that would otherwise be missed. Invite an opinionated friend over to strategize. Plenty of great ideas come from thought-provoking conversations.4. Self confidence: In decision making it is necessary to convince yourself first then only you will be able to convince others. When you are taking decision make sure that you have no regrets5. Analytical skills: Before taking any decision, it is necessary to have data in hand. Your analytical skills helps you to analyze, evaluate and then use the same data as a information6. Time management skills: If decisions are not taken timely, it may not solve the purpose7. Creativity: Creativity in decision making always helps to see problem and its alternatives from all angles. While taking decision it is always appreciable to think out of box
  • Kepner-Tregoe approach to decision analysis. StepsPrepare a decision statement having both an action and a result component.Establish strategic requirements (Musts), operational objectives (Wants), and restraints (Limits)Rank objectives and assign relative weights.Generate alternatives.Assign a relative score for each alternative on an objective-by-objective basis.Calculate a weighted score for each alternative and identify the top two or three.List adverse consequences for each top alternative and evaluate probability (high, medium, low) and severity (high, medium, low).Make a final, single choice between top alternatives
  • Problem solving & decision making

    2. 2. “We cannot solve our problemswith the same thinking we used when we created them” -Albert Einstein
    3. 3. Let’s Take a Decision
    4. 4. PROBLEM SOLVING• Problem - a discrepancy – current state-desired state• Decisions- Choices – Two or more alternatives• Decision Making – process of choice making
    5. 5. General model of problem solving• Identify problem• Define Objective• Make a predecision• Generate alternatives• Evaluate alternatives• Make a choice• Implement choice• Follow up
    6. 6. Types of Decisions• Programmed – Simple, routine; preestablished routines and procedures; lower level workers (usually alone)• Non programmed – Complex, creative; no prescriptions available, upper level supervisors (usually in groups)• Strategic – high level, non programmed, directions for organization
    7. 7. Types of Decisions• Certain vs. uncertain – knowledge of decision outcomes – probability of decision outcomes – information available• Uncertainty Reduction
    8. 8. Types of Decisions• top down vs. empowered• decentralisation• premises• computers
    9. 9. Individual differences in decision making• Directive – prefer simple, clear solutions – make decisions rapidly – don’t consider many alternatives – rely on existing rules
    10. 10. Individual differences in decision making• Analytical – prefer complex problems – carefully analyse alternatives – enjoy solving problems – willing to use innovative methods
    11. 11. Individual differences in decision making• Conceptual – socially oriented – humanistic and artistic approach – solve problems creatively – enjoy new ideas
    12. 12. Individual differences in decision making• Behavioural – concern for their organizations – interest in helping others – open to suggestions – rely on meetings
    13. 13. Moving away from the rational• bounded rationality• intuition• selective perception• halo effect• contrast effect• projection• stereotyping• self fulfilling profecy
    14. 14. Moving away from the rational• obvious candidate• garbage can model• self interests• enactment• training
    15. 15. Circle of Influence vs. Circle of Control Some things are within our control Circle Some things are outside our control but of they affect us Control When we keep working on our circle of control it expands Circle of Concern
    16. 16. Circle of concern / circle of influence All the things I care about All things that affect me All things that impact work Circle of Concern Circle of Influence All the things I can affect All things I can impact All things I can changeThe 7 Habits of Highly Effective People - Stephen Covey 16
    17. 17. Where is your focus? Circle of Concern Circle of Concern Circle of Circle of Influence Influence Reactive ProactiveThe 7 Habits of Highly Effective People - Stephen Covey 17
    18. 18. Basic Requirements of Decision making
    19. 19. Skills & Qualities Knowledge / expertise in a given field Past Experience Communication Skills Self Confidence/Conviction Analytical Skills Time Management Skills Creativity At last but not the least……….
    20. 20. Accountability & Onus
    21. 21. How do we make Decisions?
    22. 22. Six Cs of Decision Making1. Construct - a clear picture of precisely what must be decided2. Compile - a list of requirements that must be met3. Collect - information on alternatives that meet the requirements4. Compare - alternatives that meet the requirements5. Consider - the "what might go wrong" factor with each alternative6. Commit - to a decision and follow through with it
    23. 23. Decision Filters When WhoProblem Faced Dilemma Decisions Why What How (Implementation)
    24. 24. The Decision-Making Process Implement theDefine the Evaluate chosen Problem Alternatives AlternativeGather facts and Select the best Follow up and evaluate develop alternative. the chosen alternative. alternatives.
    25. 25. Let’s Take Another Decision
    26. 26. Problem Solution• Analyzing the Problem• Defining the Problem• Identify the Causes• Generating Solutions• Decision
    27. 27. Analyze the Problem• Key Issues• Ideal Outcomes• Avoid Judgments
    28. 28. Defining the Problem• Why it is Problem?• What type of problem is it ?• How urgent is the problem?• What are the consequences ?
    29. 29. Causes• Mindset• Environment• Inability• Lack of Experience
    30. 30. Generating Solutions• Optimal Solution• Maximum Gain / Minimum Loss• Predictions (Trial and Error)
    31. 31. Decisions• What is the probability of success?• Be Confident• Avoid Dilemmas• Forecast• Choose alternative which best meets the criteria.
    32. 32. Problem Solving TestHow Good are You At Problem Solving
    33. 33. InterpretationScore Comment You probably tend to view problems as negatives, instead of seeing them as opportunities to make exciting and necessary change. Your approach to problem solving is more intuitive than systematic, and this may have led to36-55 some poor experiences in the past. With more practice, and by following a more structured approach, youll be able to develop this important skill and start solving problems more effectively right away.56-75 Your approach to problem solving is a little "hit-and-miss." Sometimes your solutions work really well, and other times they dont. You understand what you should do, and you recognize that having a structured problem-solving process is important. However, you dont always follow that process. By working on your consistency and committing to the process, youll see significant improvements75 & You are a confident problem solver. You take time to understand the problem,above understand the criteria for a good decision, and generate some good options. Because you approach problems systematically, you cover the essentials each time – and your decisions are well though out, well planned, and well executed. You can continue to perfect your problem-solving skills and use them for continuous improvement initiatives within your organization.
    34. 34. Let’s Call It A Day
    35. 35. Let’s Call It A Day
    36. 36. Share Your Experience• 1 incident when problem was solved by you• 1 incident when you were not able to solve the problem
    37. 37. The 7 Habits of Highly Successful PeopleStephen R. Covey, Simon & Schuster, Inc., 1989• Be Proactive - take the initiative• Visualize the end from the start - know where you’re going• List priorities (Put first thing first)• Think WIN/WIN• Understand -- listen, listen, listen / learn, learn, learn (SEEK FIRST TO UNDERSTAND, THEN BE UNDERSTOOD)• Synergize -- make the whole more than the sum of the parts• Personal Renewal (SHARPENING THE SAW)
    38. 38. Problem solving ?Two wilderness hikers chanced upon a fierce grizzly bear.One of them pulled his running shoes from his pack andrapidly laced them up. His companion yelled in astonishment,“Are you crazy? You can’t outrun a bear.”His reply as he took off down the trail,“I don’t have to outrun the bear.All I have to do is outrun you.”Defining the real problem. A difficult task!
    39. 39. Problem Solving Test4 Square QuestionsB A Look carefully to the diagram Now I will ask you 4 questions about this square. Are you ready?C D 1
    40. 40. The Kepner-Tregoe (K.T.) method• The Kepner-Tregoe (K.T.) method• Problems are rated according to:• • Timing (urgency)• • Trend (potential for growth or disaster)• • Impact (how serious; how will it affect others?)• High (H); Medium (M); Low (L)• Also, what type of K.T. to carry out?• Problem analysis (PA);• Decision analysis (DA);• Potential Problem analysis (PPA)• Core K.T. ideas:• Things were OK; they’re not now. What’s changed?• Something distinguishes• what is a problem and• what is not.• Who was involved?• Who was not?• Why was it important?• Why is it unimportant?• How was the conclusion reached?
    41. 41. Kepner-Tregoe approach to decision analysis - Steps• Prepare a decision statement having both an action and a result component.• Establish strategic requirements (Musts), operational objectives (Wants), and restraints (Limits)• Rank objectives and assign relative weights.• Generate alternatives.• Assign a relative score for each alternative on an objective-by-objective basis.• Calculate a weighted score for each alternative and identify the top two or three.• List adverse consequences for each top alternative and evaluate probability (high, medium, low) and severity (high, medium, low).• Make a final, single choice between top alternatives.
    42. 42. Fish Bone Approach
    43. 43. “Thinking-- The Ultimate Human Resource”• We can always improve our thinking skills.• Confused thinking arises from trying to do too much at once.• We should emphasize what can be, not what is.
    44. 44. Six Hats• There are six different imaginary hats that you can put on or take off.• Think of the “hats” as thinking icons.• Each hat is a different color and represents a different type or mode of thinking.• We all wear the same hat (do the same type of thinking) at the same time.• When we change hats -we change our thinking.• Edward De Bono M.D., Ph.D., (philosophy, medicine & psychology), Rhodes scholar
    45. 45. Six hats is parallel thinking
    46. 46. The blue hat• Thinking about thinking• Instructions for thinking• The organization of thinking• Control of the other hats• Discipline and focus
    47. 47. The blue hat role• Control of thinking & the process• Begin & end session with blue hat• Facilitator, session leader’s role• Choreography – open, sequence, close – Focus: what should we be thinking about – Asking the right questions – Defining & clarifying the problem – Setting the thinking tasks
    48. 48. Open with the blue hat…• Why we are here• what we are thinking about• definition of the situation or problem• alternative definitions• what we want to achieve• where we want to end up• the background to the thinking• a plan for the sequence of hats
    49. 49. …and close with the blue hat• What we have achieved• Outcome• Conclusion• Design• Solution• Next steps
    50. 50. White Hat Thinking• Neutral, objective information• Facts & figures• Questions: what do we know, what don’t we know, what do we need to know• Excludes opinions, hunches, judgements• Removes feelings & impressions• Two tiers of facts – Believed Facts – Checked Facts
    51. 51. Red Hat Thinking• Emotions & feelings• Hunches, intuitions, impressions• Doesn’t have to be logical or consistent• No justifications, reasons or basis• All decisions are emotional in the end
    52. 52. Yellow Hat Thinking• Positive & speculative• Positive thinking, optimism, opportunity• Benefits• Best-case scenarios• Exploration
    53. 53. Green Hat Thinking• New ideas, concepts, perceptions• Deliberate creation of new ideas• Alternatives and more alternatives• New approaches to problems• Creative & lateral thinking
    54. 54. Black Hat Thinking• Cautious and careful• Logical negative – why it won’t work• Critical judgement, pessimistic view• Separates logical negative from emotional• Focus on errors, evidence, conclusions• Logical & truthful, but not necessarily fair
    55. 55. Six hats summaryBlue: control & organization of thinkingWhite: objective facts & figuresRed: emotions & feelingsYellow: hope, positive & speculativeGreen: creativity, ideas & lateral thinkingBlack: cautious & careful
    56. 56. Force Field Analysis
    57. 57. Activity Time• BCCI Selection Committee