Stock call (comi.ca - the third bear market phase may run its course soon) oct 11, 2011
STOCK CALL JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE Tuesday, October 11, 2011COMMERCIAL INTERNATIONAL BANK RIC: COMI.CATHE THIRD BEAR MARKET PHASE MAY RUN ITS COURSE SOONWe want in this bulletin to enlarge our view. We need not to restrict our considera-tion to the current move, because when we try to identify the characteristics of thecurrent move, it seems illogical to me saying that only a secondary correction phaseis taking place without any hint to the context at which the move is materializing . Itseems to me more than just a regular, healthy and secondary correction in the contextof a bull market. I can believe that a secular bull market, which initiated early at2003, is still in force and may continue for some years to come.Guys, we are in bear market; it can be short or turned to be a prolonged move. Put-ting the panic phase aside, don’t expect a noticeably pick up in activity until the accu-mulation phase, which didnt materialized yet, come to an end.It’s nice seeing the bear market move adhere somehow to the bear-market three phas-es Pictorial characteristics. It has been applied most exclusive to market averages but,that doesnt means we cannot pick one in an important big-cap security which domi-nates the average to an acceptable degree.Most farsighted investors regarded the security near EGP45.0 as an “overvalued”,started distribution while the “public” were still active as the volume imply. Abreakout below a horizontal line (EGP41.25) was a trigger signal that something ex-tremely bearish is underway. Here we come to the second phase; the “panic phase”. Itneeds nothing but to see the straight line decline and the climactic proportions in vol-ume histogram with your naked eyes . Most amazingly, the panic move found sup-port at just the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a rebound ( a secondary recoveryafter most panic moves) was also violent but fall short off the early 2008 major re-sistance level. Taking out the Fibonacci level, the last defense line, increased theprobability that something more than healthy correction is taking place. Continue... 1
STOCK CALL JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE Tuesday, October 11, 2011COMMERCIAL INTERNATIONAL BANK RIC: COMI.CAContinued…It was in fact a significant breakout, it had threatened both the last defense Fibonaccilevel and the most moderate rising trend line. Keep adding bearish pieces to the bear-ish puzzle wasnt weird manifestation at all knowing that the security was near theend of, the “Panic Phase”The third and last phase, which we think that the security is experiencing right now,named a “ Discouraged Selling” phase. This phase always accompanies by a“Deterioration in Business News” …. ;-) The characteristic of this phase, as the nameimplies, is a deceleration in the selling power; the security is declining and attaininglower levels, but in fact the “speed” of the decline is decelerating. We can say alsothat “it’s not the power of the bears that pulls the security down, but it’s the lack ofbuying power which keep the security down”With momentum help, we became very sure about “Deceleration”. “Triple positivedivergence” signal in the RSI isnt a usual manifestation we used to see, but it’s sucha comprehensive prove that the security in its last stage of decline.The Bear Market ends when everything in the way of possible bad news, the worst tobe expected, has been discounted, and it is usually over before all the bad news is“out.” —- Edward & Magee ……. So, it seems that we have found it finally. Wehave more than one proof that the security experiencing the " ast Phase” of a bear Lmarket, we’re waiting for the worst news to be discounted, a decline below currentlevels should come with no surprise, but a bounce off a declining support line is high-ly predictable. We’ll be sure that the current price is expressing or discounting theworst news after taking out a declining blue resistance line (EGP27.20), but as thedown side risk compared to the expected return shows a favorable investment oppor-tunity, we advise long-term investors to ….BOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP23.15) ACCUMULATE 2
STOCK CALL JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE Tuesday, October 11, 2011 Jazira Securities Brokerage Jazira Securities Online Trading 15 Shooting Club Street, Mohandessin You can trade online through Jazira Securities online Tel: (+202) 3760 9983 - 37609941 trading portal ... Fax: (+202) 3760 9883 www.jaziracapital.com Please contact our customer Service representatives for further information..JSB Contacts Title Land Line Mobile EmailHussein El Sawalhy, CFA Managing Director +202 2578 0931/2 +20100 1410 690 email@example.comAhmed Helmy Head of Sales & Trading +202 2576 0188 +20100 1004 482 firstname.lastname@example.orgMohamed Fahmy Head of Research +202 2578 0931/2 +20122 2157 312 email@example.comRamy Rashad, CMT Senior Technical Analyst +202 2578 09 31/2 +20100 8385 501 firstname.lastname@example.orgBasant Soror Online Trading Technical Support +202 2578 09 31/2 +20122 1615 409 email@example.comGeorge Mansour Customer Service +202 2578 09 30 +20122 9214 069 firstname.lastname@example.orgDoaa Osman Customer Service +202 2578 09 30 +20122 7552 436 email@example.com Disclaimer Jazira Securities Brokerage (JSB) is a licensed Egyptian Stock Market Broker, regulated by the Egyptian Financial Service Authority. Opinions, estimates and projections contained in the research reports or documents are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice JSB research reports or documents are not, and are not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Unless otherwise noted, all JSB research reports and documents provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor. Neither JSB nor its mother company (Jazira Capital), or any of its affiliates accept liability whatsoever for any investment loss arising from any use of the research reports or their contents. The information and opinions contained in JSB research reports or documents have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. JSB, Jazira Capital or any of its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell securities mentioned herein as principal or agent. JSB research reports and all the information opinions and conclusions contained in them are protected by copyright. The research reports or documents may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part without express consent of JSB Research. JSB research reports or documents, recommendations and information are subject to change without further notice . 3
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