Prieto post disaster reconstruction model 03 27 13

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Post disaster reconstruction changes each element of the standard construction model and activities normally undertaken in more conventional periods are modified not only by post-disaster logistics …

Post disaster reconstruction changes each element of the standard construction model and activities normally undertaken in more conventional periods are modified not only by post-disaster logistics constraints but in turn modify post-disaster logistics themselves. In a pre-disaster environment we can simplistically describe construction as occurring within a simple model that includes a set of project inputs which are transformed at a project site, within a well defined framework, to deliver the desired project outputs. Post disaster, each of these elements are significantly modified.
This paper examines how the traditional construction model is changed post-disaster and provides a framework for not only considering construction in a post-disaster environment but also a guide for improving the resiliency of our various frameworks to deal with such eventualities.

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  • 1. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -1-A POST DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION MODELBob PrietoFluor103 Carnegie Center; Suite 300Princeton, NJ 085401.609.919.6376; bob.prieto@fluor.comABSTRACT:Post disaster reconstruction changes each element of the standard construction model andactivities normally undertaken in more conventional periods are modified not only by post-disaster logistics constraints but in turn modify post-disaster logistics themselves. In a pre-disaster environment we can simplistically describe construction as occurring within a simplemodel that includes a set of project inputs which are transformed at a project site, within a welldefined framework, to deliver the desired project outputs. Post disaster, each of these elementsare significantly modified.This paper examines how the traditional construction model is changed post-disaster andprovides a framework for not only considering construction in a post-disaster environment butalso a guide for improving the resiliency of our various frameworks to deal with sucheventualities.
  • 2. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -2-Post disaster reconstruction is an inevitable human activity. Well meaning people come togetherwith deep passion and commitment to face a situation of destruction and suffering and with a setof social and physical frameworks that as a minimum have been significantly modified and as amaximum shattered beyond recognition. Post disaster reconstruction brings out the best in peoplebut also at times the worst. It is in this condition where constraints, change and uncertainty arethe norm that the engineering and construction industry is challenged to restore and rebuild andif done well, better prepared to meet tomorrow’s challenges.Disasters change each element of the standard construction model and activities normallyundertaken in more conventional periods are modified not only by post-disaster logisticsconstraints but in turn modify post-disaster logistics themselves.In a separate paper at this conference we look at resiliency, its identification, assessmentand tracking. In that assessment it is important to understand how well we are prepared whenall other planning and protection has been overwhelmed. That understanding is aided byrecognizing that the post-disaster construction setting can differ significantly to the pre-disastercondition and frameworks.A SIMPLIFIED CONSTRUCTION MODELIn a pre-disaster environment we can simplistically describe construction as occurring within asimple model that includes a set of project inputs which are transformed at a project site, within awell defined framework, to deliver the desired project outputs. Framework elements include:− Business framework− Project environment and setting− Social and stakeholder framework− Economic and political frameworks
  • 3. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -3-Post disaster, each of these elements are significantly modified. Let’s look at each element to seehow it is modified post disaster starting with project inputs themselves.Figure 1. Project Inputs
  • 4. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -4-Project InputsEach of the basic inputs from a simplified construction model (labor, materials, equipment) ismodified post-disaster and several new input considerations become significant. These modifiedand new input factors are reflected in Figure 1 and include:• Labor− New management skills− Skilled labor requirements changed/expanded− Large unskilled labor pool mobilization− Labor sourcing (Global or select nationals)• Materials− Material requirements and sequencing changed− Quantities disrupted supply chains− Challenging logistics• Equipment− Sourcing− Maintenance during construction− Trained operators• Knowledge of Post-Disaster Construction• Subcontractor Finance• Non-Process Infrastructure− Traditional housing, provision, and utility services disrupted or inadequate− Logistic facilities disrupted or inadequate
  • 5. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -5-• Modified Safety Practices for Post-Disaster Environment− Unknown conditions− Specialized craft training− Changed work sequences• Stronger Management Systems Role− Commercial transactions− Labor documentation and payroll− Augmented work face planning and managementSimilarly the various framework elements are subject to modified or added components whichact to shape post disaster project management in ways not encountered in non-disaster scenarios.Let’s look at each of the framework elements in turn and how the various components aremodified post-disaster.Disaster Changes Business FrameworkDisaster changes the business framework, introducing new factors into basic constructioncontract considerations, significantly altering risk frameworks that the program or project teammay experience, creating new de facto owner groups different than those the engineering andconstruction team and broader community may be used to engaging with, and creating newchallenges with various labor organizations.Specific modifications to the “simplified” model are reflected in Figure 2 and may include:• Contract− Scope includes more unknowns and potentially evolving requirements− Schedule based on potential continuing risk events, degraded labor productivity, uncertainsupply chains, and evolving approval frameworks− Budgets based on uncertain labor, equipment, and material costs accounting forcompetition for constrained resources− Quality standards must consider risks and intended usage and duration
  • 6. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -6-• Risk Framework− Significantly changed risk profile must be reflected in terms and conditions• Owners− External funding agencies may assume de facto owner’s role• Labor Organizations and Agreements− Existing agreements may create barriers to recovery− Potential for labor strife as external workforce mobilizedFigure 2. Business FrameworkDisaster Changes Project and Environmental Setting FrameworkDisasters, in particular broader scale disasters, fundamentally alter the project and environmentalsetting. Site access will be constrained in new and potentially evolving ways, basic site andregional geography may be fundamentally modified and the regional infrastructure, at whateverlevel, that projects rely on to meet many of their basic needs may now be non-existent. Basicassumptions under the “simplified” pre-disaster model are no longer valid.
  • 7. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -7-Changes to the various components of this framework element are seen in Figure 3 and include:• Project Site− Constrained access− Denied access− Uncertain ownership or other property rights• Geography− Modified topography (floods, landslides, or mudslides; earthquake displacement; lavafields; aftermath of military action)− Terrain limits rate of response or reconstruction− Accessibility constrains available options• Climate− Adverse climactic conditions impact response activities (continuing hurricane season,seasonal extremes of temperature or precipitation)− Event of scale necessitates construction in non-traditional time periods (monsoon, depth ofwinter, peak of summer)• Regional Infrastructure− Widespread destruction of regional infrastructures important to response andreconstruction (roads and rails washed away, bridges severely damaged or destroyed,airports rendered unusable, destroyed power generation and transmission capability,destroyed or degraded potable water treatment and distribution capability, degradedwastewater capability, constrained telecom services from facility damage)− Regional infrastructure inadequate for level and nature of response and rebuildingactivities• Social Infrastructures Disrupted or Destroyed− Housing, medical, police, fire, sanitation− Banking and other financial institutions
  • 8. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -8-• Records and Documentation− Lost records− As-builts no longer meaningful− Property rights not well documented or inconsistent with social realities (squatterpopulations)• Codes and Standards− Evolving as a result of event of scale− Variable – affected by donor/funder requirementsFigure 3. Project Environment and SettingDisaster Changes Social and Stakeholder FrameworkSocial and stakeholder frameworks undergo some of the most significant changes post-disaster,often in ways that are not readily visible. These changes impact each of the components thatcomprise this framework element. Traditional problem resolution mechanisms may breakdownand new sources of concern or conflict emerge. Displaced populations, transient relief andreconstruction populations and a re-emergence or strengthening of cultural or tribal issuescompound the difficulty in undertaking the engineering and construction activities needed to
  • 9. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -9-respond and reconstruct post-disaster. Often the debilitating and corrosive impacts of corruptionare more sharply felt.Changes to specific framework components are shown in Figure 4 and include:• Organized Stakeholders− Traditional stakeholder groups dysfunctional− Stakeholder objectives evolving− New stakeholder groups emerging− National or international stakeholders gain roles to enable or intervene• Demographics− Loss and displacement of populations− Impact of relief, response, and reconstruction populations− Constraints on construction labor• Cultural/Religious− Transitional roles often played by cultural or religious groups− Cultural and religious sensitivities often elevated− Tribal issues and prerogatives may resurface• Ownership Rights− Lack of documentation and records− Conflicting claims− Formal versus informal rights− Confiscation in the absence of the rule of law− Corruption
  • 10. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -10-Figure 4. Social and Stakeholder FrameworkDisaster Changes Economic and Political FrameworkThe destructive impact of a disaster on economic activity that existed pre-disaster is easy tounderstand. Harder to come to grips with is the trajectory of economic activity post-disaster. Thistrajectory is often shaped by political functionality and the extension of politics into every aspectof life and every decision essential to post-disaster relief and recovery. Examples of changes inthe various components of this final framework element are shown in Figure 5 and include:• Rule of Law− Confiscation and security risks elevated due to lack of rule of law− Emergency decrees inconsistently interpreted and applied− Local laws of convenience− Corruption
  • 11. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -11-• Regulations− Regulations not relevant to situation on ground or act to impede progress− Traditional regulations extended to situation for which they were not designed• Financial Institutions− Absent or disrupted− Emergence of a cash economy− Difficulty paying suppliers and labor• Project Funding− Color of money issues associated with multiple funding sources and tied requirements− Documentation requirements evolve− Lack of on-the-ground payment capability by donors− Lack of timeliness of payments• Politics− Politics in traditionally non-political activities− Every activity potentially someone’s political platform− Long-range planning efforts begun anew affecting critical decisions− Economic development a core consideration− Capacity building may be an imperative• Sustainability and Resilience− Life-cycle focus may emerge
  • 12. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -12-Figure 5. Economic and Political FrameworkPost-Disaster Project and Construction ActivityPost-disaster project and construction activity must now occur at a site where traditional inputsand project frameworks have been modified and special challenges such as those shown inFigure 6 are present. These special challenges include debris removal and potential reuse tomitigate ever present logistical challenges; changed psychology both with respect to decisionmaking and risk taking but also with respect to a labor force that itself may be displaced orsuffering the loss of close relatives; and changed liability concerns as one of the first things togrow post-disaster is uncertainty which is a root cause of much liability.I have already touched upon the corrosive effects of corruption which may be controlled orcompounded by governmental leadership and enablement. These are real issues as are thoserelated to human and construction safety. The construction environment is inherently dangerousand post-disaster uncertainties only exacerbate these concerns.
  • 13. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -13-Figure 6. Special ChallengesFinally, post-disaster construction activities face modified output requirements from moretraditional non-disaster construction.Post-Disaster Construction OutputsTraditional construction activities are traditionally focused on creating new facilities, usually“permanent” in nature. Post-disaster, constructed projects may take on a wider range of timeframes including temporary, transitional and permanent dimensions.Pressures to use disaster debris in construction may modify certain design and constructionchoices and considerations related to not adding to this material problem are only heightenedpost-disaster. Social dimensions of the “triple bottom line” of sustainability take on increasedimportance as part of the overall disaster recovery process.Specific changes to post-disaster outputs are reflected in Figure 7 and include:
  • 14. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -14-• Completed Project− Temporary− Transitional− Permanent• Construction Waste− Linkage to debris considerations (disposal and reuse in construction)− Recycling drivers• Sustainability− Capacity building− Economic development− New industry creation− Enhanced resiliency− Lessons learned and best practices
  • 15. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -15-Figure 7. Project OutputsPost-disaster engineering and construction program and project management activities aresignificantly modified from non-disaster activities. Changes to the fundamental project modelemployed in the management of these types of programs and projects requires a fundamental re-think of skill sets, management processes, risks and constraints.In addition these changes collectively significantly change the logistical characteristics of suchprograms while simultaneously significantly modifying the broader logistical space within whichthe disaster has occurred. Even the most basic project activities have the potential to significantlyaffect project and regional logistics and even the best intentioned relief and recovery activitieshave the ability to impact response and recovery in today’s highly engineered, built environment.Consideration, awareness and incorporation of the numerous changed factors above will beassessed in this subassembly.The challenges of this changed environment can be met through concerted action. Specificrecommendations include:• Government and NGO community must plan for assisting in post-disaster recovery• Engagement with engineering and construction community must begin pre-disaster
  • 16. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -16-− Pre-placed contracts♦ Program management♦ EPC♦ Supply chain− Earliest mobilization to disaster zone− Early activation of logistics chains• Post-disaster period requires streamlined decision frameworks− Decision authorities at project and disaster site− Logistical-affecting processes may act as barrier in post-disaster scenario♦ Examples are customs, building permits, and liability legislation♦ Consider a standard “modified” logistical template for local government consideration• “Go-bys”• Best practicesPREPAREDNESS ASSESSMENT – PART OF RESILIENCY ASSESSMENTKey to long term learning and preparation for the inevitable “next event” is the performance of aPreparedness Assessment. This process acts to ensure that we have truly learned from andprovided for the vital lessons we have learned through each stage of the post-event period. As wehave moved through the post-event period not only will our insights have become deeper but sotoo will our perspective on some of the actions we undertook at the earliest stages of the post-event response.• Did decisions on ruble disposal create delays or unneeded costs during the transition phase orreconstruction phase?• Did temporary infrastructure decisions result in wasted efforts when permanent fixes couldhave been accomplished for marginally more time or money?• Did management frameworks established at the earliest stages of the post-disaster periodrepresent barriers for efficient reconstruction?
  • 17. Prieto Post Disaster Reconstruction Model 03 27 13.docx -17-The list of post-event lesson learned questions goes on. But more important may be whetherwhat we have rebuilt will provide a better pre-event condition that what existed before the lastevent, or have we merely reconstructed a built environment the sows the seeds for shortfalls inresponding to the next event of scale.The inherent ability to recover from off normal events must consider prior owner or programspecific lessons learned as well as review against a database of such lessons learned. Have wecreated that database?At the end of the day, successful program design and program risk assessment leads to programresiliency, defined as an:• Ability to avoid or resist “risks”• Ability to respond to those “risks” which do emerge• Ability to recover from severe impact events such as Black SwansThe taxonomy of each aids in forming an ontology from a global perspective. The taxonomy orontology can be considered a normalized view without constraints imposed by individualmanagement or analysis tools.This paper lays out a taxonomy for considering one key element of the recovery stage, namelyreconstruction. It should be considered in the broader context of identifying, assessing andtracking resiliency.