Slides from the lessons to URBEUR-QUA_SI PhD students - University of Milano Bicocca (prof.R.Polillo)

1. May 12, 2014
University of Milano Bicocca
URBEUR-QUASI PhD Programme
The evolution of the
Web
Part I: The story
Roberto Polillo
Department of Informatics, Systems and Communications
University of Milano Bicocca
1

2. Our goal: to discuss the evolution of the Web
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3
 Part I (today): The story
A summary of the milestones / paradigms of
the evolution of the Web: 1990-today
 Part II (next Monday): The driving forces
A summary of market mechanisms that drive
the growth of the Web online services

3. R.Polillo, May 2014
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"You cannot step into the same river twice"
"Change alone is unchanging"
Heraclitus

4. The evolution of the Web
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 From the first Web site (1991), the Web is
continuously growing and changing its nature
 In parallel, telephony is drastically changed
(fixed → mobile)
 Drivers of this evolution: tecnology, market,
people behaviour

5. Four Internet paradigms
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1995+
 Corporate sites
 Web portals
 Search engines
 E-commerce
 Web as an interface
 ….
HYPERTEXT,
eCOMMERCE
2005+
 Blogs
 Social networks
 UGC
 Cooperative
creation
 Sharing
 Reusable contents
 …
SOCIAL MEDIA
1985
+
 E-mail
 File transfer
 Newsgroups
 ….
COMMUNICATION
NETWORK

6. 2015+
MOBILE WEB
 Mobile devices
 Cloud computing
 Geolocalzation
 Camera phone
 Augmented reality
 Electronic wallet
Four Internet paradigms
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Mobile devices
Desktop + laptop
Worldwide installed base

7. Growth8
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8. Web sites growth (world)
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Source:
http://gandalf.it/dati
millions
Active sites
"Dead"sites

9. Web sites languages
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage
(April 2013)

10. Internet host growth (World)
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Source: Internet Systems Consortium, from Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage

11. Internet users growth (World)
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Source: ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2013
(onlinte)

12. Growth of .it domains
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13 thousands
Source:
http://gandalf.it/dati

13. Internet traffic growth (World)
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14
http://gizmodo.com/5614841/
web
video
p2p

14. Nature of Internet traffic
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Da Wired

15. Paradigm #1: Web 1.016
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16. Web 1.0
MS Explorer
Amazon
eBay
IPO Netscape
1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001
2002
First web site
at
CERN
W3C
Netscape Navigator
Yahoo
Mosaic
Google
Mozilla
Napster
Paypal
Max
NASDAQ
9/11
Min
NASDAQ
Nasdaq Composite Index
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17. Web 1.0: main characteristics
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 Site content produced by site publisher
 Hierarchical organization and navigation thru menu
 Single user ↔ web site interaction
 Interaction with data bases
 "Closed" services (“get the user and keep her within
site”)

18. Narrowband connection
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19. Web 1.0 Web sites
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 Corporate Web sites
 Portals and search engines
 eCommerce
 [Enterprise portals]

20. Corporate Web sites
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 Target: customers, investors, press, general
public
 Who & where we are, what we do, our
products / services, [online sales]

21. Portals
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 Access to set of online resources
 Thematic "channels"
 General portals vs "vortals"
 Personalization (“myPortal”)
 Very large developments in late '90s
 www.yahoo.com
from 1994, always among the first 5 more visited sites

22. Short history of Yahoo!
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 1996: http://web.archive.org/web/19961022175643/http://www10.yahoo.com/
 1999: http://web.archive.org/web/19990208021636/http://www12.yahoo.com/
 2001: http://web.archive.org/web/20011108000033/http://www.yahoo.com/
 2003 http://web.archive.org/web/20031211113526/http://www.yahoo.com/
 2005 http://web.archive.org/web/20051220154406/http://www.yahoo.com/?
 2007: http://web.archive.org/web/20071229022936/http://www.yahoo.com/
 2010: http://web.archive.org/web/20101016230535/http://www.yahoo.com/
 Today: www.yahoo.com
http://www.archive.org/ (from 1996)

23. Italy: the beginning
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VideoOnLine (Grauso, 1994 → Tin.it, 1996)
(1996)

24. Enterprise portals
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Internal to organization:
 Document management
 Internal communication
 Internal procedures and forms
 Front-end to corporate information systems
Private corporate networks slowly adopt Internet
protocols ("intranet")

25. E-commerce: main success stories
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 http://www.amazon.com from 1995
Current size:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=amazon.com
 http://www.ebay.com from 1995
Current size:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ebay.com

26. The "dot.com bubble"27
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27. IPO (Initial Public Offering) frenzy
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 dot.com frenzy started by Netscape IPO (Aug 9, 1995)
 Founded 18 months earlier
 16 M$ revenues, no profit
 Market cap at IPO: 1 B$ (!)
 Large venture capital, to bring startups to IPO
 Many irrealistic business models
 NASDAQ bubble, then fall (2000-2001)
 Silicon Valley stops completely

28. The "dot.com bubble”
MS Explorer
Amazon
eBay
IPO Netscape
1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001
2002
First web
site at
CERN
W3C
Netscape Navigator
Yahoo
Mosaic
Google
Mozilla
Napster
Paypal
Max
NASDAQ
9/11
Min
NASDAQ
Nasdaq Composite Index
March 10
2000: index at
5132
March 10
2000: index at
5132
Oct 9 2002:
index at 1114
Oct 9 2002:
index at 1114
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29. R.Polillo, May 2014
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But the life continues….

30. Paradigm #2: Web 2.031
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31. Web 2.0: birth of a name
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 First O’Reilly Media Web 2.0 Conference (Oct 2004)
 The Internet community realizes that the Web is changed…

32. Web 2.0 key aspects
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Social media:
 The user is the leading actor
 User interaction throu the Web: one-to-many (blog), many-to-many
(social media)
 Services to host User Generated Content (UGC), to be shared with other
users
 Collective creation
 User rating in e-commerce
 "Market are conversations" (Cluetrain manifesto, 1999-2000)
The Web as a computing platform:
 Online services, virtualization
 Perpetuale beta
 Component and service mashups
 Rich Internet Applications (RIA) technologies

33. Web 2.0
2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12
Twitter,
Slideshare,
Scribd
Google
DocsYouTube
,
Joomla,
NingFlickr,
Facebook
Skype
WordPress
Blogger
LinkedIn iPhone
Groupon
Android,
Dropbox
Foursquar
e
WhatsApp
iPad,
Pinterest
Instagram
Google+
Wikipedi
a
(In red start of mobile
Web)
Internet
traffic
video
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34. Xmas 2006
Media acknowledge the paradigm change
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35. Top 5 sites (Q4/09 – Q1/13)
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Source: Alexa

36. Another bubble?
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Netscape IPO
Google IPO
Aug 19 2004
LinkedIn IPO
(NYSE)
Facebook IPO
Twitter IPO
(NYSE)
199
4
199
5
199
7
199
6
March 10 2000:
5049
(Indice Nasdaq 1994-2013)

37. In the meanwhile, telephony changes…38
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38. Fasi della storia del Web
39
FirstW
eb
site
atCERN
M
osaic
(N
CSA)
W
3C;N
etscape
N
avigator
Netscape
IPO
,,M
S
Explorer,Am
azon,eBay
Boom
and
fallofNASD
AQ
G
oogle
IPO
;Facebook
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0990 10 11 12
WEB 1.0 WEB 2.0crisisPre-history
G
oogle
founded
9/11;W
ikipedia
Financialcrisi
iPhone,Android
Tw
itter
iPad
FB
IPO
Nasdaq Composite Index
YouTube
Internet
traffic
video

39. R.Polillo, May 201440
SMS
2 G
Nokia
5110
GSM (candybar)
SMS, watch, sveglia,
rubrica, calcolatrice,
rubrica, giochi, suonerie
MMS
WAP
2.5 G
Motorola
V3 RAZR
"Feature phone"
GPRS (candybar,
clamshell) +
MMS,,photocamera,
email, (Internet)
Touch phone
iPhone
+ multitouch,
sensors, GPS,
app, …
3 G
Blackberry
"Smartphone"
+ alphanumeric kb,
PDA, video, GPS,
radio, MP3, OS, …TELEFONIA
MOBILE
TIM,
Omnitel
FirstW
eb
site
atCERN
M
osaic
(N
CSA)
W
3C;N
etscape
N
avigator
Netscape
IPO
,,M
S
Explorer,Am
azon,
Boom
and
fallofNASD
AQ
G
oogle
IPO
;Facebook
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0990 10 11 12G
oogle
founded
9/11;W
ikipedia
Financialcrisi
iPhone,Android
Tw
itter
iPad
FB
IPO
YouTube

40. IP telephony
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 Skype
 Internet based video-telephony, free
 Starting 2003, acquired by eBay in 2005, then by
Microsoft in 2011 (8,5 B$)
 2012: 700 ml accounts; one third of all international
calls pass through Skype
 Jan 2013: 50 ml concurrent users
 WhatsApp
 Free SMS via IP
 Started in 2009, acquired by Facebook in 2014 (19
B$)

41. The "mobile miracle"
R.Polillo, May 201442
ITU, Measuring the Information Society
2012
Mobile cellular subscriptions
6 years gap
ITU, Measuring the Information Society
2013
Internet users
90% of world
population has
access to a cellphone

42. R.Polillo, May 201443

43. Paradigm #3: Mobile Web44
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44. Apple iPhone (2007)
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45. Android
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 Linux based mobile OS
 Initially developed by Android Inc., acquired by Google
in 2005
 Open-source
 First android phone: end 2008
 Today the largest market share for mobile OS

46. Mobile OS market share
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Source: StatCounter

47. Apple iPAD (2010)
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48. Samsung Galaxy S series
(Android)
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2010 2013

49. Mobile installed base (World)
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50. "Leap-frogging"
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51. "Mobile" may be misleading…
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 Emphasis is not on the "moveability"
 Emphasis is on the fact that we always bring
them with us
Small, portable, personal, context-aware, multi-
function devices…
… which can also be used to make a phone call

52. A complete paradigm change
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Access
from fixed
location
Ubiquitous,
contextualizedl
access
Device is geo-localized, has
eyes, hears, voice, knows its
user and is connected to a
global computing platform

53. Devices change our behaviours
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Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones in
USA: voice vs SMS (Nielsen)

54. Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones: voice vs
SMS by age in USA
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Q2 2008, Nielsen

55. Camera phone
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 Started circa 2002, with MMS services
 Now editing (photo and video) and immediate
uploading / sharing on the net
 >250 ml photos uploaded daily to Facebook
 Photo & videa cameras change their nature

56. http://bit.ly/VIIoX1 R.Polillo, May 201457

57. Samsung Cameraphone (Android)
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58. Camera eyes: QRCODE
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59. Augmented reality
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60. Augmented reality
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61. Augmented reality
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62. But we cannot do everything with a
small, portable device…
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Mobile
and
cloud
com
puting
are
strongly
related
CLOUD
Tks Lara Ciccarelli per i disegni

63. And now…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErpNpR3XYUw apr 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNATuCkRWFE feb 2013
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64. Smart watches
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65. Smartphone voice assistant
 Apple Siri: in iPhone 4S ott 2011, in iPad in set 2012
Demo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtwVQhEXCcc
 Google Voice Search/Google now: ottobre 2012,
orientato al search
 Microsoft Cortana: 2014
 http://bgr.com/2014/04/14/cortana-vs-siri-vs-google-now
 Il futuro anche nei sistemi di guida di autoveicoli
R.Polillo - Marzo 2014
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66. Conclusion
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"You cannot step into the same river twice"
"Change alone is unchanging"
Heraclitus

67. R.Polillo, May 201468
Thank you!
www.rpolillo.it
Roberto.polillo@unimib.it