May 12, 2014
University of Milano Bicocca
URBEUR-QUASI PhD Programme
The evolution of the
Web
Part I: The story
Roberto Po...
Our goal: to discuss the evolution of the Web
R.Polillo, May 2014
3
 Part I (today): The story
A summary of the milestone...
R.Polillo, May 2014
4
"You cannot step into the same river twice"
"Change alone is unchanging"
Heraclitus
The evolution of the Web
R.Polillo, May 2014
5
 From the first Web site (1991), the Web is
continuously growing and chang...
Four Internet paradigms
R.Polillo, May 2014
6
1995+
 Corporate sites
 Web portals
 Search engines
 E-commerce
 Web as...
2015+
MOBILE WEB
 Mobile devices
 Cloud computing
 Geolocalzation
 Camera phone
 Augmented reality
 Electronic walle...
Growth8
R.Polillo, May 2014
Web sites growth (world)
R.Polillo, May 2014
9
Source:
http://gandalf.it/dati
millions
Active sites
"Dead"sites
Web sites languages
R.Polillo, May 2014
10
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage
(April 2013)
Internet host growth (World)
R.Polillo, May 2014
11
Source: Internet Systems Consortium, from Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedi...
Internet users growth (World)
R.Polillo, May 2014
12
Source: ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2013
(onlinte)
Growth of .it domains
R.Polillo, May 2014
13 thousands
Source:
http://gandalf.it/dati
Internet traffic growth (World)
R.Polillo, May 2014
14
http://gizmodo.com/5614841/
web
video
p2p
Nature of Internet traffic
R.Polillo, May 2014
15
Da Wired
Paradigm #1: Web 1.016
R.Polillo, May 2014
Web 1.0
MS Explorer
Amazon
eBay
IPO Netscape
1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001
2002
First web site
at
CERN
W3C
Netscape Nav...
Web 1.0: main characteristics
R.Polillo, May 2014
18
 Site content produced by site publisher
 Hierarchical organization...
Narrowband connection
R.Polillo, May 2014
19
Web 1.0 Web sites
R.Polillo, May 2014
20
 Corporate Web sites
 Portals and search engines
 eCommerce
 [Enterprise port...
Corporate Web sites
R.Polillo, May 2014
21
 Target: customers, investors, press, general
public
 Who & where we are, wha...
Portals
R.Polillo, May 2014
22
 Access to set of online resources
 Thematic "channels"
 General portals vs "vortals"
 ...
Short history of Yahoo!
R.Polillo, May 2014
23
 1996: http://web.archive.org/web/19961022175643/http://www10.yahoo.com/
...
Italy: the beginning
R.Polillo, May 2014
24
VideoOnLine (Grauso, 1994 → Tin.it, 1996)
(1996)
Enterprise portals
R.Polillo, May 2014
25
Internal to organization:
 Document management
 Internal communication
 Inter...
E-commerce: main success stories
R.Polillo, May 2014
26
 http://www.amazon.com from 1995
Current size:
http://www.wolfram...
The "dot.com bubble"27
R.Polillo, May 2014
IPO (Initial Public Offering) frenzy
R.Polillo, May 2014
28
 dot.com frenzy started by Netscape IPO (Aug 9, 1995)
 Found...
The "dot.com bubble”
MS Explorer
Amazon
eBay
IPO Netscape
1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001
2002
First web
site at
CERN
W3C...
R.Polillo, May 2014
30
But the life continues….
Paradigm #2: Web 2.031
R.Polillo, May 2014
Web 2.0: birth of a name
R.Polillo, May 2014
32
 First O’Reilly Media Web 2.0 Conference (Oct 2004)
 The Internet commun...
Web 2.0 key aspects
R.Polillo, May 2014
33
Social media:
 The user is the leading actor
 User interaction throu the Web:...
Web 2.0
2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12
Twitter,
Slideshare,
Scribd
Google
DocsYouTube
,
Joomla,
NingFlickr,
Facebook
Skyp...
Xmas 2006
Media acknowledge the paradigm change
R.Polillo, May 2014
35
Top 5 sites (Q4/09 – Q1/13)
R.Polillo, May 2014
36
Source: Alexa
Another bubble?
R.Polillo, May 2014
37
Netscape IPO
Google IPO
Aug 19 2004
LinkedIn IPO
(NYSE)
Facebook IPO
Twitter IPO
(N...
In the meanwhile, telephony changes…38
R.Polillo, May 2014
Fasi della storia del Web
39
FirstW
eb
site
atCERN
M
osaic
(N
CSA)
W
3C;N
etscape
N
avigator
Netscape
IPO
,,M
S
Explorer,A...
R.Polillo, May 201440
SMS
2 G
Nokia
5110
GSM (candybar)
SMS, watch, sveglia,
rubrica, calcolatrice,
rubrica, giochi, suone...
IP telephony
R.Polillo, May 2014
41
 Skype
 Internet based video-telephony, free
 Starting 2003, acquired by eBay in 20...
The "mobile miracle"
R.Polillo, May 201442
ITU, Measuring the Information Society
2012
Mobile cellular subscriptions
6 yea...
R.Polillo, May 201443
Paradigm #3: Mobile Web44
R.Polillo, May 2014
Apple iPhone (2007)
R.Polillo, May 2014
45
Android
R.Polillo, May 2014
46
 Linux based mobile OS
 Initially developed by Android Inc., acquired by Google
in 2005
...
Mobile OS market share
R.Polillo, May 2014
47
Source: StatCounter
Apple iPAD (2010)
R.Polillo, May 2014
48
Samsung Galaxy S series
(Android)
R.Polillo, May 2014
49
2010 2013
Mobile installed base (World)
R.Polillo, May 2014
50
"Leap-frogging"
R.Polillo, May 2014
51
"Mobile" may be misleading…
R.Polillo, May 2014
52
 Emphasis is not on the "moveability"
 Emphasis is on the fact that w...
A complete paradigm change
R.Polillo, May 2014
53
Access
from fixed
location
Ubiquitous,
contextualizedl
access
Device is ...
Devices change our behaviours
R.Polillo, May 2014
54
Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones in
USA: voice vs SMS (Nielsen)
Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones: voice vs
SMS by age in USA
R.Polillo, May 2014
55
Q2 2008, Nielsen
Camera phone
R.Polillo, May 2014
56
 Started circa 2002, with MMS services
 Now editing (photo and video) and immediate
...
http://bit.ly/VIIoX1 R.Polillo, May 201457
Samsung Cameraphone (Android)
R.Polillo, May 2014
58
Camera eyes: QRCODE
R.Polillo, May 2014
59
Augmented reality
R.Polillo, May 2014
60
Augmented reality
R.Polillo, May 2014
61
Augmented reality
R.Polillo, May 2014
62
But we cannot do everything with a
small, portable device…
R.Polillo, May 2014
63
Mobile
and
cloud
com
puting
are
strongly...
And now…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErpNpR3XYUw apr 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNATuCkRWFE feb 2013
R.Polill...
Smart watches
R.Polillo, May 2014
65
Smartphone voice assistant
 Apple Siri: in iPhone 4S ott 2011, in iPad in set 2012
Demo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=...
Conclusion
R.Polillo, May 2014
67
"You cannot step into the same river twice"
"Change alone is unchanging"
Heraclitus
R.Polillo, May 201468
Thank you!
www.rpolillo.it
Roberto.polillo@unimib.it
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Web evolution (Part I)

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Web evolution (Part I)

  1. 1. May 12, 2014 University of Milano Bicocca URBEUR-QUASI PhD Programme The evolution of the Web Part I: The story Roberto Polillo Department of Informatics, Systems and Communications University of Milano Bicocca 1
  2. 2. Our goal: to discuss the evolution of the Web R.Polillo, May 2014 3  Part I (today): The story A summary of the milestones / paradigms of the evolution of the Web: 1990-today  Part II (next Monday): The driving forces A summary of market mechanisms that drive the growth of the Web online services
  3. 3. R.Polillo, May 2014 4 "You cannot step into the same river twice" "Change alone is unchanging" Heraclitus
  4. 4. The evolution of the Web R.Polillo, May 2014 5  From the first Web site (1991), the Web is continuously growing and changing its nature  In parallel, telephony is drastically changed (fixed → mobile)  Drivers of this evolution: tecnology, market, people behaviour
  5. 5. Four Internet paradigms R.Polillo, May 2014 6 1995+  Corporate sites  Web portals  Search engines  E-commerce  Web as an interface  …. HYPERTEXT, eCOMMERCE 2005+  Blogs  Social networks  UGC  Cooperative creation  Sharing  Reusable contents  … SOCIAL MEDIA 1985 +  E-mail  File transfer  Newsgroups  …. COMMUNICATION NETWORK
  6. 6. 2015+ MOBILE WEB  Mobile devices  Cloud computing  Geolocalzation  Camera phone  Augmented reality  Electronic wallet Four Internet paradigms R.Polillo, May 2014 7 Mobile devices Desktop + laptop Worldwide installed base
  7. 7. Growth8 R.Polillo, May 2014
  8. 8. Web sites growth (world) R.Polillo, May 2014 9 Source: http://gandalf.it/dati millions Active sites "Dead"sites
  9. 9. Web sites languages R.Polillo, May 2014 10 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage (April 2013)
  10. 10. Internet host growth (World) R.Polillo, May 2014 11 Source: Internet Systems Consortium, from Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage
  11. 11. Internet users growth (World) R.Polillo, May 2014 12 Source: ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2013 (onlinte)
  12. 12. Growth of .it domains R.Polillo, May 2014 13 thousands Source: http://gandalf.it/dati
  13. 13. Internet traffic growth (World) R.Polillo, May 2014 14 http://gizmodo.com/5614841/ web video p2p
  14. 14. Nature of Internet traffic R.Polillo, May 2014 15 Da Wired
  15. 15. Paradigm #1: Web 1.016 R.Polillo, May 2014
  16. 16. Web 1.0 MS Explorer Amazon eBay IPO Netscape 1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001 2002 First web site at CERN W3C Netscape Navigator Yahoo Mosaic Google Mozilla Napster Paypal Max NASDAQ 9/11 Min NASDAQ Nasdaq Composite Index R.Polillo, May 2014 17
  17. 17. Web 1.0: main characteristics R.Polillo, May 2014 18  Site content produced by site publisher  Hierarchical organization and navigation thru menu  Single user ↔ web site interaction  Interaction with data bases  "Closed" services (“get the user and keep her within site”)
  18. 18. Narrowband connection R.Polillo, May 2014 19
  19. 19. Web 1.0 Web sites R.Polillo, May 2014 20  Corporate Web sites  Portals and search engines  eCommerce  [Enterprise portals]
  20. 20. Corporate Web sites R.Polillo, May 2014 21  Target: customers, investors, press, general public  Who & where we are, what we do, our products / services, [online sales]
  21. 21. Portals R.Polillo, May 2014 22  Access to set of online resources  Thematic "channels"  General portals vs "vortals"  Personalization (“myPortal”)  Very large developments in late '90s  www.yahoo.com from 1994, always among the first 5 more visited sites
  22. 22. Short history of Yahoo! R.Polillo, May 2014 23  1996: http://web.archive.org/web/19961022175643/http://www10.yahoo.com/  1999: http://web.archive.org/web/19990208021636/http://www12.yahoo.com/  2001: http://web.archive.org/web/20011108000033/http://www.yahoo.com/  2003 http://web.archive.org/web/20031211113526/http://www.yahoo.com/  2005 http://web.archive.org/web/20051220154406/http://www.yahoo.com/?  2007: http://web.archive.org/web/20071229022936/http://www.yahoo.com/  2010: http://web.archive.org/web/20101016230535/http://www.yahoo.com/  Today: www.yahoo.com http://www.archive.org/ (from 1996)
  23. 23. Italy: the beginning R.Polillo, May 2014 24 VideoOnLine (Grauso, 1994 → Tin.it, 1996) (1996)
  24. 24. Enterprise portals R.Polillo, May 2014 25 Internal to organization:  Document management  Internal communication  Internal procedures and forms  Front-end to corporate information systems Private corporate networks slowly adopt Internet protocols ("intranet")
  25. 25. E-commerce: main success stories R.Polillo, May 2014 26  http://www.amazon.com from 1995 Current size: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=amazon.com  http://www.ebay.com from 1995 Current size: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ebay.com
  26. 26. The "dot.com bubble"27 R.Polillo, May 2014
  27. 27. IPO (Initial Public Offering) frenzy R.Polillo, May 2014 28  dot.com frenzy started by Netscape IPO (Aug 9, 1995)  Founded 18 months earlier  16 M$ revenues, no profit  Market cap at IPO: 1 B$ (!)  Large venture capital, to bring startups to IPO  Many irrealistic business models  NASDAQ bubble, then fall (2000-2001)  Silicon Valley stops completely
  28. 28. The "dot.com bubble” MS Explorer Amazon eBay IPO Netscape 1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001 2002 First web site at CERN W3C Netscape Navigator Yahoo Mosaic Google Mozilla Napster Paypal Max NASDAQ 9/11 Min NASDAQ Nasdaq Composite Index March 10 2000: index at 5132 March 10 2000: index at 5132 Oct 9 2002: index at 1114 Oct 9 2002: index at 1114 R.Polillo, May 2014 29
  29. 29. R.Polillo, May 2014 30 But the life continues….
  30. 30. Paradigm #2: Web 2.031 R.Polillo, May 2014
  31. 31. Web 2.0: birth of a name R.Polillo, May 2014 32  First O’Reilly Media Web 2.0 Conference (Oct 2004)  The Internet community realizes that the Web is changed…
  32. 32. Web 2.0 key aspects R.Polillo, May 2014 33 Social media:  The user is the leading actor  User interaction throu the Web: one-to-many (blog), many-to-many (social media)  Services to host User Generated Content (UGC), to be shared with other users  Collective creation  User rating in e-commerce  "Market are conversations" (Cluetrain manifesto, 1999-2000) The Web as a computing platform:  Online services, virtualization  Perpetuale beta  Component and service mashups  Rich Internet Applications (RIA) technologies
  33. 33. Web 2.0 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Twitter, Slideshare, Scribd Google DocsYouTube , Joomla, NingFlickr, Facebook Skype WordPress Blogger LinkedIn iPhone Groupon Android, Dropbox Foursquar e WhatsApp iPad, Pinterest Instagram Google+ Wikipedi a (In red start of mobile Web) Internet traffic video R.Polillo, May 2014 34
  34. 34. Xmas 2006 Media acknowledge the paradigm change R.Polillo, May 2014 35
  35. 35. Top 5 sites (Q4/09 – Q1/13) R.Polillo, May 2014 36 Source: Alexa
  36. 36. Another bubble? R.Polillo, May 2014 37 Netscape IPO Google IPO Aug 19 2004 LinkedIn IPO (NYSE) Facebook IPO Twitter IPO (NYSE) 199 4 199 5 199 7 199 6 March 10 2000: 5049 (Indice Nasdaq 1994-2013)
  37. 37. In the meanwhile, telephony changes…38 R.Polillo, May 2014
  38. 38. Fasi della storia del Web 39 FirstW eb site atCERN M osaic (N CSA) W 3C;N etscape N avigator Netscape IPO ,,M S Explorer,Am azon,eBay Boom and fallofNASD AQ G oogle IPO ;Facebook 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0990 10 11 12 WEB 1.0 WEB 2.0crisisPre-history G oogle founded 9/11;W ikipedia Financialcrisi iPhone,Android Tw itter iPad FB IPO Nasdaq Composite Index YouTube Internet traffic video
  39. 39. R.Polillo, May 201440 SMS 2 G Nokia 5110 GSM (candybar) SMS, watch, sveglia, rubrica, calcolatrice, rubrica, giochi, suonerie MMS WAP 2.5 G Motorola V3 RAZR "Feature phone" GPRS (candybar, clamshell) + MMS,,photocamera, email, (Internet) Touch phone iPhone + multitouch, sensors, GPS, app, … 3 G Blackberry "Smartphone" + alphanumeric kb, PDA, video, GPS, radio, MP3, OS, …TELEFONIA MOBILE TIM, Omnitel FirstW eb site atCERN M osaic (N CSA) W 3C;N etscape N avigator Netscape IPO ,,M S Explorer,Am azon, Boom and fallofNASD AQ G oogle IPO ;Facebook 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0990 10 11 12G oogle founded 9/11;W ikipedia Financialcrisi iPhone,Android Tw itter iPad FB IPO YouTube
  40. 40. IP telephony R.Polillo, May 2014 41  Skype  Internet based video-telephony, free  Starting 2003, acquired by eBay in 2005, then by Microsoft in 2011 (8,5 B$)  2012: 700 ml accounts; one third of all international calls pass through Skype  Jan 2013: 50 ml concurrent users  WhatsApp  Free SMS via IP  Started in 2009, acquired by Facebook in 2014 (19 B$)
  41. 41. The "mobile miracle" R.Polillo, May 201442 ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2012 Mobile cellular subscriptions 6 years gap ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2013 Internet users 90% of world population has access to a cellphone
  42. 42. R.Polillo, May 201443
  43. 43. Paradigm #3: Mobile Web44 R.Polillo, May 2014
  44. 44. Apple iPhone (2007) R.Polillo, May 2014 45
  45. 45. Android R.Polillo, May 2014 46  Linux based mobile OS  Initially developed by Android Inc., acquired by Google in 2005  Open-source  First android phone: end 2008  Today the largest market share for mobile OS
  46. 46. Mobile OS market share R.Polillo, May 2014 47 Source: StatCounter
  47. 47. Apple iPAD (2010) R.Polillo, May 2014 48
  48. 48. Samsung Galaxy S series (Android) R.Polillo, May 2014 49 2010 2013
  49. 49. Mobile installed base (World) R.Polillo, May 2014 50
  50. 50. "Leap-frogging" R.Polillo, May 2014 51
  51. 51. "Mobile" may be misleading… R.Polillo, May 2014 52  Emphasis is not on the "moveability"  Emphasis is on the fact that we always bring them with us Small, portable, personal, context-aware, multi- function devices… … which can also be used to make a phone call
  52. 52. A complete paradigm change R.Polillo, May 2014 53 Access from fixed location Ubiquitous, contextualizedl access Device is geo-localized, has eyes, hears, voice, knows its user and is connected to a global computing platform
  53. 53. Devices change our behaviours R.Polillo, May 2014 54 Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones in USA: voice vs SMS (Nielsen)
  54. 54. Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones: voice vs SMS by age in USA R.Polillo, May 2014 55 Q2 2008, Nielsen
  55. 55. Camera phone R.Polillo, May 2014 56  Started circa 2002, with MMS services  Now editing (photo and video) and immediate uploading / sharing on the net  >250 ml photos uploaded daily to Facebook  Photo & videa cameras change their nature
  56. 56. http://bit.ly/VIIoX1 R.Polillo, May 201457
  57. 57. Samsung Cameraphone (Android) R.Polillo, May 2014 58
  58. 58. Camera eyes: QRCODE R.Polillo, May 2014 59
  59. 59. Augmented reality R.Polillo, May 2014 60
  60. 60. Augmented reality R.Polillo, May 2014 61
  61. 61. Augmented reality R.Polillo, May 2014 62
  62. 62. But we cannot do everything with a small, portable device… R.Polillo, May 2014 63 Mobile and cloud com puting are strongly related CLOUD Tks Lara Ciccarelli per i disegni
  63. 63. And now… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErpNpR3XYUw apr 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNATuCkRWFE feb 2013 R.Polillo, May 2014 64
  64. 64. Smart watches R.Polillo, May 2014 65
  65. 65. Smartphone voice assistant  Apple Siri: in iPhone 4S ott 2011, in iPad in set 2012 Demo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtwVQhEXCcc  Google Voice Search/Google now: ottobre 2012, orientato al search  Microsoft Cortana: 2014  http://bgr.com/2014/04/14/cortana-vs-siri-vs-google-now  Il futuro anche nei sistemi di guida di autoveicoli R.Polillo - Marzo 2014 66
  66. 66. Conclusion R.Polillo, May 2014 67 "You cannot step into the same river twice" "Change alone is unchanging" Heraclitus
  67. 67. R.Polillo, May 201468 Thank you! www.rpolillo.it Roberto.polillo@unimib.it
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