Web evolution (Part I)

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Slides from the lessons to URBEUR-QUA_SI PhD students - University of Milano Bicocca (prof.R.Polillo) …

Slides from the lessons to URBEUR-QUA_SI PhD students - University of Milano Bicocca (prof.R.Polillo)

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  • 1. May 12, 2014 University of Milano Bicocca URBEUR-QUASI PhD Programme The evolution of the Web Part I: The story Roberto Polillo Department of Informatics, Systems and Communications University of Milano Bicocca 1
  • 2. Our goal: to discuss the evolution of the Web R.Polillo, May 2014 3  Part I (today): The story A summary of the milestones / paradigms of the evolution of the Web: 1990-today  Part II (next Monday): The driving forces A summary of market mechanisms that drive the growth of the Web online services
  • 3. R.Polillo, May 2014 4 "You cannot step into the same river twice" "Change alone is unchanging" Heraclitus
  • 4. The evolution of the Web R.Polillo, May 2014 5  From the first Web site (1991), the Web is continuously growing and changing its nature  In parallel, telephony is drastically changed (fixed → mobile)  Drivers of this evolution: tecnology, market, people behaviour
  • 5. Four Internet paradigms R.Polillo, May 2014 6 1995+  Corporate sites  Web portals  Search engines  E-commerce  Web as an interface  …. HYPERTEXT, eCOMMERCE 2005+  Blogs  Social networks  UGC  Cooperative creation  Sharing  Reusable contents  … SOCIAL MEDIA 1985 +  E-mail  File transfer  Newsgroups  …. COMMUNICATION NETWORK
  • 6. 2015+ MOBILE WEB  Mobile devices  Cloud computing  Geolocalzation  Camera phone  Augmented reality  Electronic wallet Four Internet paradigms R.Polillo, May 2014 7 Mobile devices Desktop + laptop Worldwide installed base
  • 7. Growth8 R.Polillo, May 2014
  • 8. Web sites growth (world) R.Polillo, May 2014 9 Source: http://gandalf.it/dati millions Active sites "Dead"sites
  • 9. Web sites languages R.Polillo, May 2014 10 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage (April 2013)
  • 10. Internet host growth (World) R.Polillo, May 2014 11 Source: Internet Systems Consortium, from Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage
  • 11. Internet users growth (World) R.Polillo, May 2014 12 Source: ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2013 (onlinte)
  • 12. Growth of .it domains R.Polillo, May 2014 13 thousands Source: http://gandalf.it/dati
  • 13. Internet traffic growth (World) R.Polillo, May 2014 14 http://gizmodo.com/5614841/ web video p2p
  • 14. Nature of Internet traffic R.Polillo, May 2014 15 Da Wired
  • 15. Paradigm #1: Web 1.016 R.Polillo, May 2014
  • 16. Web 1.0 MS Explorer Amazon eBay IPO Netscape 1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001 2002 First web site at CERN W3C Netscape Navigator Yahoo Mosaic Google Mozilla Napster Paypal Max NASDAQ 9/11 Min NASDAQ Nasdaq Composite Index R.Polillo, May 2014 17
  • 17. Web 1.0: main characteristics R.Polillo, May 2014 18  Site content produced by site publisher  Hierarchical organization and navigation thru menu  Single user ↔ web site interaction  Interaction with data bases  "Closed" services (“get the user and keep her within site”)
  • 18. Narrowband connection R.Polillo, May 2014 19
  • 19. Web 1.0 Web sites R.Polillo, May 2014 20  Corporate Web sites  Portals and search engines  eCommerce  [Enterprise portals]
  • 20. Corporate Web sites R.Polillo, May 2014 21  Target: customers, investors, press, general public  Who & where we are, what we do, our products / services, [online sales]
  • 21. Portals R.Polillo, May 2014 22  Access to set of online resources  Thematic "channels"  General portals vs "vortals"  Personalization (“myPortal”)  Very large developments in late '90s  www.yahoo.com from 1994, always among the first 5 more visited sites
  • 22. Short history of Yahoo! R.Polillo, May 2014 23  1996: http://web.archive.org/web/19961022175643/http://www10.yahoo.com/  1999: http://web.archive.org/web/19990208021636/http://www12.yahoo.com/  2001: http://web.archive.org/web/20011108000033/http://www.yahoo.com/  2003 http://web.archive.org/web/20031211113526/http://www.yahoo.com/  2005 http://web.archive.org/web/20051220154406/http://www.yahoo.com/?  2007: http://web.archive.org/web/20071229022936/http://www.yahoo.com/  2010: http://web.archive.org/web/20101016230535/http://www.yahoo.com/  Today: www.yahoo.com http://www.archive.org/ (from 1996)
  • 23. Italy: the beginning R.Polillo, May 2014 24 VideoOnLine (Grauso, 1994 → Tin.it, 1996) (1996)
  • 24. Enterprise portals R.Polillo, May 2014 25 Internal to organization:  Document management  Internal communication  Internal procedures and forms  Front-end to corporate information systems Private corporate networks slowly adopt Internet protocols ("intranet")
  • 25. E-commerce: main success stories R.Polillo, May 2014 26  http://www.amazon.com from 1995 Current size: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=amazon.com  http://www.ebay.com from 1995 Current size: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ebay.com
  • 26. The "dot.com bubble"27 R.Polillo, May 2014
  • 27. IPO (Initial Public Offering) frenzy R.Polillo, May 2014 28  dot.com frenzy started by Netscape IPO (Aug 9, 1995)  Founded 18 months earlier  16 M$ revenues, no profit  Market cap at IPO: 1 B$ (!)  Large venture capital, to bring startups to IPO  Many irrealistic business models  NASDAQ bubble, then fall (2000-2001)  Silicon Valley stops completely
  • 28. The "dot.com bubble” MS Explorer Amazon eBay IPO Netscape 1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001 2002 First web site at CERN W3C Netscape Navigator Yahoo Mosaic Google Mozilla Napster Paypal Max NASDAQ 9/11 Min NASDAQ Nasdaq Composite Index March 10 2000: index at 5132 March 10 2000: index at 5132 Oct 9 2002: index at 1114 Oct 9 2002: index at 1114 R.Polillo, May 2014 29
  • 29. R.Polillo, May 2014 30 But the life continues….
  • 30. Paradigm #2: Web 2.031 R.Polillo, May 2014
  • 31. Web 2.0: birth of a name R.Polillo, May 2014 32  First O’Reilly Media Web 2.0 Conference (Oct 2004)  The Internet community realizes that the Web is changed…
  • 32. Web 2.0 key aspects R.Polillo, May 2014 33 Social media:  The user is the leading actor  User interaction throu the Web: one-to-many (blog), many-to-many (social media)  Services to host User Generated Content (UGC), to be shared with other users  Collective creation  User rating in e-commerce  "Market are conversations" (Cluetrain manifesto, 1999-2000) The Web as a computing platform:  Online services, virtualization  Perpetuale beta  Component and service mashups  Rich Internet Applications (RIA) technologies
  • 33. Web 2.0 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Twitter, Slideshare, Scribd Google DocsYouTube , Joomla, NingFlickr, Facebook Skype WordPress Blogger LinkedIn iPhone Groupon Android, Dropbox Foursquar e WhatsApp iPad, Pinterest Instagram Google+ Wikipedi a (In red start of mobile Web) Internet traffic video R.Polillo, May 2014 34
  • 34. Xmas 2006 Media acknowledge the paradigm change R.Polillo, May 2014 35
  • 35. Top 5 sites (Q4/09 – Q1/13) R.Polillo, May 2014 36 Source: Alexa
  • 36. Another bubble? R.Polillo, May 2014 37 Netscape IPO Google IPO Aug 19 2004 LinkedIn IPO (NYSE) Facebook IPO Twitter IPO (NYSE) 199 4 199 5 199 7 199 6 March 10 2000: 5049 (Indice Nasdaq 1994-2013)
  • 37. In the meanwhile, telephony changes…38 R.Polillo, May 2014
  • 38. Fasi della storia del Web 39 FirstW eb site atCERN M osaic (N CSA) W 3C;N etscape N avigator Netscape IPO ,,M S Explorer,Am azon,eBay Boom and fallofNASD AQ G oogle IPO ;Facebook 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0990 10 11 12 WEB 1.0 WEB 2.0crisisPre-history G oogle founded 9/11;W ikipedia Financialcrisi iPhone,Android Tw itter iPad FB IPO Nasdaq Composite Index YouTube Internet traffic video
  • 39. R.Polillo, May 201440 SMS 2 G Nokia 5110 GSM (candybar) SMS, watch, sveglia, rubrica, calcolatrice, rubrica, giochi, suonerie MMS WAP 2.5 G Motorola V3 RAZR "Feature phone" GPRS (candybar, clamshell) + MMS,,photocamera, email, (Internet) Touch phone iPhone + multitouch, sensors, GPS, app, … 3 G Blackberry "Smartphone" + alphanumeric kb, PDA, video, GPS, radio, MP3, OS, …TELEFONIA MOBILE TIM, Omnitel FirstW eb site atCERN M osaic (N CSA) W 3C;N etscape N avigator Netscape IPO ,,M S Explorer,Am azon, Boom and fallofNASD AQ G oogle IPO ;Facebook 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0990 10 11 12G oogle founded 9/11;W ikipedia Financialcrisi iPhone,Android Tw itter iPad FB IPO YouTube
  • 40. IP telephony R.Polillo, May 2014 41  Skype  Internet based video-telephony, free  Starting 2003, acquired by eBay in 2005, then by Microsoft in 2011 (8,5 B$)  2012: 700 ml accounts; one third of all international calls pass through Skype  Jan 2013: 50 ml concurrent users  WhatsApp  Free SMS via IP  Started in 2009, acquired by Facebook in 2014 (19 B$)
  • 41. The "mobile miracle" R.Polillo, May 201442 ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2012 Mobile cellular subscriptions 6 years gap ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2013 Internet users 90% of world population has access to a cellphone
  • 42. R.Polillo, May 201443
  • 43. Paradigm #3: Mobile Web44 R.Polillo, May 2014
  • 44. Apple iPhone (2007) R.Polillo, May 2014 45
  • 45. Android R.Polillo, May 2014 46  Linux based mobile OS  Initially developed by Android Inc., acquired by Google in 2005  Open-source  First android phone: end 2008  Today the largest market share for mobile OS
  • 46. Mobile OS market share R.Polillo, May 2014 47 Source: StatCounter
  • 47. Apple iPAD (2010) R.Polillo, May 2014 48
  • 48. Samsung Galaxy S series (Android) R.Polillo, May 2014 49 2010 2013
  • 49. Mobile installed base (World) R.Polillo, May 2014 50
  • 50. "Leap-frogging" R.Polillo, May 2014 51
  • 51. "Mobile" may be misleading… R.Polillo, May 2014 52  Emphasis is not on the "moveability"  Emphasis is on the fact that we always bring them with us Small, portable, personal, context-aware, multi- function devices… … which can also be used to make a phone call
  • 52. A complete paradigm change R.Polillo, May 2014 53 Access from fixed location Ubiquitous, contextualizedl access Device is geo-localized, has eyes, hears, voice, knows its user and is connected to a global computing platform
  • 53. Devices change our behaviours R.Polillo, May 2014 54 Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones in USA: voice vs SMS (Nielsen)
  • 54. Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones: voice vs SMS by age in USA R.Polillo, May 2014 55 Q2 2008, Nielsen
  • 55. Camera phone R.Polillo, May 2014 56  Started circa 2002, with MMS services  Now editing (photo and video) and immediate uploading / sharing on the net  >250 ml photos uploaded daily to Facebook  Photo & videa cameras change their nature
  • 56. http://bit.ly/VIIoX1 R.Polillo, May 201457
  • 57. Samsung Cameraphone (Android) R.Polillo, May 2014 58
  • 58. Camera eyes: QRCODE R.Polillo, May 2014 59
  • 59. Augmented reality R.Polillo, May 2014 60
  • 60. Augmented reality R.Polillo, May 2014 61
  • 61. Augmented reality R.Polillo, May 2014 62
  • 62. But we cannot do everything with a small, portable device… R.Polillo, May 2014 63 Mobile and cloud com puting are strongly related CLOUD Tks Lara Ciccarelli per i disegni
  • 63. And now… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErpNpR3XYUw apr 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNATuCkRWFE feb 2013 R.Polillo, May 2014 64
  • 64. Smart watches R.Polillo, May 2014 65
  • 65. Smartphone voice assistant  Apple Siri: in iPhone 4S ott 2011, in iPad in set 2012 Demo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtwVQhEXCcc  Google Voice Search/Google now: ottobre 2012, orientato al search  Microsoft Cortana: 2014  http://bgr.com/2014/04/14/cortana-vs-siri-vs-google-now  Il futuro anche nei sistemi di guida di autoveicoli R.Polillo - Marzo 2014 66
  • 66. Conclusion R.Polillo, May 2014 67 "You cannot step into the same river twice" "Change alone is unchanging" Heraclitus
  • 67. R.Polillo, May 201468 Thank you! www.rpolillo.it Roberto.polillo@unimib.it