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Portland State University Presentation on Technology Forecasting Tools

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A "How-to-do a Technology Forecast using simple and advanced methods within the Systematic Innovation Toolbox. This presentation was done in the Winter term of 2009 to Masters and Phd students of …

A "How-to-do a Technology Forecast using simple and advanced methods within the Systematic Innovation Toolbox. This presentation was done in the Winter term of 2009 to Masters and Phd students of Portland State University's Engineering Management Program

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  • 1. Technology Forecasting Using TRIZ Methods and Tools Portland State University Engineering Management of Technology Winter ’09 Richard Platt Owner – Principal The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC
  • 2. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 2 Presenter Bio Current Position: (09/06 – Present) Owner of The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC Previous Positions (Intel): (‘95 intern, 04/97 – 09/06) Senior Instructor for Innovation Methods and Innovation/ TRIZ Program Manager – Recruited and trained 13 instructors + >850 Engineers, PM’s, Technology Developers and R&D personnel Quality and Reliability Engineer (EID) Technology Development Program Manager in: 1. ATTD 2. Components Research 3. Server Architecture Lab Manufacturing Engineer (ESG) Customer Program Manager (OPSD - intern) 1 Intel Manufacturing Excellence Award 5 Divisional Recognition Awards 2 Patents and multiple defensive publications Refer to LinkedIn page for further discussions Certifications: Innovation Master® , TRIZ Expert (+240 hours training, and testing), Lean and a Greenbelt in 6 Sigma
  • 3. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 3 Where: *This formula (in more simplified form) proposed first by Boris Goldovsky in 1974. I = the degree of ideality F = a function delivered of a positive effect P = negative effect, expenses i = a number of variable F j = a number of variable P Law of Ideality Equation ∞ ∞
  • 4. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 4 Higher Level Functionality = Higher Value Benefits Costs Improved performance Lower expendituresFewer harmful effects Simple Formula for Value Business Goal: Generate a profit while delivering unrivaled customer value Confidential
  • 5. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 5 The Law of Ideality in Action 1/1,000,000 the size; 1/10,000,000 the weight 1/1,000,000 the cost 10,000,000 X the performance and reliability FunctionalityFunctionality andand performanceperformance increasesincreases atat lower costslower costs Source: Intel
  • 6. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 6 Benefits Costs Increasing Value Benefits Costs Conventional way TRIZ way Innovation can be risky and expensive, it typically involves a random search for solutions (trial-and-error). These solutions are often costly mistakes providing a time advantage to competitors.
  • 7. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 7 Infancy Rapid growth Maturity Decline Benefit-to-cost Time Technology Innovation: S-curve Make it work Maximize efficiency Minimize cost Prove idea Next-generation
  • 8. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 8 Moore’s Law & the Law of Ideality S-Curves are located at every process change & successive generation (all the way to 300mm wafers, from 1.0u to 0.8u, and so on) MIPSMIPS Pentium® Pro Processor Pentium® II Processor Pentium® III Processor Pentium® 4 Processor Intel386TM DX Microprocessor Intel486TM DX CPU Microprocessor 1 10 100 1000 10000 1985 1989 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 MIPS $/MIPS$/MIPS 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 $/MIPS Silicon Technology 1.5µ 1.0µ 0.8µ 0.6µ 0.4µ 0.25µ 0.18µ 0.13µ Pentium® Processor Source: Intel
  • 9. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 9 The Main postulate of TRIZ • Evolution of successful technologies is governed by certain laws. • This means that the transition… …is predetermined. Technology A Technology B Technology C These are verified laws, tools and trends of engineering system evolution, not opinion, & have been validated as statistically significant
  • 10. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 10 An Example of a Law of Evolution Stage of evolution A Stage of evolution B Stage of evolution C
  • 11. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 11 Typical System vs. Consumer Trend Product Based Economy Service Based Economy Experience Based Economy Commodity Based Economy Transformation Based Economy Current System 1 2 3 4 5 Competitive Pressure moves this way Evolution of a Break-Through/Next Generation System move this way Confidential
  • 12. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 12 General Principles of an Evolutionary Trend INCREASING BENEFITS INCREASING TECHNICAL CHALLENGE, RISK, etc (TIME) Immobile Single Joint Multiple Joint Liquid Gas FieldCompletely flexible
  • 13. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 13 • There are Universal Principles & Trends of Evolution leading toward the “peak value” – Can be used to predict “next big thing” • Best innovations resolve conflicts (compromise-free) • There are Universal Principles for resolving conflicts Key Concepts
  • 14. Integrated System Level Solution: Embedded Silicon within Rigid Core with Heat-pipe Technology By Richard Platt (Former) Technology Development Program Manager Server Board & System Technology
  • 15. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 15 Why the Need for this Concept (1999)? Inventor’s Comment: Intel has many researchers, engineers & Intel Fellows working on evolving the technologies for the silicon device and component level. However I did not see the same amount and level of investment of R&D resources being allocated at the board or system level. – This is especially of concern to the inventor since coming to understand TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving) that evolving the technology in the super-system direction is just as an important technology vector to pursue as the sub-system level (where the primary focus is occurring within Intel today[1999]). This concept is one of many potential concepts that attempts to address evolvement of the technology to the super-system. (Hopefully to block our competitors from potentially outmaneuvering Intel in the marketplace.)
  • 16. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 16 Technology Trends Driving the Market (1999) #1 TREND: The Increasing # of I/O in IA; according to Moore’s Law* states that # of transistors doubles on silicon devices every 18-24 months. – This trend is driving the need for a enabling technologies to be developed for the individual device, (i.e. wafer level), as well as at the component level, board level and system levels to address the scaling challenges. – INVENTIVE SOLUTION NEEDED TO ADDRESS: • Increasing complexity & decrease in size vs. Thermal management and Manufacturability – [(I): Device Complexity vs. (W): Use of energy by stationary Object]. – And/Or combinations – [(I): Area of Stationary Object vs. (W): Object Generated Harmful Factors]. ‘Moore’s Law’ correlates to the ‘Law of Ideality’ in TRIZ; Law of Ideality = All engineering systems, evolve over time, providing greater performance, functionality and benefit at lower cost and have less detrimental aspects as a part of their design and manufacture.
  • 17. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 17 Technology Trends Driving the Market (1999) #2 TREND: With the increase in the # of I/O in IA; there are greater demands for more power for supporting the devices, especially in the Server and Desktop product spaces (inventor’s background), as well as in the mobile and networking product spaces. – INVENTIVE SOLUTION NEEDED TO ADDRESS: • Increase in speed vs. Increased need to dissipate thermal energy – [(I): Speed vs. (W): Temperature] • Increase in thermal energy dissipation vs. small volumetric area. – [(I): Use of energy by a Stationary Object vs. (W): Area of Stationary Object] #3 TREND: With the increase in the # of I/O in IA; the pitch of I/O balls both from die-to-package and package-to-board is shrinking – INVENTIVE SOLUTION NEEDED TO ADDRESS: • Decrease in size vs. Manufacturability – [(I): Area of Stationary Object vs. (W): Manufacturing Precision or Ease of Manufacture]. – [(I): Quantity of a substance vs. (W): Ease of Manufacture or Manufacturing Precision]
  • 18. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 18 Silicon Device (Processor) Thermal conductive Adhesive/Grease Rigid Core – Al ? Cu thermal transfer plate Conductive Adhesive MLB: Multi-Layer Board Silicon Device (Processor) Silver filled Resin or Epoxy Embedded Thermal Heat-pipe Silicon device Double-Sided Silicon Devices-In-Board (DSSDIB) – Embedded processors (current component designs using gold bumps or gold wire) in Imprinted Circuit Boards w/ rigid cores. µ-Via (4-6mil buried & blind) Bump contact pads Intel Patent Holder: Richard Platt Technology Development Intel Program Manager Std Via (10mil drill/ 13mil fin) Standard trace for routing on outer layer
  • 19. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 19 Double-Sided Silicon Devices-In-Board (DSSDIB) 1. The processor is embedded w/in the PCB through the machining/molding process of the rigid core and then imprinting the underside of the multi layer substrate to create a routing cavity. 2. Silver filled epoxy is used on the top side of the component between the rigid core material lining, (likely nickel plated copper for the lining due to thermal transfer capabilities and aluminum for the rigid core). 3. The bottom of the imprinted cavity with the trace connections and the metal contact pads come in contact with the gold bumps of the silicon device is coated with a electrically conductive adhesive. 3. The heat-pipe running through the rigid core, essentially acts as a radiator close to the processor thermally heat-sinking the thermal energy into the liquid w/in the heat-pipe. Then through osmotic process of the thermal heat-pipe itself it transfers the heated liquid/gas to an external cooling source, (i.e. fan) that vents the thermal energy out of the system. This technology is already in use on laptops today. 4. This approach integrates all those technologies together along w/ the rigid core which provides additional rigidity and strength to already heavy and dense PCBs. The rigid core acts as stabilizer. 5. Traces (I/O), can then route out on the same layer as where the ball pads connect, and then using μ-vias the design engineer can then route to the primary side, (top surface), of the PCB. 6. Instead of needing the package to manage the environment, now the PCB can be the protective package around the silicon. 7. Cost savings are significant w/ integrating the silicon directly into the substrate &/or the rigid core. 8. The rigid core is coated w/ a non-conductive film to prevent electrical shorts. 9. Opportunity to do side access fiber optics integrated into silicon and edge of substrate. (not shown).
  • 20. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 20 Rigid Core 2 Plates A & B > Aligned with Pins > R.C. Through Holes Drilled or molded > Heat Pipe Cavity > Retainer Rails > Silicon Device Cavity Through Holes Drilled into Rigid Core Alignment Pins Silicon Cavity Heat Pipe Cavity Note: NOT TO SCALE -- R.C. Thickness TBD Cutaway Drawing Set—Not a manufacturing Flow! Retainer Rails
  • 21. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 21 Embedded Components Cu Thermal Plate > Silver Epoxy > Silicon Device Silicon Device (Gold Bumped) Cu Thermal Silver Epoxy
  • 22. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 22 High Density Interconnect Printed Circuit Board (HDI PCB) PCB Constructed > PCB mounted to respective half of Rigid Core via alignment Pins and PCB registration holes Note: Surface Mount Components Only (includes I/O Connectors) Bare HDI Foil PCB mounts to Rigid Core
  • 23. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 23 Final Assembly All Components are S.M.T. > Heat Pipe & Condenser > Side A/B Joined S.M. I/O Connectors Side A/B Join (Registration Apparatus TBD) S.M. Connectors w/ Attachment into R.C. Heat Pipe / Condenser Assembled into core
  • 24. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 24 Final Assembled Unit Enhanced electrical performance Efficient thermal solution Increased reliability Low Profile Lowest Total Cost product Total Solution space = 70% Mfg & Assy process technologies + 30% product technology
  • 25. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 25 Risk Assessment of Technology EffortTechnology Evaluation Criteria Metric Multiplier Ranking Notes / Comments Ease of Manufacturability Specialty Manufacturing Process Yes = 1; No = 10 1 1 need to bring in New Processes, such as HDI-PCB capability, rigid core technology w/ integrated heat pipes, all SMT solutions for connectors would need to be developed. (I have new IP I am generating for that.) Materials stage: lab, prototype, development or production? lab = 1, prototype = 3, development = 5, production = 7 1 1 would need to develop a prototype line 1st in house to get the capability up and determine what the costs and issues would be to develop into a HVM line. Is material specialty or commodity? specialty = 5, commodity = 10 1 10 HDI is standard technology readily available today. Aluminum rigid core can be done outside --outsourced in the short term. Practical (least amount of effort for gain achieved) Comaparitive against one project versus another. Multiplier of other metrics w/in the technology evaluation criteria 1 1 Do not personnaly know of any other approach that attempts a higher level of integration with the exception of Sun and IBM as comparitive systems known vendor - sole supplier Vendor known yes = 10, no = 5. Sole supplier = 5, multiple suppliers = 10 1 10 Grohmann Engineering licensing or legal issues Intel IP Y = 10; N = 1. Have to x-license from someone else = 5 Ability to x-license to others = 10 1 20 IDF's already submitted last year cost POR cost = 5, more than POR cost = 1, less than POR cost = 10 1 10 Total system cost would be lower and enables a more efficient thermal x-fer mechanism than what is used today. No need to entertain refrigeration as a solution availability of engineering know-how (internal /external / none availale) internal = 10, external = 5, none available = 0 1 5 Grohmann Engineering, Fraunhofer Insititute and others have seen this and believe that it is a viable approach with the manufacturing capabilities that exist today. integration w/ VF Y = 10, No = 5 1 10 This would have to be a path pursued for a FOF model R&D resources available (internal/external/none available) internal = 10, external = 5, none available = 0 1 0 Extremely controversial approach, and requires an new perspective on architecture and business model Is it disruptive technology? (Will this provide signifcant competitive advantage/compelling value add to feature set) Characteristics of Disruptive Technology are: simpler, cheaper & lower perfoming. Yes = 1; No = 0, Generally promise lower margins, not higher profits. Yes = 1; No = 0, Intel's main customer's can't use the technology and don't want it Yes = 1; No = 0, 5 X 5 25 IDF submitted Yes = 10; No = 1 1 10
  • 26. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 26 Technology Evaluation Criteria Metric Multiplier Ranking Notes / Comments Unit Cost Impact No cost benefit to BOM, process, test, silicon or platform costs = 1 Potential cost reduction to BOM, process, test, silicon or platform costs = 5 Clear cost benefit to BOM, process, test, silicon or platform costs = 10 1 10 Implication to Business Model Technology dramtically changes the way Intel does business or introduces more business risk = 1 Manageable risks and changes to business model = 5 Technology leverage or improves business model or represetns low / mitigateable business risk =10 1 1 Return on Investment Technology does not demonstrate a return on investment = 1 Technology demonstrates a potential return on investment = 5 Technology demonstrates a clear return on investment = 10 Unknown. Would need a full in depth finance analyst to investigate this. No resources currently allocated to support Reasonable business risk Yes = 10; No = 1 1 10 Yes, since you would develop this in-house and only select one of your customersw to work with on this to develop the prototypes to prove out the business model and the technology. Business model now moves to entire PCB being delivered to OEM, end- user, Applicability Technology is limited to 1 or 2 products and/or market segments = 1 ; Technology can be applied across market segments but is limited to either cpu or non cpu.= 5 Technology can be applied across market segments and cpu and non cpu.= 10 1 10 Scaleability Technology is limited to 1 generation = 1 ; Technology can be applied across multiple generations but limited segments = 5 ; Technology can be applied across multiple generations and segments = 10 1 10 I/P control Intel has very little control of I/P = 1 Intel will share technology I/P with supplier = 5 Intel owns I/P = 10 1 10
  • 27. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 27 Technology maturity/ Time to development Technology will take 3 to 5 years to develop = 1 Technology will take 2 to 4 years to develop = 5 Technology will take 1 to 3 years to develop = 10 1 1 Potential benefit Technology will have limited benefit and is really an extension of existing technology =1 Technology will provide performance or cost benefit = 5 Technology will provide performance and cost benefit = 10 1 10 Risk Technology may have significant reliable issues. Will require significant effort and >4 years develop = 1 Technology may have some reliable issues. Will require moderate effort and 2 to 4 years to develop = 5 Technology may has no apparent reliable 1 1 52 Technology Evaluation Criteria Metric Multiplier Ranking Notes / Comments
  • 28. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 28 Now doing it Faster Using a software tool can speed up the process, instead of hours or days, now you can do it in minutes
  • 29. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 29 Backward Citations View Patent Details Patent Forward Citations View Patent Details 5793611 Cooling device with thermally separated electronic parts on a monolithic substrate 6292366 7294529 Method for embedding a component in a base 5355942 Cooling multi-chip modules using embedded heat pipes Printed circuit board with embedded integrated circuit 7286359 Use of thermally conductive vias to extract heat from microelectronic chips and method of manufacturing 5306866 Module for electronic package 7176382 Electrical circuit board and method for making the same 5199165 Heat pipe-electrical interconnect integration method for chip modules 7165321 Method for manufacturing printed wiring board with embedded electric device 4774630 Apparatus for mounting a semiconductor chip and making electrical connections thereto 6991966 Method for embedding a component in a base and forming a contact 4739443 Thermally conductive module 6788537 Heat pipe circuit board 4734315 Low power circuitry components 6680441 Printed wiring board with embedded electric device and method for manufacturing printed wiring board with embedded electric device 4631636 High density packaging technique for electronic systems 6490159 Electrical circuit board and method for making the same 4327399 Heat pipe cooling arrangement for integrated circuit chips (Quick) Patent Strength Analysis Original Patent 12 more patents reference this patent
  • 30. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 30 Evolutionary Potential 0 1 2 3 4 5 X Customer Expectation Repeat for other trends… Dynamisation Dimensionality etc Used by Permission DL Mann “Blue” area (trend potential), can be used to suggest R&D and TD direction as well as a focused brainstorming tool on current problems, instead of opinion based decision making.
  • 31. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 31 Evolutionary Potential…. …can be performed - for a specific system - for a component within a system - for a process - for a whole company - for an industry Used by Permission DL Mann
  • 32. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 32 Sub System A System Evolutionary Potential Hierarchy Sub System B Sub System C Sub System D etc X Y Used by Permission DL Mann Blue plot area is the potential, unexplored and undefined, opportunity to exploit and evolve the system to the next TRUE Evolutionary / Revolutionary step.
  • 33. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 33 Evolutionary Plot For PC (Laptop): Confidential
  • 34. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 34 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Twin Focus of Business Trends: Internal Organization External Market
  • 35. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 35 Current Business Model Maturity Customer Expectation Customer Purchase Focus Process Thinking System Robustness MBP(Sim) MBP(Var) MBP(IncDiff) Segmentation Sense Interaction TransparencyBoundary Breakdown Controllability Needs Hierarchy Human Involvement Interaction Listening Market Research Dynamization Vertical/Horizontal Benchmarking the MasterFoods business model against best business practice from a consumer-facing perspective: MasterFoods Iams
  • 36. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 36 Competitor’s Our Product or Service Our Competitive Advantage Product or Service + “Global Benchmarking” Analysis can also can be conducted along the lines of the Evolution of Business, IT & Software best practices Used by Permission DL Mann
  • 37. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 37 Examples: Business Evolutionary Trends Demographics Findographics Psychographics Autopoeisis Trial and Error Process Mapping Multiple Processes Process of Processes
  • 38. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 38 Overall Motel Front Desk House-KeepingBack OfficeGuest Services Hierarchical Breakdown: Used by Permission DL Mann Evolutionary Plots of the business, technology, processes, products and services creates an Innovation Roadmap for the Business Unit
  • 39. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 39 Infancy Rapid growth Maturity Decline Benefit-to-cost Time Technology Innovation: S-curve Make it work Maximize efficiency Minimize cost Prove idea Next-generation
  • 40. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 40 Special Case: System Revival Possible reasons: • New technology/material emerging • New situation
  • 41. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 41 Example: History of Armor Defense effectiveness Time Police Anti-riot Attire
  • 42. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 42 Example: History of the Shield Defense effectiveness Time
  • 43. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 43 Example: Sailing Ships Effectiveness (distance, speed, capacity) Time
  • 44. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 44 1st Stage of the S-Curve: Indicators and Recommendations Indicators New system, not yet on market. Components from other systems, rather than custom components. Integrates with supersystem elements. The new system must change or adapt to the supersystem. Consumes resources not intended for it. Number and magnitude of system modifications increase and then decrease almost to zero (like Darwin's Law – only the strongest systems win). System integrates with leading alternative systems. Recommendations One should work with existing infrastructure and resources. It makes sense to integrate the ES with systems that are leading at the moment. Main efforts should be concentrated on identifying and eliminating bottlenecks that prevent the system from entering the market. A forecast for supersystem development is required for systems that are in the 1st stage of evolution. Profound changes in system composition and in composition of its components (up to switching to another principle of operation) are admissible. It makes sense to develop the system with the intention of using it in one specific field - where the ratio of its advantages and disadvantages is the most acceptable. It is necessary to analyze physical and supersystem limitations of development with the aim of finding out the degree of promise of an ES.
  • 45. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 45 2nd Stage of S-Curve: Indicators and Recommendations Indicators Has not reached its development limits. There are a number of potential niches. Spreads to many areas. Differentiation among different system types grows. Uses existing supporting systems. Linear relationship between improvements made and resources required. Differences between system generations increases, then decreases almost to zero. System begins to consume resources customized for it. Recommendations It makes sense to solve problems by adapting the system to new fields of application. It is possible to focus on compromises and solutions aimed at limiting disadvantages, without eliminating them entirely. It is possible to utilize specially adapted resources of the supersystem. Moderate-degree changes should be introduced to the system design and the design of system components (without changing their principles of operation).
  • 46. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 46 3rd Stage of S-Curve: Indicators and Recommendations Indicators Has reached some development limits. Development is limited by contradictions. Is used in many areas. Combines with alternative systems. Acquires new functions not correlated with the main function. A number of systems exist to support the system. Improving functionality requires a disproportionate amount of resources. System generations differ mainly by design and service functions. Recommendations For the near and moderately distant future, one should be solving problems aimed at reducing costs, developing service sub-systems, and improving design. For the distant future, one should try to switch to another principle of operation for the ES or its components, which resolves contradictions hindering further development (overcoming limits). Deep trimming, integration of alternative systems, and other techniques of transition to the supersystem are highly effective.
  • 47. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 47 4th Stage of S-Curve: Indicators and Recommendations Indicators Forced out by more effective systems, which reach the 2nd stage of evolution. Supersystem changes reduce the need for the system. Supersystem changes make the existence of the system difficult – for example, resources needed by the system disappear. Continues to function only in highly specialized fields. Profitability decreases. Moves into the category of souvenirs, decorative objects, antiques, and so on. Begins to be used for entertainment; moves to the category of toys. Moves to the category of sports apparatus. Recommendations For the near future, one should be solving problems aimed at reducing costs, developing service sub- systems, and improve design. For the moderately distant future, one should look for fields in which the system would still remain competitive. For the distant future, one should try to switch to another principle of operation (for the ES or its components) which resolves contradictions hindering further development (limits overcoming). Deep trimming, integration of alternative systems, and other techniques of transition to the supersystem are highly effective.
  • 48. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 48 Resources for Students Systematic Innovation Website: If you tell them that I sent you, you can get a 5% discount http://www.systematic-innovation.com/Products/products01.htm
  • 49. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 49 Resources for Students Systematic Innovation Website: If you tell them that I sent you, you can get 5% discount http://www.systematic-innovation.com/Products/products01.htm
  • 50. - All Rights Reserved - - The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 50 Resources for Students Systematic Innovation Website: If you tell them I sent you, you can get a 5% off the price http://www.systematic-innovation.com/Products/products01.htm