INTRODUCTIONTelecommunication is a compound of the Greek prefix “tele” meaning far off, and the Latin―communicare”, meaning to share. In its current usage, it refers to transmission of signalsover a distance for the purpose of communication. Telecom industry has impact on everyaspect of our lives, from enabling telephone communication between people in differentlocations to enabling supply-chains to work seamlessly across continents to create productsand fulfil demands. Telecom services are now recognized as a key to the rapid growth andmodernization of the economy and an important tool for socio-economic development for anation. It includes mainly GSM, CDMA, data and voice service.In India telecommunicationhas started when the East India Company introduced telegraph services in India. Telecomindustry has seen exponential growth in last two decades in terms of technology, penetration,as well as policy due to liberalization in this sector and huge investment by both domestic andforeign investors. In the 1980s, government has monopoly in this sector with the departmentof post and telecom. In 1986 government set up two new public sector undertakingsMahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL) and Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited (VSNL).MTNL looked after telecommunications operations in Delhi and Mumbai. VSNL providedinternational telecom services in India. In 1990s, government start liberalizing this sector byallowing private players to provide value added services (VAS) such as paging services. InNational Telecom Policy 1994 government allowed private investments and involvement ofthe private sector were allowed to render basic services in the local loop.Indias telecommunication network is the third largest in the world on the basis of itscustomer base and it has one of the lowest tariffs in the world. There are more than 960million telephone subscribers and more than 121 million internet users. Whole country wasdivided into 23 circles and licences were given separately for each one. The circles wereclassified as Metros, A, B or C depending upon the revenue potential for the circle. Airtel,Idea, Vodafone, Reliance communication, Aircel, Tata Docomo, MTS, Uninor, Loop, BPL,BSNL, MTNL and Videocon are major players in the Indian Telecom sector.Telecom services in India can be basically divided into two major segments:(a) Telephones, Wire line and Wireless(b) Internet servicesAccording to TRAIs report Telecom Sector in India: A Decadal Profile, the tele-density hasincreased from 4.3 in March 2002 to 78.1 in February 2012, wherein the rural areas registeredan increase from 1.2 in March 2002 to 38.5 in February 2012. From 2001 to 2011, the totalnumber of telephone subscribers has grown at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of35 per cent. The increase in tele-density has mainly been driven by the increase in mobilephones.Telecom equipment manufacturing was delicensed in 1991 and value-added services weredeclared open to the private sector in 1992, following which radio paging, cellular mobile andother value added services were opened gradually to the private sector. The regulatoryreforms in the telecom sector from 2000 to 2011 can be broadly classified into the followingthree distinct phases.Phase 1
2000–2003Telecom sectors were opened up to competition.Phase 22004–2007Regulator encouraged competition and also set the stage for future growth.Phase 32008–2011More choices were brought in for consumers in terms of technology and services.SHARE OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS AS PER CENT OF GDP, 2000–01 TO 2009–10
TOTAL NUMBER OF WIRELINE SUBSCRIBERS AND GROWTHRATE IN INDIA, 2001–2011TELEDENSITY, MARCH 2000–FEBRUARY 2012
Thus, broadly the Indian telecommunication industry can be classified into the followingsegments:Wire line servicesWireless service: GSM and CDMAInternet servicesPublic Mobile Radio Trunked ServicesGlobal Mobile Personal Communication by Satellite (GMPCS)Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT)Mobile Value Added ServicesTELECOM INDUSTRY IN 2002There are three types of players in telecom services:State owned companiesBSNLMTNLPrivate Indian owned companiesReliance Info CommTata TeleservicesShyamForeign invested companiesVodafoneBhartiIdea CellularPORTERS FIVE FORCE MODEL OF TELECOM SECTOR FOR YEAR2002THREATS OF COMPETITORS(LOW)FACTORS EFFECTING COMPETITION1. High Exit Barriers:In any industry, if the exit barrier is high it increases the difficulty of any organization toleave the industry sector. The telecom industry suffers from high exit barriers, mainly due toits specialized equipment. Networks and billing systems cannot really be used for much else,and their swift obsolescence makes liquidation pretty difficult.2. High Fixed Cost:
The industry also suffers from high fixed cost which makes the entry barrier also very highfor the industry. It comes as no surprise that in the capital-intensive telecom industry thebiggest barrier to entry is access to finance. To cover high fixed costs, serious contenderstypically require a lot of cash. When capital markets are generous, the threat of competitiveentrants escalates. When financing opportunities are less readily available, the pace of entryslows. Meanwhile, ownership of a telecom license can represent a huge barrier to entry.6-7 players in each region3 out of 4 BIG-Four present in each region3. Very less time to gain advantage by an innovation:Every company in this industrial sector is investing a huge amount in research anddevelopment and marketing strategy. That is why we see any offer launched by any companyis counter attacked by other companies very soon. This makes the industry rivalry mostprominent. Example Caller tunes, life time card. Also, the new technology becomesobsolete in short span of time.4. Price wars:The price war is really very fierce in this industry. Price war in telecom industry hascommoditized the market that branding has taken a backseat.MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE MARKET IN 2002During this period, the public sector operators viz. BSNL, MTNL and VSNLmade the majorinvestments. The bulk of the investments in cellular mobile segmentwere by the privateoperators. The total investments by the public sector operators during the first four years ofthe Ninth Plan(1997-2002) was Rs.62358.20 crore. In 2002, VSNL was privatised and therenot many players as such in the telecom industry.Operators 1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02BSNL 8646.1 9450.3 12532.3 16395 16574.0MTNL 912.0 977.0 1250.0 1645 1600PRIVAT E COMPANIES 2078.6 6959.2 768.1 744.6 732.6The most important landmark in telecom reforms, however, came with the New TelecomPolicy 1999 (NTP-99) which can be termed as the new, or third, generation of reforms. Itsfirst qualitative difference was the acceptance by the government that telecommunicationswas a sufficiently important for common man whereas earlier it had been viewed as a ―cashcow‖. For example, the private sector had earlier been asked to bid for licenses to providetelecom services through a sealed bid auction in which the bidder paid a fixed fee. Thisproved unaffordable to the private sector owing to unrealistic calculations of the revenuepotential of a license, resulting in a near zero rollout of lines. Rather than insisting on theprior fulfilment of its revenue obligations,NTP-99 allowed private providers to ―migrate‖
from fixed license fee regime to a revenue sharing regime. The second qualitative differencewas that the regulator was strengthened, domestic long distance services were opened to theprivate sector, and the state-owned basic service provider under the Department ofTelecommunications was corporatized.The guiding principles of the NTP-99 are as follows:Affordable and effective communications to citizens is the core of the vision and goalof telecom policy.Balance between the provision of universal service to all uncovered areas, includingrural areas, and provision of high level services capable of meeting the needs of thecountry’s economyBuilding a modern and efficient telecommunications infrastructure to meet theconvergence of telecom, IT and the mediaConversion of PCOs into Public Teleinfo Centres having multimedia capability likeISDN services, remote database access, government and community informationsystems etc.Transformation of the telecommunications sector to a greater competitiveenvironment providing equal opportunities and level playing field for all playersStrengthening research and development efforts in the countryAchieving efficiency and transparency in spectrum managementProtecting the defence and security interests of the countryEnabling Indian telecom companies to become truly global players.1. BSNLBharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL)Year of Establishment 20002. MTNLMahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL)Year of Establishment 19863. BHARTIYear of Establishment 1985Bharti Tele-Ventures Limited was incorporated on July 7, 1995 for promoting investments inTele communications services. During the year 1997-98 BhartiAirtel Ltd becomes the firstprivate telecom operator to obtain a license to provide basic telephone services in the state ofMadhya Pradesh and in the same period the company forms Bharti BT VSAT Ltd., focusedon providing VAST solutions across India and Bharti BT Internet Ltd. The company acquiredJT Mobiles, cellular services operator in Punjab, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh and becomesthe largest private telecom operator in India during the period of 1999-2000. Also expands its
South Indian footprint by acquiring Skycell, Chennai. In 2002-03 the company made a briefcorporate restructuring by merging all the mobile operations into Bharti Cellular Limited andall fixed line, long distance and data services into Bharat Infotel Limited. BhartiAirtel made ahistoric strategic partnership with IBM and Ericsson for outsourcing the companys core ITand network activities and also launched Blackberry wireless solution India, as a result of anexclusive tie-up with Research in Motion (RIM). BTVLs two subsidiaries Bharti Cellular Ltdand BhartiInfotel Ltd have been merged with the company in the year of 2004.4. IDEA CELLULARIDEA Cellular Limited, a part of the Aditya Birla Group and an Indias leading GlobalSystem for Mobile communication (GSM) Mobile Services operator was began its journey inthe year 1995 as in the name of Birla Communications Limited for providing GSM-basedservices in the Gujarat and Maharashtra Circles.5. RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONSYear of Establishment 1999Reliance InfocommIn December 2002, Reliance Infocomm launched its much talked about WLL(M)serviceunder the Basic Service license using CDMA technology.2002• ILD services unlocked to competition• Go-ahead to CDMA technology• Initiation of internet telephony in India• Reduction of licence fees6. TATA TELESERVICESYear of Establishment 19967. VODAFONEVodafone Essar in India is a subsidiary of Vodafone Group Plc and commenced operations in1994 when its predecessor Hutchison Telecom acquired the cellular licence for Mumbai.THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS(HIGH)Post liberalization, government took number of steps to improve India’s competitiveness inglobal market. In order to facilitate the telecom sector, several reforms have been introducedin the sector during the past decade. The national telecom policy of 1994 and New TelecomPolicy of 1999 has been driving force of the development and liberalization in this sector.Since its inception, Department of Telecommunication (DoT) is formulating developmentalpolicies for driving the growth of the telecom sector. These policies created suitableenvironment for private players to enter the telecom market.
The underlying theme of New Telecom Policy, 1999 was to usher in full competition throughunrestricted entry of private players in all service sectors. The policy favoured the migrationof existing operators from the era of fixed license fee regime to that of revenue sharing. Thepolicy further outlined the strengthening of the regulator, opening up of International LongDistance (ILD) and National Long Distance (NLD) services to the private sector andcorporatization of telecom services. Accordingly, the year 2001 witnessed the entry of privateoperators in offering basic telephony and NLD services and the introduction of additionalplayers, in every cellular circle. This phase of reforms also saw VSNLs monopoly endingprematurely in April 2002, when the ILD sector was thrown open to the private sector toherald the era of unlimited competition in the industry.In 2002, Government brought in Unified Access Service Licensing Regime. It marked theend of licensing regime in the Indian Telecom industry. It eliminated the need for differentlicenses for different services. Players were now allowed to offer both mobile and fixed-lineservices under a single license after paying an additional entry fee. It helped in aligningconvergent technologies and services.With these reforms, the telecom sector began witnessing a trend of growth never seen before.Basic services have been opened for unlimited competition; more licenses have been issuedto the private sector for cellular services. Tele-density, too, has increased from 1.07 in 1995to 2.8 in 2000 and stood at 5.72 as of August 2003. While it is expected to continue risingsharply in a very short period, the issue of telephone accessibility remains to be addressedsatisfactorily.The telecom sector has thus completely changed, both in terms of coverage, and efficiency ofservices offered. Provision of landlines on demand in certain places, telephone exchangesgoing digital, and the acceptability of optic fibre and wireless technology are but a fewinstances of the change that swept the industry.In the area of cellular services, the number of licenses stood at four operators in each circle,with the services is being run in eighteen telecom circles and four metro cities. The state ofJammu and Kashmir was the nineteenth telecom circle to be made operational, although thiswas only in August 2003. The current subscriber base in the cellular market has risen to 183lakh as of September 2003. The cellular service providers also providing a lot of value-addedservices such as SMS, location based services, etc., and these to now form an importantconstituent of the cellular service providers’ revenues.TELECOM PLAYERSOn the national front, in the year 2002, BSNL, BhartiAirtel, Vodafone and little known BPLMobile communications were the dominant players. But after the New Telecom Policy, theincreased growth prospects lured many new companies in the market. Some of the newentrants were –1. IDEA CELLULARIn 2000, Tata Cellular was a company providing mobile services in Andhra Pradesh. WhenBirla-AT&T brought Maharashtra and Gujarat to the table, the merger of these two entities
was a reality. Thus Birla-Tata-AT&T, popularly known as Batata, was born and was laterrebranded as IDEA.Then Idea set sights on RPG’s operations in Madhya Pradesh which was successfullyacquired, helping Batata have a million subscribers, and the license to be the fourth operatorin Delhi was clinched.In 2004, Idea (the company had by then been rechristened) bought over the Escorts group’sEscotel gaining Haryana, Uttar Pradesh (West) and Kerala — and licenses for three more —UP (East), Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh. By the end of that year, four million Indianswere on the company’s network. In 2005, AT&T sold its investment in Idea, and the yearafter Tatas also bid good bye to pursue an independent telecom business. And Idea was leftonly with one promoter, the AV Birla group. Rs 2,700 crore adding Punjab and Karnatakacircles.Modi’s joint venture partner, Telekom Malaysia, invested Rs 7,000 crore for a 14.99%stake in Idea. Just around then, Idea’s subsidiary, Aditya Birla Telecom sold a 20% stake toUS-based Providence Equity Partners for over Rs 2,0000 crore.2. RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONSReliance Mobile (formerly Reliance India Mobile) was launched on 28th December, 2002coinciding with the birthday of Late DhirubhaiAmbani. In 2003, AC Nielson voted relianceMobile as India’s most trusted telecom brand. In July 2003, it created a world record byadding one million subscribers in 10 days through its ―Monsoon Hungama‖ Offer.3. TATA TELESERVICESTata Teleservices Limited (TTL) spearheads the Tata Groups presence in the telecom sector.Incorporated in 1996, TTL is the pioneer of the CDMA 1x technology platform in India andembarked on a growth path after the acquisition of Hughes Telecom (India) Limited[renamed Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Limited] by the Tata Group in 2002. It launchedmobile operations in January 2005 and today enjoys a pan-India presence through existingoperations in all of Indias 22 telecom Circles. The company is also the market leader in thefixed wireless telephony market and also enjoys leadership position in the enterprise space.Tata Teleservices Limited was also the first Indian private telecom operator to launch 3Gservices in India under the brand name Tata DOCOMO, with its 3G launch in all the ninetelecom Circles where it bagged the 3G license in November 2010. In association with itsNTT DOCOMO, the Company finds itself favorably positioned to leverage this first-moveradvantage.
Because of lucrative prospects of growth, new entrants entered in the market. Because of it,Indian Telecom Industry witnessed price wars and aggressive marketing strategies. Incomingcalls became free in 2003, and outgoing call rates slashed by half in a matter of few years.Because of increased competition, Indias teledensity has improved from under 4% in March2001 to around 71% by the end of March 2011. Cellular telephony has emerged as the fastestgrowing segment in the Indian telecom industry. The mobile subscriber base (GSM andCDMA combined) has grown from under 2 m at the end of FY00 to touch 812 m at the endof March 2011 (average annual growth of nearly 73% during this eleven year period). Tariffreduction and decline in handset costs has helped the segment to gain in scale. The cellularsegment is playing an important role in the industry by making itself available in the rural andsemi urban areas where teledensity is the lowest.BARGAINING POWER OF SUPPLIERS (2002)(HIGH)Analysis of the determinants of relative power between the producers in an industry and theirsuppliers is precisely analogous to analysis of the relationship between producers and theirbuyers. The only difference is that it is now the firms in the industry that are the buyers andthe producers of inputs that are the suppliers. The key issues are the ease with which the firmsin the industry can switch between different input suppliers and the relative bargaining powerof each party. Because raw materials, semi-finished products, and components are oftencommodities supplied by small companies to large manufacturing companies, their suppliersusually lack bargaining power. Hence, commodity suppliers often seek to boost theirbargaining power through cartelization (e.g., OPEC, the International Coffee Organization,and farmers’ marketing cooperatives). A similar logic explains labor unions. Conversely, thesuppliers of complex, technically sophisticated components may be able to exert considerablebargaining paper. The supplier power of Intel in microprocessors, Microsoft in operatingsystems, Sharp in flat screens, and Seagate in disk drives has been a powerful factordepressing the profitability of the PC manufacturers. Forward integration by suppliers into a
customer industry increases their supplier power and depresses profitability in the customerindustry.Mobile phone manufacturers are the primary supplier to the mobile phone operator market.These manufacturers were dominated by Ericsson, Nokia, and Motorola with 61 percent ofthe market. Because the mobile phone manufacturing brands were more important toconsumers than the mobile phone operators themselves, bargaining power of suppliers washigh. Industry firms are not a significant customer for the supplier group because thesuppliers operate in far more international locations and markets than the mobile phoneoperators. Suppliers’ goods are critical to buyers marketplace success. Mobile phonemanufacturers could integrate forward into the industry. These suppliers were credible,having substantial resource and provide a highly differentiated product.BARGAINING POWER OF BUYERS (LOW TO MODERATE)With not of many companies in the market in 2002, which are providing the services, thebargaining power of buyers is low. They not had much option. Other than two state ownedcompanies – BSNL and MTNL and some private Indian owned companies – reliance andTata there were not many players in market. These companies were providing some basicservices and rates were high. They were not very customer focused. The service provided byBSNL and MTNL might not be of very good quality but they were of low cost and otherprivate were players were charging more. Industry was monopolistic in nature.Since thenumber of players were less,buyers did not have to choose from and therefore the bargainingpower was low but my the end of 2002,because of the introduction of CDMA by reliance anmultiple tariff plans offered by other players,the bargaining power of the customers increasedmoderately.THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES (LOW)In 2002, telecom service providers faced threat from internet. But, there were few emailservices in 2002 (Yahoo mail, Hotmail, Rediffmail). Yahoo, Hotmail and Rediffmail alsoprovided chat messengers. But the internet had low penetration in India in 2002 with around10 million users compared to 121 million internet users in 2012.Hence the threat to telecomservice providers from substitutes was very low in 2002.
INDIAN TELECOM INDUSTRY IN 2012Indias telecommunication network is the third largest in the world on the basis of itscustomer base and it has one of the lowest tariffs in the world. India has the worlds second-largest mobile phone user base with over 929.37 million users as of May 2012. It hasthe worlds third-largest Internet user-base with over 121 million as of December 2011.The industry is expected to reach a size of 344,921 crore (US$62.43 billion) by 2012 at agrowth rate of over 26 per cent, and generate employment opportunities for about 10 millionpeople during the same period. According to analysts, the sector would create directemployment for 2.8 million people and for 7 million indirectly. The total revenue of theIndian telecom sector grew by 7% to 283,207 crore (US$51.26 billion) for 2010–11financial year, while revenues from telecom equipment segment stood at117,039 crore (US$21.18 billion).Whole country was divided into 23 circles and licences were given separately for each one.The circles were classified as Metros, A, B or C depending upon the revenue potential for thecircle. Airtel, Idea, Vodafone, Reliance communication, Aircel, Tata Docomo, MTS, Uninor,Loop, BPL, BSNL, MTNL and videocon are major players in the Indian Telecom sector.PORTER FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS OF TELECOM SECTOR FOR YEAR 2012
1. BARGAINING POWER OF SUPPLIERS (MEDIUM)Telecom sector suppliers include companies providing broadband switching equipment,fiber-optic cables, mobile handsets and billing software. There are companies like Elcoteq,Flextronics, Perlos, ZTE, Huawei, Alcatel lucent, cisco, Seimens and Ericsson in equipmentmaking.Cisco is the market leader in switching equipment. Due to investment in IT and BPO,government e- governance initiatives these equipments are in demand.Tyco and D-Link are market leader in cabling and major demand is from ITES, BPO, KPOand BFSI sector. Transmission equipment, wlan, fixed phones and mobile handset are otherequipment having presence as suppliers. In mobile handset Nokia, Samsung, LG, Sony andBlackberry are major players.With the convergence of data and voice services companies are focusing more on ITinfrastructure to enable and sustain their growth. With the huge cost of equipments andservicing agreement service providers usually sign long term agreement with equipmentmanufacturer. These suppliers always get affected with policy changes and TRAI rulingsregarding 2G, 3G and other services which lead to surge or dip in demand. In 2010-11 thisindustry has revenue of Rs 1,14,133 crore due to heavy demand from service operator forexpansion of 3G network but it falls in 2012 due to cancellation of 122 licences.Equipment market has become price competitive with emergence of Chinese players likeZTE and Huawai. As equipments like switch, cable, handset and transmission devices arebackbone of telecom sector but due to presence of large number of local and multinationalmanufacturers, service providers have freedom to choose and bargain. For supplier mainbargaining position is after sales service agreement and price. So first glance, it might looklike telecom equipment suppliers have strong bargaining power over telecom operators. Butthey are in a weak position in reality.2. THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS (LOW)Due to capital intensive industry high finance requirement is major concern for companieswho planned to enter in this industry. Also strict government regulation on frequencyallocation, evident scams, Court and TRAI interference on schemes and tough rules for entryhas made this sector difficult to enter. New player has to pay entry fee, license fee, equipmentcost and expert managers to establishment in market where there are already so many playersand prices are lowest in the world and average revenue per user (ARPU) is declining.Recently government has fixed floor price of spectrum at Rs 14000 crore which shows strongregulatory pressure on already bleeding telecom companies. Also most of the present telecomcompanies spent huge amount of marketing and have celebrity brand ambassador assachintendulkar, Shahrukh khan, M S Dhoni, Kareenakapoor, etc. So a new entrant has toface so many challenges in form of high starting cost, operating cost, marketing cost andgovernment pressure and have to maintain competitive call rates to be in market whichaltogether make this sector difficult to enter.
Current telecom players in Indian market are Airtel, Vodafone, Aircel, Reliance, Idea, BSNL,MTS, TATA Docomo, Videocon and MTNL. There are already so many players with theirprofit plummeting in every subsequent quarter it is unattractive sector for new entrants.Although government has approved FDI upto 49% in personal mobile communication,74% ininternet and radio paging services but still it is not attracting much new companies due tosocio-political environment of country.3. BARGAINING POWER OF BUYERS (HIGH)Without much analysis one can understand the power of buyers in Indian market with the factthat telecom services rates are lowest in the world here. With government rules regardingroaming free network, number portability, lack of differentiation and increased choice interms of products and services power of buyers is rising. With the presence of more thanfifteen telecom companies in India everyone is competing for increasing customer share.Most of the companies have schemes for data and voice services which are similar in offeringand strong pressure of TRAI regarding service charge has also reduced their freedom todifferentiate more. Now most of the service providers are present in the entire circles soconsumers have lot of choices to switch in case of dissatisfaction with services. Also with thecommencement of regulation on number portability has make market more competitive andbuyers more strong. So overall, buyers have strong bargaining power in telecom sector.4. COMPETITIVE RIVALRY (HIGH)The above figure shows the revenue market share of telecom providers as on 31stMarch,2012.Due to high fixed cost, low average revenue per user and high exit barriers have createdstrong rivalry in telecom sector. There are more than 15 telecom companies in India and atleast five to six are present in each circle. To increase customer share if one reduce its prices27.423.3188.8.131.52.6184.108.40.206 0.5Market ShareAirtelVodafoneIdeaTataRCOMBSNLAircelUninor
all do the same and innovations are no longer an advantage for particular company. All areendorsing their products by celebrities and are providing same value added services. Due toannouncement of 3G auctioning and its lure for attracting customers many companies comeinto market but can’t sustain in the price sensitive market.5. THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES (LOW)The threat that substitute products pose to an industrys profitability depends on the relativeprice-to-performance ratios of the different types of products or services to which customerscan turn to satisfy the same basic need. The threat of substitution is also affected by switchingcosts - that is, the costs in areas such as retraining, retooling and redesigning that are incurredwhen a customer switches to a different type of product or service.The potential major substitutes for telecom industry are as follows:VOIP (Skype, Messenger etc.)Online ChatEmailSatellite phonesAll of these technologies have a huge potential, though none of the above a major threat incurrent scenario.COMPARITIVE ANALYSIS OF YEAR 2002-2012FORCES 2002 20121. THREAT OF EXISTING COMPETITORS LOW HIGH2. THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS HIGH MEDIUM3. BARGAINING POWER OF SUPPLIERS HIGH 1204. BARGAINING POWER OF CUSTOMERS LOW toMODERATELOW5. THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES LOW LOW