Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer, presented the fourth quarter and full year 2010 financial results and an update on Shell’s strategic priorities at the Credit Suisse Energy Summit in Vail, Colorado.
Korea District Heating Corporation 071320 Algorithm Investment Report
Simon Henry - Credit Suisse Energy Summit - February 10, 2011
1. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
CREDIT SUISSE 2011 ENERGY SUMMIT
VAIL, CO.
FEBRUARY 10, 2011
SIMON HENRY
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
2. DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves for all 2009 data, and includes both SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining
reserves for 2007 and 2008 data.
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves or SEC proven mining reserves. Resources are
consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.
Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining reserves (for 2007 and 2008) excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and
year-end pricing impact.
To facilitate a better understanding of underlying business performance, the financial results are also presented on an estimated current cost of supplies (CCS) basis as applied for the Oil Products and
Chemicals segment earnings. Earnings on an estimated current cost of supplies basis provides useful information concerning the effect of changes in the cost of supplies on Royal Dutch Shell’s results
of operations and is a measure to manage the performance of the Oil Products and Chemicals segments but is not a measure of financial performance under IFRS.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for
convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those
who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell
companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a
controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control
are referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for
convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 24% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company,
after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical
fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and
assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.
Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations,
beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’,
‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of
factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this
presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for the Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production
results; (e) reserve estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition
properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j)
legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries
and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays
in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary
statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal
Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2009 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking
statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 10 February 2011. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-
looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking
statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual
production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation that SEC's guidelines
strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
2 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
3. PERFORMANCE
STRATEGY PRIORITIES 2010 RESULTS
CCS EARNINGS $ BILLION
20
PERFORMANCE FOCUS
15
NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION 10
GROWTH
5
MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF
PROJECT OPTIONS 0
EARNINGS EXCLUDING IDENTIFIED ITEMS
Competitive performance – Profitable growth – Sharper delivery
3 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
4. PERFORMANCE FOCUS
PERFORMANCE FOCUS: NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH
COST PERFORMANCE MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF
PROJECT OPTIONS
UNDERLYING COSTS
$ BILLION •2010 delivery
FX
PENSIONS •Corporate reorganization
45 PROVISIONS •Underlying costs reduction of $2.0 bln
• -$4 bln (10%) since 2009 & 2010
40 COST SAVINGS
35
30 • Continuous improvement strategy
2009 2010
EXAMPLE: STANDARDIZATION
•Offshoring
•Global contracting & procurement
OFFSHORING TO LOW COST SHARED SERVICE CENTERS
•Simplification
‘000s STAFF
10
8
6
4
2
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Simpler Structures - Capital Efficiency - Commercial Mindset
4 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
5. PERFORMANCE FOCUS
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT: NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF
PROJECT OPTIONS
ASSET SALES PROGRESS 2010 & 2011 YTD ~$30 BILLION DIVESTMENTS – 5 YEARS
$ BILLION CUMULATIVE
Finland & Sweden 30
CORPORATE
Statfjord UPSTREAM
Harburg DOWNSTREAM
Heide Refinery
US retail
South Texas
Syria
Greece
GOM assets 20
El Salvador
Panama & Costa Rica
Nigeria
21 countries
Africa 10 % Woodside
Chile
10
New Zealand
Divestment Deal Complete 0
06 07 08 09 10
5 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
6. PERFORMANCE FOCUS
DELIVERING NEW GROWTH NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH
MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF
PROJECT OPTIONS
6 NEW START-UPS IN 2010 ON TRACK FOR STRATEGIC TARGETS
On track for strategic targets
• Production growth
• +11% oil & gas production 2009-12
• 3.5 mln boe/d; ~3.7 mln boe/d 2014
• Cashflow growth
Tight gas, North America Perdidio, USA • + 50-80% 2009 – 12*
START-UP PERFORMANCE
Example: Gbaran Ubie (100%), Nigeria
kboe/d
Singapore Chemicals AOSP Jackpine mine, Canada ACTUAL
100 PLAN
50
GJOA PLACEHOLDER
0
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Gbaran Ubie, Nigeria Gjoa, Norway
2010
*$60-$80 OIL PRICE SCENARIO, 2012 ASSUMES NORMALIZED DOWNSTREAM AND
NATURAL GAS ENVIRONMENT
6 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
7. PERFORMANCE FOCUS
QATAR: PROJECTS ON TRACK NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH
MAJOR START-UPS 2011 MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF
PROJECT OPTIONS
PEARL GTL: MAJOR CONSTRUCTION COMPLETE
Air separation unit •Commissioning underway; ~12 months start-up
•Sequential start-up of two trains
•2012 full GTL capacity achieved
•1.6 bcf/d wet gas
•120 kboe/d NGL/ethane
Sales products
•140 kboe/d GTL products
•Shell 100% in partnership with Qatar Petroleum
QATARGAS 4: STARTING UP
LNG train
•First gas into plant – Jan 2011
•LNG ramp-up H1 2011
•7-8 mtpa + 70 kboe/d condensate
•Shell 30%
First steam from boilers
7 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
8. PERFORMANCE FOCUS
PEARL: PROJECT ON TRACK NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH
START-UP 2011 MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF
PROJECT OPTIONS
8 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
9. PERFORMANCE FOCUS
NORTH AMERICA HEAVY OIL PROJECTS NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH
MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF
PROJECT OPTIONS
PORTFOLIO EXPANSION #1RAMP UP
MINING kboe/d
IN SITU/OTHER 150
UPGRADER
EXPANSION
Peace River Athabasca
100 ONLINE EARLY ‘11
Cold Lake JACKPINE ONLINE
SEPT ‘10
50
AERA
0
2010 2011 2012
CAPACITY OUTLOOK
Kboe/d Mine
Expansions
Carmon
400 Creek
Debottlenecking
Mine +
Expansion
In Situ+
AERA
200
0
2008-09 2010-11 ~2020+
New Jackpine Mine Extraction & Tailings Area
ONSTREAM CONSTRUCTION OPTIONS
9 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
10. PERFORMANCE FOCUS
NORTH AMERICA TIGHT GAS GROWTH NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH
MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF
PROJECT OPTIONS
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING IN KEY PLAYS PRODUCTION GROWTH
Kboe/d Mmscf/d
250
1,400
Groundbirch
Deep Basin 1,200
200
Foothills
Existing Acreage 1,000
New Positions 150
Pinedale 800
Marcellus 100 600
400
Eagle Ford Haynesville JV
50
200
0 0
SHELL ASSET BREAK EVEN PRICE 2010
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 H1
$/mcfe required for positive NPV
8
Rapid portfolio growth build following Pinedale
6 success since 2001
4 Industry leading tight gas portfolio
2
~$17 billion E&A + acquisition invested since
0
2001: ~40tcfe resources potential
Focus on low cost entry + contiguous acreage
BREAKEVEN PRICE ONGOING BASIS
South Texas divestment: $1.8 Bln
10 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
11. PERFORMANCE FOCUS
EXPLORATION TO PRODUCTION NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH
2010 PERFORMANCE MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF
PROJECT OPTIONS
DISCOVERY APPRAISAL FID
2010 FIDs
• MARS B, Gulf of Mexico
•~100,000 boe/d TLP capacity (Shell 72%)
•BC-10 Phase 2, Brazil
•~30,000 boe/d (Shell 50%)
GULF OF MEXICO
• 3 discoveries & 1 appraisal success
•~450 mln boe resources (Shell)
• Appomattox (Shell 80%), Cardamom Deep (Shell
100%), South Deimos (Shell 72%)
• Vito appraisal (Shell 55%)
BRAZIL
• BC-10 Massa (Shell 50%)
• Oil discovery, Campos Basin
• Potential for BC-10 Phase 3
• Gato do Mato, BMS-54 (Shell 80%)
• Oil discovery, Santos Basin
• New wells planned to assess commerciality
AUSTRALIA
• 2 offshore gas discoveries
• Acme (Shell 33%), Brederode (Shell 50%)
• Clio-3 appraisal (Shell 33%)
BC-10 FPSO
Mars-B TLP MARS-B TLP
11 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
12. PERFORMANCE FOCUS
MARS-B NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH
MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF
PROJECT OPTIONS
SUB-SEA TIE BACKS….. ….. TO MARS-B TLP DEVELOPMENT
Mars A
~2 Km
Mars B
Boreas
exploration well
~5 Km
South Deimos
Exploration well
West Boreas
Drill Centre
Subsea Production System Olympus TLP
6 wells 15kpsi subsea tie-back to Mars B host 24 Slot TLP with West Boreas /South Deimos;
Discovery wells both reused for production ~100 kboe/d; Shell 72%
Flexibility to connect future subsea Capability to drill to >9,100 meters managed
developments depth
Future provision for Water Injection/Gas Lift
12 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
13. PERFORMANCE FOCUS
MATURING NEW PROJECT OPTIONS NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH
BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT: 2010 PERFORMANCE MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF
PROJECT OPTIONS
2010 PROGRESS
CHINA TIGHT GAS
• JinQiu PSC: 4,000 km2 tight gas
• Fushun JAA: 4,000 km2 shale gas
• North Shiloh CBM, Ordos basin
• Drilling in all 3 licenses
Sugar cane harvesting, Brazil
EAST RESOURCES ARROW ENERGY
• Marcellus shale • PetroChina and Shell
• 70 wells drilled since acquisition • 7-8 mtpa CBM-LNG potential
Drill pad in JinQiu, China
SHELL/COSAN JV IRAQ MAJNOON OIL FIELD
• 50/50, ~4500 Retail Stations • DPSC signed, Shell 45%
• Biofuels in Brazil • Targeting 175 kboe/d ~ 2012
• Shell 2nd generation biofuels tech • Current production: 65 kboe/d
•JV start-up April 1st
EAGLE FORD GREENLAND OFFSHORE
• Condensate rich shale • Block “Anu”, Shell 41%
• 6 wells drilled since acquisition • Block “Napu”, Shell 46%
• 20,000 km2, Shell operated
NEW EXPLORATION/RESOURCES ENTRY
13 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
14. INVESTMENT AND BALANCE SHEET
BALANCE SHEET
GEARING % CAPITAL EMPLOYED $ BILLION RETURN %
30% 200 40%
Gearing range
150
20%
100 20%
10%
50
0% 0 0%
Q405 Q406 Q407 Q408 Q409 Q410 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
OTHER ROACE
CAPITAL IN SERVICE RETURN ON CAPITAL IN SERVICE
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
CAPITAL INVESTMENT $ BILLION
2009 2010 2010 2011E
$ Bln TARGET
30
MIDDLE EAST
Organic investment 31 ~28 24 28 AFRICA, CIS
Acquisitions 1 ~7 7 1.61 20 ASIA-PACIFIC UPSTREAM
EUROPE
Disposals (3) (>2) (7) Up to 5
AMERICAS
10
Net Capital Investment 28 ~33 24 25-27 DOWNSTREAM
0
2010 2011E
1 COSAN (BRAZIL DOWNSTREAM & BIOFUELS JV)
14 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
15. SUMMARY
STRATEGY PRIORITIES 2010 DELIVERY
•2010 CCS earnings $18 bln (EPS +56%)
PERFORMANCE FOCUS •Oil & gas volumes 3.3 mln boe/d (+ 5%)
•$2 bln underlying cost savings
•$7 bln asset sales
•6 new start-ups 2010
NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH •Qatargas 4 starting up; Pearl GTL on track
•Launched 2 new deep water projects
•$7 bln acquisitions
MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF •New resource plays: Iraq oil, unconventional gas
PROJECT OPTIONS •Exploration success; 8 new discoveries
•Brazil retail & biofuels joint venture
Competitive performance – Profitable growth – Sharper delivery
EARNINGS CCS BASIS, EARNINGS AND EPS EXCLUDING IDENTIFIED ITEMS
15 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
16. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
CREDIT SUISSE 2011 ENERGY SUMMIT
VAIL, CO.
FEBRUARY 10, 2011
SIMON HENRY
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
16 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011
17. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
Q&A
17 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 04/02/2011