Royal Dutch Shell plc CFO Simon Henry - Barclays conference in New York, September 5, 2012
1. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
BARCLAYS NEW YORK
NEW YORK
SEPTEMBER 5, 2012
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 1
2. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
BARCLAYS NEW YORK
SIMON HENRY
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 2
3. DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves or SEC proven
mining reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum engineers 2P and 2C definitions.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal
entities. Shell Shell group Royal
Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us”
and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by
identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which
Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies
in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control are
g p p j
referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term
“Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 23% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership
interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other
than statements of historical fact are or may be deemed to be forward-looking statements Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are
are, be, statements.
based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or
events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the
potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and
assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’,
‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There
are a number of f f factors that could affect the f
ff future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially f
f ff from those expressed in the
forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for
Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental
and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such
transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments
including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l)
political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of
projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are
expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking
statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2011 (available at
www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this
presentation, 5 S September 20 2 N h Royal Dutch Sh ll nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any f
b 2012. Neither l h Shell f b d d k bl bl l d forward-looking
dl k
statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred
from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this
presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.
We use certain terms in this presentation, such as resources, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from
including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website
www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 3
4. OVERVIEW
Performance focus
H1 ‘12 earnings $13 bln; EPS unchanged
g g
H1 ’12 asset sales $4 bln
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
Growth d li
G th delivery
GROWTH DELIVERY
H1 ‘12 underlying production growth 4%
>20 projects under construction
p j
MATURE NEW OPTIONS
PERFORMANCE FOCUS New growth options
Expanding our opportunity funnel
E di i f l
Frontier exploration build
New integrated gas options
Earnings CCS basis, earnings and EPS excluding identified items
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 4
5. ENERGY INVESTMENT FUNDAMENTALS
ROBUST LONGER TERM FUNDAMENTALS MANAGING SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY
energy demand outlook in million boe/d
gy $/bbl $ per unit of measurement
p
140 12
400
120
10
100
300 8
80
6
200
60
4
40
100
2
20
0 0 0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Oil Biomass Coal Brent (LHS)
Gas Wind Nuclear Henry Hub $/mmbtu (RHS)
Solar Weighted average refining margin $/bbl (RHS)
Shell activities Other Renewables
Source: Shell analysis
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 5
6. CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
DOWNSTREAM: MINIMIZING UNPLANNED DOWNTIME UPSTREAM: WELL AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
% Oil production in ‘000 boe per day
10
95
5
85
75
0 Implementation
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H2012 of structured
WRM process
Oil Products 20,000 bpd
Chemicals 65
55
EXTRACTING MORE VALUE 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
FROM OUR ASSETS
Example: Oman
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 6
7. RECYCLING CAPITAL INTO NEW GROWTH
DIVESTMENTS 2011-2012 YTD ACQUISITIONS 2011-2012 YTD
~$12 ~$6
billion billion
Upstream Upstream
Downstream Downstream
Exit non-core positions Liquids-rich shales
Strategic partnering; Prelude, Groundbirch Frontier exploration plays
Refinery-to-terminal conversions LNG optionality
RIGOROUS FOCUS ON
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY
2012 DIVESTMENTS >$4 BLN
$4
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 7
8. GROWTH DELIVERY
RAMPING UP NEW PROJECTS
ATHABASCA OIL SANDS, QATARGAS 4, PEARL GTL PEARL GTL PRODUCT SLATE BUILD-UP
$ billion thousand boe/day
400 100% LPG
NAPHTHA NAPHTHA NAPHTHA NAPHTHA
GASOLINE
GAS OIL
NAPHTHA
200 GAS OIL
50%
GAS OIL
GAS OIL
KEROSENE
GAS OIL
0 0
BASE OIL BASE OIL BASE OIL KEROSENE
PARAFFIN PARAFFIN BASE OIL
0%
Typical
complex
-1
refinery
-2
2009 2010 2011 2012
FOCUS SHIFTS FROM
Capex DEVELOPMENT TO
Production (RHS) COMMERCIAL PERFORMANCE
Shell share
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 8
9. MAINTAINING GROWTH MOMENTUM
UPSTREAM KEY PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION UPSTREAM INVESTMENT 2012
%
Schiehallion
AOSP Debottlenecking Redevelopment Clair Ph2
Corrib
Kashagan Ph1
as aga
North America tight gas
h h
Tempa Rossa
Eagle Ford
Mars B Majnoon FCP UAE
Caesar Tonga
Cardamom Harweel Amal Steam
Forcados Yokri
Southern Swamp
p Sabah Gas Gumusut-Kakap
Kebabangan
K b b
Europe Asia Pacific
Bonga NW Prelude FLNG
Wheatstone LNG Americas Other
Pluto LNG T1 (Woodside) North Rankin 2
BC-10 Phase 2 Greater Western Flank Ph 1 Gorgon LNG T1-3
On stream H1 2012
Under construction
2012 H1 FID
ROBUST PROJECT FLOW + GROWTH OUTLOOK
8 BILLION BOE UNDER CONSTRUCTION
~4 MILLION BOED 2017-18
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 9
10. GROWTH DELIVERY 2012+
MAINTAINING LNG LEADERSHIP
AUSTRALIA – INDONESIA SHELL GLOBAL LNG CAPACITY + GROWTH
million tonnes per annum
p
Abadi FLNG
40
Greater Sunrise
Prelude FLNG Wheatstone
Browse & Prelude
Pluto (Woodside)
l (W d d ) North West Shelf Gorgon T1 3
G T1-3
Arrow
Wheatstone
Gorgon
20
Production
Under Construction
Options
p
0
2012 1H ~2020+
~21 MTPA ON-STREAM
21 ON STREAM Onstream
~7 MTPA UNDER CONSTRUCTION Construction
~15 MTPA FUTURE OPTIONS Options
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 10
12. SHELL UPSTREAM AMERICAS GROWTH
TIGHT/SHALE DEEP-WATER
AOSP Debottlenecking
Carmon Creek
North America
North America tight gas Liquids rich shales
Lowest cost gas + Growth focus
Eagle Ford integration plays
Under Construction
Mars B
M Mars-B development +
M Bd l t
Cardamom Appomattox Eagleford development new options
Options Stones Vito
+ new plays
2011 PRODUCTION HEAVY OIL
BC-10 Phase 2
BC-10 Massa Ph 3
Debottlenecking mining
options
Deep water
Tight/shale In-situ growth
opportunities
Heavy oil
l
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 12
13. MARS-B DEVELOPMENT
Mars-B Construction, South Korea
1989 1996 2000 2007 2009 2010 ~2015
1989 discovery; ~900 meters water depth
> 200,000 boe per day peak production
Mars First Oil First Oil First Oil West South Mars-B Start-up
Mars-B FID September 2010: Disco- Mars King & Deimos Boreas Deimos FID
100 kb /d TLP
kboe/d very Europa S b Subsea Disco- Disco-
South Deimos and West Boreas tie-backs Tie-Back very very
Shell 71.5%, operator
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 13
14. MATURING NEW OPTIONS:
EXPLORATION & BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
Miss. Lime BUILDING NEW ACREAGE
Bakken
Eagle Ford Wolfcamp Fox Creek ‘000 km2 cumulative gross acreage
g g cumulative spend $ billion
p
LRS
S
Neuquen
Exshaw 400 15
Niobrara
Colombia
Tight / Shale
Canol
Utica Turkey
Montney/Gundy
Entry cost
Jin Qiu 10
Gas
Fushun
Queensland Ukraine
Marcellus 200
Yinggehai
Greenland Fr Guiana
Turkey Albania 5
Acreage
g
Nova Scotia
N S ti
Frontier
Iraq
I Abadi
Ab di
Tanzania
Kalmykia New Zealand South Africa DW
Conventional
Timan Pechora
Qatar (block D) GOM
Brunei DW
0 0
UK 2009 2010 2011 1H 2012
artlands
GOM
Australia Canning
Malaysia
KEY WELLS IN H2 2012
Hea
Nile Delta
Philippines
ALASKA GOM
2010 2011 2012 1H
FRENCH GUIANA AUSTRALIA NWS
Building new acreage
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 14
15. NEW EXPLORATION POSITIONS
CONTINUED BUILD IN GULF OF MEXICO
GULF OF MEXICO: EAST GULF OF MEXICO: APPOMATTOX APPRAISAL
MC 347 MC 348 MC 393
Ram-Powell
R P ll
NW Appraisal
NE Appraisal
Appomattox H2 ‘12 MC 348 &
st
Vicksburg
Discovery
Mars
Ursa SW Appraisal Appomattox
Vicksburg
y
Discovery
Appraisal
Vito MC 391 MC 392 MC 393 H1 ‘13 DC 353
Well Penetrations
2012 Appraisal Shell Leases Oil
Success
S 2012 Shell access Wet 0 1
Shell Production
0 50 Shell Leases
Miles
Hubs miles
DISCOVERY FID START-UP
Caesar Tonga
C T
Mars B
Cardamom
Stones LEADING DEEP WATER PLAYER
Appomattox
Vito
Vi
GROWTH POTENTIAL
2005 2010 2015 2020
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 15
16. MATURING NEW OPTIONS
NEW NORTH AMERICA INTEGRATED GAS POTENTIAL
LNG Canada Green corridor gas-to-transport
Studying 12 mtpa at Kitimat 0.3 mtpa at Jumping Pound Shell’s integrated gas capabilities
Shell 40% + strategic partners
Equity + industry resources base
Natural hedge; oil/gas
differential
MOVABLE MODULAR LIQUEFACTION SYSTEM
(MMLS)
Western Canada gas resources
Groundbirch resource potential
increased from 6 tcfe to >12 tcfe
(Shell 80%) Gas-to Chemicals
Gas-to-
transport
GTL+ LNG
Options
Assess Select Define FID Execute Start-
up Operate NORTH AMERICA
GAS MONETIZATION
Feasibility Concept Project
Construction
C t ti
Ramp up
Ramp-up to OPTIONS
Study Selection Specifications full capacity
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 16
17. FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK
NET DEBT AND GEARING CAPITAL INVESTMENT
$ billion
$ billion
30%
30
20% 2010 2011 H1 2012
20
Organic Investment 24 26 14
10% 10
Acquisitions 7 5 1
0% 0
Disposals (7) (7) (4)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gearing (LHS) YTD
Net Capital Investment 24 24 11
Net Debt (RHS)
RDS VERSUS FTSE 100
Total dividend growth rate versus 2006
~$32 BLN ORGANIC CAPEX
30%
2012
20%
10% MAINTAINING PRUDENT
0%
BALANCE SHEET
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-10% YTD SELECTIVE PORTFOLIO BUILD
-20%
RDS dividend growth
FTSE100 dividend growth
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 17
18. SUMMARY
Performance focus
H1 ‘12 earnings $13 bln; EPS unchanged
g g
H1 ’12 asset sales $4 bln
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
Growth d li
G th delivery
GROWTH DELIVERY
Underlying production growth 4%
>20 projects under construction
p j
MATURE NEW OPTIONS
PERFORMANCE FOCUS New growth options
Expanding our opportunity funnel
E di i f l
Frontier exploration build
New integrated gas options
Earnings CCS basis, earnings and EPS excluding identified items
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 18
19. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
BARCLAYS NEW YORK
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 19
20. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
BARCLAYS NEW YORK
NEW YORK
SEPTEMBER 5, 2012
Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September 2012 20