Analyst webcast presentation Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter 2012 results and Strategy update
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Analyst webcast presentation Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter 2012 results and Strategy update

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Peter Voser, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, presented the Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter 2012 results and Strategy update to Analysts on January 31, 2013.

Peter Voser, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, presented the Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter 2012 results and Strategy update to Analysts on January 31, 2013.

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  • 1. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 1 FOURTH QUARTER 2012 RESULTS & STRATEGY UPDATE LONDON, JANUARY 31 2013 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC DELIVERING COMPETITIVE & INNOVATIVE PERFORMANCE
  • 2. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 2 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FOURTH QUARTER 2012 RESULTS AND STRATEGY UPDATE PETER VOSER CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
  • 3. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 3 Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions. Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact. The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this announcement "Shell", "Shell Group" and "Royal Dutch Shell" are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words "we", "us" and "our" are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. "Subsidiaries", "Shell subsidiaries" and "Shell companies" as used in this announcement refer to companies in which Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as "associated companies" or "associates" and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as "jointly controlled entities". In this announcement, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as "equity-accounted investments". The term "Shell interest" is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 23 per cent shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest. This announcement contains forward looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell and the Shell Group. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell and the Shell Group to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as "anticipate", "believe", "could", "estimate", "expect", "goals", "intend", "may", "objectives", "outlook", "plan", "probably", "project", "risks", "seek", "should", "target", "will" and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and the Shell Group and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward looking statements included in this announcement, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell's products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward looking statements contained in this announcement are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell's 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2011 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward looking statement speaks only as of the date of this announcement, 31 January 2013. Neither Shell nor any of its subsidiaries nor the Shell Group undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward looking statements contained in this announcement. Shell may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this announcement that the SEC strictly prohibits Shell from including in its filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in Shell's Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330. DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE
  • 4. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 4 ON TRACK FOR 2012-15 TARGETS  Maintaining our long term focus; managing short-term headwinds  2012 reported CCS earnings $27 billion, total CFFO $46 billion; delivering growth  Expected Q1 2013 dividend increase 4.7%, $0.45 per share, reflecting growth momentum GROWTH DELIVERY  12 billion boe resources on stream + 20 billion boe in development funnel  Exploration & deals add ~4 billion boe resources potential 2012  Growth priority: integrated gas, deep-water, resources plays CAPITAL DISCIPLINE + TRACK RECORD  2010-12 start-ups reach >10% of 2012 CFFO & ~20% of 2012 production; more to come  Robust 2013-17 project flow  Strong build in optionality - capital constraints driving hard portfolio choices RECONFIRMING OUR GROWTH AGENDA
  • 5. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 5 ‘GOAL ZERO’ ON SAFETY injuries – TRCF/million working hours million working hours ENERGY INTENSITY - REFINERIES Energy Intensity Index (EEITM) SPILLS - OPERATIONAL Volume in thousand tonnes FOCUS ON SAFETY AND ASSET INTEGRITY 2012 UPDATE  HSSE PRIORITY  PERFORMANCE + TRANSPARENCY Working hours TRCF
  • 6. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 6 ROBUST LONGER-TERM FUNDAMENTALS ENERGY DEMAND OUTLOOK million boe/d MANAGING SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY $/bbl $ per unit of measurement ENERGY MARKET Brent (LHS) WTI (LHS) Henry Hub $/mmbtu (RHS) Oil Gas Biomass Wind Coal Nuclear Other Renewables Solar Shell activities Weighted average refining margin $/bbl (RHS) Western Canada Select (LHS)
  • 7. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 7 TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT $ billion UPSTREAM  Growth strategy; price upside  Priority: deep-water, integrated gas, resources plays DOWNSTREAM  Optimize re-shaped portfolio  Selective growth CLIMATE CHANGE  Grow gas and biofuels  CCS and energy efficiency FINANCIAL OUTLOOK  Investing for growth and competitive payout  Through-cycle returns and risk management STRATEGY AND CAPITAL ALLOCATION SUSTAINED INVESTMENT: ~80% UPSTREAM Europe Africa, Middle East, CIS Asia Pacific Americas Upstream Downstream + Corporate Acquisitions Divestments DS + Corp.
  • 8. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 8 RECONFIRMING OUR OUTLOOK 2012 OUTLOOK Cash flow from operations $46 billion ($43 billion ex W/C) 2012-15: $175-200 billion Net capex $30 billion 2012-15: $120-130 billion Dividends distributed $10.8 billion 2013 >$11 billion Oil and gas production outcome 3.3 million boe/d 2017/18: ~4.0 million boe/d Gearing 9% 0-30%  NO CHANGE TO SHELL’S AMBITIOUS TARGETS  DIVIDEND INCREASE REFLECTS DELIVERY  EXPECTED STRONG PROJECT PIPELINE AND OPTIONS  CAPITAL CEILING DRIVES HARD CHOICES CFFO & capex outlook @$80-$100/bbl Brent and assumes improved US gas and Downstream environment from 2012; CFFO excludes working capital movements
  • 9. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 9 EARNINGS $ billion CCS CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS $ billion TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN TSR is averaged across year-end. Source: Datastream VOLUMES million boe per day million tonnes per annum Oil + Gas production volumes 2010-2012 asset sales LNG sales volumes IMPROVING OUR PERFORMANCE Other majors Upstream Downstream Corporate 2010 2011 2012 Shell Divestments/other +45% + ~70%
  • 10. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 10 UPSTREAM FACILITIES COMPONENT COST (IPA) BENCHMARK QUARTILE UNPLANNED DOWNTIME: DOWNSTREAM % Oil Products Chemicals LNG RELIABILITY % OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE  IMPROVING ASSET UPTIME  MANAGING COSTS 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
  • 11. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 11 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: ~20 START-UPS 2010-12 $ billion million boe per day Cash flow Organic capex 2010-12 TRACK RECORD North America: tight gas Norway: Gjoa Canada: AOSP-1 Singapore: Chemicals Nigeria: Gbaran Ubie Ph1 USA: Perdido Netherlands: Schoonebeek Qatar: Qatargas 4 LNG Qatar: Pearl GTL Oman: Qarn Alam Iraq:West Qurna NA: tight gas Australia Pluto LNG T1 2010 2011 2012 Production (RHS)  2012 IMPACT FROM 10-12 PROJECTS  >10% OF GROUP CFFO  ~20% OF PRODUCTION  FURTHER GROWTH POTENTIAL Brasil: Raízen CFFO and capex outlook at $100 Brent Qatar + AOSP-1 CFFO impact Qatar: Pearl GTL ramp-up USA: Caesar Tonga Ph 1 Malaysia: Gumusut-Kakap (early production) Oman: Harweel Raízen Qatar: Pearl GTL START-UPS 2010-12 Malaysia: Gumusut-Kakap NA: tight gas/shales Eagle Ford
  • 12. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 12 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC Q4 + 2012 RESULTS SIMON HENRY CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
  • 13. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 13 EARNINGS Q4 2011 TO Q4 2012 $ billion Q4 AND 2012 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FY 2011 FY 2012 UPSTREAM 20.6 20.0 DOWNSTREAM (CCS) 4.3 5.3 BUSINESS SEGMENTS TOTAL 24.9 25.3 CORPORATE & MINORITIES (0.2) (0.2) CCS NET EARNINGS 24.7 25.1 BASIC CCS EARNINGS, $ PER SHARE 3.97 4.02 CASH FROM OPERATIONS 36.8 46.1 SHARE BUY BACKS 1.1 1.5 DIVIDENDS 10.5 10.8 DIVIDEND, $ PER SHARE 1.68 1.72 Earnings CCS basis; earnings and EPS excluding identified items EARNINGS 2011-12 $ billion
  • 14. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 14 UPSTREAM & DOWNSTREAM PERFORMANCE Oil Products Chemicals DOWNSTREAM EARNINGS $ billion INDUSTRY REFINING + CRACKER MARGINS $/barrel Weighted average refining margin US ethane cracker margin (RHS) WE Naphtha cracker margin (RHS) $/tonne UPSTREAM EARNINGS $ billion $/barrel $/mscf SHELL OIL & GAS REALISATIONS Oil Gas (RHS) Other Upstream Integrated gas Earnings CCS basis excluding identified items
  • 15. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 15 Net Debt Gearing (RHS) CASH GENERATION $ billion $ billion Cash flow from operations Asset sales Acquisitions Capex + equity acc. investments STRONG BALANCE SHEET $ billion DIVIDEND TRACK RECORD $ billion $ billion Dividends declared FTSE 100 total dividends paid (RHS) CASH FLOW AND PAYOUT Gearing range  STRONG BALANCE SHEET  GENERATING SURPLUS CASH  SUSTAINED DIVIDEND PERFORMANCE Sources Uses Sources Uses Dividend and buyback UP STREAM DOWN STREAM UP STREAM DOWN STREAM 2010-12 2012 CFFO excluding working capital movements
  • 16. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 16 DIVESTMENTS 2010-2012 ACQUISITIONS 2010-2012 GROWTH OIL + GAS:  Resources plays  Increased stakes in Shell fields  New exploration acreage SELECTIVE GROWTH DOWNSTREAM:  Brazil biofuels, retail, Gasnor gas to transport REFOCUSED DOWNSTREAM:  Europe; Africa; Latin-America LATE LIFE/NON-STRATEGIC UPSTREAM:  Upstream ~130 kboe/d  Strategic partnering WORKING OUR PORTFOLIO FOR GROWTH & CAPITAL EFFICIENCY Upstream Downstream Upstream Downstream Permian, USA Beryl, UKHolstein, Gulf of Mexico Onshore assets, Nigeria
  • 17. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 17 2010-12 RESERVES ADDITIONS 2012 RESERVES PERFORMANCE  2012 RRR 44%  2010-12 RRR 84%  Reserves life at end 2012 ~ 11 years 2010-12 RESERVES AVG. PERFORMANCE  Organic2 additions ~ 4.2 billion boe  Production ~ 3.7 billion boe  Organic reserves replacement 115% SEC PROVED RESERVES POSITION Major reserves additions 1 Reserves attributable to Royal Dutch Shell shareholders 2 Excludes acquisitions, divestments and price impacts Expected SEC proved reserves; final volumes will be reported in 2012 20-F annual report RESERVES REPLACEMENT 2010-12 2012 ORGANIC 115% 85% ORGANIC INCL. PRICE EFFECTS 92% 50% SEC PROVED RESERVES (BILLION BOE) 2010 2011 2012 ORGANIC RESERVES ADDITIONS 1.7 1.5 1.0 PRODUCTION 1.2 1.2 1.2 NET RESERVES1 14.2 14.2 13.6
  • 18. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 18 CONVERTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION… billion boe Capital in service Capital other Return on capital in service (RHS) Return on capital employed (RHS) HYDROCARBON MATURATION + RETURNS …AND RETURNS $ billion % SUSTAINED PROJECT FLOW  12 BILLION BOE ON STREAM  20 BILLION BOE IN ~60 PROJECTS IN FUNNEL Longer-term upside Pluto (Woodside) Harweel NA tight gas/shales Eagle Ford Caesar Tonga Gumusut-Kakap (early oil) Tempa Rossa Fram Malikai Forcados Yokri Southern Swamp AOSP debottl. NA tight gas/shales Abadi FLNG Phase 1 Tukau Timur Zaedyus Zabazaba 2008 2009 2010 2011 On-stream Under Construction Study Production 2012 Gbaran Ubie Ph2 Rab Harweel Erha North ph3 ML South BC-10 ph3 Eagle Ford Permian Majnoon FCP Petai Amal Steam Kashagan Ph1 BC10 Ph2 NWS North Rankin 2 AOSP debottlenecking 2013 E
  • 19. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 19 EARNINGS PER SHARE GROWTH % growth 2010-2012 EPS + CFPS: four quarters rolling to Q3, earnings on reported CCS basis CAPITAL INVESTMENT $ billion % growth 2009-2012 CASHFLOW PER SHARE GROWTH % growth 2010-2012 Dividends four quarters rolling to Q3 , payout ratio DPS declared/EPS CCS reported COMPETITIVE PAYOUT Dividend $ billion % COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE  SECTOR-LEADING EARNINGS AND CASHFLOW GROWTH  MAINTAINING THROUGH CYCLE INVESTMENT PACE + CAPITAL DISCIPLINE  INDUSTRY-LEADING DIVIDEND + PAYOUT RATIO 2009 2010 2013E 2012 payout ratio (RHS)2012/ target 2011
  • 20. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 20 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC REFRESHING OUR GROWTH OUTLOOK PETER VOSER CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
  • 21. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 21 INVESTMENT PRIORITIES LONGER TERM GROWTH PRIORITY ENGINES  Reserves-rich plays with long-term drivers  Iraq, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Heavy Oil & Arctic  Slower pace + capital allocation  Integrated infrastructure + global capabilities  Standardized developments + technology  Extending cash flows through technology  Focused exploration + licence renewals  Long-term engine; taking steps to enhance profitability  Selective growth in chemicals, biofuels, growth markets  Leveraging Shell’s scale + market growth ORGANIC CAPEX 2013 $ billion  INVESTMENT CHOICES DRIVEN ON A GLOBAL THEMATIC BASIS  MORE EFFICIENT DEPLOYMENT OF CAPITAL, PEOPLE, TECHNOLOGY FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES RESOURCES PLAYS DEEP-WATER INTEGRATED GAS UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM
  • 22. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 22 US gas-to- chemicals  Long-term engine  Cost + portfolio steps to enhance profitability  Selective growth in chemicals, biofuels, growth markets DOWNSTREAM ENGINE Under development Options Qatar chemicals Gas-to-chemicals US China Singapore chemicals Raízen Port ArthurNanhai chemicals 2006 2010 2011 2013 FUTURE 2012+ deals Qatar chemicals Lubes Russia LNG to transport Rhineland Connect China Retail + Lubes China refining and chemicals Gasnor acquisition Clyde refinery conversion to terminal Key country Singapore Chemicals Cracker debottleneck SADAF expansion
  • 23. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 23 UPSTREAM GROWTH PORTFOLIO UNDER CONSTRUCTION 2012 FIDShell operated Kashagan Phase1 Majnoon FCP 2017+ 0.1 mboe/d Amal Steam Bab THG &HB-2 Bonga North West Forcados Yokri Fram Gumusut - Kakap North Rankin 2 SAS Southern Swamp AG CorribClair Ph2 Gorgon LNG T1-3 Malikai NWS Gas – GWF – Phase A Sabah Gas Kebabangan (KBB) Schiehallion Redevelopment Tempa Rossa Prelude Wheatstone AOSP debottlenecking Eagle Ford BC-10 phase 2 Cardamom Mars B, W.Boreas, S. Deimos North American tight gas North American liquids rich shales 2015-2016 0.3 mboe/d 2013-2014 0.5 mboe/d 2012 start-ups 0.2 mboe/d DEEP-WATER UPSTREAM ENGINE INTEGRATED GAS RESOURCES PLAYS FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES Caesar Tonga Ph 1 Pluto (Woodside) Harweel               Start-up/ Peak Production Production @ $80 Brent scenario  ~30 PROJECTS  7 BILLION BOE RESOURCES  0.9 MBOE/D North American tight gas Petai
  • 24. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 24 2013-14 START-UPS 0.5 MBOE PER DAY Kashagan Phase 1, Kazakhstan Majnoon FCP, Iraq MarsB Olympus hull arrives in Texas, USANorth Rankin, Australia 2013 EXAMPLES
  • 25. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 25 Design 0.7 mboe/d MATURING >30 NEW OPTIONS 2013+ >1MBOED POTENTIAL; 13 BILLION BOE RESOURCES Concept Selection 0.4 mboe/d Phase Peak Production Bosi Field Development Geronggong Gorgon T4 Expansion Nigeria NLNG Train 7 Pearls - Khazar Sunrise LNG Tukau Timur Zabazaba Zaedyus Abadi FLNG Phase 1 Arrow Energy LNG Bokor Phase 3 Browse (BCT) LNG Erha North Ph 3 ML South North American Tight Gas Rabab Harweel Integrated Project Appomattox Bonga North Majnoon FFD /West Qurna FFD  Vito BC-10 Massa (Phase 3)  Bonga South West Carmon Creek Expansion Ph 1 & 2  Linnorm Shell operated LNG Canada  North American Gas to Transport  STRONG BUILD IN OPTIONALITY  CAPITAL CONSTRAINTS DRIVING HARD CHOICES  PORTFOLIO CAN SUPPORT GROWTH TO ~2020 Production @ $80 Brent scenario AOSP Debottlenecking  North American Liquids Rich Shales    DEEP-WATER UPSTREAM ENGINE INTEGRATED GAS RESOURCES PLAYS FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES Gbaran Ubie Ph 2 Stones
  • 26. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 26 MAXIMIZING VALUE IN OUR UPSTREAM ENGINES EXAMPLE: EUROPE UPSTREAM Under construction On stream Corrib Schiehallion Clair Fram Tempa Rossa  Increased stake from 36% to 55%  Redevelopment underway  Beryl + Draugen stakes increased 2012 progress 2012 FID PRODUCTION million boe per day Netherlands UK Denmark Other Asset Sales 2010-12Norway  SELECTIVE ACQUISITIONS:  BERYL, SCHIEHALLION, DRAUGEN 2012  NEW GROWTH HUBS  BRENT DECOMMISSIONING CAPEX $ billion Draugen, North Sea, Norway
  • 27. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 27  Leveraging Shell’s scale + market growth  Technology and project delivery capabilities  Potential doubling of capacity  2012: ~0.8* mboe/d; 20 mtpa LNG INDUSTRY-LEADING INTEGRATED GAS PORTFOLIO Green Corridor GTT Hazira CAPEX RESOURCES $ billion On stream Under construction 8.2 billion boe Study Under construction On stream Liquefaction Regas Gas-to-transport GTL North America: developing new gas value chain options Pearl GTL Ramp up 2012 2012 progress Australia: major growth projects under construction SHELL GLOBAL LNG GROWTH On stream OptionsUnder construction 2012 ~2020+2007 million tonnes per annum * includes feedgas from non-integrated ventures
  • 28. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 28 NORTH AMERICA AUSTRALIA/INDONESIA  7 mtpa under construction  New LNG + FLNG options under study  Increased Browse equity; Prelude dilution  0.3 mtpa gas to transport under construction  LNG options, GTL, Gas-to-Chemicals under study for 2014+ FID NORTH AMERICA & AUSTRALIA INTEGRATED GAS CLOSE-UP Under construction On stream Options Construction Project Specifications Concept Selection Feasibility Study FID ExecuteDefineSelectAssess Start up Operate Ramp-up to full capacity LNG Canada US Gas-to-Chemicals Elba LNG Sunrise LNG Gorgon LNG T4 Green Corridor GTT NWS GWF Wheatstone LNG Gorgon LNG T1-3 Prelude FLNG North Rankin 2 US GTL Gulf Coast LNG Options Great Lakes GTT Gulf Coast GTT Arrow LNG Abadi LNG Browse LNG Northwest Shelf Pluto (Woodside) Pennsylvania Gas-to-Chemicals Gulf Coast LNG Options GTL Green Corridor GTT LNG Canada Great Lakes GTT Gulf Coast GTT Elba LNG Browse BCT LNG Prelude FLNG Gorgon LNG Sunrise FLNG Abadi FLNG Arrow Pluto LNG 1(Woodside) Wheatstone LNG North Rankin 2 NWS GWF Ph1 Gorgon T4 North West Shelf
  • 29. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 29  Established production leadership  Standardized developments + production technology  Frontier exploration potential  2012: 0.3 mboe/d GLOBAL DEEP-WATER LEADING IOC DEEP-WATER PORTFOLIO Under construction On stream New exploration Malaysia / BruneiGulf of Mexico Brazil  Mars-B  Cardamom  BC-10 ph2  Gumusut-Kakap  Malikai  Sabah Gas Kebabangan KBB  Petai CAPEX RESOURCES $ billion On stream Under construction 3.3 billion boe Study Nigeria Perdido Spar  Bonga North West
  • 30. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 30 DEEP-WATER GULF OF MEXICO 0.2 MBOE/D 2012; GROWTH POTENTIAL Auger Mars Ursa Nakika Brutus Perdido Vito  ~100 kboe/d potential  >300 million boe resources  Shell 51.33% (operator)  Final appraisal well underway Appomattox  ~150 kboe/d hub potential  500 million boe resources  Shell 80% (operator)  2013 appraisal of Vicksburg (Shell 75%) Stones  ~60 kboe/d FPSO  >250 million boe resources  Shell 60% (operator, increased stake) Caesar Tonga Cardamom Deep Mars-B W.Boreas, S. Deimos 100 km Mars-B, Olympus tension leg platform Under construction On stream Options Mars B ~100 kboe/d Shell 71.5 % (operator) Cardamom Deep ~50 kboe/d potential Shell 100% (operator) Tie – back to Auger FID START-UPDISCOVERY Mars B Cardamom Stones Appomattox Vito
  • 31. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 31 FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES MAJOR POSITIONS IN LONGER TERM PLAYS Under construction On stream AOSP debottlenecking + CCS Heavy Oil 2012 progress NIGERIA 2 onshore FIDs Completed $1.1 billion divestments IRAQ  Majnoon FCP 2013  Basrah Gas Company JV 2013 CAPEX RESOURCES $ bln On stream Under construction Study 8.1 billion boe RESOURCE RICH PLAYS LONG LEAD TIMES SLOWER DEVELOPMENT PACE + CAPITAL ALLOCATION 2012: 0.5 MBOE/D KAZAKHSTAN  Shell operatorship post start-up 2013 SPDC PHOTO OF NEW PROJECT PLEASE. DISCO = RUST BUCKET Forcados Yokri, Nigeria Arctic 2013 includes ~$1 billion for Basrah Gas Company (BGC) EAI injection
  • 32. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 32  2 top holes drilled  >20 vessels and 2,000 employees/contractors, ~12,000 employee rotations  Positive support from regulators + community  Kulluk rig incident 2012 ALASKA PERFORMANCE DRILLING FLUID BLOW OUT PREVENTER CAPPING STACK ARCTIC CONTAINMENT SYSTEM 1 1 2 2 3 4 3 4 MULTIPLE DRILLING BARRIERS Kulluk towed to safe harbour in Kiliuda Bay, Jan. 2013 Photo credit to Unified Command 300 km
  • 33. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 33 BUILDING CONVENTIONAL ACREAGE ‘000 km2 cumulative gross acreage cumulative spend $ billion Liquids Gas RELOADING OUR CONVENTIONAL PORTFOLIO Conventional EnginesFrontier Acreage Entry cost 2010 2011 2012 Building new acreage RESOURCES ADDED 2007-2009 Tanzania Nova Scotia Greenland Brunei DW Albania Iraq South Africa DW Kalmykia New Zealand Australia Canning Nile Delta Qatar (block D) Philippines GOM Timan Pechora Abadi French Guiana Malaysia Turkey UK North Sea GOM Yinggehai Egypt Benin Brunei billion boe 2010-2012 DELIVERY: ~5 BILLION BOE ~$3/BOE (E&A + DEALS) Abadi Iraq Australia Gabon Italy Colombia Guyana Libya Norway UK US GoM Tunisia Indonesia Alaska US GoM Deals Newfoundland Browse North Sea
  • 34. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 34 KEY RESOURCES ADDITIONS - DRILLING 2012 CONVENTIONAL EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL E&A RESOURCES ADDED 2012 billion boe Asia Pacific Americas Middle East, Africa, CIS Europe 2012 DELIVERY:  7 NOTABLE DISCOVERIES / APPRAISAL SUCCESSES  20 NEAR FIELD DISCOVERIES  ~600 MILLION BOE; >60% OIL Deep-water Brazil BMS-54 Gato do Mato appraisal (Shell 80%) Confirmed high productivity Malaysia: Tukau Timur deep gas Discovery (Shell 50%) Gas for MLNG Nigeria Deep-water Zabazaba Major oil play (Shell 50%) Gulf of Mexico appraisal Appomattox 500 mmboe (Shell 80%) FID ~ 2015 NWS gas Satyr 2/4 (Shell 25%) – gas for Gorgon T4 Arnhem & Pinhoe (Shell 50%) discoveries; FLNG potential Oil Gas
  • 35. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 35 BUILDING UP GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IN RESOURCES PLAYS TIGHT/SHALE OIL AND GAS E&A Changbei KarooNeuquen Ukraine Turkey Sichuan Positive initial exploration Germany Egypt Oman Colombia On stream Liquids rich shale Gas Liquids Rich  Tight gas CAPEX RESOURCES $ bln Future potential (prospective resources) 10.6 billion boe  2012 Portfolio Build  On stream Under construction Study LRS Dry gas BUILDING NEW TIGHT/SHALE ACREAGE Acreage Entry cost RESOURCES ADDED Liquids Gas Resources-Based Deals 2010-2012 DELIVERY: ~7 BILLION BOE ~$3/BOE (E&A+DEALS) Permian Marcellus Eagle Ford Arrow billion boe ‘000 km2 cumulative gross acreage cumulative spend $ billion LRS Sao Francisco Arrow  *2012 includes $3.5 billion acreage deals
  • 36. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 36 PRODUCTION NORTH AMERICA RESOURCES PLAYS PROGRESS TIGHT/SHALE OIL AND GAS  ~30,000 km2 portfolio, 60% liquids-rich  Eagle Ford LRS development underway  Drilling focus shifted to LRS from dry gas  ~10,000 km2 new acreage 2012  Permian acquisition $1.9 billion  Additions to existing positions  Integrated gas options Liquids mboe/day GasLRS $ billion CAPEX Dry gas bcfe/day Divestments Piloncillo, Eagle Ford Acquisitions Gas Positive initial exploration / appraisal Pinedale Groundbirch Deep Basin Foothills Utica Permian Exshaw Niobrara Mississippi Lime Eagle Ford Montney Canol Monterey Haynesville Marcellus Liquids Rich Shales Duvernay     Onstream 
  • 37. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 37 GROUP PRODUCTION OUTLOOK PRODUCTION OUTLOOK Region Theme CONVERTING RESOURCES TO CASH FLOW 12 BN BOE ON STREAM 20 BN BOE IN FUNNEL Europe Asia Pacific Americas Middle East, Africa, CIS Mars B TLP on its way to Gulf of Mexico Prelude cutting first steel in South Korea Outlook at $80 Brent, assumes improved US gas prices from 2012 and 250,000 boe/d divestments and lease expiries 2012+ Upstream Engine Integrated Gas Resources Plays Deep-water Future Opportunities
  • 38. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 38 2013 CAPEX & OUTCOME $ billion CFFO outlook @$100 Brent and assumes improved US gas environment from 2012; CFFO excludes working capital movements TURNING NEW INVESTMENT INTO CASH FLOW SPENDING PROGRAMME + NEAR-TERM CASH FLOW Exploration & Appraisal 2017+ 2015-16 KeyProjectsStart-up Upstream Base, Downstream + Corporate Longer Term 2012-15 CFFO 2013-14 ~50% of capex on stream by 2015 IMPACT OF KEY UPSTREAM START-UPS $ billion 2010-12 2013+ 2010-12 2013+ ORGANIC CAPEX CFFO
  • 39. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 39 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK SIMON HENRY CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
  • 40. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 40 ON TRACK FOR AMBITIOUS CFFO GROWTH + INVESTMENT PLAN ($100 scenario) $ billion 1 Portfolio/Choice negative impact on 2012 cash flow target: reduced NA gas drilling, divestments, project slippage 2 CFFO & capex outlook at $100, assumes improved US gas, WTI and Downstream environment from 2012; CFFO excludes working capital movements 3 Potential impact in $100 scenario from continuation of 2012 Downstream environment, Henry Hub, WCS and WTI discounts Cash flow from operations/ex working capital Net Capital Investment Dividends + buybacks Macro sensitivity3 Growth outlook:  New projects  Enhanced unit cash flow  Macro uplift Investment for sustained growth 2012-15:  ~$120-130 billion net spend  >$16 billion asset sales PRIORITY ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 2009 – 2012 average 2012 – 2015 average potential 2 2012 macro Portfolio/ Choice1 $91/bbl $112/bbl $100/bbl 2012 trend Free cashflow
  • 41. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 41 OIL & GAS PRODUCTION + OUTCOMES million boe/day Production + potential 2012+ asset sales PRODUCTION & POTENTIAL 2012 PERFORMANCE million boe/day Controllable PRODUCTION IS AN OUTCOME OF INVESTMENT DECISIONS CASHFLOW GROWTH > PRODUCTION GROWTH MULTIPLE PATHWAYS TO DELIVERY OF TARGETS UPSTREAM CAPEX + CFFO SCENARIO 2012 2013 2015 potential 2012Capex: CFFO: $ billion
  • 42. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 42 KEY WELLS EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL 2013-14 Exploration & Appraisal Acreage/Deals CONVENTIONAL $ billion 2010-12: 12 BILLION BOE AT ~$3/BOE (E&A + DEALS) INCREASED CONVENTIONAL DRILLING ACTIVITY: HIGH POTENTIAL WELLS; 18 BASINS CONTINUED DRILLING IN NEAR-FIELDS MORE LRS AND TIGHT GAS DRILLING: 10+ KEY PLAY TESTS 2013-14; MULTI-TCFE POTENTIAL Exploration & Appraisal Acreage/Deals RESOURCES PLAYS $ billion Frontier conventional US GoM French Guiana BruneiNigeria Albania Canning + Exmouth Alaska Neuquen LRS China Colombia Benin Gabon Ukraine Tight/shale North America LRS ‘13 ‘14 Turkey Qatar Yinggehai Kazakhstan Malaysia Tanzania New Zealand Oman Russia Germany Egypt Arrow Permian ZitongEast, Eagle Ford NA LRS Brazil Abadi Iraq Browse North Sea
  • 43. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 43 DELIVERING OUR SPENDING PLAN TOUGH INVESTMENT HURDLES TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT $ billion 2013 acquisitions announced in 2012: Basrah Gas Company formation, other announced Upstream positions ORGANIC CAPITAL INVESTMENT $ billion $ billion Exploration Key projects Growth Base CAPITAL INVESTMENT + OUTLOOK $ billion 2010 2011 2012 Target 2012 2013 Target Organic investment 24 26 ~32 32 34 Acquisitions 7 5 5 2 Total Capital Investment 31 31 ~32 37 36 Disposals (7) (7) (~2-3) (7) (3) Net Capital Investment 24 24 ~30 30 33 UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM Base Deep-water Upstream engine Integrated gas Resources plays Future opportunities Downstream engine
  • 44. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 44 MAINTAINING OUR FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK CASH PERFORMANCE  $175-$200 billion CFFO 2012-15  Grow free cash flow  CFFO drives investment + payout INVESTMENT  $120-$130 billion net capex 2012-15  ~$33 billion net capex 2013  Affordability, profitability, portfolio PAY-OUT  Dividend linked to business results  Scrip dividend with buy back offset  Expected dividend growth 2013 BALANCE SHEET  0 – 30% gearing through cycle  Balance sheet underpins investment  Capital employed grows steadily CFFO & capex outlook @$80-$100/BBL Brent and assumes improved US gas and Downstream environment from 2012
  • 45. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 45 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FOURTH QUARTER 2012 RESULTS AND STRATEGY UPDATE PETER VOSER CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
  • 46. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 46 SHELL ON TRACK FOR 2012-15 TARGETS GROWTH DELIVERY CAPITAL DISCIPLINE + TRACK RECORD LONGER TERM GROWTH PRIORITY ENGINES FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES RESOURCES PLAYS DEEP-WATER INTEGRATED GAS UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM
  • 47. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 47 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC Q&A
  • 48. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 48 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC BACK UP
  • 49. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 49 KEY PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION Deep-waterUpstream Engine Integrated Gas Resources plays Longer term
  • 50. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 50 STRONG PORTFOLIO OF PRE-FID UPSTREAM OPTIONS POTENTIAL 2014-2020 START-UPS Deep-water Upstream Engine Integrated Gas Resources plays Longer term
  • 51. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 51 PROJECT STATUS Construction time elapsed % PROJECT MANAGEMENT + PERFORMANCE Mars-B: TLP on transport to US Gulf0% 50% 100% MALIKAI FRAM TEMPA ROSSA SOUTHERN SWAMP WHEATSTONE FORKADOS YOKRI NWS GAS - GWF - PHASE A PRELUDE FLNG CLAIR PH2 SCHIEHALLION REDEVELOPMENT SABAH GAS KEBABANGAN (KBB) CARDAMOM GORGON LNG T1-3 PETAI MARS B, W. BOREAS & S.… BC-10 PHASE 2 GUMUSUT-KAKAP CORRIB MAJNOON FCP BONGA NW AOSP DEBOTTLENECKING NORTH RANKIN 2 SAS KASHAGAN PHASE 1 BAB THAMAMA G & BAB… 31-Dec-12
  • 52. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 52 Movements 2010 2011 2012 Organic1 reserves additions 1,653 1,545 1,047 Year average price effect -198 -235 -431 Production -1,242 -1,212 -1,234 Acquisition & divestment -85 -105 -74 Total subsidiaries and affiliates movements 1,370 1,205 542 Year end positions Total subsidiaries and affiliates reserves 14,273 14,266 13,573 Non-controlling interests 24 16 18 Net Shell reserves2 14,249 14,250 13,555 2010-2012 RESERVES SUMMARY 2010 2011 2012 2010-12 RRR Organic 133% 127% 85% 115% RRR Organic incl. price effects 117% 108% 50% 92% RRR Reported 110% 99% 44% 84% RESERVES IN MILLION BOE3 1 Excludes acquisitions, divestments and year-average price impact 2 Reserves attributable to Royal Dutch Shell shareholders 3 Based on 12-month average price