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Tuning up your Agile to manage down your Risk - Rowan Bunning - July 2014
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Tuning up your Agile to manage down your Risk - Rowan Bunning - July 2014

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Given that the "Waterfall" process model has been dominant in the IT industry for many decades, how many IT and project management professionals are aware that it's inventor warned the world in......

Given that the "Waterfall" process model has been dominant in the IT industry for many decades, how many IT and project management professionals are aware that it's inventor warned the world in 1970 that Waterfall is "risky and invites failure"?

From a risk management perspective, is waterfall ever an appropriate choice for complex IT initiatives given what we know now?

In this session we will outline how, as a risk management strategy, using the waterfall model for non-trivial systems development initiatives is systemically high risk as compared with the Iterative Incremental Development (IID) model that has been used in pockets of the IT industry since the late 1950's. Today, many organisations use the IID strategy under the umbrella term of 'Agile'. The majority of these employ Lean Product Development patterns that were first described in the Harvard Business Review in 1986 using a metaphor borrowed from the game of rugby i.e. 'Scrum'.

If you are not using a disciplined agile approach, are you facing more risk as you approach a high-stakes deadline than you need to?

The varied contexts that we work in come with varied types of risk. For a green fields date-driven release, the primary risk may be cost and schedule related. For teams designing a new product for an emerging market, the primary risks may be business risk. For teams doing innovative R&D, the primary risk may technical risk. For a young team in a new technical or business domain, the primary risk may be social risk. In this session, we will use real world examples of such varied challenges to illustrate how risk-tuned Agile helped us to manage risk effectively.

Whilst we will always have to deal with risk to create value, the good news is that there are now many powerful risk management techniques that can be overlaid on top of IID to tune your development process to the type of risk you face. The question is: which ones are most appropriate for the type of risk you are facing? In this workshop we outline a series of powerful risk management tools that tune an agile development process to effectively manage the type of risk that you face.

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  • 1. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Tuning up Agile to manage down your… With Rowan Bunning Agile Coach and Certified Scrum Trainer Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com
  • 2. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Outline 1. The R Word 2. Waterfallicies 3. Risk Categories 4. Agile Risk Management Strategies 5. Iterative Incremental Development (IID) 6. Potentially Shippable 7. Release Planning 8. Visual Risks Management 9. Velocity-based Forecasting 10. Lean Startup 11. Experiment Driven Development 12. Pairing 13. Questions / discussion
  • 3. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com The R word
  • 4. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com What is Risk? “Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on the projects objectives.” - Project Management Body of Knowledge
  • 5. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Risk Management “Risk Management's goal is to increase the impact and probability of positive risks and decrease them for negative risks.” - Project Management Body of Knowledge “Risk Management is project management for adults.” - Tom DeMarco & Timothy Lister
  • 6. You can’t eliminate risk youtube.com/watch?v=GfBLbo08-fQ
  • 7. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Waterfallicies
  • 8. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com How the relay race began... Dr Winston Royce, Managing the Development of Large Software Systems, 1970.
  • 9. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com What Royce said about this model “I believe in this concept, but the implementation described above is risky and invites failure.” Dr Winston Royce, Managing the Development of Large Software Systems, 1970.
  • 10. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Royce recommended Iteration
  • 11. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Walker Royce re his father “He [my father] was always a proponent of iterative, incremental, evolutionary development. His paper described the waterfall as the simplest description, but that it would not work for all but the most straightforward projects. The rest of his paper describes [iterative practices] within the context of the 60s/70s government- contracting models (a serious set of constraints).” Walker Royce (son of Winston Royce) His book…
  • 12. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Systemic problems with Waterfall This is far too late to start checking quality! Some of this will be wrong Some of this will be unnecessary
  • 13. And now for the news… youtube.com/watch?v=lAvCbWANeY0
  • 14. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Customs CMR
  • 15. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Risk Categories
  • 16. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Risk categories Are we developing the right thing? Can these people develop it? Will our solution work? Do we understand the cost & timing?
  • 17. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Agile Risk Management Strategies
  • 18. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Risk reduction using Scrum Risk of... Scrum Strategy Not pleasing the customer Customer sees product constantly. Customer on-site. Not completing all functionality Develop in priority order. Poor estimating and planning Small estimates tracked daily. Review and adjustment every iteration. Not resolving issues properly Active daily management. Bi-directional reporting. Not being able to complete the development cycle Delivery of working software every iteration. Team forced to confront issues early. Taking too much work and changing expectations Clear goal and scope each iteration. No change within iterations. Source: Schwaber, K., Beedle, M., Agile Software Development with Scrum, Prentice Hall, 2001.
  • 19. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Scrum & XP Feedback Loops Months Weeks Days Hours ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ _____ Release Review & Plan Sprint Review & Plan Acceptance Test Daily Scrum One Day Pair Negotiation Unit Test Minutes Code Pair Programming Seconds
  • 20. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Waterfall vs Agile success 0 25 50 75 100 Waterfall Agile Successful Challenged Failed “The agile process is the universal remedy for software development project failure. Software applications developed through the agile process have three times the success rate of the traditional waterfall method and a much lower percentage of time and cost overruns.” - The CHAOS Manifesto (p. 25), The Standish Group, 2012.
  • 21. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Iterative Incremental Development (IID)
  • 22. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Incremental development Design Code Integrate Test Fix etc. Time Deadline 🔎 Inspect Adapt Design Code Integrate Test Fix 🔎 Inspect Adapt 🔎 Inspect Adapt 🔎 Inspect Adapt 🔎 Inspect Adapt 🔎 Inspect Adapt 🔎 Inspect Adapt
  • 23. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Waterfall and risk impact Source: Craig Larman, Agile & Iterative Development, 2004.
  • 24. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com IID and risk impact Source: Craig Larman, Agile & Iterative Development, 2004.
  • 25. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Potentially Shippable
  • 26. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Sashimi - slices that are complete
  • 27. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Beware“Undone” work Stabilisation Planned Release Release delayed! Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Undone Reference: Ken Schwaber. UndoneUndone
  • 28. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Coded Depth of Done represents capability Analysed Designed Load tested Usability reviewed Planned Unit Tested Functionally tested Smoke Tested Acceptance tested Deployed Training material updated
  • 29. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Business Value 100 %BusinessValuedelivered 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 Month 2 Months 3 Months 4 Months 5 Months Agile with PSPI Waterfall
  • 30. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com %Uncertainty/Riskremaining 1 Month 2 Months 3 Months 4 Months 5 Months Uncertainty/Risk 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Waterfall Agile with PSPI With a Potentially Shippable Product at the end of every Sprint… Risk = Business Value not yet delivered
  • 31. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Release Planning
  • 32. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Risk first release strategy Growth of knowledge Strategy Reduce Risk Build out value Refine Approach Develop a simple system span of necessities Build out flexibility and safety Refine with comfort, performance and luxury Pay to learn Source: Jeff Patton www.agileproductdesign.com. ✄ Potential to ‘trim the tail’ Shine & gloss Business value
  • 33. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Do that and you’re likely to…
  • 34. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Multi-pass iteration on product Time (user experience flow) Purchasing Product Selection Product Discovery Fulfilment Necessity The walking skeleton more necessary less necessary Smallest set of minimalist features to be barely useable Second pass - some flesh on the bones Third pass Fourth pass Thanks to: Jeff Patton www.agileproductdesign.com.
  • 35. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Release early, release often Thanks to: Jeff Patton www.agileproductdesign.com. Time (user experience flow) Purchasing Product Selection Product Discovery Fulfilment Necessity more necessary less necessary Release: Beta Minimum Marketable Product (MMP) Release: 1.0
  • 36. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Collect these during Release Planning Risk discovery
  • 37. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Risk chart Likelihood Impact Exposure analysis
  • 38. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Visual Risk Management
  • 39. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Collaborative Risk Board Contingency Planning Mitigating Risks Strategy Evading Avoiding Containing Reference: Slinger, M., Broderick, S., The Software Project Manager’s Bridge to Agility, Addison Wesley, 2008. don’t do part of the project that entails the risk e.g. avoid platform upgrade take steps before the risk materialises to reduce the containment costs e.g. move feature to an earlier sprint set aside time and money to pay for the risk should it materialise e.g. plan for training on new tools bet on the risk not materialising e.g. accepting not having a dedicated team
  • 40. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Risk on the card wall To Do Stories To Do Tasks Work In Progress Done Stories Completed TasksImpeded Impediment 1/07/14 _/_/_ Risk Story
  • 41. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Risk story As a result of upgrading the database server, our application may stop working, which would lead to an outage. As a result of <definite cause>, <uncertain event> may occur, which would lead to <effect on objective(s)> Reference: Alan Moran, Agile Risk Management, Springer, 2013.
  • 42. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Velocity-based Forecasting
  • 43. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Velocity is a range Source: Mike Cohn. 0 9.5 19 28.5 38 47.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Mean (Best 3) = 18 Mean (Last 8) = 16 Mean (Worst 3) = 14 Sprint 20 15 10 5 0
  • 44. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Forecasting number of sprints Source: Mark Summers, Redefining the traditional view of risk, Munich Scrum Gathering, October 2009.
  • 45. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Relative probability by sprint Source: Mark Summers, Redefining the traditional view of risk, Munich Scrum Gathering, October 2009.
  • 46. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Presenting cumulative probability $ $ $ $ Source: Mark Summers, Redefining the traditional view of risk, Munich Scrum Gathering, October 2009.
  • 47. Understanding the Burndown chart youtube.com/watch?v=HV76WzqpSI0
  • 48. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Burndown chart Work remaining Time Velocity is a trend of work over time that emerges
  • 49. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Seeing Risk in the Sprint 0 22.5 45 67.5 90 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Time Work remaining Risk Day A B C D E F G
  • 50. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Fixed-scope scenario Time Features I want this much. When can I get it? More Best case Worst case Impossible ProbableUncertain Less LongerShorter
  • 51. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Enhanced Release Burndown with variable Scope Reference: mountaingoatsoftware.com/agile/scrum/release-burndown/alternative Work remaining Time Sprint 1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Velocity Range Revised end point S8 Original Release Forecast Revised Release Forecast S7S6 Additional items added {
  • 52. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Fixed-date scenario Time We need it on this date. How much can we have by then? Best case Worst case Impossible Probable Uncertain Less More
  • 53. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Projecting Risk on Product Backlog Reference: mountaingoatsoftware.com/agile/scrum/release-burndown/alternative Fixed date Work remaining Time Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 Reporting Affiliates Will have Won’t have Might Have Reviews Sprint 5 Velocity Range Catalogue Cart Checkout ✓ ✓ ✓ Fulfilment
  • 54. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Release later with more? or Release sooner with less?
  • 55. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Lean Startup
  • 56. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com "Scrum’s Uncertainty Principle is: Customers don’t know what they want until they see it, and they always reserve the right to change their mind." - Jeff Sutherland, Emergence of Essential Systems
  • 57. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Lean Startup model
  • 58. According to the Lean Startup definition of MVP, this Dropbox video itself was an MVP youtube.com/watch?v=7QmCUDHpNzE
  • 59. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Experiment Driven Development
  • 60. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com
  • 61. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com PotentialReward Potential Risk
  • 62. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Experiment Driven Development model Sketched during the session Contact Rowan for more information
  • 63. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Pairing
  • 64. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com The bus factor is the total number of key developers who would need to be incapacitated to send the project into such disarray that it would not be able to proceed. - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bus_factor
  • 65. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Amplify Learning through Pairing Photo: Calqui
  • 66. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com References Tom DeMarco, Timothy Lister Eric Ries Michele Sliger, Stacia Broderick
  • 67. © 2014 Scrum WithStyle scrumwithstyle.com Regional Scrum Gathering® Australia 20 scrum.com.au Henrik Kniberg (Sweden) Agile Coach at Spotify Nick Muldoon (USA) Agile Coach at Twitter Tickets $275 $225 for Scrum Alliance Members Harvey Wheaton (U.K.) Chairman of the Scrum Alliance Board of Directors October 21-22 - Surry Hills, Sydney