Nsri2012.trf.sem.hamid jafari polio update nov 2012

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Nsri2012.trf.sem.hamid jafari polio update nov 2012

  1. 1. Polio  in  the     World  Today  Rotary  Founda3on  Seminar  North  Sea  Rotary  Ins3tute   9  November,  2012  
  2. 2. Polio    Eradica3on
  3. 3. Polio-­‐paralyzed  Children,  1988-­‐2011   Type  2  polio   India  stops   eradicated   all  polio  
  4. 4. World  Health  Assembly    "DECLARES  polio  eradica3on  a  programma3c  emergency  for  global  public  health."   25  May  2012  
  5. 5. Afghanistan   Pakistan   Nigeria  
  6. 6. 9  Nov  2011   9  Nov  2012  
  7. 7. UN  General  Assembly  Special  Event  on  Polio,  September  2012   Afghanistan   Bill  Gates   Rotary   IDB   UNICEF   Pakistan   Nigeria   WHO   CDC  
  8. 8. Status  of  Program  Accountability  Frameworks   Nigeria Pakistan Afghanistan Head of State Oversight +++ +++ ++Polio Control Rooms (national, state) ++ ++ + District/LGA Accountability ++ ++ + Partner Surge Optimization ++ ++ +
  9. 9. WHO  &  UNICEF  Surge  N=1800 N=2100 N=51 N=205675%  of  human  resource  surge     N=301 N=1056 in  place  
  10. 10. Children  with  polio   last  4  months,  Nigeria   more  cases  than  2011  
  11. 11. Nigeria:  changing  the  basics   New  microplan   New  monitoring  &  accountability  linked   to  house-­‐based  microplans  
  12. 12. Children  with  polio   Afghanistan/Pakistan   substan=al  reduc=on   less  cases  than  2011   more  cases  than  2011   Inaccessible children in 13 high-risk districts, Jan-Oct 2012 100.000 75.000 50.000 25.000 0 Jan Jun Jul Sep Oct
  13. 13. Afghanistan  
  14. 14. Pakistan:  tackling  insecurity   Bara, Khyber Agency Target  popula=on:                   Khyber: 25,000 children 33  million  children   accessed 3x in Sept 2012 (after 3 yrs) •  3  areas  of  limited  access   N&S Waziristan: ban since July 260,000 children •  ~  350,000  children   Gadap, Karachi: •  remote  programming,   60,000 children windows  of  opportunity,   SIADs,  etc.  
  15. 15. Sharing  Best  PracSces  from  India  •  Delega=ons  from  Nigeria,   Pakistan,  Afghanistan    •  Mul=ple  visits  from  India  •  15  Indian  polio  staff  in   Nigeria  x  2  missions  •  Best  prac=ces  included  in   na=onal  emergency  plans  
  16. 16. Last  type  2  wild  poliovirus:  1999   however…..  
  17. 17. circulaSng  Vaccine-­‐Derived  Poliovirus  Outbreaks  (cVDPVs)  last  6  months   Type  1  (0  cases)   Type  2  (15  cases)   Type  3  (2  cases)  
  18. 18. Polio  EradicaSon  &  Endgame  Plan   Last  wild  polio  case   Wild  virus  cer=fica=on   2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-25 Implement Eradica3on   Emergency Action tOPV-­‐bOPV   Plans switch   Address pre-requisites, Build RI, introduce IPV, Endgame     switch tOPV:bOPV, develop legacy plan Stop bOPV; transition key staff, Legacy     infrastructure & systems
  19. 19. Headline  Endgame  Costs   WHO/UNICEF                     Gates                       2013  -­‐  18   2013  -­‐  18   Total  costs     $6.3B   $6.9B   with  Gov  India   Total  costs  w/o   $5.2B   $5.5B   Gov  of  India  Within  20  years  a_er  the  last  case,  $50  billion  saved   mostly  in  developing  countries  
  20. 20. Immediate  Priori3es  
  21. 21. OpSmize  operaSons  for  a   2013  low  season  push  
  22. 22. Close  the  financing  gap,  2012-­‐13   OPV    campaigns  were   cancelled  in  >25  high   risk  countries  due   to  insufficient  funds.   Current  Gap:    US$  700  m   Firm  Prospects:  US$  360  m   Best  Case  Gap:  US$  340  m  
  23. 23. Summary  
  24. 24. •  Strongest  ever  poli=cal  commitment  •  Fastest  rate  of  coverage  improvements  in  history  •  Highest  deployments  ever  by  core  partners  •  Lowest  polio  cases  &  infected  areas  in  history  
  25. 25. Children  paralyzed  by  polio,  last  4   months  1  Nov  2012  

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