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World in Transition:
towards a green era

Jan Rotmans
10 November 2012

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  1. 1. World in Transition:towards a green era Jan Rotmans 10 November 2012 www.twitter.com/janrotmans
  2. 2. Society in Transition
  3. 3. We don’t live in an era of change but in a change of eras
  4. 4. Shifting Panels science technologypolitics governance governmenteconomy climate extreme events nature culture
  5. 5. Tipping Pointperiod in which things change fundamentallyis rare in history, for example: end of 19th centurymodernisation basis was laid for the Netherlandseducation, voting right, health care, social build-up
  6. 6. Tipping Pointmacro-level crises financial crisis, energy-, resources-, climate crisismeso-level political regime is ‘cracking’ confidence crisis, lack of leadershipmicro-level powerful undercurrent from bottom-up citizens & organisations organising themselves
  7. 7. What is changing?paradigm from reductionistic to holisticorganizing from central to decentralsteering from ‘top-down’ to ‘bottom-up’
  8. 8. Building up of sustainable society Transition to a sustainable society Predevelopment phase Through development phase 25 years 25 years Old Paradigm New Paradigm Tipping point Old Institutions New Institutions Old Steering New Steering Time We are here
  9. 9. Concatenation of Crisestill 2020: financial-economic crisisafter 2020: ecological crises resources energy climate
  10. 10. Systems Crisis Relief & Blessingperiod of relative chaos and disorderneeded to break the system’s freezing thé chance for system innovation
  11. 11. Creeping Revolutioncreative, innovative youngsters break through systemcommercial multinationals of the marketbureaucratic state organisationsmovement from bottom-up from passion & inspiration glocalisation
  12. 12. Overall society is tipping from:vertical to horizontalcentral to decentralizedtop-down to bottom-up
  13. 13. Global Green Economy unfolding
  14. 14. Green Economy1. clean and safe clean production of goods, materials and energy2. circular waste is resource for new products: closing loops3. bio-based green resources as basis: plants and rest products
  15. 15. Transition to a Green Economy From To CO2-based CO2-free linear closed cycles fossil fuels green resources recyclen upcyclen ownership trading / hiring
  16. 16. Third Industrial Revolution1st Industrial Revolution coal, steam engine2th Industrial Revolution oil, combustion engine3th Industrial Revolution sustainable energy, renewable resources
  17. 17. Clean Tech Industry clean energy clean transport clean water technology clean waste disposal clean chemistry
  18. 18. Green Economy: beyond technologyclean tech industry is major part of green economy but green economy involves more - sustainable life style - new institutions - cultural change
  19. 19. Green Economy emergingglobal economy arises around clean tech industryfastest growing industry in the world2011: 300 billion dollar (30% growth compared to 2010) China 55 billion Germany 42 billion United States 35 billion Italy 17 billion Netherlands 2 billion
  20. 20. Clean Energy Technology growth rates per country
  21. 21. Green Economy = Job Generatorcurrent worldwide sales of sustainability sector is 1400 billion $sales doubles the coming 5-10 year and yields ca. 60 million‘green’ jobs: sustainable energy, chemistry, waste recyclingwater management, agriculture, servicessustainable energy: 20 million new jobssustainable biomass: 15 million new jobssustainable construction: 10 million new jobs UN-Report 1 June, 2012
  22. 22. Green Economy in Europegreen economy is of crucial importance for Europe 22 millions Europeans involved in potence by now: 1-3% of total employment in 2020: 5-10% of total employmentGermany is absolute frontrunner German national bank: 100 billion for sustainable energyUK is developing well 5% growth in 2011, 1 million people involved, 152 billion euro
  23. 23. Clean Tech Global Production [% EUR/BNP] National public expenses R&D [% EUR/BNP] (bron WNF)
  24. 24. Relative Clean Tech value added weighted by GDP 2010 [% EUR] (source WNF)
  25. 25. Global Green Economy Transition not driven by scarcity, climate, environment but driven by geo-political forces power shifts price developments
  26. 26. Global Economic Power Shift Obama “ The country that will dominate the clean tech economy will be the country that will dominate the world economy and America needs to be that country ”
  27. 27. “every company that doesn’t invest in sustainability will not exist anymore in 15 years from now” Paul Polman, CEO Unilever
  28. 28. Vision on a Sustainable Netherlands in 2050
  29. 29. Euregio Duurzaam Energie netwerk
  30. 30. Zonne energie in de Sahara
  31. 31. Zonne energie in de weilanden
  32. 32. Dutch Research InstituteFor Transitions
  33. 33. Drijvend wonen
  34. 34. Floating City living / working units energy: decentral heat/cold storage water recreationmobility:floating ecology:highway, w wetlandsater taxi technology: floating foundation Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
  35. 35. Stichting Urgenda
  36. 36. Stichting Urgenda
  37. 37. Stichting Urgenda
  38. 38. Stalling 2025Opladen in stalling [elektrische fiets, scooter, segway, etc] | Duurzame energie op dakvlakken
  39. 39. McDonalds Biologisch – McFast + McSlow
  40. 40. Conclusionsworld is in transition and is at a tipping pointnext decades will be characterized by crises:concatenation of crises will evoke outburst of innovationgreen economy is emerging, fastest growing industryThe Netherlands will be ‘living lab’ for radical innovation