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Hunger and food security in the 21st century

Hunger and food security in the 21st century

Frank Rijsberman, CEO CGIAR Consortium, November 2, 2012

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  • Get slide or two with key messages of the 2012 report
  • Immediate response of farmers to price increases is to plow under more land – and of some food importing countries to acquire increased access to food through foreign direct investment. Not good if there are no land rights, or land market, and poor do not benefit.Instead we should limit footprint and focus on sustainable intensification – can that be done?
  • Was done at large scale once before – Asia, Green revolution – can it be done again?
  • ppt picture showing highly salt tolerance of the brackish water wild Oryza species (O. coarctata), F1 and BC1 progenies developed from a cross between IR56 (salt sensitive) and O. coarctata by embryo rescue. IR56 plant at the reproductive stage is dead under salt stress but O. coarctata, F1 and BC1 plants grow well under salt stress with high EC of 24 which is equivalent to 13.5g of NaCl/liter of water.
  • On top of that there is evidence that yields are stagnating.
  • Food security at risk. Climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
  • Consortium of 15 International Agricultural Research Centers that operate in over 150 locations world wide. Expenditures: Subsaharan 47%, Asia 34%,Lamerica 12% CWANA (Central and West Asia and North Africa) 8%,Formed in 2010 as part of reform of the CGIAR, 2011 celebrating 40 years, some centers 50.Consortium Office established in Montpellier, France in March 2011.Primary organization with a global public mandate and funding for scientific research to find solutions eradicating poverty and hunger at global scale.
  • Still, there is hope for large increases – intensification – if we can close yield gaps (not suggesting this is easy) – CGIAR not just focusing on increasing the physical max potential (though we do as well) – but also on raising 4 to higher (in Asia) and raising 2 in Africa – also “breeding” e.g. for abiotic stresses or problem soils, as well as farming system research, access to markets etc.
  • Similarly for water – results of CPWF
  • Costs of sequencing dropping even faster than Moore’s law.
  • Our new portfolio:Still: breeding / improved germplasmNRMFarming systems + policies / markets / value chainsNutrition and health
  • Thisslide is on Harvest Plus activities and how all crop development goals are being met. Country delivery programs have started with clear plans for delivery to 40 million people by 2018.
  • CCAFS has various activities with the World Climate Research Program. These kinds of collaborations are crucial if we are to bring the agricultural and climate science communities together. One of our activities is called farms of the future: the idea is to view tomorrows farms today!This is a sophisticated tool derived from climate change models. If you come from a location, e.g. Durban, you can click on the map on Durban and it will tell you where you can go to view what the Durban climate may look like in 2030. In this case you could go to Argentina to view your 2030 climate. In the next slide
  • …….you can see one of the uses of this tool. This is Nepal, where farmers from one location have gone to another site to “view their 2030 climate”. In this case they went to three different localities to a see a range of the possible futures.The information and knowledge they gained from farmer to farmer exchange is then used in their adaptation planning and selecting of priority actions.
  • How we have now decided to invest in genebanks – how we have to some extent re-discovered the genebanks, now that we can characterize what’s in them so much better, through various molecular biology approachesThis is a comprehensive 5-year program for the management, as well as the secure and sustainable funding, of the collections of plant genetic resources held by 11 members of the CGIAR Consortium. It is a partnership between the members of CGIAR Consortium and the Global Crop Diversity Trust.The objective is to conserve the diversity of plant genetic resources in CGIAR-held collections and to make this diversity available to breeders and researchers in a manner that meets high international scientific standards, is cost efficient, is secure, reliable and sustainable over the long-term and is supportive of and consistent with the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture.Highlights include:Fulfilling obligationsFaithful adherence to international legal obligations under the TreatyGlobal partnerships and service provisionMeeting standardsArticulated principles and goals guiding activities and funding allocationsImplementation of high international standards of conservation and Quality Management Systems across the CentersEnsuring accountability and increasing cost-efficiencyDedicated attention to efficiency and cost saving opportunitiesMechanisms for addressing larger cross-Center scientific and budgeting issuesIndependent monitoring and oversight linked with financingControls and checks over expendituresImproving long-term sustainability5-Year funding commitment that facilitates proper long-term managementCommitment to phase out annual funding by building the Trust’s endowment to ensure true sustainabilityA significant leadership role for the Global Crop Diversity TrustNurturing collaboration and communicationForum for Center cooperation and for planning with NARSNo micro-management of genebanks; minimal transaction costsPlanning and review at a global level for individual crops
  • For non-CGIAR this is the global distribution (inside or outside the country) – while for the cg, cg-db is the global distribution outside cgiarThe first column are the nbr of samples distributed within the cg centers to breeders. (this gives an idea of the high level of use of the collections by cg breeders).
  • increases.With the reforms we have implemented in CGIAR - in our structure, our accountability, our research program, and our governance - we have also seen promises of greater investment. Our expectation is to see a two-fold increase by 2015, compared to the level of funding in 2008, when we started the CGIAR reform process.

Nsri2012.institute.rijsberman Nsri2012.institute.rijsberman Presentation Transcript

  • Hunger and food security in the 21st centuryFrank Rijsberman, CEO CGIAR Consortium, November 2, 2012
  • Overview• Food Security: the greatest challenge facing humanity in coming decades• Sustainable intensification: growing more food with less land and water• Promising science• CGIAR results and impacts
  • Food Insecurity and UndernutritionRemain Persistent: 850M hungry people Prevalence of Micronutrient 2011 Global Hunger Index Deficiencies • • • • • • 20 countries have alarming or extremely alarming levels of hunger
  • Food Price Spikes put Food Security back on the agenda Inflation-adjusted prices of maize, wheat, rice, soybeans, and oil 1990–2011 Source: IFPRI
  • Land Grab in Africa: 30 million ha BIDCO acquires 26,500 hectares for a palm oil plantation in Uganda, displacing thousands of smallholder farmers Credit: FoEI / ATI - Jason Taylor
  • Green Revolution: Intensification in Asia Decades of cheap & plentiful food Development of semi-dwarf, high-yield, and disease-resistant varieties, 1960s-70s Increased fertilizer use Massive investment in irrigation CIMMYT
  • Transfer of natural salt tolerance from Oryza coarctata a wild species that grows well in brackish water 15 years of crossing produced 1 viable plant! F1 BC1 IR56 IR56 O. IR56 x O. (No Salt) (EC 24 ) coarctata IR56 x O. coarctata//IR56 coarctata (EC 24) (EC 24) (EC 24)
  • Global Cereal Yield Trends, 1966-2009 2009 5 corn: 1.3% Corn yieldGrain yield (t ha ) -1 -1 slope = 64 kg ha y-1 4 1966 (~1 bu ac-1 y-1) rice: 1.3% Rice yield -1 -1 slope = 53 kg ha y 3 corn: 2.8% wheat: 1.4% Wheat yield rice: 2.9% 2 -1 -1 slope = 40 kg ha y wheat: 2.9% 1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Source: FAOSTAT Year
  • Plateau in Yields of Major Grains 8 8 12 USA-irrigated Rice Wheat MaizeGrain yield (t ha ) 10-1 6 R.Korea 6 Northwest Europe China 8 USA-rainfed 4 Indonesia 4 China 6 4 China 2 India 2 India 2 Brazil 0 0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Year Year Stagnating yields for: • rice in Korea, Japan, California and China • wheat in northwest Europe, Great Plains USA • maize in China, France, Italy and irrigated maize in the USA
  • For food prices to remain constant, annual yield gains would have to increase • From 1.6% to 2.4% for maize • From 0.9% to 1.5% for rice • From 1.1% to 2.3% for wheat • On essentially the same land area, with less water, nutrients, fossil Climat e fuel, labor and as climates change change Wat er, nut rient & energy scarcit y Projected demand by 2050 (FAO) Diseases World-wide average yield Linear extrapolations• First concerns: late 1990s of current trends (t ons ha-1 )• The more we delay Potential effect investments, the steeper the of climate- change-induced challenge heat stress on today’s cultivars (intermediate Agronomy Breeding CO2 emission scenario) Year
  • Our Ability to Grow Food is at risk
  • Coffee in ColumbiaFrom an environmental point of view a 2 °C increase equals a difference of 440 masl and major shifts of crops to new areas
  • Humanity’s Greatest Challenge Producing 70% more food by 2050, UN, K.Park without destroying the environment CIAT, N.Palmer CIAT, N.Palmer CIAT, N.Palmer
  • Sustainable Intensification • 75% from land already in use • By small-scale farmers, majority women • Where the food is consumed • In a climate smart way CIAT, N.Palmer
  • CGIAR Consortium A strategic partnership dedicated to advancing science to address the central development challenges of our time: 4 Objectives: • Reducing rural poverty • Improving food security . • Improving nutrition and health • Sustainably managing natural resources
  • CGIAR Centers and Locations2012: $850M, 8900 staff, 50 countries
  • Crop yield gap - Rice• IRRI, ideal conditions 3 crops of 7 t/ha: 21t/ha/yr• Philippines, irrigated: 2 crops of 4 t/ha: 8 t/ha/yr• Africa, upland rice: 1 crop of 2 t/ha 2 t/ha/yr
  • Water Productivity remains very low over most areasWP (estimated potential - typically 1-2 kg/m3)WP (estimated actual - typically 0.1-0.5 kg/m3) Yellow River Indus Ganges Mekong Nile Limpopo Volta Niger
  • What is the science potential ?• Life Science Revolution – molecular biology • Molecular markers for marker aided selection • Characterizing genetic diversity • Creating new gene pools• IT revolution – crop management, precision agriculture • Satellite information to predict crop growth • Cheap sensors from soil moisture to weather • Mobile phones for extension and market info• Holistic approach – ecological intensification • Landscape approach • Farming systems and livelihood strategies • Access to markets, value chains, nutrition, food safety
  • DNA Sequencing Costs Plummeting:Life sciences more dynamic than IT 10-5 human hair Nanopore Technology Will Lower Costs Even More
  • CGIAR Research Agenda
  • CGIAR Research Program on Rice• 120 million rice farmers feed 3.5 billion people• 1 billion people extremely poor and 650 million hungry depend on rice – more coming… ‘000 milled tonnes No slowdown in global rice consumption Rice fastest growing food commodity in SSA
  • => Increase rice production that is affordable to poorand profitable to farmers (and value chain)But… future: less and more expensive resources,more hostile environment (climate change) Global challenge and global threats concerted global action CRP Rice
  • Science partnerships Development partnershipsTheme 1 ----- Theme 2, 3,4 -------------------------- Theme 5 Theme 6 SRFGRiSP Increased Food Security nutritious rice production Products Products Nutrition and Genes, varieties, locally adopted by health management technologies, info adapted and farmers, value rmation promoted by chain Stable and gateway, models, public, NGO, actors, policy affordable Rural Poverty data, tools, capac and private makers, other price of rice ity, etc sector stakeholders Increased Sustainability resource use efficiency Products Intermediate Development Outcomes Impact Farmers: 1000s 10.000s 100.000s millions Timeline
  • Product: Submergence-tolerant rice Swarna-Sub1 17 d submergence 11 million ha flood prone> 25 years of ‘discovery science’: gene, markers,…
  • Farmers’ submergence tolerant landraces collected; FR13A Gene bank screened; FR13A identified Semi-dwarf & submergence tol. combined First high-yielding dwarf varieties1950 1978 1990 2000 2010 1995: Sub1 mapped to Chr. 9 Fine mapping & marker development initiated 2002: Swarna crossed with IR49830-7 (Sub1) 2006: Sub1-A gene conferring submergence tolerance 2006: Swarna-Sub1 developed by marker assisted backcrossing 2008: Sub1-A mode of action: inhibit response to GA 2009: Swarna-Sub1 released in Indian, Indonesia, IR64- Sub1 in Indonesia, Philippines 2010: Two Sub1 varieties released in Bangladesh
  • Swarna-Sub1 Timeline inin India and B’Desh + NFSM, State 100 public & >130 public & + Govs., Seed Co NARES NARES NGOs, FOs, S private private (P&Pv), NGOs,Partners (2) (8) eed Co (P) sector sectors IPs (54) (22) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Activities Release Dissemination, adoption, tacking Evaluation, De (June), Seed & impact assessment Multiplication Evaluation monstration Mult. (BS +TL), Demonstr.Seed Breeding status Africa 2011: sub1 works in Seed Mult (boro)amount elite African rice germplasmBS: 170 t BS/FS/CS/ BS/FS/ 2 kg 100 kg 3,000 kg 15 tons TL: 450 t TL,10,000 t CS/TL,  WITA 4 x Swarna sub1 FS : > 500 BC2F1 (+FS) 40000 t (+FS)No. of  NERICA L-19 x IR64 sub1 F1Farmers ~ 700 ~5,000 >100,000 1.3 mil 4.0 mil  FARO 57 x Swarna sub1 BC1F1 October 2012: urgent request from Nigerian Swarna-Sub1 reached about 3 million farmers Minister of Agriculture for submergence in India and tolerant rice 0.5 million in Bangladesh by 2012
  • New Products: “2 in 1” Submergence + salinity tolerance 12 million ha salt affected10 days submerged Sub1 only SalTol+ Sub1in saline water
  • A4NHHow Can Agriculture Improve Nutrition & Health? • Improve nutrition quality and food safety in value chains for nutrient-rich foods • Via biofortified staple crops—5 biofortified crops have been released since 2007; approx. 4 million households will be growing those crops by end of 2015 • Recent releases: – Vitamin A cassava released in December 2011 – Vitamin A maize released in 2012 in Nigeria and Zambia – Iron beans released in Rwanda in 2012 – Iron pearl millet commercialized in India in 2012 by private company • Via diet diversity • Through linking agriculture with nutrition and health programs, policies, and investments
  • A4NH Micronutrient Crops Cassava Pearl Millet Provitamin A Iron (Zinc) DR Congo, Nigeria India 2011 2012 Beans Rice Iron (Zinc) Zinc DR Congo, Rwanda Bangladesh, India 2012 2013 Maize Wheat Provitamin A Zinc Zambia India, Pakistan 2012 20132014-2018 Delivery-at-scale: 40 million people from 8 target countries
  • CGIAR Research Program Climate ChangeTechnologies, practices, partnerships, and policies for: Integration for Decision Making Adaptation Adaptation Pro-poor Linking Knowledge to through Climate with Action Progressive Managing Change Assembling Data and Climate Climate Mitigation Tools for Analysis and Change Risk Planning Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis Global engagement and synthesis
  • Farms of the Future With World Climate Research Programhttp://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues/
  • Farms of the Future Journey to Beora’s Plausible FuturesBlog story: http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climate-conversations/finding-the-future-of-beora/
  • Congo Basin: Africa’s last rainforests Success Story: Capacity building Increased focus among partners on raising capacity in forestry sector Highlight: Survey in 2005 found less than 10 active researchers in DRC – a country that represent 60% of the Congo Basin’s forests. Project at the University of Kisangani: 53 MSc students trained (22 about to start); 6 PhDs completed & 13 PhDs ongoing. Separate project in Congo Basin on climate change adaptation trained 40 MSc students
  • CGIAR Genebanks Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationThe genetic diversity treasure chest
  • Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation International collections
  • Genebank Samples Distributed per Year Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationSource: Collections online databases, publications, and personal communications between Trust and Genebank Managers, 2008,-2010
  • ACIAR Impact Assessment of CGIAR • Australian ACIAR 2011 impact assessment of IRRI’s rice breeding in Vietnam, Indonesia, Philipp ines • Benefits: $1.46 billion per year from 1985 - 2009
  • Upswing in CGIAR Investment 1,100 CGIAR Total Funding Trends Nominal and in 1972 dollars 1,000 1,000 900 855 800 766 700 725 600US$ million 500 400 300 200 1972 dollars, 121 100 20 0 Actual, Nominal 1972 dollars Target _____ projected, nominal
  • Conclusions• Food Security: the greatest challenge facing humanity in coming decades• Revitalizing agriculture after decades of neglect• Focus: hunger, poverty, malnutrition, environment• Science and technology driven innovation is key• Investment in research through CGIAR and partners is critical – investors doubling $$ in 5 years to $1Bn
  • THANK YOU