Issue12.5

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  • 1. Ross Naylor +48 (22) 389 65 70 (w) +48 512 275 706 (m) ul. Królewska 27 lok 411 Warszawa 00-060 Poland.Whats this?Its not a proper ezine per se, just some of the things that have caught my attention in the pastweek or so.Scattered ThoughtsIn a recent survey of major US companies, 198 of them raised their profit estimates and 130 cutthem. This is the biggest gap in favor of the "positives" since Bloomberg started tracking the datain 1999.Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has said he is determined to make Canada the firstG-8 country to balance their budg et by 2015. Balancin g the budget eh? What a novel idea.Thats sure to get him thrown out of the finance ministers guild. It should be good for theCanadian currency though.At the end of November, survey results from the Munich-based IFO institute, showed thatbusiness confidence in Germany had jumped to its highest point since the survey started afterGerman reunification in. You would expect that a weaker Euro would boost confidence further, atleast amongst exporters.Polish industry has seen its best numbers since 2004. Analysts were originally expectingthe main industrial index (HSBC Polish Manufacturing PMI) to drop in November, but they
  • 2. were pleasantly surprised however when it jumped to 55.9. The newest numbers suggestthe index is enjoying increased strength.Of Wal-Marts 6,000 suppliers, 5,000 are from ChinaA forecast suggested that UK property prices would fall by 10% next year, exceedinggovernment forecasts of a 3.1% drop. They expect one of the big drivers to be publicsector job losses.The cost of attending one of the state universities in California had already increased by 32% thisyear, before they announced another 8% increase in tuition fees recently. This puts inflation inthat sector at 40% based on tuition alone and doesnt factor in the rising costs of gas, rent(exceptionally high due to the increased demand caused by foreclosures), food, textbooks, etc.One way to think about the Chinese economy is b y comparing it to the bus in the movieSpeed with Keanu Reeves and Dennis Hopper. In the movie, a bus was wired withexplosives that would blow up if the buss speed d ropped below 50 miles an hour.China is similar, if their GDP growth falls bellow a certain level, things are likely to gohorribly wrong.There is a good video here which helps to illustrate the problem that the Chinesegovernment faces in the maintaining of balance between sustainable economic growthand providing sufficient employment for the masses in order to avoid civil unrest.Finally, a lot of the data out recently has been pretty positive. It makes me think of a line from achildhood cartoon - "Its all gone quiet." said Roobarb. "Too quiet." said Custard.As alwaysThanks for reading. I know the demands on your t ime are many and pressing.DisclaimerThe views expressed here are my own. They are not necessarily shared by AES International. They are subject tochange at any time based on market and other conditions. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase orsale of any security and should not be construed as such. References to specific securities are for illustrative orinformational purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations topurchase or sell such securities.
  • 3. Call me: +48 (22) 389 65 70 (w) +48 512 275 706 (m)To disallow Ross Naylor from sending you email with this service, click here.