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The Future of Global Financial Services - Vision 2020 Mumbai September 2008

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Presentation by Ross Dawson at the Vision 2020 - Financial Services Sector conference, run by NDTV Convergence and Wipro, held in Mumbai on 12 September 2020

Presentation by Ross Dawson at the Vision 2020 - Financial Services Sector conference, run by NDTV Convergence and Wipro, held in Mumbai on 12 September 2020

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance

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  • 1. Creating the Future of Global Financial Services Ross Dawson Chairman, Future Exploration Network Author, Living Networks and Developing Knowledge-Based Client Relationships
  • 2.  
  • 3. Risk Relationships
  • 4.
    • Finite players play within boundaries
    Infinite players play with boundaries - James Carse
  • 5. Critical uncertainties Driving forces Implications Scenarios for financial services Opportunities Scenario thinking
  • 6. Critical uncertainties Driving forces Implications Scenarios for financial services Opportunities Scenario thinking
  • 7. Scenario thinking Source: Shell Global Scenarios to 2025
  • 8. Forecasting and scenarios
  • 9. Thinking about the future of drilling Source: Global Business Network & Peter Schwartz
  • 10. Life is full of surprises Source: Global Business Network & Peter Schwartz
  • 11. Networks are based on standards Senior executive interviews Financial services Disruptions-trends -uncertainties Develop preliminary strategic frameworks Explore past, present and future Workshop preparation Scenario Project - Process Map Catalysts for strategic conversation Develop scenario agenda Drivers of alternative futures Preliminary scenario frameworks Scenario team develops scenarios Application in divisional strategy process Group strategy implications Scenario Book Future Vision Workshop Ongoing annual group and divisional scenario-based strategy process Growth and success Scenario thinking Strategic capabilities Responsiveness
  • 12. Critical uncertainties Driving forces Implications Scenarios for financial services Opportunities Scenario thinking
  • 13. Driving forces
    • Economic shift
    • Demographic shift
    • Greater expectations
    • Commoditization
    • Connectivity
    • Integration
    • Modularization
    • New payment mechanisms
    • New capital markets
    • Value of relationships
  • 14. BRICs are overtaking Source: Goldman Sachs
  • 15. Demographics is destiny
  • 16. We expect more
  • 17. Prices are being driven down Source: UK Office of National Statistics
  • 18. Connected to financial advice
  • 19. Integrated information flows
  • 20. The modular economy
  • 21. New payment mechanisms
  • 22. New layers for capital markets
  • 23. Relationships matter
  • 24. Driving forces
    • Economic shift
    • Demographic shift
    • Greater expectations
    • Commoditization
    • Connectivity
    • Integration
    • Modularization
    • New payment mechanisms
    • New capital markets
    • Value of relationships
  • 25. Critical uncertainties Driving forces Implications Scenarios for financial services Opportunities Scenario thinking
  • 26. Critical uncertainties
    • Globalization
    • National stability
    • Regulation
    • Privacy
    • Volatility
    • Industry structure
    • New entrants
    • Currencies
    • IT Security
    • Climate change
  • 27. Is globalization inevitable?
  • 28. The integrity of nations
  • 29. Regulation drives industries and economies
  • 30. Privacy, service, and pricing
  • 31. Will complexity drive volatility?
  • 32. Industry consolidation
  • 33. Banks get new competitors
  • 34. How many currencies?
  • 35. Will IT systems be secure?
  • 36. The impact of climate change
  • 37. Critical uncertainties
    • Globalization
    • National stability
    • Regulation
    • Privacy
    • Volatility
    • Industry structure
    • New entrants
    • Currencies
    • IT Security
    • Climate change
  • 38. Critical uncertainties Driving forces Implications Scenarios for financial services Opportunities Scenario thinking
  • 39. Key dimensions
    • Aggregation :
      • Fragmentation to Consolidation
    • Technology uptake :
      • Traditional to Transformational
  • 40. Scenario Framework: Global Financial Services in 2020 Consolidation Fragmentation Transformational Traditional New frontier Mega Services Agent economy Barriers Rising AGGREGATION TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE
  • 41. New frontier Mega Services Agent economy Barriers Rising AGGREGATION TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE
  • 42. New Frontier
    • Strong global growth and availability of capital
    • Deregulation and international cooperation
    • India flourishes
    • Google, eBay, and telecoms firms become major financial players
    • Margin pressure across industry
    • Rise of mobile payments and e-cash
    • Shift away from branches
    • Intensely customized service to all tiers of clients
  • 43. New frontier Mega Services Agent economy Barriers Rising AGGREGATION TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE
  • 44. Barriers Rising
    • Rise of protectionism
    • China splinters
    • Euro breaks up
    • Wealth disparities rise
    • Investors demand focus
    • Banks specialize/ global monolines
    • Proliferation of intermediaries
    • High margins for successful players
    • Terrorism impacts financial markets and insurance
  • 45. New frontier Mega Services Agent economy Barriers Rising AGGREGATION TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE
  • 46. Agent Economy
    • Fluid global economy
    • Highly modular outsourcing across borders
    • Governments lose control/ consumers gain control
    • Consumers and business shift wholesale to online
    • Agents seek best price for everything/ customer loyalty nil
    • Constant product innovation
    • Markets are volatile
    • Customer service and call centers are automated
  • 47. New frontier Mega Services Agent economy Barriers Rising AGGREGATION TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE
  • 48. Mega Services
    • Rise of BRIC results in multiple superpowers
    • Trade liberalization wins
    • Global financial services consolidation
    • Integration across financial services sectors
    • Profitability high but cyclical
    • High customer expectations
    • Banks diversify into other personal services, partly through alliances
    • Niche service providers emerge to support the market leaders
  • 49. Scenario Framework: Global Financial Services in 2020 Consolidation Fragmentation Transformational Traditional New frontier Mega Services Agent economy Barriers Rising AGGREGATION TECHNOLOGY UPTAKE
  • 50. Critical uncertainties Driving forces Implications Scenarios for financial services Opportunities Scenario thinking
  • 51. Key capabilities for success in 2020
    • Specialization
    • Integration
    • Scalable relationship management
    • Cross-selling
    • Responsive strategic re-positioning
  • 52. Two layers of technology in organizations Ad-hoc networks Standardized processes
  • 53. Shifting relationship channels
  • 54. Critical uncertainties Driving forces Implications Scenarios for financial services Opportunities Scenario thinking
  • 55. The flow economy
  • 56. Opportunities for Indian FS Industry
    • Best-of-breed modular services
    • Adapting microfinance expertise
    • Financial Services Virtual Operator support
    • Global mobile payments
    • Branded global Joint Ventures
    • Support India’s success
  • 57. Critical uncertainties Driving forces Implications Scenarios for financial services Opportunities Scenario thinking
  • 58. We have a choice
  • 59. Online resources “ Dawson has pulled off the nigh-impossible: improved on what was already a terrific book. Even more than before, this is essential reading for professional service firms.” - David Maister , author, Managing the Professional Service Firm www.rossdawsonblog.com Commentary, free chapters, and downloads at: “ I’m not sure that even Ross Dawson realizes how radical – and how likely – his vision of the future is.” - Seth Godin , author, Purple Cows
  • 60. Create the future of financial services!