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2010 Florida Job Summit, Jan 15
 

2010 Florida Job Summit, Jan 15

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    2010 Florida Job Summit, Jan 15 2010 Florida Job Summit, Jan 15 Presentation Transcript

    • 2010 Florida Jobs Summit Rosen Shingle Creek Hotel Orlando, Florida January 15, 2010 Tony Villamil St. Thomas University of Florida The Washington Economics Group (WEG) Jobs and the Florida Economy: An Economist’s Perspective
    • Economic Principles
      • Cyclical vs. fundamental change
      • Employment is a lagging indicator of economic activity; labor demand is derived demand
      • Florida is a regional economy, highly sensitive to US, global and financial conditions
      • Policy credibility and certainty are essential for job creation: “do no harm”
      • Scarce human and financial capital for job creation flows to regions, states and countries that offer the highest returns, adjusted for risk (including regulatory, tax policy risks)
    • Economic Principles
      • The greater the degree of policy intervention by government in the marketplace, the greater the risk of adverse consequences
      • Florida is a global player; policies should reflect a global orientation to job creation
      • Florida is competing in a knowledge-based 21 st Century economy: talent creation is the key to longer term employment growth
    • Florida Into the Perfect Economic Storm 2008-2009 Sharp Decline in Household Net Worth Global Financial Crisis Synchronized Global Economic Recession
      • From employment growth leader to a leader in employment decline
      • Cyclical decline and not fundamentals, is the main factor of high unemployment
    • Cyclical Factors are Improving: Unemployment Rates will Eventually Decline in Florida Economic Driver Outlook 2010
      • US Economy
      Moderate growth expected in 2010, but at slower pace than prior recoveries
      • Global Economy
      Top trade and investment partners performance improving, which will fuel demand for Florida’s goods and services
      • Financial Markets
      Stability returning, credit availability is improving, but remains tight for small businesses and for commercial real estate
    • What Can Florida Government Do to Accelerate Job Creation under an Improving Cyclical Picture?
      • Short Term (2010-2011 )
      • Suspend, for as long as possible, the significant increase in the Unemployment Compensation Tax: A tax on labor demand
      • Take advantage of growing global economies by funding again the successful Florida International Business Expansion Initiative
      • Pass HB93 and SB1178 “Cost Benefit Analysis of Legislation:” Education, economic development and tax policy initiatives require dynamic analysis for optimum policy decisions
      continued
    • What Can Florida Government Do to Accelerate Job Creation under an Improving Cyclical Picture?
      • Aggressively promote the pro-growth business climate of Florida to US and Global Markets
      • Help defeat “growth and jobs destroyer” Constitutional Amendment 4
      • Tax relief for consumers and small businesses – to the extent possible
      • Sell State assets to the extent possible, holding education investment “harmless”
      continued
    • What Can Florida Government Do to Accelerate Job Creation under an Improving Cyclical Picture? “3 Yards & Cloud of Dust!”
      • Longer Term
      • Economic Diversification for High Skill, High Wage Jobs
      • Steadily implement the 2010-2015 Strategic Plan for Economic Development, with emphasis on talent creation and innovation initiatives
      • Develop new (non-tax) sources of revenues to invest in human capital and infrastructure development
        •  Mineral wealth  Innovative financing
    • Best Way to Create Jobs: Unemployment Rate only 5% for College Graduates U.S. December 2009 Age 25 and Older, US Census.
    • Talent Pays!: Employment-Population Ratio 73% for College Graduates U.S. December 2009 Age 25 and Older, US Census