Web2.0: Why we got here and what's next

Slideshow Transcript

1. Slide 1: Web 2.0: Why we got here, and what’s next Rolf S kyberg rskyberg@ebay.com Disruptive Innovator for eB ay, Inc. Friday, S eptember 14, 2007
2. Slide 2: my job title at eB ay is both fun, and confusing
3. Slide 3: the role of “ Disruptive Innovator”
4. Slide 4: is part Product Manager, part evangelist,
5. Slide 5: sometimes developer,
6. Slide 6: and always watcher.
7. Slide 7: my main job is to inspire and excite individuals both inside and outside eB ay
8. Slide 8: by any means necessary.
9. Slide 9: a little history about myself:
10. Slide 10: my University major was business,
11. Slide 11: but I also minored in theatre
12. Slide 12: and later pursued graduate studies in S ystem S cience
13. Slide 13: “ S ystem S cience” is the study of complex interactions over time,
14. Slide 14: including topics like: computer networks, economics, traffic flow and human actions.
15. Slide 15: this morning I will be talking about:
16. Slide 16: people,
17. Slide 17: ploughs,
18. Slide 18: power,
19. Slide 19: horses,
20. Slide 20: dishwashers,
21. Slide 21: France,
22. Slide 22: bears,
23. Slide 23: beers,
24. Slide 24: windmills,
25. Slide 25: and maybe the internet.
26. Slide 26: (actually, the bears are just a joke)
27. Slide 27: this is in fact, a bear-free presentation.
28. Slide 28: and because there are no bears,
29. Slide 29: let’s start with windmills.
30. Slide 30: when I say “ windmill” ,
31. Slide 31: most people think about:
32. Slide 33: but I’m not talking about Dutch windmills
33. Slide 34: I’m talking about:
34. Slide 36: much as Dutch windmills opened up new land
35. Slide 37: by removing water,
36. Slide 38: A merican windmills were a critical part of settling the “ Great A merican Desert”
37. Slide 39: by adding water.
38. Slide 40: “ Oh, you’ ve never heard of the Great American Desert? ”
39. Slide 41: much of the A merican west was purchased from France
40. Slide 42: by President Jefferson in 1803 as part of the Louisiana Purchase,
41. Slide 43: essentially sight-unseen.
42. Slide 45: ?
43. Slide 46: seeking to explore this land and encourage settlement,
44. Slide 47: the federal government dispatched a mission of exploration in 1819
45. Slide 48: which surveyed the land for a total of 4 years.
46. Slide 49: in 1821, S tephen Long published journals including this map:
47. Slide 51: on which he added the cautionary text:
48. Slide 52: “ frequented by roving bands of indians who have no fixed place of residence, but roam from place to place in search of game”
49. Slide 53: his annotation was associated with an area he called the “ Great Desert”
50. Slide 55: it wasn’t a desert like the S ahara desert,
51. Slide 56: but it was extremely harsh.
52. Slide 57: for the first settlers
53. Slide 58: coming from the wet, hilly A tlantic coast,
54. Slide 59: lands West of the Mississippi
55. Slide 60: appeared to be hostile to settlement and farming.
56. Slide 61: Long’s description discouraged settlers
57. Slide 62: and the reality of what was in the West didn’t help either:
58. Slide 63: no trees,
59. Slide 64: no water,
60. Slide 65: soil you couldn’t plow because of thick native grasses,
61. Slide 66: and far away from civilization and transportation.
62. Slide 67: the first issue was solved by a technical pioneer:
63. Slide 69: the ploughs designed for the sandy soil of the East
64. Slide 70: were entirely useless in the thick clay soil of the West,
65. Slide 71: so he invented (and became rich from)
66. Slide 72: the steel plough
67. Slide 73: but even though you could plough the soil,
68. Slide 74: you still couldn’t grow anything
69. Slide 75: because there wasn’t enough rain.
70. Slide 76: Daniel Halladay solved this problem in 1854
71. Slide 77: with his autonomous wind-pump
72. Slide 79: these pumps tapped a huge underground water source
73. Slide 80: just a hundred meters below ground
74. Slide 81: called the “ Ogallala A quifer” .
75. Slide 83: prospects started looking better,
76. Slide 84: but the West was still a desolate, lonely place.
77. Slide 85: even if you could grow enough grain to sell at a market, there was no way to get it there
78. Slide 86: the final step in settling the west came in the form
79. Slide 87: of a trans-continental railroad
80. Slide 89: completed in 1873, the railroad linked farms with markets
81. Slide 90: finally making it possible for families to earn a living.
82. Slide 91: this area is now known as The Great Plains,
83. Slide 92: and is one of the most productive areas of farmland in the world.
84. Slide 93: just a hundred meters below ground.
85. Slide 94: European settlement of the west
86. Slide 95: happened only because it was enabled by a series of technologies.
87. Slide 96: working together, windmills, steel ploughs, and train transport
88. Slide 97: enabled settlers to enter an environment entirely new and different,
89. Slide 98: and created the movement we call “ settling the west” .
90. Slide 99: Web 2.0 is the same pattern.
91. Slide 100: western settlement wasn’t a “ thing” , it was an era.
92. Slide 101: Web 2.0 also isn’t a “ thing” , but a time.
93. Slide 102: Web 2.0 is the time when many events,
94. Slide 103: both technological and social
95. Slide 104: have converged to create apparently boundless opportunity.
96. Slide 105: “ But if it’ s not a thing, why all the excitement? ”
97. Slide 106: let’s look at how people think,
98. Slide 107: how about a graph?
99. Slide 108: TIME
100. Slide 109: now we need something on this graph TIME
101. Slide 110: what we can do TIME what we can’t do
102. Slide 111: “ our expectations” what we can do TIME what we can’t do
103. Slide 112: “ inflections in expectation”
104. Slide 113: as our expectations exceed what a product can deliver, we lower our expectations over time
105. Slide 114: of course, products are always improving
106. Slide 115: and our expectations rise again
107. Slide 116: when we see “ something new”
108. Slide 117: these are “ inflections of expectation”
109. Slide 118: of course, in our excitement, we forget this portion of the graph
110. Slide 119: so when we see this part of the graph
111. Slide 120: we go here
112. Slide 121: but remember this part of the pattern?
113. Slide 122: because we’re really going here
114. Slide 123: and what’s this space here? ?
115. Slide 124: the bubble
116. Slide 125: “ Are you telling me that, Web 2.0 is all fluff and bubble then? ”
117. Slide 126: no, absolutely not,
118. Slide 127: but who is telling you it is important?
119. Slide 128: marketers and pundits?
120. Slide 129: bloggers?
121. Slide 130: analysts?
122. Slide 131: beware of anyone who claims they can “ do” Web 2.0 for your business.
123. Slide 132: the rules of business have not changed
124. Slide 133: the most important thing you can do is serve your customers well.
125. Slide 134: if you feel you must embrace Web 2.0,
126. Slide 135: approach each new technology as you would any other for your business
127. Slide 136: carefully consider the reasons for implementing it,
128. Slide 137: and the value payback.
129. Slide 138: however, it may be likely that you do not have the expertise
130. Slide 139: to know what is “ best” for your customers in this regard.
131. Slide 140: “ And how will I know what is best for my customers? ”
132. Slide 141: here are two simple things you can do to make your customers love you:
133. Slide 142: (get our your pencils)
134. Slide 143: 1) give them what they need
135. Slide 144: 2) don’t steal from them
136. Slide 145: to understand what they need,
137. Slide 146: let’s look at some similar patterns:
138. Slide 147: Tom S tandage
139. Slide 149: 200 years ago
140. Slide 151: Claude & Ignace Chappe
141. Slide 152: built a network
142. Slide 153: transmitting
143. Slide 154: military & governmental information
144. Slide 155: their system
145. Slide 156: optical telegraph
146. Slide 157: (556 nodes)
147. Slide 158: (4,800 kilometres)
148. Slide 159: swinging arms
149. Slide 161: “ telegraph”
150. Slide 162: “ far writer”
151. Slide 163: fast!
152. Slide 164: indeed,
153. Slide 165: fast-er
154. Slide 167: slow
155. Slide 168: 2 words per minute.
156. Slide 169: the concept behind optical telegraphy
157. Slide 170: laid the groundwork
158. Slide 172: S amuel M orse ... .- -- ..- . .-.. / -- --- .-. ... .
159. Slide 173: initially used by railway lines & government
160. Slide 174: also commercialized
161. Slide 175: private entrepreneurs
162. Slide 176: speculated
163. Slide 177: business people would be willing to pay
164. Slide 178: for this rapid communication
165. Slide 179: so they launched
166. Slide 180: pay-per-word services
167. Slide 181: [only] businesses
168. Slide 182: high cost per message
169. Slide 183: nonetheless:
170. Slide 184: expanded
171. Slide 185: interesting thing happened:
172. Slide 186: some people
173. Slide 187: free,
174. Slide 188: un-metered access:
175. Slide 189: the operators.
176. Slide 190: young,
177. Slide 191: talented,
178. Slide 192: very bored.
179. Slide 193: when you don’ t have to pay…
180. Slide 194: jokes
181. Slide 195: stories
182. Slide 197: friends, court, marry.
183. Slide 198: we start to see a progression of human priorities:
184. Slide 199: (1) support your military
185. Slide 200: (11) make a dollar
186. Slide 201: (111) “ chat”
187. Slide 202: we see the same pattern,
188. Slide 203: with telegraph’s successor:
189. Slide 204: radio
190. Slide 205: rich history in the story of radio,
191. Slide 206: but we’ll start at:
192. Slide 207: 1944
193. Slide 208: M otorola “ Handie Talkie”
194. Slide 209: infantry field radio
195. Slide 211: after the war,
196. Slide 212: business saw the value of wireless connectivity
197. Slide 213: commercialized the technology
198. Slide 214: built a cellular network
199. Slide 215: 1984
200. Slide 216: M otorola “ DynaTA C” 8000X
201. Slide 217: “ the brick”
202. Slide 218: pitched at the business market,
203. Slide 219: pretty much its only market,
204. Slide 220: with a $4000 price tag
205. Slide 221: 21 years later…
206. Slide 222: M otorola RA ZR
207. Slide 223: in pink, commonly sported by adolescent girls
208. Slide 224: for almost entirely social purposes.
209. Slide 225: if we trace the priorities again,
210. Slide 226: 1. fear money initially funds a technology
211. Slide 227: 2. business money expands the network
212. Slide 228: 3. the network is adopted for social needs
213. Slide 229: in simpler terms,
214. Slide 230: the order of the market’s priorities seem to be:
215. Slide 231: 1. safety
216. Slide 232: 2. prosperity
217. Slide 233: 3. socialization.
218. Slide 234: luckily, we’ve seen this pattern before
219. Slide 235: “ M aslow’s Hierarchy of Needs”
220. Slide 236: A braham M aslow
221. Slide 237: his paper: “ A Theory of Human Motivation”
222. Slide 238: 1943
223. Slide 239: model
224. Slide 240: describes the needs, wants, desires of individuals.
225. Slide 241: the model itself:
226. Slide 242: “ levels” or tiers
227. Slide 243: survival
228. Slide 244: security
229. Slide 245: belonging
230. Slide 246: esteem
231. Slide 247: enlightenment.
232. Slide 248: lower levels supersede upper levels
233. Slide 249: for example:
234. Slide 250: you wouldn’t want to
235. Slide 251: be social belonging
236. Slide 252: losing your job security
237. Slide 253: similarly,
238. Slide 254: you probably wouldn’t care
239. Slide 255: drop your wallet security
240. Slide 256: survival chased by wolves
241. Slide 257: the tiered system enforces an “ order” to priorities.
242. Slide 258: markets as a whole,
243. Slide 259: follow this same hierarchy.
244. Slide 260: if we look at a market
245. Slide 263: market == collection of individuals
246. Slide 264: each individuals’ actions
247. Slide 265: combine to create
248. Slide 266: “ market pressure”
249. Slide 267: markets act like the individuals in that market.
250. Slide 268: we see the same pattern in the
251. Slide 269: Internet
252. Slide 270: first, something everybody can agree upon
253. Slide 271: 0.0 (A RPA NE T) Web defense
254. Slide 272: protects everybody’s basest level of needs
255. Slide 273: now that we all feel like we’ll survive,
256. Slide 274: “ ensure our future, make a buck”
257. Slide 275: Web 1.0 commerce
258. Slide 276: Web 1.0 focused on selling things,
259. Slide 277: because things are easy to count
260. Slide 278: and therefore easy to prove profit-margins on.
261. Slide 279: lastly
262. Slide 280: “ individual needs”
263. Slide 281: Web 2.0 social beings
264. Slide 282: “ What I’ m hearing, is that I should build a social network? ”
265. Slide 283: yes and no.
266. Slide 284: actually, please don’t.
267. Slide 285: there are much better things that you can spend your money on.
268. Slide 286: highly successful businesses understand this hiearchy
269. Slide 287: and use it for profit.
270. Slide 288: remember, these priorities are innate to all humans,
271. Slide 289: so these motivations apply both online and offline.
272. Slide 290: for example:
273. Slide 291: (here’s the audience participation time) (test your global business knowledge)
274. Slide 292: what thing?
275. Slide 294: all sell,
276. Slide 295: not related to their core business?
277. Slide 297: hot dogs.
278. Slide 298: why?
279. Slide 299: because they want you to participate
280. Slide 300: shop commerce
281. Slide 301: but as a human you still need to fulfil
282. Slide 302: eat survival
283. Slide 303: two at once:
284. Slide 304: shop commerce eat survival
285. Slide 305: “ profit!”
286. Slide 307: “ rounding error”
287. Slide 309: considering human needs
288. Slide 310: increases business
289. Slide 311: by enabling their users
290. Slide 312: to focus on their product.
291. Slide 313: now that we’ve understand the model
292. Slide 314: let’s look at:
293. Slide 315: How to use this model (for fun and profit)
294. Slide 316: going back to M yS pace for a second,
295. Slide 317: the model helps us frame some “ miraculous” things we’ve seen.
296. Slide 318: while at the Web 2.0 E xpo, I overheard:
297. Slide 319: “ MySpace--- and who would have guessed that would take off? ”
298. Slide 320: now, for their target market,
299. Slide 321: putting food on the table and paying the mortgage aren’t the most important things,
300. Slide 322: so they have a lot of time and energy,
301. Slide 323: to focus on these two needs,
302. Slide 324: higher on the pyramid
303. Slide 325: be myself M yS pace sweet spot be social
304. Slide 326: we’re surprised that teens are drawn to a place where they can:
305. Slide 327: listen to music
306. Slide 328: talk loudly
307. Slide 329: and express themselves without parental supervision?
308. Slide 330: we had M yS pace before,
309. Slide 331: but it was called “ the ice cream parlor”
310. Slide 332: or the arcade,
311. Slide 333: or “ down by the river”
312. Slide 334: or the hayloft.
313. Slide 335: even as adults, we seek places where we can
314. Slide 336: talk loudly, listen to music, and possibly act like a fool
315. Slide 337: we call this “ the pub”
316. Slide 338: if you don’t believe in the possibilities of this business model,
317. Slide 339: consider the “ Y e Old Trip to Jerusalem”
318. Slide 341: since 1189.
319. Slide 342: I encourage you to look beyond
320. Slide 343: how you currently serve your public
321. Slide 344: and deliver on products which address their whole human,
322. Slide 345: above and below the commerce levels if possible.
323. Slide 346: I should warn you,
324. Slide 347: the pyramid has strong influences that are not to be ignored
325. Slide 348: at even the most fundamental product level
326. Slide 349: an example from eB ay’s own experience
327. Slide 350: “ eB ay B logs”
328. Slide 351: we thought we were building:
329. Slide 352: esteem be myself expression
330. Slide 353: so let’s look at a typical blog entry from last night:
331. Slide 354: “ nighty nite all >*o*< sweet dreams my friends i have to work early so i prob wont see yas tomorrow morn. have a good night ”
332. Slide 355: >*o*<
333. Slide 356: and the “ blog comments” on that entry?
334. Slide 357: • good night • SWEET DREAMS • Nite - new banner - nice - sleep well dear - catch ya sometime tomorrow. • Good night dd. Have a nice day at work tomorrow. • Have a good night! • Nite! • Good Night
335. Slide 358: [not] eB ay B logs
336. Slide 359: eB ay chat.
337. Slide 360: e rribl ry te eB ay chat. a ve
338. Slide 361: unfulfilled
339. Slide 362: be social belonging social beings
340. Slide 363: new tool?
341. Slide 364: my needs.
342. Slide 365: If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
343. Slide 366: we gave them a screwdriver,
344. Slide 367: which is found to be a poor hammer
345. Slide 368: (but that’s not going to stop anybody from pounding nails with it).
346. Slide 369: “ B ut didn’t you say something about not stealing? ”
347. Slide 370: yes.
348. Slide 371: don’t steal,
349. Slide 372: nobody likes a thief,
350. Slide 373: and they will only put up with it as long as they have no alternative.
351. Slide 374: but all businesses “ steal” ,
352. Slide 375: so the business that steals the least, wins.
353. Slide 376: in the hierarchy model,
354. Slide 377: as tiers increase, expendable resources decrease
355. Slide 378: because total resources are finite.
356. Slide 379: illustration
357. Slide 381: ten below zero
358. Slide 382: eleven at night
359. Slide 383: $65
360. Slide 384: hotel: $55 dinner: $5 the movie channel: $10
361. Slide 385: enlightenment esteem belonging security survival $55 + $5 for lodging and food
362. Slide 386: enlightenment esteem belonging security survival all our money spent right here
363. Slide 387: the more energy our members waste in finding the basics,
364. Slide 388: such as
365. Slide 389: help
366. Slide 390: search
367. Slide 391: login
368. Slide 392: submit
369. Slide 393: and “ contact us” ,
370. Slide 394: the less energy they have to actually enjoy your product.
371. Slide 395: and if you don’t want them spending their precious time there
372. Slide 396: make it so they never need to ask for help.
373. Slide 397: because making them work to use your site
374. Slide 398: is stealing their time
375. Slide 399: and flushing it down the toilet.
376. Slide 400: they don’t like their time wasted,
377. Slide 401: and it’s not making you any money.
378. Slide 402: make products that delight and empower your users.
379. Slide 403: your members will continue to be humans
380. Slide 404: and human needs aren’t changing
381. Slide 405: so success will go to the products,
382. Slide 406: that fulfills the most needs,
383. Slide 407: with the least amount of waste
384. Slide 408: waste =
385. Slide 409: “ anything which doesn’t delight or empower your users”
386. Slide 410: because anything else, you’re stealing their time
387. Slide 411: you can only get by stealing for so long.
388. Slide 412: now that I’ve given you some new tools,
389. Slide 413: lets sum this all up by applying some of them
390. Slide 414: New Ways of Looking at the World
391. Slide 415: we should stop being fascinated
392. Slide 416: that our phones and cars and toilets are ‘internet enabled’
393. Slide 417: just like you’d never say,
394. Slide 418: OMG, UR DISHWASHER RUNZ on ELECTR1CITY??!!!
395. Slide 419: the most successful of us
396. Slide 420: will stop looking at the internet as Web X.Y ,
397. Slide 421: but as a tool to help us cope with our inability
398. Slide 422: to store, process, retrieve and transmit massive amounts of information
399. Slide 423: with other humans not near me.
400. Slide 424: without amplification, the human voice carries maybe 100 meters,
401. Slide 425: since the dawn of time, humans have been looking for way to amplify that voice
402. Slide 426: and the internet is the latest (fastest) version of that desire yet.
403. Slide 427: but it is fundamentally no different than the letter, telephone or telegraph.
404. Slide 428: another lesson from the pyramid,
405. Slide 429: what about the social aspect of what you’re doing?
406. Slide 430: imagine reading a book, but you couldn’t tell your friends about it
407. Slide 431: imagine buying a house, but you couldn’t throw a party?
408. Slide 432: the pyramid shows us that we are fundamentally social creatures
409. Slide 433: the internet has the capability to provide rich interaction
410. Slide 434: and where it makes sense, interweaving that social nature can dramatically add to our experience
411. Slide 435: so here’s the tricky part:
412. Slide 436: building a product is like building a house
413. Slide 438: water and electricity are useful things to nearly everybody
414. Slide 440: the skill lies in knowing what rooms need what
415. Slide 443: and the last one (which is really more of a warning)
416. Slide 444: it is important to temper hype with clear thinking,
417. Slide 445: there will be many ill-conceived uses of recently “ discovered” aspects of computing
418. Slide 446: on the web, I’m talking about discoveries such as: A JA X social networking community filtering badges widgets RS S viral apps
419. Slide 447: just because something works in one place, doesn’t mean it has a use every place
420. Slide 448: consider an advertisement from 1909 during a similar “ 2.0” time of history:
421. Slide 449: For weakness in men and women, personal exhaustion bringing back lost strength and power, over brain work, vitality, impotency, rheumatism, lame back, railroad back, insomnia, melancholia, kidney disorder, dyspepsia, disorders of the liver, poor circulation, weak heart action and almost every known disease and weakness. The constant soothing alternating electric current is ever at work touching the weak spots, building up the system, stimulating the circulation. ALL THAT ELECTRICITY WILL DO FOR YOU WILL BE RECEIVED!
422. Slide 451: you know all about “ usability studies”
423. Slide 452: but what about “ feasibility studies” ?
424. Slide 453: I’m sure the enhancement is technically feasible
425. Slide 454: but will it survive in the market?
426. Slide 455: M cDonald’s knows how to setup a “ restaurant”
427. Slide 456: but before they build one,
428. Slide 457: they study the streets, the demographics, the foot traffic, and their competitors.
429. Slide 458: they do this because installing a business is a costly experiment,
430. Slide 459: so they need it to stick around for awhile.
431. Slide 460: ask yourself,
432. Slide 461: am I investing in something that will last in the long run?
433. Slide 462: luckily, there is an easy way to think of these things:
434. Slide 463: “ does this make me laugh or help me out? ”
435. Slide 464: “ does this product directly address a basic human desire? ”
436. Slide 465: “ would this be useful to a villager in a developing nation? ”
437. Slide 466: to build tools, services and experiences which empower and delight your users and employees
438. Slide 467: not only makes sense,
439. Slide 468: it’s good for business.
440. Slide 469: I believe:
441. Slide 470: in “ life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness…”
442. Slide 471: and together,
443. Slide 472: we can bring that spirit to everyone.
444. Slide 473: The End.
445. Slide 474: Rolf S kyberg rskyberg@ebay.com http:/ rolfskyberg.wordpress.com /
446. Slide 475: Thank you to: L awrence Lessig, for the presentation style Dick Hardt, for the inspiration Inkscape, for a wonderful vector graphics tool Rebecca Rijnders for inviting me EMERCE for e.day and you, (yes you), for coming
447. Slide 476: S lide #476
448. Slide 477: Rolf S kyberg rskyberg@ebay.com http:/ rolfskyberg.wordpress.com /