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Slide 1: Web 2.0: Why we got here, and what’s next Rolf S kyberg rskyberg@ebay.com Disruptive Innovator for eB ay, Inc. Friday, S eptember 14, 2007

Slide 2: my job title at eB ay is both fun, and confusing

Slide 3: the role of “ Disruptive Innovator”

Slide 4: is part Product Manager, part evangelist,

Slide 5: sometimes developer,

Slide 6: and always watcher.

Slide 7: my main job is to inspire and excite individuals both inside and outside eB ay

Slide 8: by any means necessary.

Slide 9: a little history about myself:

Slide 10: my University major was business,

Slide 11: but I also minored in theatre

Slide 12: and later pursued graduate studies in S ystem S cience

Slide 13: “ S ystem S cience” is the study of complex interactions over time,

Slide 14: including topics like: computer networks, economics, traffic flow and human actions.

Slide 15: this morning I will be talking about:

Slide 16: people,

Slide 17: ploughs,

Slide 18: power,

Slide 19: horses,

Slide 20: dishwashers,

Slide 21: France,

Slide 22: bears,

Slide 23: beers,

Slide 24: windmills,

Slide 25: and maybe the internet.

Slide 26: (actually, the bears are just a joke)

Slide 27: this is in fact, a bear-free presentation.

Slide 28: and because there are no bears,

Slide 29: let’s start with windmills.

Slide 30: when I say “ windmill” ,

Slide 31: most people think about:

Slide 33: but I’m not talking about Dutch windmills

Slide 34: I’m talking about:

Slide 36: much as Dutch windmills opened up new land

Slide 37: by removing water,

Slide 38: A merican windmills were a critical part of settling the “ Great A merican Desert”

Slide 39: by adding water.

Slide 40: “ Oh, you’ ve never heard of the Great American Desert? ”

Slide 41: much of the A merican west was purchased from France

Slide 42: by President Jefferson in 1803 as part of the Louisiana Purchase,

Slide 43: essentially sight-unseen.

Slide 45: ?

Slide 46: seeking to explore this land and encourage settlement,

Slide 47: the federal government dispatched a mission of exploration in 1819

Slide 48: which surveyed the land for a total of 4 years.

Slide 49: in 1821, S tephen Long published journals including this map:

Slide 51: on which he added the cautionary text:

Slide 52: “ frequented by roving bands of indians who have no fixed place of residence, but roam from place to place in search of game”

Slide 53: his annotation was associated with an area he called the “ Great Desert”

Slide 55: it wasn’t a desert like the S ahara desert,

Slide 56: but it was extremely harsh.

Slide 57: for the first settlers

Slide 58: coming from the wet, hilly A tlantic coast,

Slide 59: lands West of the Mississippi

Slide 60: appeared to be hostile to settlement and farming.

Slide 61: Long’s description discouraged settlers

Slide 62: and the reality of what was in the West didn’t help either:

Slide 63: no trees,

Slide 64: no water,

Slide 65: soil you couldn’t plow because of thick native grasses,

Slide 66: and far away from civilization and transportation.

Slide 67: the first issue was solved by a technical pioneer:

Slide 69: the ploughs designed for the sandy soil of the East

Slide 70: were entirely useless in the thick clay soil of the West,

Slide 71: so he invented (and became rich from)

Slide 72: the steel plough

Slide 73: but even though you could plough the soil,

Slide 74: you still couldn’t grow anything

Slide 75: because there wasn’t enough rain.

Slide 76: Daniel Halladay solved this problem in 1854

Slide 77: with his autonomous wind-pump

Slide 79: these pumps tapped a huge underground water source

Slide 80: just a hundred meters below ground

Slide 81: called the “ Ogallala A quifer” .

Slide 83: prospects started looking better,

Slide 84: but the West was still a desolate, lonely place.

Slide 85: even if you could grow enough grain to sell at a market, there was no way to get it there

Slide 86: the final step in settling the west came in the form

Slide 87: of a trans-continental railroad

Slide 89: completed in 1873, the railroad linked farms with markets

Slide 90: finally making it possible for families to earn a living.

Slide 91: this area is now known as The Great Plains,

Slide 92: and is one of the most productive areas of farmland in the world.

Slide 93: just a hundred meters below ground.

Slide 94: European settlement of the west

Slide 95: happened only because it was enabled by a series of technologies.

Slide 96: working together, windmills, steel ploughs, and train transport

Slide 97: enabled settlers to enter an environment entirely new and different,

Slide 98: and created the movement we call “ settling the west” .

Slide 99: Web 2.0 is the same pattern.

Slide 100: western settlement wasn’t a “ thing” , it was an era.

Slide 101: Web 2.0 also isn’t a “ thing” , but a time.

Slide 102: Web 2.0 is the time when many events,

Slide 103: both technological and social

Slide 104: have converged to create apparently boundless opportunity.

Slide 105: “ But if it’ s not a thing, why all the excitement? ”

Slide 106: let’s look at how people think,

Slide 107: how about a graph?

Slide 108: TIME

Slide 109: now we need something on this graph TIME

Slide 110: what we can do TIME what we can’t do

Slide 111: “ our expectations” what we can do TIME what we can’t do

Slide 112: “ inflections in expectation”

Slide 113: as our expectations exceed what a product can deliver, we lower our expectations over time

Slide 114: of course, products are always improving

Slide 115: and our expectations rise again

Slide 116: when we see “ something new”

Slide 117: these are “ inflections of expectation”

Slide 118: of course, in our excitement, we forget this portion of the graph

Slide 119: so when we see this part of the graph

Slide 120: we go here

Slide 121: but remember this part of the pattern?

Slide 122: because we’re really going here