Web 2.0: Why we got here, and what’s next Rolf Skyberg [email_address] Disruptive Innovator for eBay, Inc. Wednesday, May ...
my job title at eBay is both fun, and confusing
the role of “Disruptive Innovator”
is part Product Manager, part evangelist,
sometimes developer,
and always  watcher .
my main job is to inspire and excite individuals both inside and outside eBay
by any means necessary.
a little history about myself:
my University major was business,
but I also minored in theatre
and later pursued graduate studies in System Science
“ System Science” is the study of complex interactions over time,
including topics like: computer networks, economics, traffic flow and human actions.
this morning I will be talking about:
people,
ploughs,
power,
horses,
dishwashers,
France,
bears,
beers,
windmills,
and maybe the internet.
(actually, the bears are just a joke)
this is in fact, a  bear-free presentation.
and because there are no bears,
let’s start with windmills .
when I say “windmill”,
most people think about:
 
but I’m not talking about Dutch windmills
I’m talking about:
 
much as Dutch windmills opened up new land
by removing water,
American windmills were a critical part of settling the “ Great American Desert ”
by  adding  water.
“ Oh, you’ve never heard of the Great American Desert? ”
much of the American west was purchased from France
by President Jefferson in 1803 as part of the Louisiana Purchase,
essentially sight-unseen.
 
?
seeking to explore this land and encourage settlement,
the federal government dispatched a mission of exploration in 1819
which surveyed the land for a total of 4 years.
in 1821, Stephen Long published journals including this map:
 
on which he added the cautionary text:
“ frequented by roving bands of indians who have no fixed place of residence, but roam from place to place in search of ga...
his annotation was associated with an area he called the “ Great Desert”
 
it wasn’t a desert like the Sahara desert,
but it was extremely harsh.
for the first settlers
coming from the wet, hilly Atlantic coast,
lands West of the Mississippi
appeared to be hostile to settlement and farming.
Long’s description discouraged settlers
and the reality of what was in the West didn’t help either:
no trees,
no water,
soil you couldn’t plow because of thick native grasses,
and far away from civilization and transportation.
the first issue was solved by a technical pioneer:
 
the ploughs designed for the sandy soil of the East
were entirely useless in the thick clay soil of the West,
so he invented (and became rich from)
the steel plough
but even though you could plough the soil,
you still couldn’t grow anything
because there wasn’t enough rain.
Daniel Halladay solved this problem in 1854
with his autonomous wind-pump
 
these pumps tapped a huge underground water source
just a hundred meters below ground
called the “Ogallala Aquifer”.
 
prospects started looking better,
but the West was still a desolate, lonely place.
even if you could grow enough grain to sell at a market, there was no way to get it there
the final step in settling the west came in the form
of a trans-continental railroad
 
completed in 1873, the railroad linked farms with markets
finally making it possible for families to earn a living.
this area is now known as The Great Plains,
and is one of the most productive areas of farmland in the world.
just a hundred meters below ground.
European settlement of the west
happened  only  because it was enabled by a series of technologies.
working together, windmills, steel ploughs, and train transport
enabled settlers to enter an environment entirely new and different,
and created the movement we call “settling the west”.
Web 2.0 is the same pattern.
western settlement wasn’t a “thing”, it was an  era .
Web 2.0 also isn’t a “thing”, but a  t ime.
Web 2.0 is the time when many events,
both technological and social
have converged to create apparently boundless opportunity.
“ But if it’s not a thing, why all the excitement?”
let’s look at how people think,
how about a graph?
TIME
TIME now we need something on this graph
what we can do what we can’t do TIME
what we can do what we can’t do TIME “ our expectations”
“ inflections in expectation”
as our expectations  exceed what a product can deliver, we lower our expectations over time
of course, products are always improving
and our expectations rise again
when we see “ something new”
these are “ inflections of expectation”
of course, in our excitement, we forget this portion of the graph
so when we see this part of the graph
we go here
but remember this part of the pattern?
because we’re really going here
? and what’s this space here?
the bubble
“ Are you telling me that, Web 2.0 is all fluff and bubble then?”
no, absolutely not,
but  who  is telling you it is important?
marketers and pundits?
bloggers?
analysts?
beware of anyone who claims they can “do” Web 2.0 for your business.
the rules of business have not changed
the most important thing you can do is serve your customers well.
if you feel you must  embrace Web 2.0,
approach each new technology as you would any other for your business
carefully consider the  reasons  for implementing it,
and the value payback.
however, it may be likely that you do not have the expertise
to know what is “best” for your customers in this regard.
“ And how will I know what is best for my customers?”
here are two simple things you can do to make your  customers love you:
(get our your pencils)
1 ) give them what they need
2 ) don’t steal from them
to understand what they need,
let’s look at some similar patterns:
Tom Standage
 
200 years ago
 
Claude & Ignace Chappe
built a network
transmitting
military & governmental information
their system
optical telegraph
(556 nodes)
(4,800 kilometres)
swinging arms
 
“ telegraph”
“ far writer”
fast!
indeed,
fast-er
 
s l o w
2 words per minute.
the concept behind optical telegraphy
laid the groundwork
 
Samuel Morse ... .- -- ..- . .-.. / -- --- .-. ... .
initially used by railway lines & government
also commercialized
private entrepreneurs
speculated
business people would be willing to pay
for this rapid communication
so they launched
pay-per-word services
[only] businesses
high cost per message
nonetheless:
expanded
interesting thing happened:
some people
free,
un-metered access:
the operators.
young,
talented,
very bored.
when you don’t have to pay…
jokes
stories
 
friends, court, marry.
we start to see a progression of human priorities:
(1) support your military
(11) make a dollar
(111) “chat”
we see the same pattern,
with telegraph’s successor:
radio
rich history in the story of radio,
but we’ll start at:
1944
Motorola “Handie Talkie”
infantry field radio
 
after the war,
business saw the value of wireless connectivity
commercialized the technology
built a cellular network
1984
Motorola “ DynaTAC” 8 000 X
“ the brick”
pitched at the business market,
pretty much its only market,
with a $4000 price tag
21 years later…
Motorola RAZR
in pink, commonly sported by adolescent girls
for almost entirely social purposes.
if we trace the priorities again,
1. fear money initially funds a technology
2. business money expands the network
3 . the network is adopted for social needs
in simpler terms,
the order of the market’s priorities seem to be:
1. safety
2. prosperity
3. socialization.
luckily, we’ve seen this pattern before
“ Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs”
Abraham Maslow
his paper: “A Theory of Human Motivation”
1943
model
describes the needs, wants, desires of individuals.
the model itself:
“ levels” or tiers
survival
security
belonging
esteem
enlightenment.
lower levels supersede upper levels
for example:
you wouldn’t want to
be social belonging
security losing your job
similarly,
you probably wouldn’t care
security drop your wallet
survival chased by wolves
the tiered system enforces an “order” to priorities.
markets as a whole,
follow this same hierarchy.
if we look at a market
 
 
market == collection of individuals
each individuals’ actions
combine to create
“ market pressure”
markets act like the individuals in that market.
we see the same pattern in the
Internet
first, something everybody can agree upon
Web  0 .0 (ARPANET) defense
protects everybody’s basest level of needs
now that we all feel like we’ll survive,
“ ensure our future, make a buck”
commerce Web  1 .0
Web 1.0 focused on selling  things,
because things are easy to count
and therefore easy to prove profit-margins on.
lastly
“ individual needs”
social beings Web  2 .0
“ What I’m hearing, is that I should build a social network?”
yes and no.
actually, please don’t.
there are much better things that you can spend your money on.
highly successful businesses understand this hiearchy
and use it for profit.
remember, these priorities are innate to all humans,
so these motivations apply both online and offline.
for example:
(here’s the audience participation time) (test your global business knowledge)
what thing?
 
all sell,
not related to their core business?
 
hot dogs.
why?
because they want you to participate
commerce shop
but as a human you still need to fulfil
survival eat
two at once:
survival eat commerce shop
“ profit!”
 
“ rounding error”
 
considering human needs
increases business
by enabling their users
to focus on their  product.
now that we’ve understand the model
let’s look at:
How to use this model (for fun and profit)
going back to MySpace for a second,
the model helps us frame some “miraculous” things we’ve seen.
while at the Web 2.0 Expo, I overheard:
“ MySpace ---  and who would have guessed  that  would take off? ”
now, for their target market,
putting food on the table and paying the mortgage aren’t the most important things,
so they have a lot of time and energy,
to focus on these two needs,
higher on the pyramid
be social be myself MySpace sweet spot
we’re  surprised  that teens are drawn to a place where they can:
listen to music
talk loudly
and express themselves without parental supervision?
we had MySpace before,
but it was called “the ice cream parlor”
or the arcade,
or “down by the river”
or the  hayloft .
even as adults, we seek places where we can
talk loudly, listen to music, and possibly act like a fool
we call this “ the pub”
if you don’t believe in the possibilities of this business model,
consider the “ Ye Old Trip to Jerusalem”
 
since  1189.
I encourage you to look beyond
how you currently serve your public
and deliver on products which address their whole human,
above and below the commerce levels if possible.
I should warn you,
the pyramid has strong influences that are not to be ignored
at even the most fundamental product level
an example from eBay’s own experience
“ eBay Blogs”
we thought we were building:
esteem expression be myself
so let’s look at a typical blog entry from last night:
“ nighty nite all >*o*< sweet dreams my friends i have to work early so i prob wont see yas tomorrow morn.  have a good ni...
>*o*<
and the “ blog comments” on that entry?
<ul><li>good night </li></ul><ul><li>SWEET DREAMS </li></ul><ul><li>Nite - new banner - nice - sleep well dear - catch ya ...
[not] eBay Blogs
eBay chat.
eBay chat. a very terrible
unfulfilled
belonging social beings be social
new tool?
my  needs.
If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
we gave them a screwdriver,
which is found to be a poor hammer
(but that’s not going to stop anybody from pounding nails with it).
“ But didn’t you say something about not stealing?”
yes.
don’t steal,
nobody likes a thief,
and they will only put up with it as long as they have no alternative.
but all businesses “steal”,
so the business that steals the least,  wins .
in the hierarchy model,
as tiers increase, expendable resources decrease
because total resources are finite.
illustration
 
ten below zero
eleven at night
$65
hotel: $55 dinner: $5 the movie channel: $10
survival security belonging esteem enlightenment $55 + $5 for lodging and food
survival security belonging esteem enlightenment all our money spent right here
the more energy our members  waste  in finding the basics,
such as
help
search
login
submit
and “ contact us ”,
the less energy they have to actually enjoy your product.
and if you don’t want them spending their precious time there
make it so they never need to  ask  for help.
because making them  work to use your site
is stealing their time
and flushing it down the toilet.
they don’t like their time wasted,
and it’s not making you any money.
make products that delight and empower your users.
your members will continue to be humans
and human needs aren’t changing
so success will go to the products,
that fulfills the most needs,
with the least amount of waste
waste =
“ anything which doesn’t  delight  or  empower  your users ”
because anything else, you’re stealing their time
you can only get by stealing for so long.
now that I’ve given you some new tools,
lets sum this all up by applying some of them
New Ways of Looking at the World
we should stop being fascinated
that our phones and cars and toilets are ‘internet enabled’
just like you’d never say,
OMG, UR DISHWASHER RUNZ on  ELECTR1CITY ??!!!
the most successful of us
will stop looking at the internet as  Web X.Y ,
but as a tool to help us cope with our inability
to store, process, retrieve and transmit massive amounts of information
with other humans not near me.
without amplification, the human voice carries maybe 100 meters,
since the dawn of time, humans have been looking for way to amplify that voice
and the internet is the latest (fastest) version of that desire yet.
but it is fundamentally no different than the letter, telephone or telegraph.
another lesson from the pyramid,
what about the social aspect of what you’re doing?
imagine reading a book, but you couldn’t tell your friends about it
imagine buying a house, but you couldn’t throw a party?
the pyramid shows us that we are fundamentally social creatures
the internet has the capability to provide rich interaction
and where it makes sense, interweaving that social nature can dramatically add to our experience
so here’s the tricky part:
building a product is like building a house
 
water and electricity are useful things to nearly everybody
 
the skill lies in knowing  what  rooms need  what
 
 
and the last one (which is really more of a warning)
it is important to temper hype with clear thinking,
there will be many ill-conceived uses of recently “discovered” aspects of computing
on the web, I’m talking about  discoveries  such as: AJAX social networking community filtering badges widgets RSS viral a...
just because something works in one place, doesn’t mean it has a use  every  place
consider an advertisement from 1909 during a similar “2.0” time of history:
For weakness in men and women, personal exhaustion bringing back lost strength and power, over brain work, vitality, impot...
 
you know all about “ usability studies”
but what about “ feasibility studies”?
I’m sure the enhancement is  technically  feasible
but will it survive in the market?
McDonald’s knows how to setup a “restaurant”
but before they build one,
they study the streets, the demographics, the foot traffic, and their competitors.
they do this because installing a business is a costly experiment,
so they need it to stick around for awhile.
ask yourself,
am I investing in something that will last in the long run?
luckily, there is an easy way to think of these things:
“ does this make me laugh or help me out?”
“ does this product directly address a basic human desire?”
“ would this be useful to a villager in a developing nation?”
to build tools, services and experiences which  empower  and  delight your users  and  employees
not only makes sense,
it’s  good  for business.
I believe:
in “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness…”
and together,
we can bring that spirit to everyone.
The End.
Rolf Skyberg [email_address] http://rolfskyberg.wordpress.com
Thank you to: Lawrence Lessig, for the presentation style Dick Hardt, for the inspiration Inkscape, for a wonderful vector...
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Web2.0: Why we got here and what's next

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What is Web 2.0 and why are we so excited by it? How should it affect business decisions?

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  • Interesting slide show - but I don't think it covers 'What's Next'. Reading the transcript below - gives you just about everything in the presentation - for those with dial up.<br /><br/>
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  • great presentation, but hell to go through if one doesn't have enough bandwidth. In the end the turning cog wheel in the center drives one nuts and detracts from the pace and message. Nevertheless, ultimately worth it. Thanks
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Web2.0: Why we got here and what's next

  1. 1. Web 2.0: Why we got here, and what’s next Rolf Skyberg [email_address] Disruptive Innovator for eBay, Inc. Wednesday, May 27, 2009
  2. 2. my job title at eBay is both fun, and confusing
  3. 3. the role of “Disruptive Innovator”
  4. 4. is part Product Manager, part evangelist,
  5. 5. sometimes developer,
  6. 6. and always watcher .
  7. 7. my main job is to inspire and excite individuals both inside and outside eBay
  8. 8. by any means necessary.
  9. 9. a little history about myself:
  10. 10. my University major was business,
  11. 11. but I also minored in theatre
  12. 12. and later pursued graduate studies in System Science
  13. 13. “ System Science” is the study of complex interactions over time,
  14. 14. including topics like: computer networks, economics, traffic flow and human actions.
  15. 15. this morning I will be talking about:
  16. 16. people,
  17. 17. ploughs,
  18. 18. power,
  19. 19. horses,
  20. 20. dishwashers,
  21. 21. France,
  22. 22. bears,
  23. 23. beers,
  24. 24. windmills,
  25. 25. and maybe the internet.
  26. 26. (actually, the bears are just a joke)
  27. 27. this is in fact, a bear-free presentation.
  28. 28. and because there are no bears,
  29. 29. let’s start with windmills .
  30. 30. when I say “windmill”,
  31. 31. most people think about:
  32. 33. but I’m not talking about Dutch windmills
  33. 34. I’m talking about:
  34. 36. much as Dutch windmills opened up new land
  35. 37. by removing water,
  36. 38. American windmills were a critical part of settling the “ Great American Desert ”
  37. 39. by adding water.
  38. 40. “ Oh, you’ve never heard of the Great American Desert? ”
  39. 41. much of the American west was purchased from France
  40. 42. by President Jefferson in 1803 as part of the Louisiana Purchase,
  41. 43. essentially sight-unseen.
  42. 45. ?
  43. 46. seeking to explore this land and encourage settlement,
  44. 47. the federal government dispatched a mission of exploration in 1819
  45. 48. which surveyed the land for a total of 4 years.
  46. 49. in 1821, Stephen Long published journals including this map:
  47. 51. on which he added the cautionary text:
  48. 52. “ frequented by roving bands of indians who have no fixed place of residence, but roam from place to place in search of game ”
  49. 53. his annotation was associated with an area he called the “ Great Desert”
  50. 55. it wasn’t a desert like the Sahara desert,
  51. 56. but it was extremely harsh.
  52. 57. for the first settlers
  53. 58. coming from the wet, hilly Atlantic coast,
  54. 59. lands West of the Mississippi
  55. 60. appeared to be hostile to settlement and farming.
  56. 61. Long’s description discouraged settlers
  57. 62. and the reality of what was in the West didn’t help either:
  58. 63. no trees,
  59. 64. no water,
  60. 65. soil you couldn’t plow because of thick native grasses,
  61. 66. and far away from civilization and transportation.
  62. 67. the first issue was solved by a technical pioneer:
  63. 69. the ploughs designed for the sandy soil of the East
  64. 70. were entirely useless in the thick clay soil of the West,
  65. 71. so he invented (and became rich from)
  66. 72. the steel plough
  67. 73. but even though you could plough the soil,
  68. 74. you still couldn’t grow anything
  69. 75. because there wasn’t enough rain.
  70. 76. Daniel Halladay solved this problem in 1854
  71. 77. with his autonomous wind-pump
  72. 79. these pumps tapped a huge underground water source
  73. 80. just a hundred meters below ground
  74. 81. called the “Ogallala Aquifer”.
  75. 83. prospects started looking better,
  76. 84. but the West was still a desolate, lonely place.
  77. 85. even if you could grow enough grain to sell at a market, there was no way to get it there
  78. 86. the final step in settling the west came in the form
  79. 87. of a trans-continental railroad
  80. 89. completed in 1873, the railroad linked farms with markets
  81. 90. finally making it possible for families to earn a living.
  82. 91. this area is now known as The Great Plains,
  83. 92. and is one of the most productive areas of farmland in the world.
  84. 93. just a hundred meters below ground.
  85. 94. European settlement of the west
  86. 95. happened only because it was enabled by a series of technologies.
  87. 96. working together, windmills, steel ploughs, and train transport
  88. 97. enabled settlers to enter an environment entirely new and different,
  89. 98. and created the movement we call “settling the west”.
  90. 99. Web 2.0 is the same pattern.
  91. 100. western settlement wasn’t a “thing”, it was an era .
  92. 101. Web 2.0 also isn’t a “thing”, but a t ime.
  93. 102. Web 2.0 is the time when many events,
  94. 103. both technological and social
  95. 104. have converged to create apparently boundless opportunity.
  96. 105. “ But if it’s not a thing, why all the excitement?”
  97. 106. let’s look at how people think,
  98. 107. how about a graph?
  99. 108. TIME
  100. 109. TIME now we need something on this graph
  101. 110. what we can do what we can’t do TIME
  102. 111. what we can do what we can’t do TIME “ our expectations”
  103. 112. “ inflections in expectation”
  104. 113. as our expectations exceed what a product can deliver, we lower our expectations over time
  105. 114. of course, products are always improving
  106. 115. and our expectations rise again
  107. 116. when we see “ something new”
  108. 117. these are “ inflections of expectation”
  109. 118. of course, in our excitement, we forget this portion of the graph
  110. 119. so when we see this part of the graph
  111. 120. we go here
  112. 121. but remember this part of the pattern?
  113. 122. because we’re really going here
  114. 123. ? and what’s this space here?
  115. 124. the bubble
  116. 125. “ Are you telling me that, Web 2.0 is all fluff and bubble then?”
  117. 126. no, absolutely not,
  118. 127. but who is telling you it is important?
  119. 128. marketers and pundits?
  120. 129. bloggers?
  121. 130. analysts?
  122. 131. beware of anyone who claims they can “do” Web 2.0 for your business.
  123. 132. the rules of business have not changed
  124. 133. the most important thing you can do is serve your customers well.
  125. 134. if you feel you must embrace Web 2.0,
  126. 135. approach each new technology as you would any other for your business
  127. 136. carefully consider the reasons for implementing it,
  128. 137. and the value payback.
  129. 138. however, it may be likely that you do not have the expertise
  130. 139. to know what is “best” for your customers in this regard.
  131. 140. “ And how will I know what is best for my customers?”
  132. 141. here are two simple things you can do to make your customers love you:
  133. 142. (get our your pencils)
  134. 143. 1 ) give them what they need
  135. 144. 2 ) don’t steal from them
  136. 145. to understand what they need,
  137. 146. let’s look at some similar patterns:
  138. 147. Tom Standage
  139. 149. 200 years ago
  140. 151. Claude & Ignace Chappe
  141. 152. built a network
  142. 153. transmitting
  143. 154. military & governmental information
  144. 155. their system
  145. 156. optical telegraph
  146. 157. (556 nodes)
  147. 158. (4,800 kilometres)
  148. 159. swinging arms
  149. 161. “ telegraph”
  150. 162. “ far writer”
  151. 163. fast!
  152. 164. indeed,
  153. 165. fast-er
  154. 167. s l o w
  155. 168. 2 words per minute.
  156. 169. the concept behind optical telegraphy
  157. 170. laid the groundwork
  158. 172. Samuel Morse ... .- -- ..- . .-.. / -- --- .-. ... .
  159. 173. initially used by railway lines & government
  160. 174. also commercialized
  161. 175. private entrepreneurs
  162. 176. speculated
  163. 177. business people would be willing to pay
  164. 178. for this rapid communication
  165. 179. so they launched
  166. 180. pay-per-word services
  167. 181. [only] businesses
  168. 182. high cost per message
  169. 183. nonetheless:
  170. 184. expanded
  171. 185. interesting thing happened:
  172. 186. some people
  173. 187. free,
  174. 188. un-metered access:
  175. 189. the operators.
  176. 190. young,
  177. 191. talented,
  178. 192. very bored.
  179. 193. when you don’t have to pay…
  180. 194. jokes
  181. 195. stories
  182. 197. friends, court, marry.
  183. 198. we start to see a progression of human priorities:
  184. 199. (1) support your military
  185. 200. (11) make a dollar
  186. 201. (111) “chat”
  187. 202. we see the same pattern,
  188. 203. with telegraph’s successor:
  189. 204. radio
  190. 205. rich history in the story of radio,
  191. 206. but we’ll start at:
  192. 207. 1944
  193. 208. Motorola “Handie Talkie”
  194. 209. infantry field radio
  195. 211. after the war,
  196. 212. business saw the value of wireless connectivity
  197. 213. commercialized the technology
  198. 214. built a cellular network
  199. 215. 1984
  200. 216. Motorola “ DynaTAC” 8 000 X
  201. 217. “ the brick”
  202. 218. pitched at the business market,
  203. 219. pretty much its only market,
  204. 220. with a $4000 price tag
  205. 221. 21 years later…
  206. 222. Motorola RAZR
  207. 223. in pink, commonly sported by adolescent girls
  208. 224. for almost entirely social purposes.
  209. 225. if we trace the priorities again,
  210. 226. 1. fear money initially funds a technology
  211. 227. 2. business money expands the network
  212. 228. 3 . the network is adopted for social needs
  213. 229. in simpler terms,
  214. 230. the order of the market’s priorities seem to be:
  215. 231. 1. safety
  216. 232. 2. prosperity
  217. 233. 3. socialization.
  218. 234. luckily, we’ve seen this pattern before
  219. 235. “ Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs”
  220. 236. Abraham Maslow
  221. 237. his paper: “A Theory of Human Motivation”
  222. 238. 1943
  223. 239. model
  224. 240. describes the needs, wants, desires of individuals.
  225. 241. the model itself:
  226. 242. “ levels” or tiers
  227. 243. survival
  228. 244. security
  229. 245. belonging
  230. 246. esteem
  231. 247. enlightenment.
  232. 248. lower levels supersede upper levels
  233. 249. for example:
  234. 250. you wouldn’t want to
  235. 251. be social belonging
  236. 252. security losing your job
  237. 253. similarly,
  238. 254. you probably wouldn’t care
  239. 255. security drop your wallet
  240. 256. survival chased by wolves
  241. 257. the tiered system enforces an “order” to priorities.
  242. 258. markets as a whole,
  243. 259. follow this same hierarchy.
  244. 260. if we look at a market
  245. 263. market == collection of individuals
  246. 264. each individuals’ actions
  247. 265. combine to create
  248. 266. “ market pressure”
  249. 267. markets act like the individuals in that market.
  250. 268. we see the same pattern in the
  251. 269. Internet
  252. 270. first, something everybody can agree upon
  253. 271. Web 0 .0 (ARPANET) defense
  254. 272. protects everybody’s basest level of needs
  255. 273. now that we all feel like we’ll survive,
  256. 274. “ ensure our future, make a buck”
  257. 275. commerce Web 1 .0
  258. 276. Web 1.0 focused on selling things,
  259. 277. because things are easy to count
  260. 278. and therefore easy to prove profit-margins on.
  261. 279. lastly
  262. 280. “ individual needs”
  263. 281. social beings Web 2 .0
  264. 282. “ What I’m hearing, is that I should build a social network?”
  265. 283. yes and no.
  266. 284. actually, please don’t.
  267. 285. there are much better things that you can spend your money on.
  268. 286. highly successful businesses understand this hiearchy
  269. 287. and use it for profit.
  270. 288. remember, these priorities are innate to all humans,
  271. 289. so these motivations apply both online and offline.
  272. 290. for example:
  273. 291. (here’s the audience participation time) (test your global business knowledge)
  274. 292. what thing?
  275. 294. all sell,
  276. 295. not related to their core business?
  277. 297. hot dogs.
  278. 298. why?
  279. 299. because they want you to participate
  280. 300. commerce shop
  281. 301. but as a human you still need to fulfil
  282. 302. survival eat
  283. 303. two at once:
  284. 304. survival eat commerce shop
  285. 305. “ profit!”
  286. 307. “ rounding error”
  287. 309. considering human needs
  288. 310. increases business
  289. 311. by enabling their users
  290. 312. to focus on their product.
  291. 313. now that we’ve understand the model
  292. 314. let’s look at:
  293. 315. How to use this model (for fun and profit)
  294. 316. going back to MySpace for a second,
  295. 317. the model helps us frame some “miraculous” things we’ve seen.
  296. 318. while at the Web 2.0 Expo, I overheard:
  297. 319. “ MySpace --- and who would have guessed that would take off? ”
  298. 320. now, for their target market,
  299. 321. putting food on the table and paying the mortgage aren’t the most important things,
  300. 322. so they have a lot of time and energy,
  301. 323. to focus on these two needs,
  302. 324. higher on the pyramid
  303. 325. be social be myself MySpace sweet spot
  304. 326. we’re surprised that teens are drawn to a place where they can:
  305. 327. listen to music
  306. 328. talk loudly
  307. 329. and express themselves without parental supervision?
  308. 330. we had MySpace before,
  309. 331. but it was called “the ice cream parlor”
  310. 332. or the arcade,
  311. 333. or “down by the river”
  312. 334. or the hayloft .
  313. 335. even as adults, we seek places where we can
  314. 336. talk loudly, listen to music, and possibly act like a fool
  315. 337. we call this “ the pub”
  316. 338. if you don’t believe in the possibilities of this business model,
  317. 339. consider the “ Ye Old Trip to Jerusalem”
  318. 341. since 1189.
  319. 342. I encourage you to look beyond
  320. 343. how you currently serve your public
  321. 344. and deliver on products which address their whole human,
  322. 345. above and below the commerce levels if possible.
  323. 346. I should warn you,
  324. 347. the pyramid has strong influences that are not to be ignored
  325. 348. at even the most fundamental product level
  326. 349. an example from eBay’s own experience
  327. 350. “ eBay Blogs”
  328. 351. we thought we were building:
  329. 352. esteem expression be myself
  330. 353. so let’s look at a typical blog entry from last night:
  331. 354. “ nighty nite all >*o*< sweet dreams my friends i have to work early so i prob wont see yas tomorrow morn. have a good night ”
  332. 355. >*o*<
  333. 356. and the “ blog comments” on that entry?
  334. 357. <ul><li>good night </li></ul><ul><li>SWEET DREAMS </li></ul><ul><li>Nite - new banner - nice - sleep well dear - catch ya sometime tomorrow. </li></ul><ul><li>Good night dd. Have a nice day at work tomorrow. </li></ul><ul><li>Have a good night! </li></ul><ul><li>Nite! </li></ul><ul><li>Good Night </li></ul>
  335. 358. [not] eBay Blogs
  336. 359. eBay chat.
  337. 360. eBay chat. a very terrible
  338. 361. unfulfilled
  339. 362. belonging social beings be social
  340. 363. new tool?
  341. 364. my needs.
  342. 365. If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
  343. 366. we gave them a screwdriver,
  344. 367. which is found to be a poor hammer
  345. 368. (but that’s not going to stop anybody from pounding nails with it).
  346. 369. “ But didn’t you say something about not stealing?”
  347. 370. yes.
  348. 371. don’t steal,
  349. 372. nobody likes a thief,
  350. 373. and they will only put up with it as long as they have no alternative.
  351. 374. but all businesses “steal”,
  352. 375. so the business that steals the least, wins .
  353. 376. in the hierarchy model,
  354. 377. as tiers increase, expendable resources decrease
  355. 378. because total resources are finite.
  356. 379. illustration
  357. 381. ten below zero
  358. 382. eleven at night
  359. 383. $65
  360. 384. hotel: $55 dinner: $5 the movie channel: $10
  361. 385. survival security belonging esteem enlightenment $55 + $5 for lodging and food
  362. 386. survival security belonging esteem enlightenment all our money spent right here
  363. 387. the more energy our members waste in finding the basics,
  364. 388. such as
  365. 389. help
  366. 390. search
  367. 391. login
  368. 392. submit
  369. 393. and “ contact us ”,
  370. 394. the less energy they have to actually enjoy your product.
  371. 395. and if you don’t want them spending their precious time there
  372. 396. make it so they never need to ask for help.
  373. 397. because making them work to use your site
  374. 398. is stealing their time
  375. 399. and flushing it down the toilet.
  376. 400. they don’t like their time wasted,
  377. 401. and it’s not making you any money.
  378. 402. make products that delight and empower your users.
  379. 403. your members will continue to be humans
  380. 404. and human needs aren’t changing
  381. 405. so success will go to the products,
  382. 406. that fulfills the most needs,
  383. 407. with the least amount of waste
  384. 408. waste =
  385. 409. “ anything which doesn’t delight or empower your users ”
  386. 410. because anything else, you’re stealing their time
  387. 411. you can only get by stealing for so long.
  388. 412. now that I’ve given you some new tools,
  389. 413. lets sum this all up by applying some of them
  390. 414. New Ways of Looking at the World
  391. 415. we should stop being fascinated
  392. 416. that our phones and cars and toilets are ‘internet enabled’
  393. 417. just like you’d never say,
  394. 418. OMG, UR DISHWASHER RUNZ on ELECTR1CITY ??!!!
  395. 419. the most successful of us
  396. 420. will stop looking at the internet as Web X.Y ,
  397. 421. but as a tool to help us cope with our inability
  398. 422. to store, process, retrieve and transmit massive amounts of information
  399. 423. with other humans not near me.
  400. 424. without amplification, the human voice carries maybe 100 meters,
  401. 425. since the dawn of time, humans have been looking for way to amplify that voice
  402. 426. and the internet is the latest (fastest) version of that desire yet.
  403. 427. but it is fundamentally no different than the letter, telephone or telegraph.
  404. 428. another lesson from the pyramid,
  405. 429. what about the social aspect of what you’re doing?
  406. 430. imagine reading a book, but you couldn’t tell your friends about it
  407. 431. imagine buying a house, but you couldn’t throw a party?
  408. 432. the pyramid shows us that we are fundamentally social creatures
  409. 433. the internet has the capability to provide rich interaction
  410. 434. and where it makes sense, interweaving that social nature can dramatically add to our experience
  411. 435. so here’s the tricky part:
  412. 436. building a product is like building a house
  413. 438. water and electricity are useful things to nearly everybody
  414. 440. the skill lies in knowing what rooms need what
  415. 443. and the last one (which is really more of a warning)
  416. 444. it is important to temper hype with clear thinking,
  417. 445. there will be many ill-conceived uses of recently “discovered” aspects of computing
  418. 446. on the web, I’m talking about discoveries such as: AJAX social networking community filtering badges widgets RSS viral apps
  419. 447. just because something works in one place, doesn’t mean it has a use every place
  420. 448. consider an advertisement from 1909 during a similar “2.0” time of history:
  421. 449. For weakness in men and women, personal exhaustion bringing back lost strength and power, over brain work, vitality, impotency, rheumatism, lame back, railroad back, insomnia, melancholia, kidney disorder, dyspepsia, disorders of the liver, poor circulation, weak heart action and almost every known disease and weakness . The constant soothing alternating electric current is ever at work touching the weak spots, building up the system, stimulating the circulation. ALL THAT ELECTRICITY WILL DO FOR YOU WILL BE RECEIVED!
  422. 451. you know all about “ usability studies”
  423. 452. but what about “ feasibility studies”?
  424. 453. I’m sure the enhancement is technically feasible
  425. 454. but will it survive in the market?
  426. 455. McDonald’s knows how to setup a “restaurant”
  427. 456. but before they build one,
  428. 457. they study the streets, the demographics, the foot traffic, and their competitors.
  429. 458. they do this because installing a business is a costly experiment,
  430. 459. so they need it to stick around for awhile.
  431. 460. ask yourself,
  432. 461. am I investing in something that will last in the long run?
  433. 462. luckily, there is an easy way to think of these things:
  434. 463. “ does this make me laugh or help me out?”
  435. 464. “ does this product directly address a basic human desire?”
  436. 465. “ would this be useful to a villager in a developing nation?”
  437. 466. to build tools, services and experiences which empower and delight your users and employees
  438. 467. not only makes sense,
  439. 468. it’s good for business.
  440. 469. I believe:
  441. 470. in “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness…”
  442. 471. and together,
  443. 472. we can bring that spirit to everyone.
  444. 473. The End.
  445. 474. Rolf Skyberg [email_address] http://rolfskyberg.wordpress.com
  446. 475. Thank you to: Lawrence Lessig, for the presentation style Dick Hardt, for the inspiration Inkscape, for a wonderful vector graphics tool Rebecca Rijnders for inviting me EMERCE for e.day and you, (yes you), for coming
  447. 476. Slide #
  448. 477. Rolf Skyberg [email_address] http://rolfskyberg.wordpress.com

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