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Web2.0: Why we got here and what's next
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Web2.0: Why we got here and what's next



What is Web 2.0 and why are we so excited by it? How should it affect business decisions?

What is Web 2.0 and why are we so excited by it? How should it affect business decisions?



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  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
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  • Interesting slide show - but I don't think it covers 'What's Next'. Reading the transcript below - gives you just about everything in the presentation - for those with dial up.<br /><br/>
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  • great presentation, but hell to go through if one doesn't have enough bandwidth. In the end the turning cog wheel in the center drives one nuts and detracts from the pace and message. Nevertheless, ultimately worth it. Thanks
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  • I also believe that this was worth enduring. Ironically, I believe that since we are all at the more sophisticated level on the hierarchy, that we should have been dealt this via Slideshare's Slidecast format instead.
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  • I cant believe Ive just followed a 477 slide presentation and got value from it. Thanks.
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Web2.0: Why we got here and what's next Web2.0: Why we got here and what's next Presentation Transcript

  • Web 2.0: Why we got here, and what’s next Rolf Skyberg [email_address] Disruptive Innovator for eBay, Inc. Wednesday, May 27, 2009
  • my job title at eBay is both fun, and confusing
  • the role of “Disruptive Innovator”
  • is part Product Manager, part evangelist,
  • sometimes developer,
  • and always watcher .
  • my main job is to inspire and excite individuals both inside and outside eBay
  • by any means necessary.
  • a little history about myself:
  • my University major was business,
  • but I also minored in theatre
  • and later pursued graduate studies in System Science
  • “ System Science” is the study of complex interactions over time,
  • including topics like: computer networks, economics, traffic flow and human actions.
  • this morning I will be talking about:
  • people,
  • ploughs,
  • power,
  • horses,
  • dishwashers,
  • France,
  • bears,
  • beers,
  • windmills,
  • and maybe the internet.
  • (actually, the bears are just a joke)
  • this is in fact, a bear-free presentation.
  • and because there are no bears,
  • let’s start with windmills .
  • when I say “windmill”,
  • most people think about:
  • but I’m not talking about Dutch windmills
  • I’m talking about:
  • much as Dutch windmills opened up new land
  • by removing water,
  • American windmills were a critical part of settling the “ Great American Desert ”
  • by adding water.
  • “ Oh, you’ve never heard of the Great American Desert? ”
  • much of the American west was purchased from France
  • by President Jefferson in 1803 as part of the Louisiana Purchase,
  • essentially sight-unseen.
  • ?
  • seeking to explore this land and encourage settlement,
  • the federal government dispatched a mission of exploration in 1819
  • which surveyed the land for a total of 4 years.
  • in 1821, Stephen Long published journals including this map:
  • on which he added the cautionary text:
  • “ frequented by roving bands of indians who have no fixed place of residence, but roam from place to place in search of game ”
  • his annotation was associated with an area he called the “ Great Desert”
  • it wasn’t a desert like the Sahara desert,
  • but it was extremely harsh.
  • for the first settlers
  • coming from the wet, hilly Atlantic coast,
  • lands West of the Mississippi
  • appeared to be hostile to settlement and farming.
  • Long’s description discouraged settlers
  • and the reality of what was in the West didn’t help either:
  • no trees,
  • no water,
  • soil you couldn’t plow because of thick native grasses,
  • and far away from civilization and transportation.
  • the first issue was solved by a technical pioneer:
  • the ploughs designed for the sandy soil of the East
  • were entirely useless in the thick clay soil of the West,
  • so he invented (and became rich from)
  • the steel plough
  • but even though you could plough the soil,
  • you still couldn’t grow anything
  • because there wasn’t enough rain.
  • Daniel Halladay solved this problem in 1854
  • with his autonomous wind-pump
  • these pumps tapped a huge underground water source
  • just a hundred meters below ground
  • called the “Ogallala Aquifer”.
  • prospects started looking better,
  • but the West was still a desolate, lonely place.
  • even if you could grow enough grain to sell at a market, there was no way to get it there
  • the final step in settling the west came in the form
  • of a trans-continental railroad
  • completed in 1873, the railroad linked farms with markets
  • finally making it possible for families to earn a living.
  • this area is now known as The Great Plains,
  • and is one of the most productive areas of farmland in the world.
  • just a hundred meters below ground.
  • European settlement of the west
  • happened only because it was enabled by a series of technologies.
  • working together, windmills, steel ploughs, and train transport
  • enabled settlers to enter an environment entirely new and different,
  • and created the movement we call “settling the west”.
  • Web 2.0 is the same pattern.
  • western settlement wasn’t a “thing”, it was an era .
  • Web 2.0 also isn’t a “thing”, but a t ime.
  • Web 2.0 is the time when many events,
  • both technological and social
  • have converged to create apparently boundless opportunity.
  • “ But if it’s not a thing, why all the excitement?”
  • let’s look at how people think,
  • how about a graph?
  • TIME
  • TIME now we need something on this graph
  • what we can do what we can’t do TIME
  • what we can do what we can’t do TIME “ our expectations”
  • “ inflections in expectation”
  • as our expectations exceed what a product can deliver, we lower our expectations over time
  • of course, products are always improving
  • and our expectations rise again
  • when we see “ something new”
  • these are “ inflections of expectation”
  • of course, in our excitement, we forget this portion of the graph
  • so when we see this part of the graph
  • we go here
  • but remember this part of the pattern?
  • because we’re really going here
  • ? and what’s this space here?
  • the bubble
  • “ Are you telling me that, Web 2.0 is all fluff and bubble then?”
  • no, absolutely not,
  • but who is telling you it is important?
  • marketers and pundits?
  • bloggers?
  • analysts?
  • beware of anyone who claims they can “do” Web 2.0 for your business.
  • the rules of business have not changed
  • the most important thing you can do is serve your customers well.
  • if you feel you must embrace Web 2.0,
  • approach each new technology as you would any other for your business
  • carefully consider the reasons for implementing it,
  • and the value payback.
  • however, it may be likely that you do not have the expertise
  • to know what is “best” for your customers in this regard.
  • “ And how will I know what is best for my customers?”
  • here are two simple things you can do to make your customers love you:
  • (get our your pencils)
  • 1 ) give them what they need
  • 2 ) don’t steal from them
  • to understand what they need,
  • let’s look at some similar patterns:
  • Tom Standage
  • 200 years ago
  • Claude & Ignace Chappe
  • built a network
  • transmitting
  • military & governmental information
  • their system
  • optical telegraph
  • (556 nodes)
  • (4,800 kilometres)
  • swinging arms
  • “ telegraph”
  • “ far writer”
  • fast!
  • indeed,
  • fast-er
  • s l o w
  • 2 words per minute.
  • the concept behind optical telegraphy
  • laid the groundwork
  • Samuel Morse ... .- -- ..- . .-.. / -- --- .-. ... .
  • initially used by railway lines & government
  • also commercialized
  • private entrepreneurs
  • speculated
  • business people would be willing to pay
  • for this rapid communication
  • so they launched
  • pay-per-word services
  • [only] businesses
  • high cost per message
  • nonetheless:
  • expanded
  • interesting thing happened:
  • some people
  • free,
  • un-metered access:
  • the operators.
  • young,
  • talented,
  • very bored.
  • when you don’t have to pay…
  • jokes
  • stories
  • friends, court, marry.
  • we start to see a progression of human priorities:
  • (1) support your military
  • (11) make a dollar
  • (111) “chat”
  • we see the same pattern,
  • with telegraph’s successor:
  • radio
  • rich history in the story of radio,
  • but we’ll start at:
  • 1944
  • Motorola “Handie Talkie”
  • infantry field radio
  • after the war,
  • business saw the value of wireless connectivity
  • commercialized the technology
  • built a cellular network
  • 1984
  • Motorola “ DynaTAC” 8 000 X
  • “ the brick”
  • pitched at the business market,
  • pretty much its only market,
  • with a $4000 price tag
  • 21 years later…
  • Motorola RAZR
  • in pink, commonly sported by adolescent girls
  • for almost entirely social purposes.
  • if we trace the priorities again,
  • 1. fear money initially funds a technology
  • 2. business money expands the network
  • 3 . the network is adopted for social needs
  • in simpler terms,
  • the order of the market’s priorities seem to be:
  • 1. safety
  • 2. prosperity
  • 3. socialization.
  • luckily, we’ve seen this pattern before
  • “ Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs”
  • Abraham Maslow
  • his paper: “A Theory of Human Motivation”
  • 1943
  • model
  • describes the needs, wants, desires of individuals.
  • the model itself:
  • “ levels” or tiers
  • survival
  • security
  • belonging
  • esteem
  • enlightenment.
  • lower levels supersede upper levels
  • for example:
  • you wouldn’t want to
  • be social belonging
  • security losing your job
  • similarly,
  • you probably wouldn’t care
  • security drop your wallet
  • survival chased by wolves
  • the tiered system enforces an “order” to priorities.
  • markets as a whole,
  • follow this same hierarchy.
  • if we look at a market
  • market == collection of individuals
  • each individuals’ actions
  • combine to create
  • “ market pressure”
  • markets act like the individuals in that market.
  • we see the same pattern in the
  • Internet
  • first, something everybody can agree upon
  • Web 0 .0 (ARPANET) defense
  • protects everybody’s basest level of needs
  • now that we all feel like we’ll survive,
  • “ ensure our future, make a buck”
  • commerce Web 1 .0
  • Web 1.0 focused on selling things,
  • because things are easy to count
  • and therefore easy to prove profit-margins on.
  • lastly
  • “ individual needs”
  • social beings Web 2 .0
  • “ What I’m hearing, is that I should build a social network?”
  • yes and no.
  • actually, please don’t.
  • there are much better things that you can spend your money on.
  • highly successful businesses understand this hiearchy
  • and use it for profit.
  • remember, these priorities are innate to all humans,
  • so these motivations apply both online and offline.
  • for example:
  • (here’s the audience participation time) (test your global business knowledge)
  • what thing?
  • all sell,
  • not related to their core business?
  • hot dogs.
  • why?
  • because they want you to participate
  • commerce shop
  • but as a human you still need to fulfil
  • survival eat
  • two at once:
  • survival eat commerce shop
  • “ profit!”
  • “ rounding error”
  • considering human needs
  • increases business
  • by enabling their users
  • to focus on their product.
  • now that we’ve understand the model
  • let’s look at:
  • How to use this model (for fun and profit)
  • going back to MySpace for a second,
  • the model helps us frame some “miraculous” things we’ve seen.
  • while at the Web 2.0 Expo, I overheard:
  • “ MySpace --- and who would have guessed that would take off? ”
  • now, for their target market,
  • putting food on the table and paying the mortgage aren’t the most important things,
  • so they have a lot of time and energy,
  • to focus on these two needs,
  • higher on the pyramid
  • be social be myself MySpace sweet spot
  • we’re surprised that teens are drawn to a place where they can:
  • listen to music
  • talk loudly
  • and express themselves without parental supervision?
  • we had MySpace before,
  • but it was called “the ice cream parlor”
  • or the arcade,
  • or “down by the river”
  • or the hayloft .
  • even as adults, we seek places where we can
  • talk loudly, listen to music, and possibly act like a fool
  • we call this “ the pub”
  • if you don’t believe in the possibilities of this business model,
  • consider the “ Ye Old Trip to Jerusalem”
  • since 1189.
  • I encourage you to look beyond
  • how you currently serve your public
  • and deliver on products which address their whole human,
  • above and below the commerce levels if possible.
  • I should warn you,
  • the pyramid has strong influences that are not to be ignored
  • at even the most fundamental product level
  • an example from eBay’s own experience
  • “ eBay Blogs”
  • we thought we were building:
  • esteem expression be myself
  • so let’s look at a typical blog entry from last night:
  • “ nighty nite all >*o*< sweet dreams my friends i have to work early so i prob wont see yas tomorrow morn. have a good night ”
  • >*o*<
  • and the “ blog comments” on that entry?
    • good night
    • Nite - new banner - nice - sleep well dear - catch ya sometime tomorrow.
    • Good night dd. Have a nice day at work tomorrow.
    • Have a good night!
    • Nite!
    • Good Night
  • [not] eBay Blogs
  • eBay chat.
  • eBay chat. a very terrible
  • unfulfilled
  • belonging social beings be social
  • new tool?
  • my needs.
  • If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
  • we gave them a screwdriver,
  • which is found to be a poor hammer
  • (but that’s not going to stop anybody from pounding nails with it).
  • “ But didn’t you say something about not stealing?”
  • yes.
  • don’t steal,
  • nobody likes a thief,
  • and they will only put up with it as long as they have no alternative.
  • but all businesses “steal”,
  • so the business that steals the least, wins .
  • in the hierarchy model,
  • as tiers increase, expendable resources decrease
  • because total resources are finite.
  • illustration
  • ten below zero
  • eleven at night
  • $65
  • hotel: $55 dinner: $5 the movie channel: $10
  • survival security belonging esteem enlightenment $55 + $5 for lodging and food
  • survival security belonging esteem enlightenment all our money spent right here
  • the more energy our members waste in finding the basics,
  • such as
  • help
  • search
  • login
  • submit
  • and “ contact us ”,
  • the less energy they have to actually enjoy your product.
  • and if you don’t want them spending their precious time there
  • make it so they never need to ask for help.
  • because making them work to use your site
  • is stealing their time
  • and flushing it down the toilet.
  • they don’t like their time wasted,
  • and it’s not making you any money.
  • make products that delight and empower your users.
  • your members will continue to be humans
  • and human needs aren’t changing
  • so success will go to the products,
  • that fulfills the most needs,
  • with the least amount of waste
  • waste =
  • “ anything which doesn’t delight or empower your users ”
  • because anything else, you’re stealing their time
  • you can only get by stealing for so long.
  • now that I’ve given you some new tools,
  • lets sum this all up by applying some of them
  • New Ways of Looking at the World
  • we should stop being fascinated
  • that our phones and cars and toilets are ‘internet enabled’
  • just like you’d never say,
  • the most successful of us
  • will stop looking at the internet as Web X.Y ,
  • but as a tool to help us cope with our inability
  • to store, process, retrieve and transmit massive amounts of information
  • with other humans not near me.
  • without amplification, the human voice carries maybe 100 meters,
  • since the dawn of time, humans have been looking for way to amplify that voice
  • and the internet is the latest (fastest) version of that desire yet.
  • but it is fundamentally no different than the letter, telephone or telegraph.
  • another lesson from the pyramid,
  • what about the social aspect of what you’re doing?
  • imagine reading a book, but you couldn’t tell your friends about it
  • imagine buying a house, but you couldn’t throw a party?
  • the pyramid shows us that we are fundamentally social creatures
  • the internet has the capability to provide rich interaction
  • and where it makes sense, interweaving that social nature can dramatically add to our experience
  • so here’s the tricky part:
  • building a product is like building a house
  • water and electricity are useful things to nearly everybody
  • the skill lies in knowing what rooms need what
  • and the last one (which is really more of a warning)
  • it is important to temper hype with clear thinking,
  • there will be many ill-conceived uses of recently “discovered” aspects of computing
  • on the web, I’m talking about discoveries such as: AJAX social networking community filtering badges widgets RSS viral apps
  • just because something works in one place, doesn’t mean it has a use every place
  • consider an advertisement from 1909 during a similar “2.0” time of history:
  • For weakness in men and women, personal exhaustion bringing back lost strength and power, over brain work, vitality, impotency, rheumatism, lame back, railroad back, insomnia, melancholia, kidney disorder, dyspepsia, disorders of the liver, poor circulation, weak heart action and almost every known disease and weakness . The constant soothing alternating electric current is ever at work touching the weak spots, building up the system, stimulating the circulation. ALL THAT ELECTRICITY WILL DO FOR YOU WILL BE RECEIVED!
  • you know all about “ usability studies”
  • but what about “ feasibility studies”?
  • I’m sure the enhancement is technically feasible
  • but will it survive in the market?
  • McDonald’s knows how to setup a “restaurant”
  • but before they build one,
  • they study the streets, the demographics, the foot traffic, and their competitors.
  • they do this because installing a business is a costly experiment,
  • so they need it to stick around for awhile.
  • ask yourself,
  • am I investing in something that will last in the long run?
  • luckily, there is an easy way to think of these things:
  • “ does this make me laugh or help me out?”
  • “ does this product directly address a basic human desire?”
  • “ would this be useful to a villager in a developing nation?”
  • to build tools, services and experiences which empower and delight your users and employees
  • not only makes sense,
  • it’s good for business.
  • I believe:
  • in “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness…”
  • and together,
  • we can bring that spirit to everyone.
  • The End.
  • Rolf Skyberg [email_address] http://rolfskyberg.wordpress.com
  • Thank you to: Lawrence Lessig, for the presentation style Dick Hardt, for the inspiration Inkscape, for a wonderful vector graphics tool Rebecca Rijnders for inviting me EMERCE for e.day and you, (yes you), for coming
  • Slide #
  • Rolf Skyberg [email_address] http://rolfskyberg.wordpress.com