0
Roland Selmer
roland.selmer@gmail.com
Friday, 13 September 13
How did we get here?
Friday, 13 September 13
10,000 years ago
Formation of neolithic villages
2,000 years ago
Roman empire
20 years ago
The internet
becomes available
...
Connection based Connectionless
•Large monolithic systems
•Point to point circuit switched
communications
•Telephone numbe...
My Phone Number My SIP URI
Now IPV6 LTE networks
+447930511519
Identity becomes portable, transmutable
roland.selmer@gmail...
#1 OTT apps cost operators $13.9bn in lost SMS revenues
atYE11.This total will have risen to $54bn by 2016.
#2 By 2020 we ...
Communications
Service Provider
Utility
Friday, 13 September 13
1. {NETWORKS}
2. IDENTITY
3. CONNECTEDNESS
4. COMMUNICATION(S)
Friday, 13 September 13
The way we currently build
products is linear and
homogenous. Like GSM. Soulmates
Helpmates
Associates
Fun friends
Viber
S...
Social has changed how we communicate
Friday, 13 September 13
Volume
Quality
Time
Everything is commoditised...Communications
Friday, 13 September 13
Behaviors are changing
First Direct
Friday, 13 September 13
Predicting the future and transformation
Friday, 13 September 13
“...it is precisely the telecommunications operators that are in a
position to meet these expectations, based on transpare...
“...the history of every dead and dying 'growth' industry shows a self-
deceiving cycle of bountiful expansion and undetec...
Petroleum Energy
Exhibit: British Petroleum
Friday, 13 September 13
So what business are we in?
Telephone calls ?
Comms
Entertainment
Information
...
Friday, 13 September 13
Laplaces Demon "We may regard the present state of the
universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future.An
i...
Willful Ignorance...when it all goes wrong
•Financial instruments e.g. CDO’s grouped into pools
•Pool X is a collection of...
Willful ignorance
US Smartphone market
Friday, 13 September 13
PC
F+t
e u OutputInput
-
+
Feedback and delay in dynamic systems
Business Unit
Customers
Observations & insights
Friday, 1...
PRODUCT VS CUSTOMER ORIENTATED
Friday, 13 September 13
"How small? How simple?
We advise startups to launch when they've added a quantum of
utility: when there is at least some ...
•Connectors, are the people in a community who know large
numbers of people and who are in the habit of making introductio...
CULTURAL STRATEGY
Friday, 13 September 13
Crossing the cultural chasm
•Bill Bowerman tinkered with shoes. Phil Knight was the athlete
•Initial strategy was to build...
Cultural trickle down
•Started in Seattle by 3 coffee aficionados wanting to share
artisanal cosmopolitan coffee subculture...
Cultural CapitalEconomic Capital
SocialClassEconomic trickle down Cultural trickle down
Cultural Capital
Economic
Elite
Cu...
CHANGINGTHE WAYYOU WORK
Friday, 13 September 13
The Concept Car Paradigm
Friday, 13 September 13
To earn the right to call itself a couture house and to use the term
haute couture in its advertising and any other way, m...
CULTURE
Friday, 13 September 13
Information
Decision
Rights
Motivators Structure
The Secrets to Successful Strategy Execution
by Gary L. Neilson, Karla L....
A polemic is a contentious argument that is intended to establish
the truth of a specific understanding and the falsity of ...
Personal mastery – create an environment that encourages personal and
organisational goals to be developed and realised in...
SO WHAT SHOULDYOU DO?
Friday, 13 September 13
• Reduce the friction between business units through managing
knowledge and insight
• Immerse yourselves in your customers...
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Future communications strategy

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Transcript of "Future communications strategy"

  1. 1. Roland Selmer roland.selmer@gmail.com Friday, 13 September 13
  2. 2. How did we get here? Friday, 13 September 13
  3. 3. 10,000 years ago Formation of neolithic villages 2,000 years ago Roman empire 20 years ago The internet becomes available Today grunting speech drawings writing GSM email ... IM Text Mobile Social Blogs ... A quick history lesson Friday, 13 September 13
  4. 4. Connection based Connectionless •Large monolithic systems •Point to point circuit switched communications •Telephone numbers •Distributed systems •Fully meshed all IP networks •IP addresses (SIP URI’s) The external environment changes Friday, 13 September 13
  5. 5. My Phone Number My SIP URI Now IPV6 LTE networks +447930511519 Identity becomes portable, transmutable roland.selmer@gmail.com Friday, 13 September 13
  6. 6. #1 OTT apps cost operators $13.9bn in lost SMS revenues atYE11.This total will have risen to $54bn by 2016. #2 By 2020 we expect OTTVoIP will have cost the global telecoms industry $73bn in lost revenues. Source: Ovum Friday, 13 September 13
  7. 7. Communications Service Provider Utility Friday, 13 September 13
  8. 8. 1. {NETWORKS} 2. IDENTITY 3. CONNECTEDNESS 4. COMMUNICATION(S) Friday, 13 September 13
  9. 9. The way we currently build products is linear and homogenous. Like GSM. Soulmates Helpmates Associates Fun friends Viber Skype WhatsApp But people communicate in a non linear fashion... speaking to different audiences... using different tools. Paul Adams Friday, 13 September 13
  10. 10. Social has changed how we communicate Friday, 13 September 13
  11. 11. Volume Quality Time Everything is commoditised...Communications Friday, 13 September 13
  12. 12. Behaviors are changing First Direct Friday, 13 September 13
  13. 13. Predicting the future and transformation Friday, 13 September 13
  14. 14. “...it is precisely the telecommunications operators that are in a position to meet these expectations, based on transparency and non-discrimination in the context of the new ecosystem...” COOTelefónica Friday, 13 September 13
  15. 15. “...the history of every dead and dying 'growth' industry shows a self- deceiving cycle of bountiful expansion and undetected decay...” “...a score of non-utility companies are well advanced toward developing a powerful chemical fuel cell, which could sit in some hidden closet of every home silently ticking off electric power...” Theodore Levitt Friday, 13 September 13
  16. 16. Petroleum Energy Exhibit: British Petroleum Friday, 13 September 13
  17. 17. So what business are we in? Telephone calls ? Comms Entertainment Information ... Friday, 13 September 13
  18. 18. Laplaces Demon "We may regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future.An intellect which at a certain moment would know all forces that set nature in motion, and all positions of all items of which nature is composed ... for such an intellect nothing would be uncertain and the future just like the past would be present before its eyes." “The more precisely the position is determined, the less precisely the momentum is known in this instant, and vice versa.” Heisenberg Laplace’s Demon Friday, 13 September 13
  19. 19. Willful Ignorance...when it all goes wrong •Financial instruments e.g. CDO’s grouped into pools •Pool X is a collection of morgates with varied ratings A, B+ etc. •Bet is that all default (least probable, safest bet) •The ratings agencies assumed that mortgage defaults are not correlated and rate Pool X AAA Case Study:The 2008 financial crisis Friday, 13 September 13
  20. 20. Willful ignorance US Smartphone market Friday, 13 September 13
  21. 21. PC F+t e u OutputInput - + Feedback and delay in dynamic systems Business Unit Customers Observations & insights Friday, 13 September 13
  22. 22. PRODUCT VS CUSTOMER ORIENTATED Friday, 13 September 13
  23. 23. "How small? How simple? We advise startups to launch when they've added a quantum of utility: when there is at least some set of users who would be excited to hear about it, because they can now do something they couldn't do before. " Paul Graham,Y-Combinator Friday, 13 September 13
  24. 24. •Connectors, are the people in a community who know large numbers of people and who are in the habit of making introductions. •Mavens are "information specialists", or "people we rely upon to connect us with new information." •Salesmen are "persuaders", charismatic people with powerful negotiation skills.They tend to have an indefinable trait that goes beyond what they say The law of the few Malcom Gladwell Friday, 13 September 13
  25. 25. CULTURAL STRATEGY Friday, 13 September 13
  26. 26. Crossing the cultural chasm •Bill Bowerman tinkered with shoes. Phil Knight was the athlete •Initial strategy was to build better mousetraps (innovation through technology) •Appealed to performance athletes; Failed to ignite mass market •Social disruption allowed them to leap the cultural chasm •Combative solo willpower became the innovation ideology (‘Just do it’) •They go back to building better mousetraps and fail (casual trainers) Case Study: Nike Douglas Holt Friday, 13 September 13
  27. 27. Cultural trickle down •Started in Seattle by 3 coffee aficionados wanting to share artisanal cosmopolitan coffee subculture •Go to the Bay area and immerse themselves in the art •Howard Shultz comes along and immediately recognizes the opportunity to scale •Buys out the 3 and the Starbucks name and launches a few more artisanal stores but fail •Launches more culturally accessible versions (e.g. latte’s) packed in artisan sophistication codes (grande/venti, Ethiopian blends) Case Study: Starbucks Friday, 13 September 13
  28. 28. Cultural CapitalEconomic Capital SocialClassEconomic trickle down Cultural trickle down Cultural Capital Economic Elite Cultural Elite Friday, 13 September 13
  29. 29. CHANGINGTHE WAYYOU WORK Friday, 13 September 13
  30. 30. The Concept Car Paradigm Friday, 13 September 13
  31. 31. To earn the right to call itself a couture house and to use the term haute couture in its advertising and any other way, members of the Chambre syndicale de la haute couture must follow these rules: • Design made-to-order for private clients • Have a workshop (atelier) in Paris that employs at least fifteen people full-time • Must have twenty full-time technical people in at least one atelier • Each season, present a collection to the Paris press Rules of engagement Friday, 13 September 13
  32. 32. CULTURE Friday, 13 September 13
  33. 33. Information Decision Rights Motivators Structure The Secrets to Successful Strategy Execution by Gary L. Neilson, Karla L. Martin, and Elizabeth Powers, HBR 2008 26,0000 people in 31 companies #1 Everyone has a good idea of the decisions and actions for which he or she is responsible #2 Important information gets disseminated quickly #3 Once made, decisions rarely get second guessed Friday, 13 September 13
  34. 34. A polemic is a contentious argument that is intended to establish the truth of a specific understanding and the falsity of the contrary position. Polemics are mostly seen in arguments about very controversial topics. Communication Friday, 13 September 13
  35. 35. Personal mastery – create an environment that encourages personal and organisational goals to be developed and realised in partnership Mental models – know that a person’s 'internal' picture of their environment will shape their decisions and behaviour Shared vision – build a sense of group commitment by developing shared images of the future Team learning – transform conversational and collective thinking skills, so that a group’s capacity to reliably develop intelligence and ability is greater than the sum of its individual member's talents System thinking – develop the ability to see the 'big picture' within an organisation and understand how changes in one area affect the whole system. Towards a learning organisation Peter Senge Friday, 13 September 13
  36. 36. SO WHAT SHOULDYOU DO? Friday, 13 September 13
  37. 37. • Reduce the friction between business units through managing knowledge and insight • Immerse yourselves in your customers’ culture • Satisfy customer needs by delivering truly useful products and great customer experiences (this is hard) • Move from a product focus to a customer focus • Be clear on the problem you are trying to solve • Solidify your identity and speak a common language • Encourage learning organisational behaviours Friday, 13 September 13
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