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Rocks And Whirlpools Bank Strategy 2010 V 2

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  • 1. Directors’ Assembly March 9, 2010 Between Rocks and Whirlpools: Bank Strategy 2010
  • 2. Required Disclosures The following information is for informational purposes only and was prepared from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data. The views or opinions expressed in this material are solely those of the speaker/author and do not necessarily represent those of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC. Janney Montgomery Scott LLC is a broker-dealer registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and member NYSE, FINRA, and SIPC. 2
  • 3. Speaker Credentials: Roger G. Powell Native of Fayetteville Experience Former Scoutmaster, Troop 17, Christ Investment Banking Janney Montgomery Scott (2008 - ) Church, Charlotte  Banks / Thrifts Alex. Brown & Sons1 (1990-1999) Interests: family,  Mortgage Companies American history, antique maps,  Credit Card conservation and  Issuers outdoor activities  Processors  Commercial Finance Academic Investment Research Alex. Brown & Sons (1983-1990)  Banks / Thrifts The Powell Group (1972-1976)  Mortgage Cos B.A. Economics 1971 Davidson College, Davidson, NC  Credit Card Cos  Asset Managers Certificate, Advanced North Carolina School of Banking, Corporate Development / Deutsche Bank AG2 (2000-2007) Management Program Strategic Planning United Carolina Bancshares (1976 – 1982) Chapel Hill, NC 1978 1 Andsuccessors: BT Alex. Brown and Deutsche Bank Securities d/b/a Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown 2 Global Private Client Group and Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown, a business unit of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 3
  • 4. Rocks and whirlpools: the sailor’s fear… Adm. Shovel’s fleet on the Rocks of Scilly, 1707 National Maritime Museum Picture Library, Greewich, England 4
  • 5. Rocks and whirlpools… Adm. Shovel’s fleet on the Rocks of Scilly, 1707  Admiral Cloudsley Shovel – a 26 year veteran of the most advanced and powerful naval power of the time – lost his flagship, his life and ~2,000 sailors and marines along with a large part of his fleet on the Scilly Isles in 1707.  He knew the islands were there – they are well known to English, Irish and Cornish sailors – off of Cornwall at the entry of the Irish sea.  He did not know where he was and an storm drove the fleet upon the rocks.  This disaster, the greatest in the history of the British fleet, incited the Lords of the Admiralty to offer a prize for the maker of an accurate chronograph in order that navigators could accurately compute their longitude.  As a banker you know the rocks in your course – the known risks of the business. You must always know where you are relative to those risks by using the best techniques of navigation. Do not let a storm throw you upon t he rocks. 5
  • 6. Rocks and whirlpools… Maelstrom of Lofoten, Norway New-York Magazine; or, Literary Repository Of the celebrated WHIRLPOOL called the MAELSTROM on the Coast of Norway, Vol. II No. XII Dec 1791 6
  • 7. Rocks and whirlpools… Maelstrom of Lofoten, Norway  Whirlpools rise from action of tide and wind, generally in narrow channels.  The most famous is off the coast of Norway and was named ‘Maelstrom’ by Dutch sailors.  A small vessel can be destroyed by its action.  To avoid a whirlpool requires adquate flotation and power to avoid its force.  The tide of regulatory vigor has set with full force; the wind of the economy has blown Force 5.  Capital is a bank’s flotation; earnings is its power. It takes both to avoid the vortex of the Maelstrom. 7
  • 8. Goal: avoid the known risks; be able to survive the unknown.  Rocks  You know where they are.  Where are you?  Can you be blown upon them?  Whirlpools  Arise with winds of regulation and economic tides; you will not see them until you are upon them.  Are you large enough to survive?  Do you have enough flotation, i.e. capital?  Can you power, i.e. earn, through them? 8
  • 9. For 2010 Strategy cycle: focus on critical themes  Position  versus changing competition  relative to your balance sheet risks  Capital  to survive  to thrive  to earn  Control  of operations and risk position  of message and information  of future 9
  • 10. Position: versus competitors  Secular  Banks lose share to capital markets  Consolidation creates highly competitive markets  Capital markets pricing and structure degrade overall bank pricing  Portfolio mix responds to disintermediation of cards, cars and mortgages  Cyclical  Risk cycle takes away momentum  risk realization exceeds trend after a decade below-trend  Asset quality and capital issues distract management  Competitive banks have opportunity  Regulators as referees 10
  • 11. Position: versus competitors  Banks lose share to capital markets Shifting Shares of Major Non-Bank Players in Credit Provision [Ex cludes Credit Market Assets Held by Federal Reserv e] 100% Percent of Total Credit Market Other Credit Providers Assets Held by Financial Sector Money Market 80% Credit Providers Mutual Funds Insurance Cos. "Private Label" MBS Issuers, Pension Funds 60% and Consumer Credit & Business Credit ABS Issuers 40% Government Sponsored Banks Enterprises (Commercial Banks, Bank Holding Cos., Thrifts, Credit Unions) 20% Source: Figure A1. in Susan Hickok and Daniel E. Nolle, "The U.S. Financial System in 2011: How Will Sufficient Credit Be Provided?" Economics Working Paper 2009-6, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (Nov. 2009). 0% 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 11
  • 12. Position: “A Banking Battleground” Source: New York Times, March 6, 2010 “A Banking Battleground” 12
  • 13. Position: versus competitors  Capital markets pricing and structure degrade spreads 13
  • 14. Position: versus competitors  Portfolio mix responds to Loan Portfolio Composition December 31, 2002 December 31, 2009 Commercial Real Commercial Real Residential Estate Estate 25% 15% Residential 12% 30% Credit Cards 6% Credit Cards 6% Other Consumer 10% Other Consumer 9% Agriculture * Agriculture * 1% 1% Leases Leases 3% Commercial & 2% Commercial & Industrial Construction Construction Industrial All Other Loans 17% 5% All Other Loans 6% 19% 14% 19% * OTS – Supervised Savings Associations do no identify agriculture loans. Source: FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile 4Q:02 and 4Q:09 14
  • 15. Position: versus balance sheet  Below-trend risk realization ends 3.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.50 Average ’84-’09 = 0.84% 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 Mar-84 Mar-85 Mar-86 Mar-87 Mar-88 Mar-89 Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15
  • 16. Position: versus competitors  Asset quality and capital issues distract management Banks Headquartered in NC with NPAs / Assets > 4% at 12/31/09 30 25 24 20 15 10 6 5 1 0 > $10 bn $1 bn - $10 bn < $1 bn Source: SNL Financial. 16
  • 17. Position: cyclical opportunity  Opportunity for active banks to take share by becoming a strategic partner  Historical advantage of commercial banks: information advantage  View of cash flows  Intimate business analysis  Collateral ties  Regulators are the referee  Regulatory vigor animates the board room  Banks become the ‘whipping boy’ of the economy  The savings & loans are no longer the instrument of housing and economic policy  Winners / Losers 17
  • 18. Capital  Secular Trend  Reversal of trend to lower tangible equity levels  Basel II was height of trust in risk models and infinite liquidity  “The new 10% is 12%” and etc.  What ROE translates to premium share price?  Portfolio mix responds to disintermediation of cards, cars and mortgages  Cyclical Factors  Access degraded, especially for ‘micro-cap’ and smaller  Trust preferred reverts to single-issuer – no longer ‘just-in-time’ for all  Internal capital growth depends upon earnings retention 18
  • 19. Capital: seek higher levels  Reversal of trend to lower Tier 1 Risk Based Capital levels 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: SNL Financial. 19
  • 20. Capital: what is good performance?  What ROE translates to premium share price?  Investor attention turns to ‘pre-provision normalized earning rate’  If asset quality is seen to be stable or improving, THEN bank earnings matter  SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF: 21.2% trailing ROE a/o 2/28/2010 (β~1.08)  SPDR KBW Bank ETF: 0.14% trailing ROE (β~2.35)  Investors have abandoned ‘micro-’ and ‘nano-cap’ stocks  Large-cap = $8 billion common equity value and larger  Mid-cap = $1 < $8 billion common equity value  Small-cap = $250 million < $ 1 billion common equity value  Micro-cap = $50 million < $250 million common equity value  Nano-cap = less than $50 million common equity value 20
  • 21. Capital: equity market access degraded  Market access degraded, especially for ‘micro-cap’ and smaller Capital Raising in 2009 By Institution Asset Size ($MM) Senior Debt Subordinated Debt TRUPS TARP Preferred Preferred Common $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 Common Preferred TARP Preferred TRUPS Subordinated Debt Senior Debt <$1.0B 554 126 1,491 16 35 176 $1.0B - $25.0B 11,045 1,412 3,752 405 297 404 $25.0B - $100.0B 6,330 1,800 - 935 1,500 960 >$100.0B 94,331 64,137 30,000 32,984 710 24,775 Source: SNL Financial. 21
  • 22. Capital: growth relies on internal equity retention  Internal capital growth depends upon earnings retention Rate of Growth Supported by Equity Retention at 6% Constant Equity/Assets Dividend Payout Ratio (%) 11.67% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 0.25% 3.75% 3.33% 2.92% 2.50% 2.08% 1.67% 1.25% 0.83% 0.42% 0.50% 7.50% 6.67% 5.83% 5.00% 4.17% 3.33% 2.50% 1.67% 0.83% ROA (%) 0.75% 11.25% 10.00% 8.75% 7.50% 6.25% 5.00% 3.75% 2.50% 1.25% 1.00% 15.00% 13.33% 11.67% 10.00% 8.33% 6.67% 5.00% 3.33% 1.67% 1.25% 18.75% 16.67% 14.58% 12.50% 10.42% 8.33% 6.25% 4.17% 2.08% 1.50% 22.50% 20.00% 17.50% 15.00% 12.50% 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% 2.50% 1.75% 26.25% 23.33% 20.42% 17.50% 14.58% 11.67% 8.75% 5.83% 2.92% Source: Janney Montgomery Scott LLC 22
  • 23. Control  Secular Trend  Tolerances are small in low growth environment  Margins remain under pressure  Fee sources under attack  Internal controls must tighten in response to demanding operating conditions  ‘Big Bank’ risk management systems become ‘best practices’  Cyclical Factors  Regulatory pendulum swings to full vigor  Governance issues take higher profile (SarbOx and fiduciary law developments)  Public relations demand high resolution 23
  • 24. Control: secular factor response  Tolerances are small in low growth environment  You must manage the details all day every day  Margins remain under pressure  Pricing degradation is permanent – find a niche where you can  Fee sources under attack  Populism and consumerism go hand-in-hand and marry in post-recession scenarios  Internal controls must tighten in response to demanding operating conditions  While you must retain marketing momentum  ‘Big Bank’ risk management systems become ‘best practices’  How can you efficiently implement enterprise risk management? 24
  • 25. Control: cyclical factor response  Regulatory pendulum swings to full vigor  Position statements from Washington may not jibe with examination outcomes  Governance issues take higher profile (SarbOx and fiduciary law developments)  Financial statement certification is serious  Prudential management is serious  Public relations demand high resolution  Say only what you mean to say  Be able to defend everything that you say “Never write if you can speak; never speak if you can nod; never nod if you can wink”. -attributed to Martin Michael Lomasney (December 3, 1859 -August 12, 1933), Boston politician “never put it in email” - attributed to Eliot Laurence Spitzer (born June 10, 1959), New York politician 25
  • 26. Rocks and whirlpools… ‘Old Sow’ – the largest whirlpool in the western hemisphere  Between Deer Island, N.B. and Eastport, Me Watch out, you sport kayakers! 26
  • 27. Janney Montgomery Scott Contact Information JMS Contact Telephone Email Location Cliff Booth, Head of FIG Practice 410-583-5992 cbooth@janney.com Baltimore / Philadelphia Ed Losty, Head of Bank Practice 757-564-9737 / 215-665-4491 elosty@janney.com Virginia / Philadelphia Roger Powell, Managing Director 410-583-5993 / 215-665-6687 rpowell@janney.com Baltimore / Philadelphia Jay Junior, Managing Director 215-665-4497 jjunior@janney.com Philadelphia 27

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