Scenario Planning as the Development of Leadership

Rochell R. McWhorter Dorothy E. Porter Susan A. Lynham Texas A&M University Thomas J. Chermack Colorado State University Louis van der Merwe Centre for Innovative Leadership Copyright 2007 McWhorter, Porter, Lynham, Chermack & van der Merwe

H1: Components of the process of Scenario Planning are also components of the process of Leadership Development
H2: LD is an outcome of SP
Evidence to support hypothesis 1?
Evidence to support hypothesis 2?
… Given outcomes to research questions…
… Are the guiding hypotheses reasonable and thus worthy of further inquiry?
Copyright 2007 McWhorter, Porter, Lynham, Chermack & van der Merwe

To understand scenario planning as a process of strategy making and implementation AND of leadership development -- informs more efficient and effective practice of both
To suggest additional outcomes to scenario planning -- not previously explicitly claimed
To confirm scenario planning as an important strategic tool to HRD

Successive rounds of literature review, analysis, synthesis, coding and categorization
Conducted, transcribed, analyzed, coded and themed semi-structured, purposive interviews with two internationally reputed expert practitioner-scholars
… from which we …
Developed a data gathering and coding heuristic based on three theoretical frameworks
A theory of scenario planning
Scenario Impact Questionnaire (SIQ)
OilCo. leadership model
Used further triangulation of data
LD and SP program
Published scenarios

Heuristic In itself supports the hypotheses; Became enabling theoretical framework to gather and categorize further supporting evidence A Synthesis of Three Theoretical Frameworks What We Found… Copyright 2007 McWhorter, Porter, Lynham, Chermack & van der Merwe

Support for H1 (Components of the process of SP are also components of the process of LD):
From literature…
“ spending time discussing a scenario allows managers to see long term interactions…[developing] a language in which they can later communicate among themselves to arrive quickly at decisions” (De Geus, 2002).
From interviews…
“ people learn naturally…that the systemic view of the world is much more useful and … assists you in making hypotheses” (IP1, 2006, p. 4)

Support for H2 ( LD is an outcome of SP) :
From literature…
“ The end result of SP is not about a more accurate picture of tomorrow but better decisions about the future” (Schwartz, 1991)
From interviews…
“ In Art Kleiner’s article he noted that Pierre Wack saw himself…as being the lead wolf in the wolf pack… saying ‘my job is to see and warn the pack of any dangers that are ahead’ ” (IP1, 2006, p. 3)
Applying the heuristic… Copyright 2007 McWhorter, Porter, Lynham, Chermack & van der Merwe

SP as a way to develop strategic leadership capacity and capability
Prudent for organizations to design, develop and implement these processes in an integrated and systemic way.
The construct of “Scenario-based leadership”
SP as a potential tool for strategic survival -- of an organization, but to that of communities, nations and even ecological systems
Leadership as an essential component of scenario planning process and outcome -- to inform theory

Extend the interviews
SIQ – Further Quantitative and Qualitative analysis across multiple questionnaires
Further triangulation and saturation of data
Begin to investigate ways of testing relationship and more explicitly establish and document the nature of this relationship

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Scenario Planning as the Development of Leadership

by Rochell McWhorter on Jun 13, 2008

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