Divergence - what happens after Convergence

CONVERGENCE IS ‘COMING TO AN END’ But what happens after that? Network X Dis X Point of Convergence Object X A whitepaper by Rob Manson Managing Director Mobile Online Business (MOB) © 2007 Rob Manson-Mobile Online Business Email: roBman@MobileOnlineBusiness.com.au

What is Convergence? The concepts of Convergence and the Multiplay are currently driving the whole Telecommunications industry. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convergence http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Media_convergence http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_convergence And the Fixed-Mobile Convergence Alliance (FMCA) is the most tangible example of this. http://www.thefmca.com/ But what happens after that? Yet Convergence is only half the picture While Convergence is absolutely essential to create this change, there are two sentences in the underlying Model and Convergence is only the first. Part 1: As an Object and the Network Converge (Convergence) Part 2: that Object and it's Interface can Diverge (Divergence) This means that by Networking an Object we can make it available or controllable from anywhere on the Network. It's like ripping the control panel off your phone, TV, home security system, bluetooth headset, etc. and actually putting it in the network. This gives you more power and control over these objects - anywhere, anytime. As an Object and the Network Converge that Object and it's Interface can Diverge 1 © 2007 Rob Manson-Mobile Online Business

A Wireless DSL Modem is a tangible example of this type of Object. It's now possible to log in to your Wireless Modem and Control it from any internet Connected PC, or even Mobile Phone. This is now also becoming true of your TV, Video/DVD Recorder, Security Camera, Security System, Baby Monitor, etc. And of course the FMCA is driving this for Fixed and Mobile services. Their goal is to completely blend your home phone, mobile phone and internet connection. This process of adding network connectivity to an Everyday Object (starting with your phone) means you can now make that Object more Pervasive. It's as if these Objects are then quot;INquot; the network itself. In technical terms it increases the Object:Interface Divergence allowing the Interface to be accessed and controlled further and further away from the physical Object itself. Fig. 1: Object:Network Distance Diagram Network X Distance Object X It's like ripping the control panel off your phone, TV, home security system, bluetooth headset, etc. and actually putting it in the network. 2 © 2007 Rob Manson-Mobile Online Business

Fig. 2: Object:Network Convergence Diagram No. 1 Network X Distanc Object X So Object:Network Convergence reduces the distance between an Object and the Network. And it is literally this diagram that is currently the focus of the Telecommunications industry. Convergence is a means to an end - Divergence is that end. 3 © 2007 Rob Manson-Mobile Online Business

Fig. 3: Object:Network Convergence Diagram No. 2 Network X Distan X Point of Convergence Object X And the whole technology industry seems focused upon the Convergence area within this diagram. Yet Convergence, by it's very definition is a diminishing area that comes to an end over time. This is the point of Convergence. Convergence literally IS quot;coming to an endquot;. Convergence, by it's very definition is a diminishing area that comes to an end over time... Convergence literally IS quot;coming to an endquot;. 4 © 2007 Rob Manson-Mobile Online Business

Divergence will bring the real revolution! Fig. 4: Object:Interface Divergence Diagram Network X Distan X Object Interface On the flip side, Object:Interface Divergence increases the distance between an Object and it's Interface - allowing you to control that Object anywhere, anytime. This is the other side of the same line of the very same diagram. And this is where the emergent properties that will reshape the technology industry are really coming from. In business terms this is a paradigm shift, inflection point or simply a market revolution. 5 © 2007 Rob Manson-Mobile Online Business

This area created by Object:Interface Divergence is expanding rather than diminishing. And instead of coming to an end at the point of Object:Network Convergence...that point is where it increases vertically. In mathematical terms this is a singularity. In business terms this is a paradigm shift, inflection point or simply a market revolution. While the FMCA is driving towards this point of Convergence for the Phone there seems to be little if any real focus on what happens after that. http://www.thefmca.com/assets/pdf/idc_fmca_09_11_05.pdf Once the Architecture laid out by the FMCA is realised (http://www.thefmca.com/assets/pdf/FMCA_WiFi_SIP_PRD_Release_2_Network_Architecture.pdf) then the Network Effect will enable broad scale Object:Interface Divergence. This means that by adding network connectivity to an object it can automatically be made Perva- sive. Even today Windows Mobile 5 phones can connect to 3G and WiFi services using a rich (but small) web browser to access and control networked objects from anywhere. This includes a wide range of Objects such as: AV devices (e.g. home media centre) Headsets and other embedded devices Cars Homes and their appliances Etc. So while 6 of the 8 Application scenarios laid out by the FMCA focus on people and their communication (the traditional focus of the Telecommunications industry) this is merely the beginning. Diverged Object:Interfaces can even have a many:many relationship between the Interfaces and Objects creating whole new concepts of Object Clusters. 6 © 2007 Rob Manson-Mobile Online Business

The Divergence delivered by this frees Interfaces (and therefore their Users) from their traditionally 1:1 mapping to the physical location of their Everyday Objects. Diverged Object:Interfaces can even have a many:many relationship between the Interfaces and Objects creating whole new concepts of Object Clusters and Interface Servers. Keep an eye on this space as it has the potential to open up a whole new renaissance in Industrial Design! Now every object, product or service is open for re-interpretation. How will this effect your industry and business? What can we learn from the recent past? The Web Boom of the 90's was created by the Convergence of PCs and an increasingly common public IP network - the Internet. However it was the Divergence of the Web Server and it's Interface (via the Web Browser) that delivered the real impact of this whole revolution. So while sending and receiving email from your Internet connected PC is really useful...being able to send and receive email from any web browser (as defined by Hotmail) was the true Killer App for email during the Web Boom. And while EFTPOS via banking/retail networks is really useful...being able to make purchases from any web browser (e-commerce) is a Killer App that created massive companies like Amazon and eBay. This Model can then be extended to today's situation. The FMCA has already laid out a clear path for the Phone. This is the most important phase to be focused upon for any Telco today. And once this change is in place then large scale changes can happen overnight. While the currently common view seems to be that the fresh lessons from the recent Web Boom should ensure that any new booms should be much smaller and more restrained, Object:Interface Divergence suggests that the next Boom could happen much more quickly, be much larger and have even broader social and economic implications. And that those who ignore this possibility could see their whole market reshape before their very eyes. While EFTPOS via banking/retail networks is really useful...being able to make purchases from any web browser (e-commerce) is a Killer App that created massive companies like Amazon and eBay. 7 © 2007 Rob Manson-Mobile Online Business

The Mega Multiplay This Object:Interface Divergence model exposes what could really drive the Multiplay (blending phone, mobile and internet) into the mainstream! The FMCA Application Scenarios - Scenario F: Automation Control and Monitoring http://www.thefmca.com/assets/pdf/FMCA_Convergence_Application_Requirements_Rel_1.0.pdf A service which provides the ability to control various home based functions via the mobile device as temperature, access, etc. In addition, it offers the ability to monitor conditions within the home such as the burglar alarm, or home CCTV. The convergent offering ties together the user's home environment and access to the mobile device they have with them throughout the day. Key features: secure authentication to access the home network; service needs to adapt to available network capabilites, e.g. streamed video offered when appropriate. However this scenario can easily be extended to a much wider range of objects than described here. The etc. at the end of the first line really hides the true scope and potential of this scenario. How do we get there? Focusing on making core business functions Pervasive should be the first and most important goal for any business right now. Without this you are seriously vulnerable to agile smaller competitors that could quickly cannabalise your business. Once this is achieved, then beyond the Multiplay and it's promise of massive Media Mergers lies this Mega Multiplay. A future of Pervasive Computing (similar to that proposed by Mark Weiser from Xerox PARC - http://sandbox.xerox.com/ubicomp/) with the mas- sively increased network usage/dependence that this requires. Object:Interface Divergence suggests that the next Boom could happen much more quickly, be much larger and have even broader social and economic implications. 8 © 2007 Rob Manson-Mobile Online Business

The company that delivers a Pervasive Interface to the Customer may not only own that Customer's perception of their product segment, they may literally own all of that Customer's network traffic. Underneath this interface that Company can ensure that the network of their choice is used giving them control of the network revenue generated by that Customer. But Telco's be warned...you don't have to be a Network Owner (Telco) to deliver this type of control. Skype and the SkypeOut applications are good examples of this. The Pervasive Progression Here's how Computers have already become more Pervasive so far: The Computer (initially building and then room sized machines) The PC (desktop sized machines) The Networked PC (enabling the Web Boom) The Wireless PC (WiFi made network Pervasive within the home/office) Mobiles (the first truly Pervasive device) Wearable Devices (starting with Bluetooth headsets) See what the future feels like In order to help you get hands on experience with Divergence we are running a range of workshops. These workshops cover tangible topics such as: Hands on Divergence exercises Techniques for measuring how Pervasive a specific object is Divergence Analysis of existing business models Tangible ways to develop innovative new business models An in-depth look at how Divergence is the logical conclusion of User Centred Design For more information on Divergence or to register for a workshop email divergence@MobileOnlineBusiness or visit http://MobileOnlineBusiness.com.au. 9 © 2007 Rob Manson-Mobile Online Business

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Divergence - what happens after Convergence

by Rob Manson

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