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An analysis of the impacts of Lexington's closure of South Limestone and the resultant loss of business and quality of life in our community.

An analysis of the impacts of Lexington's closure of South Limestone and the resultant loss of business and quality of life in our community.

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  • 1. ANECDOTES Customers complaints from customers about traffic • Increasing (especially after High Street intersection closed) • One older customer gave up after attempting a trial run Other Businesses • South Limestone businesses closing, letting employees go • Similar business: Sales “fell off a cliff” in August & September • Festival Market business owner / customer: “Business sucks”
  • 2. Two Questions: How many of our customers come from South Lexington? How has that changed since South Limestone closure?
  • 3. IMPACTS 40504 40513 40503 40514 40517 40356
  • 4. IMPACTS 30 Southside Percent of Lowell’s Customer Base
  • 5. IMPACTS 30 Southside Percent of Lowell’s Customer Base
  • 6. IMPACTS 30 Southside Percent of Lowell’s Customer Base After Closure ¼¾ of Southside customers lost Since July 22nd, a full 1/3 of those South Lexington and Nicholasville customers have evaporated
  • 7. IMPACTS 30 Southside Percent of Lowell’s Customer Base After Closure ¼¾ of Southside customers lost Zero drop in rest of customer base
  • 8. If Lowell’s lost 10% of customers following South Lime closure… What is the impact to all of downtown?
  • 9. TRAFFIC South Broadway 36,000 South Limestone 25,000
  • 10. TRAFFIC South Broadway 61,000
  • 11. TRAFFIC West Main 19,000 South Broadway 61,000
  • 12. TRAFFIC West Main 19,000 Old Frankfort Pike 7,000 South Broadway 61,000
  • 13. TRAFFIC West Main 19,000 Old Frankfort Pike Over 90,000 vehicles 7,000 in disrupted traffic patterns 20% of all drivers South Broadway 61,000
  • 14. TRAFFIC True Costs of Traffic 45 mins = 5% of waking hours
  • 15. TRAFFIC True Costs of Traffic 45 mins = 5% of waking hours Retail Office Service Quality of Life Not buying at stores or Not working or Not delivering goods Not spending time with restaurants producing and services family and friends
  • 16. TRUE COST 11 -5 Lexington Downtown Impact $ Billion Size of Economy 8 % of Local Economy % Hit to Downtown Businesses $
  • 17. TRUE COST 11 -5 Lexington Downtown Impact $ Billion Size of Economy 8 % of Local Economy Hit to Downtown Businesses % Business Costs $ 84 to 92 $ Million Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations
  • 18. TRUE COST Business Costs $ 84 to 92 $ Million Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure
  • 19. TRUE COST Business Costs $ 84 to 92 $ Million Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure 360,000 $ per Day
  • 20. TRUE COST Business Costs $ 84 to 92 $ Million Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure 700 to 1,000+ Jobs
  • 21. TRUE COST Business Costs $ 84 to 92 $ Million Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure Project Costs 9 or 13 or 15 or 17 $ $ $ Direct Construction Costs $ Million
  • 22. TRUE COST Business Costs $ 84 to 92 $ Million Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure Project Costs 9 or 13 or 15 or 17 $ $ $ Direct Construction Costs $ Million Total Costs 90 to 110 $ $ Million
  • 23. When will a beautified South Limestone return $100 million or 1,000 jobs to Lexington’s economy?
  • 24. A QUESTION “Are these numbers right?”
  • 25. A QUESTION “AreWrong Question these numbers right?”
  • 26. A BETTER QUESTION Right Question: “How did we let ourselves vote for such economic devastation without any idea of the true impacts?”
  • 27. TWITTER TRAFFIC
  • 28. TRUE COST 3 2 Business Owners Walking Tour Weeks Weeks Since businesses pleaded for help Since you saw devastation first-hand A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations
  • 29. TRUE COST 3 2 Business Owners Walking Tour Weeks Weeks Since businesses pleaded for help Since you saw devastation first-hand When will LFUCG address $100 million hole in our city? A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations
  • 30. South Limestone: What to do
  • 31. SEEDS TO SOLUTION Commissioner Webb & Project Manager Milligan have already identified how to accelerate the completion of South Limestone. They just aren’t willing to do so.
  • 32. SEEDS TO SOLUTION Ask for more people / effort from utilities Ask cement company to stay open past 5PM Deal with noise ordinances
  • 33. SEEDS TO SOLUTION Uncomfortable / effort from utilities Ask for more people Uncomfortable to stay open past 5PM Ask cement company Uncomfortable Deal with noise ordinances
  • 34. $100 million is at stake. 1000 jobs are at stake.
  • 35. $100 million is at stake. 1000 jobs are at stake. Get over your discomfort.
  • 36. Cheapside | Vine | Main: What to do
  • 37. SEEDS TO SOLUTION Give “full faith and credit” to no one.
  • 38. SEEDS TO SOLUTION Give “full faith and credit” to no one. Only trust detailed plans of execution.
  • 39. PRETTY PICTURES
  • 40. PRETTY PICTURES The problem?
  • 41. PRETTY PICTURES The problem? This isn’t South Lime…
  • 42. PRETTY PICTURES Non-Existent Buildings & Storefronts Gleaming Marble Sidewalks?
  • 43. REALITY
  • 44. REALITY
  • 45. PRETTY PICTURES
  • 46. PRETTY PICTURES Without detailed plans of execution, it’s just a picture
  • 47. KEY QUESTIONS • Could all three streets, as with South Limestone, be completely closed? • Which sections of which streets will be closed? For what periods? What is the planned sequence of closures? • When can each business on the affected streets expect their businesses to be interrupted? • How long will such business interruptions last? What will those interruptions look like? Where will they be most severe? • How can we accelerate the project where business interruptions will be most profound? • Can we sequence closures around business cycles? Could retailers be least affected during the holiday shopping season? Could work near outdoor cafés be completed by spring? • How will the city or DDA assist businesses during the closures? How will such assistance be more effective than what was done for South Limestone? Targeted ad campaigns? Special events? Shuttle services from parking garages? • Will drivers need to find alternate routes (as with South Limestone)? • What are the likely sources of project delay? How will those be mitigated?
  • 48. SIGNS OF FAILURE Lack of Detail If they can’t provide step- by-step sequence of how the project will unfold…
  • 49. SIGNS OF FAILURE Lack of Detail If they can’t provide step- Fail by-step sequence of how the project will unfold…
  • 50. SIGNS OF FAILURE Economic Impact Estimate If they can’t provide an estimate of the true economic disruption caused by the new streetscapes…
  • 51. SIGNS OF FAILURE Economic Impact Estimate If they can’t provide an estimate of the true Fail economic disruption caused by the new streetscapes…
  • 52. SIGNS OF FAILURE Pretty Pictures
  • 53. SIGNS OF FAILURE Pretty Pictures Fail
  • 54. SIGNS OF FAILURE Vague Assurances “We’ll take care not to disrupt businesses…”
  • 55. SIGNS OF FAILURE Vague Assurances
  • 56. SIGNS OF FAILURE Vague Assurances Fail
  • 57. SIGNS OF FAILURE Lack of Detail No Economic Estimates Pretty Pictures Vague Assurances