Presentation at Market Research in the Mobile World Conference
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  • 5 Megatrends will shape our industry over the next ten years.The first is data abundance. Data is no longer scarce.The next is the seismic shift from asking to observing.The third is the democratization of research – a future where the consumer co-createsThe fourth is convergence on multiple layers. Industry convergence as new entrants join our space, the convergence of tools not traditionally thought of as research tools, and the convergence of data streams.The fifth is the need for the industry to ascend the data, information, knowledge, insight, foresight, strategy pyramid.
  • Critical to understanding the process of scenario development is the so-called “Futures Cone”. As you can see, the further out in time we look, the greater the number of possible futures. The key is to identify plausible futures first, analyze the implications of these futures , select a range of preferred futures, and work toward those while reducing the likelihood of undesirable futures.
  • 5 Megatrends will shape our industry over the next ten years.The first is data abundance. Data is no longer scarce.The next is the seismic shift from asking to observing.The third is the democratization of research – a future where the consumer co-createsThe fourth is convergence on multiple layers. Industry convergence as new entrants join our space, the convergence of tools not traditionally thought of as research tools, and the convergence of data streams.The fifth is the need for the industry to ascend the data, information, knowledge, insight, foresight, strategy pyramid.
  • 5 Megatrends will shape our industry over the next ten years.The first is data abundance. Data is no longer scarce.The next is the seismic shift from asking to observing.The third is the democratization of research – a future where the consumer co-createsThe fourth is convergence on multiple layers. Industry convergence as new entrants join our space, the convergence of tools not traditionally thought of as research tools, and the convergence of data streams.The fifth is the need for the industry to ascend the data, information, knowledge, insight, foresight, strategy pyramid.
  • First, as a sampler there are the dynamic duo of moving beyond the survey and moving beyond the developed world.Today…80% of the work we do is survey based. That won’t last.And, two thirds of all market research is conducted in the developed world. That won’t last either. The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies lists trend 5 as the rise of the global middle class. The what and where of market research is going to change. Ten years from now the winners will have successfully navigated their firms beyond a dependence on surveys in the developed world.
  • 5 Megatrends will shape our industry over the next ten years.The first is data abundance. Data is no longer scarce.The next is the seismic shift from asking to observing.The third is the democratization of research – a future where the consumer co-createsThe fourth is convergence on multiple layers. Industry convergence as new entrants join our space, the convergence of tools not traditionally thought of as research tools, and the convergence of data streams.The fifth is the need for the industry to ascend the data, information, knowledge, insight, foresight, strategy pyramid.
  • Let’s first look at the baseline forecast.The baseline forecast is our best estimate.Based on my research, interviews and writing I believe that market research will evolve along a four era continuum. There will be overlap in these eras.The first era, which we are exiting is the Asking era dominated by the survey. We were all acculturated in this era. That itself is a red flag.The next era will be the observational era dominated by data scraping, data mining, social media analytics, and lots of behavioural data.This will eventually give way to the co-creative era of research, as consumers demand ever greater input into the products we sell them and as marketers begin to develop community around co-creation.And this in turn will give way to the anticipatory era of market research. This era will be defined by games as research, by ubiquitous predictive markets, and by MROCs as Delphi panels.
  • Some of these scenarios will not surprise.Others will seem far fetched.I’m going to cite Dator’s Law now:“Any useful statement about the futures should appear to be ridiculous.”
  • So, let’s take a look at some plausible futures scenarios that I have developed in my research…
  • The implications are clear.NextGen insights firms will.
  • It’s a tall order.But, remember, the best way to predict the future is to make it.!Thank you

Presentation at Market Research in the Mobile World Conference Presentation at Market Research in the Mobile World Conference Presentation Transcript

  • Futuring Tools and the Futures of Market ResearchRobert Moran April 19, 2012
  • It’s a VUCA World The future will be more discontinuous with the past. 2
  • Creative Disruption:The 6Ds That Will Change Commerce (and eventually MR) Disruption Ethos “Blur Group Raises $2M To Disrupt How Marketers Pick Creatives For Campaigns” Disintermediation Remember “travel agents”? “Process gatekeepers” beware. Digitization Book stores, music stores, cameras, libraries, paper maps, cash… Dematerialization Smaller products. Less material. Often shifting focus to experience around product. Democratization Crowdsourcing, crowdfunding, DEWmocracy, “Rateocracy”, customer in charge in a radically transparent world. DIY Niche products, the maker movement, and eventually 3D printing 3
  • Foresight Tools for Thinking About the Futures Futures Cone Now Potential Plausible Possible Probable Copyright 2000: Joseph Voros Preferable Potential 4
  • The Importance of STEEP in Plural Futures • Social • Technological • Economic • Ecological • Political 5
  • The Incremental Approach Alternative Future Alternative Future Future Alternative Future Alternative Today Future 6
  • The Stretch Scenario ApproachExploring futures via two greatest uncertainties Uncertainty 2 Alternative Future A Alternative Future B Uncertainty 1 Alternative Future C Alternative Future D 7
  • Putting these tools to work… 8
  • Market Research Futures Shock. A Sampler. 2011 2021 Moving Beyond the Survey 80% of global research spending is The survey will not die, but currently dedicated to quantitative, research will move beyond survey-based, research the survey to social media (ESOMAR, 2010) listening, observational and co-creative (MROCs) tools. Established competitors will struggle through this transition. Growing Emerging Markets Two thirds of all traditional marketing Research spending will shift research is conducted in the five toward the emerging economies aging industrial democracies of the and firms that have strong United States (30%), the United research capacity in the Kingdom (11%), Germany (9%), emerging economies will France (9%) and Japan (6%) grow more rapidly. (ESOMAR, 2010). ―…the next decade will…mark the definitive breakthrough of the global middle class, and demand from this group will be among the crucial economic factors of world economy‖ – Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies 9
  • 5 MegaTrends Shaping the Futures of Our Industry • Data Abundance ―Rateocracy‖, social media, ―lifestreaming‖, IoT • Asking-Observing Shift ―listening posts‖ and feedback loops • Democratization UGC, co-creation, predictive markets • Convergence domain, tool and data • Strategic Imperative evolving value in a data-abundant world http://www.futureofinsight.com/interviews/ 10 http://www.greenbookblog.org/2011/02/21/lead-up-to-the-iir-tdmr-interview-with-robert-moran-of-strategyone/
  • Abundance and the Deindustrialization of Research Function Collecting Filtering Data acquisition costs drop Looking Looking Temporal focus shifts Backward Forward Form Economies Customized of Sale Data acquisition costs drop Service Command Consultative, and Control Temporal focus shifts Learning Based Pyramid Now Future―As an industry, we’re often criticized for our lack ofinsight and an overreliance on an industrialisedview of research.― Mike Cooke, ESOMAR: 2009 11
  • One Plausible Evolutionary Path Anticipatory Co-Creative Anticipatory Observational UGC • Focus shifts from mapping current Data Collection—Asking (Survey) opinion to anticipating Listening Neurological Behavioral future behaviors and • Collaborative alternative futures 2008- co-creation • Mass simulation • User- gaming* Face to Face Telephone Online Geomobile generated • MROC Delphi panels* • Move away • Track • CRM content from the survey neurological software • Strategic Foresight (UGC) instrument response • Big data • Agent-based as the main • Insights • fMRI • Experimental computational • Mobile surveys research vehicle communities • Face to Face • Telephone • Online surveys • Eye-tracking marketing modeling (MROCs) will surveys surveys • Prompted by • Location-based • Dramatic shift and other • Predictive markets • Geotracking dominate • Vertically declining telephone research from Intrusive, biological interrogatory • Clickstreams • Creation integrated survey participation • Augmented response research, to of ―design data rates and online Reality monitoring passive, listening- communities‖ collection technology • ―Lifestreaming‖ systems • Data becomes based research abundant and • Social media inexpensive research • Shift to • ―Listening posts‖ ―convenience • MROCS samples‖ • Text analytics • ―Rateocracy‖ 12
  • A brief tour of MR futures… 13
  • ―Any useful statement about the futures should appear to be ridiculous.‖ -Jim Dator 14
  • 22 Plausible Futures Scenarios
  • Socially Driven Scenarios Technology Driven Scenarios Economically Drive ScenariosThe Incredible Shrinking Survey Geo-Timed Feedback Dispersive ConvergenceDo Not Disturb Rapid In-Market Experimentation LilliputBack to the Future Iterative Insight Streaming E-AgencyWhat was privacy? Portal Power Global DepthPower to the People Let’s Play a Game Need for SpeedFrom Value to Values Limbic Space InvadersTribal Rituals Nano-Targeting AnticipationEpidemiology 16
  • Three Futures Definition Signals Co-creative design communities replace traditional market research. These are either open (and massive) or closed and proprietary. Project directors DEWmocracy, My Starbucks Idea,Power to the People become community managers and engagement HYVE’s Innovation communities becomes the core concern. http://www.hyve.de/ , Ideascale All key consumer data is integrated on a single online interface. The portal becomes the most important ―real estate‖ in market research. The portal provider Nunwood’s Fizz Dashboards and FizzPortal Power becomes market research’s landlord. Corporate Library, Clarabridge, Salesforce.com , insights departments and CMOs guard these portals CRM-CEM software companies jealously. Mechanical Turk, Victors & Spoils, Market research firms are replaced by individual e- guru.com, honestly.com, Angie’s List lancers. Market researchers are hired based on their online competency scores at honestly.com or by their Headline: ―Blur Group Raises $2M ToE-Agency Disrupt How Marketers Pick Creatives ―whuffie‖ rating on future reputational currency sites. For Campaigns‖
  • Three potential outcomes for the traditionalmarketing research industry: Transcendence Convergence Stagnation • Traditional MR repositions • Collision of marketing • Traditional marketing itself at center of wider research, management research refuses to evolve, insights industry consulting, social media preferring to stay with analytics, data mining, questioning rather than • Traditional MR absorbs and software observing tools and integrates tools and knowledge from • Produces a synthesis • Continues to execute wider industry, placing of tools and blurring tactical research projects itself at the top of of roles while wider insights the strategic insights industry passes it by value chain • Convergence is forced on traditional MR industry and adjustment is difficult 18
  • NextGen Insights Firms Willo Harness mobile (in the moment) researcho Moving from gatekeeper to guideo Make the leap from the Asking to the Observing Erao Master ―listening‖o Build insight communities (MROCs)o Triangulate: Pull insights from multiple data streamso Transition from projects to consultative retainerso Build ethnographic capacity at a global level for the global middle classo Master data visualizationo Leverage 24-7 global clocko Develop foresight capacity 19
  • The best way to predict the future is to make it. 20