Sales Portfolio & Forecasting System
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Sales Portfolio & Forecasting System

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Sales forecasts are notoriously biased, which leads to misallocation of resources and financial surprises. Our sales portfolio & forecasting system removes bias from forecasts to give you a more ...

Sales forecasts are notoriously biased, which leads to misallocation of resources and financial surprises. Our sales portfolio & forecasting system removes bias from forecasts to give you a more accurate view of your sales reality so that you can make more informed decisions about opportunities to pursue.
http://incitesales.incitedecisiontech.com

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Sales Portfolio & Forecasting System Sales Portfolio & Forecasting System Presentation Transcript

  • Incite!Sales: Sales Portfolio Forecasting System Improve Your Revenue with Greater Accuracy in Sales Forecasts www.incitedecisiontech.com rdbrown@incitedecisiontech.com 678.947.5997
  • Sales forecasts are notoriously biased. Why? • Unwarranted optimism • Sand bagging • Sense of entitlement • False precision versus accuracy • Memorable or extreme events • Availability of irrelevant information • Anchoring Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Double-alaskan-rainbow.jpg#filelinks
  • These effects are most noticeable in firms with • Long, complex sales cycles • Low frequency, high value sales • Little historical information on which to base top-down forecasts • Examples: professional services, capital equipment firms, engineering, architecture, construction, IT development, etc. 3Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved http://album.atomic- systems.com/showPic.php/71307/HAM4.jpg
  • How does this affect your business? • You fail to prioritize the best opportunities effectively, leading to delay or failure to close • Income crunches and cash shortages take you by surprise • Production needs misalign with delivery commitments • The needs of your market get obscured by false narratives, preventing effective growth or expansion 4Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved
  • Our Sales Portfolio & Forecasting System addresses these problems 5Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved • Avoid inherent biases in single point estimates • Develop an accurate picture of when revenues will most likely occur & when shortfalls are imminent • Reallocate resources to increase the likelihood of closing valuable opportunities sooner • Know which opportunities to abandon • Become a learning organization that improves forecasts & efficiency over time
  • The Four Pillars of the System • Calibration – Inputs are “debiased” & put in proper form for mathematical simulation. • Simulation – Monte Carlo simulation operates on all inputs in a statistically consistent manner for useful interpretation. • Interpretation – Meaningful results are returned in clear, graphical displays that permit important insights. • Communication – Insights translate into action with the proper resources & support coaching and incentive programs Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved 6
  • Removing bias from sales estimates starts with effective calibration 10% 90% 99%1% 50% 8 27 433 12 Input Calibration: Units Sold: acct 1 15.3 7Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved Avg Exploratory dialog guides an estimate for a range of assumptions for each of eight inputs, not just single point values. Visual feedback helps to calibrate assumptions for reasonableness. Should you now widen or narrow your estimate?
  • Get an accurate picture of when you will likely see revenue occur 8Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved Peaks indicate when receipts most likely occur. Valleys indicate distribution of income concerns.
  • Get an accurate picture of where revenue crunches & trends occur ! 9Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved
  • Understand where to make important tradeoffs to improve closure of valuable opportunities 10Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved Could you reallocate resources to improve the likelihood of more valuable awards?
  • Understand the efficient priority of opportunities 11Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved What if you completely reallocated resources from pursuing these low marginal contribution opportunities?
  • Understand the gap between total potential income and risk adjusted income Potential Risked $2M $4M Revenue [$] $6M $8M $10M $12M $14M $16M $18M $20M$0 12Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved Gap = $6.6M 10% 90% 99%1% 50% Percentile Legend Avg The gap represents the Value of Control for insuring that all opportunities result in Award.
  • Learn from your history to improve • Obtain insights into sales reps’ tendency toward accuracy • Implement coaching and incentive programs to improve accuracy • Observe how sales reps improve accuracy over time Trailing 1Q Trailing 2Q Trailing 3Q Trailing 4Q 10% 40% 40% 10% 25% 30% 40% 5% 30% 40% 25% 5% 50% 25% 15% 10% Trailing Quarter Accuracy: Units Sold: Sales Rep 1 13Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved
  • Should your sales organization use our Sales Portfolio & Forecasting System? 14Copyright © 2013-2014 Incite Decision Technologies LLC, All Rights Reserved www.incitedecisiontech.com rdbrown@incitedecisiontech.com 678.947.5997 Contact us today to see a live demo and learn more! Is your company a professional services, capital equipment, engineering, architecture, construction, or IT development firm? Do you experience long, complex sales cycles with low frequency, high value sales? Do you possess little historical information on which to base top-down forecasts? Do you maintain a progressive attitude toward advanced sales processes or want to grow in that direction?