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During a recent meeting in Copenhagen (November 14, 2011), Second Line of Defense met with Head of the Danish Military Academy, to discuss the Arctic opportunity and challange. This was the breifing …

During a recent meeting in Copenhagen (November 14, 2011), Second Line of Defense met with Head of the Danish Military Academy, to discuss the Arctic opportunity and challange. This was the breifing from which the conversation was generated. We will soon add this conversation to our website which can be found at http://www.sldinfo.com

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  • 1. SECURITY DYNAMICS OF THE ARCTIC Rear Admiral Nils Wang Royal Danish Defence College
  • 2. PUBLIC PERCEPTION COVER Arctic: Fight for the Top Of the World (Cover Story / The Well) As global warming melts the Arctic ice, dreams of a short sea passage to Asia-and riches beneath the surface have been revived. With Russia planting a flag on the ocean floor at the North Pole, Canada talking tough and Washington wanting to be a player, who will win the worlds new Great Game?15-11-2011 2
  • 3. THE UNCLOS RULES15-11-2011 3
  • 4. BORDER LINES AND CLAIMS IN THE ARCTICSource:Durham University
  • 5. UNDISCOVERED OIL AND GAS 97% INSIDE EEZs Figure 1: CARA Assessment of "Mean Estimated Undiscovered Oil" in Arctic Circle Source: "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic," Gautier et al., Science, May 2009. Figure 2: CARA Assessment of "Mean Estimated Undiscovered Gas" in Arctic Circle Source: "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in15-11-2011 the Arctic," Gautier et al., Science, May 2009. 6
  • 6. NEW SHIPPING ROUTESIce extension – as of February
  • 7. THE ARCTIC CONTEXT”THE ARCTIC FIVE” The Ilulissat Declaration: MAY 2008• Cooperation and Dialog• Common Arctic Responsibility• Disputes => International rules ”The Arctic Council should not deal with matters related to military security”. Footnote from the Ottawa Declaration 1996
  • 8. NORWAY UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 1996 The treaty on maritime delimitation between Norway and Russia 2011 Strategy for the High North (2006)15-11-2011 9
  • 9. RUSSIA UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 1997 The treaty on maritime delimitation between Norway and Russia 2011 Arctic Strategy (2008) National Interests AP: Russia plans to establish a) Strategic ressource base an Arctic brigade on the border to Norway already in b) Peace and cooperation 2011. c) Conservation of eco-systems Photo: Trude Pettersen d) Use Northern Sea Route as national transportation system15-11-2011 AUG 2010 10
  • 10. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA UNCLOS RATIFICATION: ? National Security Presidential Directive and Homeland Security Presidential Directive It is the Arctic Policy of the United States to: • Meet national security and homeland security; • Protect the Arcticenvironment; • Ensuresustainability15-11-2011 11 January 9, 2009
  • 11. CANADA UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 2003 ? Hans Island15-11-2011 12
  • 12. KINGDOM OF DENMARK UNCLOS RATTIFICATION: 200417 billion barrels 31 billion barrels Kuupik: Grundlov er ikke løsrivelse15-11-2011 K. O. Berthelsen Li Keqiang 13
  • 13. REE OUTSIDE CHINA15-11-2011 14
  • 14. THE GLOBAL NEED FOR RESSOURCES15-11-2011 15
  • 15. CONCLUSIONS STABILISING FACTORS • ECONOMICICAL INTERESTS • ILULISSAT DECLARATION • ARCTIC COUNSIL • NORTH ATLANTIC COAST GUARD FORUM OPERATIONAL COOPERATION RISK FACTORS • AMBIGUOUS COMMUNICATION • SUPPRESSION OF SECURITY DIALOGUE • ENVIRONMENTAL DISASASTER REGULATION OF RESSOURCES • ECO ACTIVISM/TERRORISM • ”COD WARS” • NATO/EU/CHINA/? • GREENLANDIC ”BREAK AWAY”? THE JOKER FUTURE US-CHINA RELATIONSPREVENTION OF ACCIDENTS ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSE CAPABILITY