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Airbus military market overview 2012.


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Airbus Military Market Overview 2012 …

Airbus Military Market Overview 2012

These slides were presented during the Trade Media 2012 event held at Madrid, Spain and Toulouse, France in May 2012.

In this presentation, Antonio Rodriguez Barberan, SVP Commercial, provided an overview. The core point is the extensive reach of the company due to the legacy products and the coming into service of the A330 tanker and the A400M.

There are approximately 6300 aircraft currently in service of an average age of 27 years. And the AM products represent 10% of the current global inventory.

Aircraft have been sold to 136 customers worldwide in 65 countries.

AM has a 47% market share of the light and medium transport and ISR market. It will have 33% of the heavy lifter market with the A400M and will have 78% of the global market for tankers, excluding the U.S.

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  • 1. May 2012Market Overview and Commercial UpdatePresented byAntonio Rodriguez Barberán, SVP Commercial
  • 2. The Market in which we compete HEAVY AIRCRAFT 1,780 a/c 1,060 a/c ~2,450 a/c Av. Age 26y 975 a/c L&M AIRCRAFT ~3,200 a/c 234 a/c 424 a/c Av. Age 24y 819 a/c 247 a/c 498 a/c 285 a/c AERIAL TANKERS ~635 a/c Av. Age 44y Total fleet:  6,300 a/c in service Average Age: 27 years (AM products represent 10% of the world fleet)NOTE: Light & Medium; up to 12t of Max.Pyld. Heavy; +12t of Max.Pyld. Tankers; +50t of Fuel Capacity (KC-46 excluded).
  • 3. Airbus Military - Total Sales to 1Q2012 499 Europe 4 A330MRTT 80 North America 14A310MRTT 2 A310MRTT 170 A400M 27 CN235 46 C295 51 C212 125 CN235 2 Countries 140 C212 23 Customers 16 Countries 33 Customers 56 MENA 140 Latin America 9 A330MRTT 29 C295 14 C295 20 CN235 25 CN235 247 Asia & Pacific 50 Africa (Sub.) 5 A330MRTT 91 C212 8 C212 2 C295 4 A400M 16 Countries 9 Countries 6 CN235 9 C295 27 Customers 42 C212 9 Customers 74 CN235 11 Countries 145 C212 14 Customers 11 Countries 30 Customers 1060 a/c sold to 136 customers in 65 countries
  • 4. Annual sales for the last 30 years
  • 5. Competition sales 2001-2011
  • 6. Airbus Military sales 2001-2011 Market Share
  • 7. Airbus Military global market presence 1060 Aircraft sold* 65 countries 136 operators 4,2 million FHs Interoperability and supportability backed by global presence and 30 years of experience(*) 14 C295 aircraft sold so far in 2012. One new country customer (Kazakhstan)
  • 8. Past and new requirementsGlobal Demand Rapid response to Natural Disasters Support to Multilateral Peace Operations Humanitarian needs SAR missions Anti-piracy missions Immigrants Control Oil Spill Response Drug traffic Control International conflicts 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 The world is changing
  • 9. Past and new requirements (Cont.) PAST SCENARIO NEW SCENARIO Cold war era Humanitarian Needs Bipolar World New asymmetric threats Mainly Military Missions Rapid response Tankers A330 MRTT KC-135 KC-767 C-17 Heavy C-130 A400M Light & Medium C-27J DHC-4 ATR-42 DHC-8 CN235 C295 G-222 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s Requirements for new, more versatile products
  • 10. Military Operations 2001 Afghanistan 2003 Iraq 2009 Sudan 2011 Libya Military operations performed by the Armed Forces have increased over recent years:  Global Reach  Deployment in hostile areas - front line support  Logistic and training transport missions  Longer time required on Air to Air Refueling military missions  ISR missions over the theater of operations Increased activity during recent yearsSource: Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (HIIK)
  • 11. Search and Rescue (SAR) Missions 1982 4428 7982 5704 1551 1394 6891 More than 30,000 persons rescued during 1982 – 2010 In 2010 alone, 12,338 persons were rescued in 641 SAR events Increasing global assistance needSource: CospasSARSAT Data 2010
  • 12. Natural Disasters Geophysical events (i.e.earthquake) Meteorological events (i.e.storm) Hydrological events (i.e.floods) Climatological events (i.e.wildfire) Over the past decade, more than 2 billion people have been affected by natural disasters. On average, 62,000 lives were lost per year. Rapid response is a mustSource: Munich RE-NatCatSERVICE 2010-2011 Main Natural disasters/ International Committee of the Red Cross
  • 13. Oil Spills Approximately 5.71 million tonnes of oil were lost as a result of tanker incidents from 1970 to 2010. A growing environmental concern worldwideSource: ITOPF Oil Tanker Spill Statistics 1970-2010. Main oil spills events >7 tonnes.
  • 14. Drug traffic control Global cocaine traffic Global opium traffic Route growth The Northern The Balkan Route Route The Southern Route New routes Global cocaine production has grown by a Global opium production has grown by a factor of 6 during the last three decades. factor of 7 during the last three decades A never ending storySource: UNODC World Drug Report 2009
  • 15. Tracking immigrant movements Main routes for African irregular migrants to US & Europe Latin America to US: Africa to Europe: Around 300,000 in 2011 On average 55,000 irregular immigrants per year An issue worldwide. Current examples: US border and the Mediterranean areaSource: UNODC The Globalization of Crime 2010
  • 16. Multilateral Peace Operations Four-fifths of peace operation personnel are deployed to Africa and Asia Personnel deployed to peace operations (Thousands) 350 250 Rising trend 150 50 In 2010, nine organizations were involved in 52 operations with a personnel of some 263,000. More than 90% of these were from NATO and the UN Rising new missions worldwideSource: SIPRI Multilateral Peace Operations 2010
  • 17. Piracy Attacks *Each dot represents a 237 Indian Ocean, Red Sea and piracy or armed robbery Gulf of Aden incident during 2010 34 South and Central America 38 West Africa 50 South Asia 80 South-East Asia 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 More than 435 attacks during 2011. Somalia: the most affected region. A growing asymmetric threatSource: Chamber of Commerce, International Maritime Bureau, Piracy Reporting Center
  • 18. Military Expenditure in 2011 US$ 82 Bn Total 2011: US$ 736 Bn US$ 327Bn US$ 1,738bn (+0.3% vs 2010) US$ 143 Bn US$ 145 Bn US$ 49Bn US$ 163 Bn US$ 73Bn US$ 20 Bn USA Bra Ger India World military expenditure SaudiA. Jap China stopped growing Fr UK RussiaSource; SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute . US$ (current prices 2011)* Data not available for some CIS countries
  • 19. Very uneven budget growthin recent years US$ 82 Bn A few big spenders US$ 327Bn compensate for the US$ 736 Bn budget stagnation in US$ 143 Bn Europe and Japan US$ 145 Bn US$ 49Bn US$ 163 Bn US$ 73Bn US$ 20 Bn Top 10 Military spenders - % variation 2002-2011 170 90 79 %variation 2002-2011 80 59 59 60 42 40 18 19 20 0 -0,6 -2,5 -3,7 -20 USA China Russia UK France Japan Saudi Germany India Brazil World ArabiaSource; SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute* Data not available for some CIS countries
  • 20. Mid-term Budgets forecast Global GDP growth, %• The global economic prospects for 4,1 4,0 3,9 4,0 4,0 2012 and 2013 are pessimistic, and History 2,8 2,6 3,2 only supported by the developing 1,5 2,2 Optimistic 0,5 economies 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012* 2013*• US DoD just issued its -2,4 planned $487B budget reduction over 10 years• Main programs affected: C-27Js JCA; C-5;C-130,RQ-4 Global Hawk…• Australia: minus $5.5B in next four years
  • 21. Defense procurement will keep growingonly in specific regions and countries CAGR 2016-2011 4.0% 2.9% 3.9% 13.9% 3.3% -1.1% 0.5% 1.4% world avg
  • 22. Additional needs will promote our products beyond pure military applications  New missions involving new  Traditionally military operations conducted customers such as by military bodies of each country governmental agencies AM product range to answer today’s and 3000 $Bn tomorrow’s needs GAP • Versatility • Effectiveness 2000 • EfficiencyUS $ Bn 1000 Forecast 0 2001 2001 2011 2010 2014 2013 A requirement for more versatile products Sources: SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute April 2011/ Airbus Military
  • 23. New aircraft demand until 2040 1500 New Sales (a/c) 1000 500 0 Light and Medium Heavy Strategic Aerial Airlifters and Surveillance Aircraft Airlifters Tankers* % units 52% 33% 15% % value 20% 43% 37% New aircraft demand will average ~80 per yearNOTE: Light & Medium 4-12t of Max. Payload and Medium Range M.Surveillance/ Heavy 25-50t of Max. Payload/ Tankers +50t of Fuel Capacity.(*) Possible future US KC-Y & KC-Z competitions are included
  • 24. Potential Market over the next 30 years New Aircraft Sales Light and Medium Aircraft ~ 1250 a/c Heavy ~ 800 a/c Aircraft Tanker/MRTT ~ 350* a/c Aircraft Market Value: ~ $240BnNOTE: Light & Medium Segment 4-12t of Max.Payload/ Heavy Segment 25-50t of Max.Payload/ MRTT-Tanker Segment +50t of Fuel Capacity.(*) Possible future US KC-Y & KC-Z competitions are included
  • 25. In summary…• The military market for Transport, Mission aircraft and Tankers is a very irregular one, with plenty of up and downs• Shrinking military budgets are becoming the norm, except for specific countries and regions• However, civil and humanitarian missions are spreading more and more• In this context, the most versatile aircraft have the best chances to obtain market success• Our products are market leaders in their corresponding categories• Airbus Military is firmly committed to keep its leading position for many years
  • 26.  2011 AIRBUS. Todos los derechos reservados. Documento confidencial. Este documento y toda la información contenida en el mismo es propiedad exclusiva de AIRBUS. La entrega de este documento o la divulgación de su contenido no otorga ningún derecho de propiedad intelectual a su receptor. Tampoco podrá ser reproducido o desvelado a terceros sin el consentimiento expreso por escrito de AIRBUS. Ni este documento ni su contenido podrán ser utilizados con otro fin que no sea aquél para el que han sido entregados. Las manifestaciones expresadas en este documento no constituyen una oferta comercial. Están basadas en las premisas mencionadas en el mismo y han sido realizadas de buena fe. Para cualquier aclaración dirigirse a AIRBUS. AIRBUS Y AIRBUS MILITARY, sus logotipos y los modelos A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M, A330MRTT, C212, C295 y CN235 son marcas registradas.Page 27
  • 27. Thank you