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Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009
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Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009

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  • 1. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies Peosta, Iowa by John Roach February 11, 2009
  • 2. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Why were grain prices so high?
  • 3. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Population Growth Rates Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017.
  • 4. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Global Meat beef + pork + chickens & turkeys Production, per capita consumption, and population Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017.
  • 5. <ul><li>Dollar Index </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Dollar Value Down 40% Since 2002 Peak
  • 6. <ul><li>DJ / AIG Commodity Index </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Index Up 180% Since 2002 Low
  • 7. <ul><li>DJ / AIG Commodity Index Composition </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Energy: 37.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Livestock: 6.97% </li></ul><ul><li>Grains: 16.57% </li></ul><ul><li>Base Metals: 19.54% </li></ul><ul><li>Precious Metals: 8.99% </li></ul><ul><li>Softs: 7.59% </li></ul><ul><li>Soybean Oil: 2.74% </li></ul>
  • 8. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What happened to cause prices to drop?
  • 9. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. USDA 2008 World Corn Yields 6/10/08 149.0 Bu/Acre U.S. 87.6 Bu/Acre Chinese 78.1 Bu/Acre World 60.1 Bu/Acre Non – U.S.
  • 10. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 11. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 12. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 13. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 14. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. There will not be enough money to raise crops this big next year
  • 15. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 16. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 17. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 18. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 19. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 20. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 21. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 22. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 23. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 24. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 25. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 26. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 27. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>World coarse grain ending stocks tight </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. ending stocks expected to loosen </li></ul><ul><li>Exports off to slow start </li></ul><ul><li>Ethanol demand slowing </li></ul><ul><li>Yet, we still need a big corn crop every year </li></ul><ul><li>Price peak due in Mar – June in 2009 </li></ul>Corn Situation and Price Outlook
  • 28. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 29. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 30. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 31. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 32. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 33. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 34. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 35. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Shrinking 2009 & 2010 crop in S. America </li></ul><ul><li>Demand is surprising market </li></ul><ul><li>US stocks very tight </li></ul><ul><li>World soybean ending stocks tightening </li></ul><ul><li>Prices currently tied to S. American weather China and spec demand </li></ul>Bean Situation and Price Outlook
  • 36. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?
  • 37. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 38. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 39. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sales Plan <ul><li>Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, April, May and June. Avoid October and November </li></ul><ul><li>Sell in increments to take advantage of several market peaks using Roach Ag Sell Signals </li></ul><ul><li>Buy puts on unsold new crop production with either profit goal or insurance goal </li></ul>
  • 40. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year </li></ul><ul><li>March through June is usually best </li></ul>Rule # 1
  • 41. <ul><li>December 2007 Corn </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal
  • 42. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell & Buy Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices
  • 43. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal
  • 44. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)
  • 45. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal </li></ul>Rule # 2
  • 46. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level </li></ul>Rule # 3
  • 47. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop using your best ever yields </li></ul>Rule # 4
  • 48. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harvest to generate necessary cash-flow from harvest through February </li></ul>Rule # 5
  • 49. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal </li></ul>Rule # 6
  • 50. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 51. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 52. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 53. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 54. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 55. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 56. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 57. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 58. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 59. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 60. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 61. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 62. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing Plan Worksheet
  • 63. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com

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