© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies Peosta, Iowa by John Roach February 11, 2009
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Why were grain prices so high?
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Population Growth Rates Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Global Meat  beef + pork + chickens & turkeys Production, per capita consumption, and populatio...
<ul><li>Dollar Index </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Dollar Value Down 40% Since 2002 Peak
<ul><li>DJ / AIG Commodity Index  </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Index Up 180% Since 2002 Low
<ul><li>DJ / AIG Commodity Index Composition </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Energy: 37.6%  </li></ul><ul><li...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What happened to cause prices to drop?
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. USDA 2008 World Corn Yields 6/10/08 149.0  Bu/Acre U.S.  87.6  Bu/Acre Chinese 78.1  Bu/Acre Wo...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. There will not be enough money to raise crops this big next year
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>World coarse grain ending stocks tight </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. ending stocks expected to...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Shrinking 2009 & 2010 crop in S. America </li></ul><ul><li>Demand is surprising market ...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sales Plan <ul><li>Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, ...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st  half of the year </li></ul><ul><li>March throu...
<ul><li>December 2007 Corn </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell & Buy Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal </li></ul>Rule # 2
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring ...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop ...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harvest to generate necessary cash-flo...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and ...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing Plan  Worksheet
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.  7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL  33487 800-622-7628 [e...
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Peosta, Iowa Seminar - February 11, 2009

  1. 1. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies Peosta, Iowa by John Roach February 11, 2009
  2. 2. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Why were grain prices so high?
  3. 3. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Population Growth Rates Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017.
  4. 4. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Global Meat beef + pork + chickens & turkeys Production, per capita consumption, and population Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017.
  5. 5. <ul><li>Dollar Index </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Dollar Value Down 40% Since 2002 Peak
  6. 6. <ul><li>DJ / AIG Commodity Index </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Index Up 180% Since 2002 Low
  7. 7. <ul><li>DJ / AIG Commodity Index Composition </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Energy: 37.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Livestock: 6.97% </li></ul><ul><li>Grains: 16.57% </li></ul><ul><li>Base Metals: 19.54% </li></ul><ul><li>Precious Metals: 8.99% </li></ul><ul><li>Softs: 7.59% </li></ul><ul><li>Soybean Oil: 2.74% </li></ul>
  8. 8. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What happened to cause prices to drop?
  9. 9. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. USDA 2008 World Corn Yields 6/10/08 149.0 Bu/Acre U.S. 87.6 Bu/Acre Chinese 78.1 Bu/Acre World 60.1 Bu/Acre Non – U.S.
  10. 10. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  11. 11. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  12. 12. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  13. 13. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  14. 14. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. There will not be enough money to raise crops this big next year
  15. 15. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  16. 16. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  17. 17. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  18. 18. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  19. 19. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  20. 20. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  21. 21. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  22. 22. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  23. 23. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  24. 24. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  25. 25. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  26. 26. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  27. 27. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>World coarse grain ending stocks tight </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. ending stocks expected to loosen </li></ul><ul><li>Exports off to slow start </li></ul><ul><li>Ethanol demand slowing </li></ul><ul><li>Yet, we still need a big corn crop every year </li></ul><ul><li>Price peak due in Mar – June in 2009 </li></ul>Corn Situation and Price Outlook
  28. 28. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  29. 29. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  30. 30. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  31. 31. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  32. 32. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  33. 33. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  34. 34. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  35. 35. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Shrinking 2009 & 2010 crop in S. America </li></ul><ul><li>Demand is surprising market </li></ul><ul><li>US stocks very tight </li></ul><ul><li>World soybean ending stocks tightening </li></ul><ul><li>Prices currently tied to S. American weather China and spec demand </li></ul>Bean Situation and Price Outlook
  36. 36. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?
  37. 37. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  38. 38. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  39. 39. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sales Plan <ul><li>Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, April, May and June. Avoid October and November </li></ul><ul><li>Sell in increments to take advantage of several market peaks using Roach Ag Sell Signals </li></ul><ul><li>Buy puts on unsold new crop production with either profit goal or insurance goal </li></ul>
  40. 40. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year </li></ul><ul><li>March through June is usually best </li></ul>Rule # 1
  41. 41. <ul><li>December 2007 Corn </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal
  42. 42. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell & Buy Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices
  43. 43. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal
  44. 44. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)
  45. 45. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal </li></ul>Rule # 2
  46. 46. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level </li></ul>Rule # 3
  47. 47. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop using your best ever yields </li></ul>Rule # 4
  48. 48. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harvest to generate necessary cash-flow from harvest through February </li></ul>Rule # 5
  49. 49. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal </li></ul>Rule # 6
  50. 50. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  51. 51. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  52. 52. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  53. 53. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  54. 54. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  55. 55. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  56. 56. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  57. 57. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  58. 58. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  59. 59. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  60. 60. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  61. 61. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  62. 62. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing Plan Worksheet
  63. 63. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com
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