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Presentation for Governor School at Monmouth University 96/97

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Rkfut402

  1. 1. c gi Lo Technology Limits ar ne ili rv Cu Surfing the Sigmoid Curve c gi Lo Rapid Growth ar ne Initial ili rv Cu Raman Kannan DNA Laboratory, Monmouth University http://www.monmouth.edu/monmouth/academic/dna
  2. 2. Change! We must! “There is a tide in the affairs of men Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, And we must take the current when it serves, Or lose our ventures”. Brutus, Julius Caesar, Act IV, Scene 3 Change = Vision + Energy + Power + Plan The Only Thing That Matters - Karl Albrecht Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 2
  3. 3. Perpetually Accelerating Change ... “I accost an American Sailor, and inquire why the ships of his country are built so as to last but for a short time; he answers without hesitation that the art of navigation is every day making such rapid progress that the finest vessel would become almost useless if it lasted beyond a few years” Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America 1840 The Only Thing That Matters - Karl Albrecht Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 3
  4. 4. It has always been that way... T.J. Watson Sr. Container shipment Our way of life rewards change and innovation .. And is unforgiving if resistant to change ... Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 4
  5. 5. Winners Thrive on Chaos! And, Boeing was in the business of selling furniture. With silicon rather than germanium TI overtook giants like Hughes ... Whatever happened to GE , RCA and others based on vaccum tube technology ... Do not ask “Is it safe out there?” And that is why Columbus stands tall ... Paradigms - The Business of Discovering Future by Joel Arthur Barker Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 5
  6. 6. What is at work? Paradigm and Change .... A paradigm is a set of rules and regulations (written) or unwritten) that does two things: (1) It establishes or defines boundaries; and (2) it tells you how to behave inside the boundaries in order to be successful. The most fundamental set of assumptions adopted by a professional community that allows its members to share similar perceptions and engage in commonly shared practices is called a paradigm. -- CACM Vol. 32 10, 1202, 1989 Paradigms - The Business of Discovering Future by Joel Arthur Barker Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 6
  7. 7. Paradigm at Work... if it is not within belief set .. then the actions and actors become irrelevant .... Russian soldiers who cut the electric bulb after World War I Anyone .. even the Chess Grandmasters.... Prof. Herbert Simon at CMU A well documented board ... vs random position.... Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage by Richard Foster Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 7
  8. 8. Sigmoid Curves Limit of the Technology Rapid Growth Initial Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage by Richard Foster Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 8
  9. 9. Technology Discontinuities Limit of the Technology Rapid Growth New Technology Initial Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage by Richard Foster Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 9
  10. 10. Technology Discontinuities When one technology replaces another • Nylon tires became polyester tires • Vacuum tubes became germanium .. onto silicon .. • Telephone Switches -- gone are the operators ... People resist .. When Cars where introduced ... jobs were going to be lost ... In retrospect .. we would not be where we are today! Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 10
  11. 11. Waves of Discontinuities ... Not just once ... but many times over time... Not just in small artifacts.... Discontinuity at all levels.... A macroscopic global discontinuity for example... Communication Revolution Adopted from The Third Wave Digital Revolution --Alvin Teffler Industrial Revolution Agricultural Revolution Nomadic (pre-agrarian) 800 0 BC 170 0 BC 195 0 BC Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 11
  12. 12. Winners and Losers ... Company Product Status P and G Pampers and Tide Winner Citibank ATM Winner Michelin Radial Winner NCR Electro-Mechanical Looser Fall River Boats Sail Boats Looser Casio/Citizen Digital Watch Winner Xerox Copier Winner U.S. Surgicals Stapes Winner When a paradigm shift occurs.. everyone goes to zero .... Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 12
  13. 13. Shift ... Monetary System Must be revolutionary ... Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 13
  14. 14. Shift ... Teaming the only way Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 14
  15. 15. Shift ... Bytes not Bullets ... The Virtual Corporation by William H. Davidow & Michael S. Malone Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 15
  16. 16. Now showing in a theater ... Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 16
  17. 17. And one thing leads to another ... A mom and pop store in Maine offers its product over the Internet. Customer Base - World Wide ... Product -- Does it matter! (Flea markets .. moving sale..) Investment -- Must be a fraction ... Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 17
  18. 18. Perpetual Transformation Operator assisted phonecalls u eliminate the operator (calling cards) u Caller is the operator (speech recognition) u It is happening everywhere, all the time and in every dimension Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 18
  19. 19. Algorithm Identify alternatives to your present approaches u Identify performance parameters u u what cannot be measured cannot be improved... Calculate Limits u Draw an S Curve (history, limit and future) .. u Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 19
  20. 20. Being Ahead ... Sony introduced Walkman in 1979 .. u Other sharks got into the fray ... u Aiwa, Panasonic... etc.... u Not for a breather ... but push harder ... u Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 20
  21. 21. Sony Magic ... kaizen Sony’s Response .... Continuos Improvement.... u u Auto Reverse, Bass and treble, Smaller headphones u shock/water resistance u digital tuning u Dolby ... Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 21
  22. 22. Even The Big Folly Microsoft playing catch-up .... u u Internet technologies .... IBM, Digital on Client/Server Technology u Reverse Engineering does not work.. u If you want to be the first ... u Cannot wait for the final tally u The message is clear .... Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 22
  23. 23. History is full of it ... the phonograph ..is not of any commercial value- Edison u Flight by machine heavier than air is impractical and insignificant, if u not utterly impossible .. Simon Newcomb 1902 (astronomer) It is an idle dream .. that automobile will replace railways u u So claimed American Road Congress, 1913 And the list goes on and on ..... u Changes about to happen are not telling ... Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 23
  24. 24. Phases of Transition .... The established becomes less effective u The community loses trust ... u Turbulence grows u New “paradigm” is presented u Turbulence increases ... u All demand clear and better solutions u Some old problems go away u Acceptance gains momentum... u Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 24
  25. 25. And Let Go! Honey I donated all your size 30 to u Even if you are on the right track .. u We cannot afford to be complacent .... u Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 25
  26. 26. Prepare for the future ... Say, how do I get to XYZ? Keep on going.. you will get to the top of hill and then at the bottom of the hill you will hit a light ... And 2 turns before the light make a right ... Find an opportunity in every difficulty That is where we will be for the rest of our lives u Surfing the Sigmoid Curve Raman Kannan Monmouth University 1996-97(c) 26

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