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Forecasting Presentation Forecasting Presentation Presentation Transcript

  • FORECASTING AT ROSS PRODUCTS By: Ravi Kanudawala (3905139) Mayur Somaiya (3905128) Ajay Raval (3905225)
  • FORECASTING  Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. For example, it might be estimation for some variable of interest at some specified value date.  Forecasting is used in the practice of Customer Demand Planning in every day business forecasting for manufacturing companies.
  • TYPES OF FORECASTING  Quantitative forecasting  Naïve forecasting Approach Time Series Forecasting methods  Causal / econometric forecasting methods Judgmental forecasting methods Artificial Intelligence forecasting methods
  • REGRESSION ANALYSIS  The Regression Analysis is part of Causal / econometric forecasting methods. It includes a large group of methods that can be used to predict future values of a variable using information about other variables.
  • STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLANNING  Level of aggregation  Total sales or output volume  Top Management involvement  intensive  Forecast frequency  Annual or less  Length of forecast  Year by years or quarters  Usual techniques  Management judgment, regression.
  • SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING  Level of aggregation  Product family units  Top Management involvement  When reconciling functional plans or moderate  Forecast frequency  Monthly to quarterly  Length of forecast  Several months to a year by months  Usual techniques  Aggregation of detailed forecasts, customer plans
  • MASTER PRODUCTION SCHEDULING AND CONTROL  Level of aggregation  Individual finished goods or components  Top Management involvement  Very little or Minimal  Forecast frequency  Constantly  Length of forecast  A few days to weeks  Usual techniques  Projection techniques (smoothing, moving average)
  • INTRODUCTION  The Ross Products is division of Abbott laboratories and is situated in Columbus , Ohio.  It produces a variety of nutritional products including adult medical nutrition supplements, pediatric infant formulas, as well as ancillary equipment.  For example, pump which supplies nutritional liquids to the stomach.  Mainly there are four manufacturing facilities in US.  Ross markets its products in United States and Overseas.  They using log*plus program to perform demand management activities. Log*plus produces forecasts from nation inputs and monitors actual demands against these forecasts.
  • PROCEDURE Marketing and sales forecasts by products groups Vendor-managed inventory EDI Demand Management Other Customers Orders Breakout of national forecast by plant International Forecast Forecast consolidation and conversion ( to SKU by plant) Meeting for revising the forecast Forecast available for manufacturing Planning Meeting for forecast review
  • Values of Dependent Variable Actual observation Deviation Deviation Deviation Deviation Deviation Deviation Deviation ˆ Y a bx Time Point on regression line
  • LINEAR TREND PROJECTION  Used for forecasting linear trend line Yi a bX i  Assumes relationship between response variable, Y, and time, X, is a linear function
  • LINEAR REGRESSION EQUATIONS Equation: ˆ Yi a bxi n Slope: b x i yi i 1 n i 1 Y-Intercept: a x i2 y bx nx y nx 2