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American Values Survey 2012

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  • 12% of all Americans are former Catholics.
  • Note white Christian and unaffiliatedWhite Christian: 3-in-10 millennials vs. 7-in-10 seniors.Unaffiliated: 3-in-10 millennials vs. 1-in-10 seniorsIf you were to place Obama and Romney’s voting coalitions in this map using white Christian percentage:Obama would be placed between 18-29 and 30-49 bracketsRomney would be placed BEYOND the 65+ bracket
  • [*GIVE EXAMPLES FROM OPEN-ENDS HERE*]4-in-10 cite some kind of belief conflict3-in-10 cite dislike of organized religion or attribute of negative attribute of institution/religious people
  • Unattached believers are “new species” identified by this survey.
  • Religious liberty under attack:75% atheist/agnostic disagree59% secular disagree54% unattached believers Agree
  • Support for same-sex marriage:89% atheist/agnostic70% secular57% unattached believers
  • Proportions:Whites = 63% of CatholicsHispanics = 29% of Catholics
  • Most of these differences are driven by racial/ethnic disparities:Catholics are 22% of gp and 22% of likely voters, but only because the underrepresentation by Latino Catholics is made up for by overrepresentation by white CatholicsRatio of white:Hispanic Catholic in gp is < 2:1, while ratio among likely voters is > 3:1.Drop in unaffiliated representation is mostly accounted for by drop in unattached believers among likely voters, which are higher minority pop.
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    • 1. THE 2012 AMERICAN VALUES SURVEYHow Catholics and the UnaffiliatedWill Shape the 2012 Elections and Beyond Public Public Religion Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO Religion Research Daniel Cox, Director of Research Research Juhem Navarro-Rivera, Research Associate Institute Institute
    • 2. Survey Methodology • Fourth annual American Values Survey • Sample Size: N = 3,003 Americans (MOE = +/- 2.0 percentage points) • Conducted between September 13 and September 30, 2012 • Bilingual (English and Spanish) telephone interviews (1,201 reached by cell phone) • Wave one of two-wave study (pre- and post-election) • Funded by Ford Foundation and the Nathan Cummings FoundationThe 2012 American Values Survey 2
    • 3. RELIGIOUS CHANGE IN AMERICAThe 2012 American Values Survey 3
    • 4. Changes from Childhood Religion Childhood Current Net Affiliation Affiliation Gain/Loss Catholic 31.4 22.0 -9.4 White Mainline 18.7 14.9 -3.8 Protestant Black Protestant 9.4 8.5 -0.9 White Evangelical 20.3 19.9 -0.4 Protestant Other Christian 9.5 10.4 0.9 Non-Christian 3.7 5.7 2 Religious Unaffiliated 7 18.6 11.6The 2012 American Values Survey 4
    • 5. Religious Affiliation by Generation Unaffiliated 18-29 32 9 12 8 10 11 13 6 White Evangelical Protestant White Mainline Protestant 30-49 19 18 14 13 11 8 11 6 White Catholic Hispanic/Other Catholic 50-64 14 25 15 18 6 10 8 5 Black Protestant Other Christian 65+ 9 30 20 19 5 6 7 4 Non-Christian Religious 0 20 40 60 80 100The 2012 American Values Survey 5
    • 6. Reasons for Leaving Childhood Religion Dont believe in God/Teachings 12 Personal experience/Grew out of it 23 Goes against science and logic 5 Dislike organized religion/Religion causes problems 5 Hypocritical 2 Judgmental/Controlling 4 Social/Sexuality issues 11 Sex abuse scandal within Catholic 5 Church Busy/Not interested No reason/Not sure 8 8 Other/Dont Know 16The 2012 American Values Survey 6
    • 7. UNDERSTANDING THE RELIGIOUSLY UNAFFILIATED OR “THE NONES” Atheists and Agnostics Seculars Unattached BelieversThe 2012 American Values Survey 7
    • 8. The Three Faces of the Unaffiliated 1 23 Secular 39 Atheist/Agnostic Unattached Believers Uncategorized 36The 2012 American Values Survey 8
    • 9. Religious Beliefs of Unaffiliated God is a person God is an impersonal force I do not believe in God Other/Dont know/Refused (VOL.) Atheist/ Agnostic 6 30 56 8 Secular 30 42 24 4 Unattached Believers 69 26 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100The 2012 American Values Survey 9
    • 10. Racial/Ethnic Difference amongUnaffiliated Subgroups White, Non-Hispanic Hispanic Black Other/Mixed Race DK/Refused Atheist/ Agnostic 76 10 2 10 Secular 64 14 7 10 Unattached Believers 56 12 23 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100The 2012 American Values Survey 10
    • 11. UNDERSTANDING THE COMPLEXITY OF AMERICAN CATHOLICS “Social Justice” vs. “Right to Life” CatholicsThe 2012 American Values Survey 11
    • 12. Social Justice vs. Right to Life OrientationsAmong Catholics and Former Catholics Social justice and the obligation to help the poor Issues like abortion and the right to life8070 7660 66 63 6050 57 52 5140 4030 36 31 2920 27 27 2110 0 All Catholics Former Catholics who White Catholics Former Hispanic Catholics who Catholic, now attend monthly Catholic, still Catholics attend weekly or unaffiliated or less religious moreThe 2012 American Values Survey 12
    • 13. Ethnic Complexity among Catholics:Differences between Whites & Hispanics White Catholics Hispanic Catholics 70 60 59 50 55 48 40 40 30 20 10 0 Abortion should be Illegal all/most cases Favor life in prison over death penaltyThe 2012 American Values Survey 13
    • 14. THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Religion and Voting CoalitionsThe 2012 American Values Survey 14
    • 15. Most Important Issues Influencing VoteAmong Likely Voters Republicans Democrats All Americans7060 66 6150 544030 2920 1810 14 8 9 6 4 3 8 2 3 2 1 2 1 3 3 1 0 The Economy Health care National Abortion Immigration Same-sex Other/Dont security marriage Know/RefusedThe 2012 American Values Survey 15
    • 16. Presidential Vote by ReligionAmong Likely Voters Obama Romney 100 97 80 76 73 60 52 49 40 45 47 20 20 22 0 2 White White Catholic Religiously Black Evangelical Mainline Unaffiliated Protestant Protestants ProtestantsThe 2012 American Values Survey 16
    • 17. Religious Voting CoalitionsAmong Likely Voters White Evangelical Protestant Obama’s Coalition Romney’s Coalition White Mainline 23 9 Protestant 8 *2 White Catholic 15 11 37 Hispanic/Other 3 7 Catholic 14 Other Christian 19 18 8 6 Black Protestant 19 Non-Christian Religious UnaffiliatedThe 2012 American Values Survey 17
    • 18. Complexity of Catholic VotersBy Ethnicity and Gender Obama Romney 80 70 71 60 50 54 54 54 49 47 40 42 42 42 30 20 23 10 0 All Catholics Hispanic * Women White Men *Note: Hispanic Catholic results are among registered voters and represent small sample size (n=98).The 2012 American Values Survey 18
    • 19. Complexity of Catholic VotersBy Religious Orientation and Behavior Obama Romney Other/DK100% 90% 47 59 36 67 37 80% 70% 60% 59 60 50% 40% 49 30% 37 20% 27 10% 0% All Catholic Attend Attend Right to life Social Justice Voters Weekly/More Monthly/Less (28% of (63% of (45% of (55% of Voters) voters) voters) voters)The 2012 American Values Survey 19
    • 20. CONTRACEPTION AND GENDER ROLESThe 2012 American Values Survey 20
    • 21. Contraception Mandate and ReligiousObjections Religiously affiliated colleges and hospitals should have to provide employees with no-cost contraception coverage. Yes, Even if Organization has Religious Objections Yes, Religious Objections Not Specified 56 All Americans 56 57 All Catholics 54 50 White Catholics 45 0 10 20 30 40 50 60The 2012 American Values Survey 21
    • 22. Women and Raising Children Women are naturally better suited to raise children than men. Percent who agree Men Women 80 70 69 60 65 62 50 54 54 52 51 47 48 49 40 30 20 10 0 All Americans 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+The 2012 American Values Survey 22
    • 23. LOOKING AHEAD: IMPORTANCE OF VOTER ENGAGEMENTThe 2012 American Values Survey 23
    • 24. Voter EngagementAmong Unaffiliated and Catholics 100 20 23 15 17 White evangelical White mainline 14 White Catholic 50 16 Hispanic/Other Catholic 8 5 Black protestant 8 9 Other Christian 10 Non-Christian 8 6 Unaffiliated 6 19 16 0 All Americans Likely VotersThe 2012 American Values Survey 24
    • 25. The 2012 American Values SurveyHow Catholics and the UnaffiliatedWill Shape the 2012 Elections and Beyond Follow us Online: www.facebook.com/publicreligion www.twitter.com/publicreligion www.publicreligion.org Public Religion Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO Research Daniel Cox, Director of Research Juhem Navarro-Rivera, Research Associate Institute

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