2020 Forecast:Creating the Future ofLearningCenter for Teaching and Learning InnovationJuly 21, 2009Based on 2020 Forecast by Knowledge Works

1993 The World Forever ChangedMosiac browser introducedVisionaries predicted online distance learning and were often scoffed at. But now ….http://www.computerhistory.org/timeline/?category=net

What are we doing today that was unimaginable to most just a dozen years ago?“100 Things Your Kids May Never Know About”(A selected sample)#4 The number TV Channels being a single digit#39 Doing bank business only when the bank is open. #57 Typewriters.#70 Taking turns picking a radio station, or selecting a tape, for everyone to listen to during a long drive. #77 Relying on the 5-minute sport segment on the nightly news for baseball highlights.YouTubeWikisMedical AdvancesGPSPharmaceuticalDVRsWhat Else?From: http://www.wired.com/geekdad/2009/07/100-things-your-kids-may-never-know-about/

What is the 2020 Forecast?We want to provide information that empowers you to become leaders in creating the learning ecosystem of tomorrow.

What is the 2020 Forecast?This forecast is a tool to help you imagine your options and make the best choices in the next decade—to fundamentally rethink your role and that of your organization.

How is 2020 Being Used?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKVNmrLTIt8http://www.futureofed.org/taking-action/scenario-planning/ohio/

Change ConversationsFour narratives for change in higher education: Ossified Institution Global Commonwealth Flat World Digital Natives

Ossified Institution

Global Commonwealth

Flat World

Digital Natives

Change Conversations“Ossified Institution”“If American higher education is to thrive in the 21st century, colleges and universities, like Wall Street and Detroit, must be rigorously regulated and completely restructured.”“The division-of-labor model of separate departments is obsolete and must be replaced with a curriculum structured like a web or complex adaptive network.”**Mark C. Taylor, the chairman of the religion department at Columbia, NYT 4/26/09

Change Conversations“Ossified Institution”"It's appalling how little genuine innovation has gone on in higher education... [it] took us 25 years to get the overhead projector from the bowling alley to the classroom." ** Paul LeBlanc, President Southern New Hampshire University

Change Conversations“Global Commonwealth”

Change Conversations“Flat World”Rapid innovation, global labor, distributed knowledge Multiple careers, continuous lifelong educationCreativity and innovation essential for survival

Rapid innovation, global labor, distributed knowledge

Multiple careers, continuous lifelong education

Creativity and innovation essential for survival

Change Conversations“Digital Natives” “Schooled on Google and Wikipedia, they want to inquire, not rely on the professor for a detailed roadmap. They want an animated conversation, not a lecture. They want an interactive education, not a broadcast one that might have been perfectly fine for the Industrial Age, or even for boomers.”Higher Education Is Stuck in the Middle Ages -- Will Universities Adapt or Die Off in Our Digital World?Don Tapscott, author of “Grown Up Digital “

Transformation of education debate“Digital Natives”Minds on Fire: Open Education, the Long Tail, and Learning 2.0, John Seely Brown and Richard P. AdlerEDUCAUSE Review, vol. 43, no. 1 (January/February 2008): 16–32

Change ConversationsVisualizing forces for and calls for changeTwo Videos:Did You Know? A Vision of Students TodayAdvance to next slide to view “Did You Know?”

Change ConversationsVisualizing forces for and calls for changeTwo Videos:Did You Know? A Vision of Students TodayAdvance to next slide to view “A Vision of Students Today.”

Change ConversationsScenario Planning: Trends meet resistanceFrom The Edinburgh Scenarios, Global Business Network

Change ConversationsEdinburgh Scenarios for Distance LearningFrom The Edinburgh Scenarios, Global Business Network

What do YOU Think?In 2020, what do you think education will look like?

Education Landscape Changing?1990s:Consuming2000s: Participating2010s: CreatingMark Gibson Consulting

Who are today’s learning agents?Think broadly about the people and organizations that facilitate learning, training, human development and access to resources for eachLibrariansConsultantsCommunity OrganizersBloggersSocial Network ConnectionsWriters/JournalistsCounselorsMentorsTrainers

Who are tomorrow’s learning agents?Learning Agents in the context of Vision 2020 (think of education as an ecosystem)Learning Fitness InstructorCommunity Intelligence CartographerEducation SousveyorSocial Capital Platform DeveloperLearning PartnerLearning Journey MentorAssessment Designer

DriversTrends Signals AgentsThe components of the 2020 map

SelfOrganizationsSystemSocietyEconomyKnowledgeWhat may learning look like as a result of each driver?In small groups, investigate a driver and related trends, signals and agents

Signals to explore:Nootropics – Pharmaceutical cognitive enhancements. UG 99 – Our grain supply at risk?Mind Hacks – Using brain research to improve mental performanceDrivers Self: Altered Bodies

Signals to explore:Wisdom of Crowds: Harnessing the power of many voices. (see Slideshare)Social Bookmarking: Sharing expertise, following the mavenOpen Courseware: Abundance and ubiquity of learning materialsDrivers Amplified Organization

Signals to explore:Local is the “new black”Local Matters: Farmers markets & Locavore movementSimply Living: Sustainability and local powerThe Groupery: Online organizing toolsDrivers Platforms for Resiliance

Signals to explore:“Everyone coming together” Haven’t we heard this before?Columbus Underground – online civic discourseWorld Changing – Global crisis foster global civic identityTension between fundamentalism and globalismDrivers A New Civic Discourse

Signals to explore:The World Is Flat on hyperdrive. The means of production are widely distributed and accessibleFab Labs: Design your ownEtsy: Sell your ownBlurb: Publish your ownDrivers Maker Economy

Signals to explore:Mining data to detect patterns and correlationsPrediction Markets: the pulse of opinionWolfram Alpha: the semantic webAction Analytics: Accountability meets granular measurementFreakonomics: Behavioral EconomicsDrivers Pattern Recognition

What are the implications for Columbus State?Are we aware of trends?What are implications of renewed federal support for community colleges?Are there obstacles or forces of resistance?Where are we leading the way?Where are the business opportunities?Can we keep doing what we are doing or do we need to change our practices?