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Speaker: CHRIS BAYER
Candidate for Ph.D. in International Development
Virtual Town Hall Meeting Series on
3rd Party Ecosystem Risks in a Changing Climate of Regulations and Activism
Dodd-Frank
Section 1502:
Stag Hunt
presents
2
RiskWatch Virtual Town Hall
Dodd-Frank Section 1502: Stag Hunt
August 6, 2013
Chris Bayer
PhD Candidate
Tulane University
Part 1 ā€“ Conflict Minerals
3
Stag Hunt
4
vs.
Stag Hunt
ā€¢ Two hunters. Two types of game are available: stag or hare
ā€¢ To shoot a stag, you must have the cooperation of the
other in order to succeed ā€“ but a hare you can get by
yourself
ā€¢ Dilemma: you will definitely eat if you yourself go after the
hare, but the outcome of the stag score is less certain
ā€¢ 2 risks: stag is never shot, or the other hunter defects
ā€¢ Do you take the risk of cooperation, or do you do your
own thing?
5
Possible stag hunt scenarios
in conflict mineral case
1. mineral-based industry exposing itself to the DRC
situation in the 90s and first decade in 2000
2. re-organization of supply chain systems under Dodd-
Frank (e.g. information sharing platforms)
3. participation in 2013 Tulane survey
ā€¢ prerequisite: pre-competitive organization
6
Tulaneā€™s 2011 projection
Task 3rd model estimation of costs
1. Strengthening internal
management systems in view of
performing due diligence
$26 million for the 5,994 issuers; $5.14
billion for 1st tier suppliers to those
issuers, for a total of $5.17 billion
2. Instituting the necessary IT
systems (to collect information
and maintain auditable records for
the SEC)
$884 million for issuers who are small
companies; $1.68 billion for issuers who
are large companies, for a total of $2.56
billion
3. Commissioning CMR audit As only issuers are required to conduct
audits: $81 million for issuers who are
small companies; $126 million for
issuers who are large companies, for a
total of $207 million
Total $7.93 billion
(including internal company labor) 7
Recent relevance
ā€¢ On July 23, 2013 the SEC won a ruling from U.S.
District Judge Robert Wilkins in Washington, D.C..
ā€¢ He said the agency had not acted arbitrarily or
capriciously in its rulemaking on the conflict
minerals law.
ā€¢ Wilkinsā€™ ruling pointed out that the SEC had
ā€œplaced particular emphasisā€ on the cost studies
from Tulane and NAM in finalizing the rules, even
though the industry disagreed with the final
requirement
8
ā€¢ But what efforts and resources are
companies now actually expending in
order to comply?
ā€¢ Enter Tulaneā€™s July/August 2013 survey
9
http://www.payson.tulane.edu/dfs1502-survey-corporate-efforts
10
Tulaneā€™s July/August 2013 survey
Section # of questions
A. Company Profile 8
B. Overall Implementation Status 2
C. Internal Resources Leveraged 1
D. External Resources Leveraged 5
E. Synergy 9
F. Perceived Advantages 1
G. Legislative Alternatives 1
11
Two reasons for participating
ā€¢ Learn what your peers are doing
ā€¢ Macro-level picture will allow stakeholders to
appreciate economic impact of law
(If you havenā€™t already, please participate in the survey)
12
Part 2 ā€“ The Bigger Picture
13
A few milestones of disclosure law
ā€¢ Securities Exchange Act of 1934
ā€“ to help the symmetry of information assumption along,
Congress crafted a mandatory disclosure process in which
companies make information public that investors would
find pertinent to making investment decisions
ā€¢ Home Mortgage Disclosure Act of 1975
ā€“ provides to the public loan data that can be used to assist:
ā€¢ in determining whether financial institutions are serving the
housing needs of their communities
ā€¢ in distributing public-sector investments in identifying possible
discriminatory lending patterns
ā€¢ Sarbanesā€“Oxley Act of 2002
ā€“ requires internal controls for assuring accuracy of financial
reports
ā€“ mandates enhanced financial disclosures
14
The two other 2010
ā€œSpecialized Corporate Disclosureā€ laws
ā€¢ Section 1503 requires any reporting issuer that is a mine
operator, or has a subsidiary that is an operator, to disclose
to the SEC information related to health and safety
violations, including the number of certain violations,
orders, and citations received from the Mine Safety and
Health Administration (MSHA)
ā€¢ Section 1504 requires reporting issuers engaged in the
commercial development of oil, natural gas, or minerals to
disclose in an annual report certain payments made to the
United States or a foreign government
ā€“ Under the new ā€œDisclosure of Payments by Resource Extraction
Issuersā€ Rule adopted in late August 2012, issuers must disclose
all payments (or aggregation of related payments) of $100,000
or more to foreign (and U.S.) governments for such activities
Source: SEC. http://www.sec.gov/spotlight/dodd-frank/speccorpdisclosure.shtml
15
Global Compact
Global Compact, a 1999 UN-spearheaded multi-
stakeholder initiative resulting in the formulation of 10 CSR
principles:
Principle 1
ā€¢ Businesses should support and respect the protection of
internationally proclaimed human rights within their
sphere of influence.
Principle 2
ā€¢ Businesses should ensure that their own operations are
not complicit in human rights abuses.
ā€“ DO NO HARM! - Donā€™t do business with human rights
violators 16
DRC engagement prospects
ā€¢ Engaging the Congo is in our national interest
o DRC is under-leveraged ā€“ offers high return on the dollar
ļ‚§ e.g. the China deal: $ 6 billion worth of infrastructure in exchange for $50 billion dollars
worth of minerals ā€“ which translates to a profit of 833%
o One estimation has the DRCā€™s mineral deposits worth $24 trillion
o The Congo rainforest is the worldā€™s second largest carbon sink
o If Afghanistan taught us anything is that the world canā€™t afford failed
states
ā€¢ Relative security conditions a prerequisite for constructive
engagement
o Risk of engagement are high
ļ‚§ Security, in spite of the 17,000 UN troops in the Congo
ļ‚§ chaotic regulatory environment / broken contracts
o Not deterring China / India
17
Conflict ā€“ commodity link
ā€¢ In the last 60 years, at least 40 per cent of all
intrastate conflicts had a link to natural resources
ā€“ this link doubles the risk of a conflict relapse in the first five years
ā€¢ as per the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
ā€¢ Since 1990, at least 18 violent conflicts have been
fuelled by the exploitation of natural resources
ā€“ whether ā€˜high-valueā€™ resources like timber, diamonds, gold,
minerals and oil
ā€“ or scarce ones like fertile land and water
ā€¢ With how many other armed groups, with ā€œresource
imperativesā€ causing human rights violations, are we
indirectly doing business?
Source: UNEP. http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/pcdmb_policy_01.pdf
18
Universality of the D-F Section 1502 principle
19
Violent conflicts in 2011
Source: Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research
20
21
Source: USGS. http://afghanistan.cr.usgs.gov/hyperspectral-maps
22

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Chris Bayer of Tulane Study on Conflict Minerals talks about their 2013 follow-up survey at a RiskWatch Virtual Town Hall Meeting

  • 1. Speaker: CHRIS BAYER Candidate for Ph.D. in International Development Virtual Town Hall Meeting Series on 3rd Party Ecosystem Risks in a Changing Climate of Regulations and Activism Dodd-Frank Section 1502: Stag Hunt presents
  • 2. 2 RiskWatch Virtual Town Hall Dodd-Frank Section 1502: Stag Hunt August 6, 2013 Chris Bayer PhD Candidate Tulane University
  • 3. Part 1 ā€“ Conflict Minerals 3
  • 5. Stag Hunt ā€¢ Two hunters. Two types of game are available: stag or hare ā€¢ To shoot a stag, you must have the cooperation of the other in order to succeed ā€“ but a hare you can get by yourself ā€¢ Dilemma: you will definitely eat if you yourself go after the hare, but the outcome of the stag score is less certain ā€¢ 2 risks: stag is never shot, or the other hunter defects ā€¢ Do you take the risk of cooperation, or do you do your own thing? 5
  • 6. Possible stag hunt scenarios in conflict mineral case 1. mineral-based industry exposing itself to the DRC situation in the 90s and first decade in 2000 2. re-organization of supply chain systems under Dodd- Frank (e.g. information sharing platforms) 3. participation in 2013 Tulane survey ā€¢ prerequisite: pre-competitive organization 6
  • 7. Tulaneā€™s 2011 projection Task 3rd model estimation of costs 1. Strengthening internal management systems in view of performing due diligence $26 million for the 5,994 issuers; $5.14 billion for 1st tier suppliers to those issuers, for a total of $5.17 billion 2. Instituting the necessary IT systems (to collect information and maintain auditable records for the SEC) $884 million for issuers who are small companies; $1.68 billion for issuers who are large companies, for a total of $2.56 billion 3. Commissioning CMR audit As only issuers are required to conduct audits: $81 million for issuers who are small companies; $126 million for issuers who are large companies, for a total of $207 million Total $7.93 billion (including internal company labor) 7
  • 8. Recent relevance ā€¢ On July 23, 2013 the SEC won a ruling from U.S. District Judge Robert Wilkins in Washington, D.C.. ā€¢ He said the agency had not acted arbitrarily or capriciously in its rulemaking on the conflict minerals law. ā€¢ Wilkinsā€™ ruling pointed out that the SEC had ā€œplaced particular emphasisā€ on the cost studies from Tulane and NAM in finalizing the rules, even though the industry disagreed with the final requirement 8
  • 9. ā€¢ But what efforts and resources are companies now actually expending in order to comply? ā€¢ Enter Tulaneā€™s July/August 2013 survey 9
  • 11. Tulaneā€™s July/August 2013 survey Section # of questions A. Company Profile 8 B. Overall Implementation Status 2 C. Internal Resources Leveraged 1 D. External Resources Leveraged 5 E. Synergy 9 F. Perceived Advantages 1 G. Legislative Alternatives 1 11
  • 12. Two reasons for participating ā€¢ Learn what your peers are doing ā€¢ Macro-level picture will allow stakeholders to appreciate economic impact of law (If you havenā€™t already, please participate in the survey) 12
  • 13. Part 2 ā€“ The Bigger Picture 13
  • 14. A few milestones of disclosure law ā€¢ Securities Exchange Act of 1934 ā€“ to help the symmetry of information assumption along, Congress crafted a mandatory disclosure process in which companies make information public that investors would find pertinent to making investment decisions ā€¢ Home Mortgage Disclosure Act of 1975 ā€“ provides to the public loan data that can be used to assist: ā€¢ in determining whether financial institutions are serving the housing needs of their communities ā€¢ in distributing public-sector investments in identifying possible discriminatory lending patterns ā€¢ Sarbanesā€“Oxley Act of 2002 ā€“ requires internal controls for assuring accuracy of financial reports ā€“ mandates enhanced financial disclosures 14
  • 15. The two other 2010 ā€œSpecialized Corporate Disclosureā€ laws ā€¢ Section 1503 requires any reporting issuer that is a mine operator, or has a subsidiary that is an operator, to disclose to the SEC information related to health and safety violations, including the number of certain violations, orders, and citations received from the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) ā€¢ Section 1504 requires reporting issuers engaged in the commercial development of oil, natural gas, or minerals to disclose in an annual report certain payments made to the United States or a foreign government ā€“ Under the new ā€œDisclosure of Payments by Resource Extraction Issuersā€ Rule adopted in late August 2012, issuers must disclose all payments (or aggregation of related payments) of $100,000 or more to foreign (and U.S.) governments for such activities Source: SEC. http://www.sec.gov/spotlight/dodd-frank/speccorpdisclosure.shtml 15
  • 16. Global Compact Global Compact, a 1999 UN-spearheaded multi- stakeholder initiative resulting in the formulation of 10 CSR principles: Principle 1 ā€¢ Businesses should support and respect the protection of internationally proclaimed human rights within their sphere of influence. Principle 2 ā€¢ Businesses should ensure that their own operations are not complicit in human rights abuses. ā€“ DO NO HARM! - Donā€™t do business with human rights violators 16
  • 17. DRC engagement prospects ā€¢ Engaging the Congo is in our national interest o DRC is under-leveraged ā€“ offers high return on the dollar ļ‚§ e.g. the China deal: $ 6 billion worth of infrastructure in exchange for $50 billion dollars worth of minerals ā€“ which translates to a profit of 833% o One estimation has the DRCā€™s mineral deposits worth $24 trillion o The Congo rainforest is the worldā€™s second largest carbon sink o If Afghanistan taught us anything is that the world canā€™t afford failed states ā€¢ Relative security conditions a prerequisite for constructive engagement o Risk of engagement are high ļ‚§ Security, in spite of the 17,000 UN troops in the Congo ļ‚§ chaotic regulatory environment / broken contracts o Not deterring China / India 17
  • 18. Conflict ā€“ commodity link ā€¢ In the last 60 years, at least 40 per cent of all intrastate conflicts had a link to natural resources ā€“ this link doubles the risk of a conflict relapse in the first five years ā€¢ as per the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) ā€¢ Since 1990, at least 18 violent conflicts have been fuelled by the exploitation of natural resources ā€“ whether ā€˜high-valueā€™ resources like timber, diamonds, gold, minerals and oil ā€“ or scarce ones like fertile land and water ā€¢ With how many other armed groups, with ā€œresource imperativesā€ causing human rights violations, are we indirectly doing business? Source: UNEP. http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/pcdmb_policy_01.pdf 18
  • 19. Universality of the D-F Section 1502 principle 19
  • 20. Violent conflicts in 2011 Source: Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research 20
  • 22. 22

Editor's Notes

  1. Some people say Dodd-Frank Section 1502 was a fluke, piggybacking on the Wall Street reform push. In fact, disclosure law does have quite a history, starting with theā€¦sense of Congress in 1934 that it needed to systemically correct the asymmetry of information in the market - in favor of the investoredging a little closer to the ā€œperfect informationā€ assumption underlying the free market utopia of neo-classical economicsWe also have the home
  2. There are also two other corporate disclosure laws in DF Section 1502:- One concerns information on mine health and safety violations that mine operators must release - And the second concerns disclosure of ā€œpaymentsā€ to governments in the oil, gas and mineral industry ā€“ a stipulation in line with the publish what you pay movement
  3. Dodd-Frank S 1502 also in line with Global Compact principles:
  4. Concerning the long-term engagement prospects, engaging ā€¦There was for example a recent deal that China made with the DRC, in which China would install We are approaching ā€¦However, relativeā€¦
  5. We should also keep in mind that the conflict ā€“ commodity link is not just found in the DRCSo the question that needs to be asked is:
  6. There are roughly 70 conflicts worldwide that are in part caused by a competition for resources, some of which are high intensity conflicts.
  7. And this is a map showing the violent conflict hot-spots in 2011, some of which are fuelled by commodity extraction.
  8. In the news it was recently announced that American geologists found on their mineral deposits a Central Asian country ā€“ can you guess which one?Using satellites, USGSdetermined that it holds over $1 trillion worth of minerals.Do you think that country could also benefit from preventative conflict mineral measures?