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Analytical modeling is the starting point in understanding and observing a company’s
risk bases as well as ascertaining the effectiveness of claim management and loss control
activities. RSC has developed numerous analytical and decision-making tools to help
clients and underwriters better understand a clients risk and to guide reductions in the
overall cost of risk.
Analytical modeling is effectively integrated into the marketing, servicing, claims and loss
control activities of clients making it relevant to the overall risk management process.
Our analytical modeling has multiple internal and external applications to our clients with
regard to:

    • Forecasting
    • Identifying trends
    • Loss causes
    • Accrual and Collateral evaluations
    • Allocations
    • Benchmarking
    • Retention level analysis
    • Cash flow studies

 Properly annualizing losses is an important function to better focusing loss prevention
 and claim activities as well. It also creates accountability and validates management
 decisions regarding the treatment of risk in the organization.
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Sample, Inc.
                                     Rate Comparison by Location




           Location 1                                                  Loss Rate 2/1/09
                                                                       Loss Rate 5/1/09

           Location 2



           Location 3
Location




           Location 4



           Location 5


                                                                           All-Year Rates
           Location 6                                                          Q1 = 1.988
                                                                               Q2 = 2.005


           Location 7



           Location 8


                        0        2                     4           6                        8
                            Q1       Q2
                                                     Loss Rate
Sample, Inc.
                      Estimated Cost at Various Loss Levels @ 10% Discount Rate



                                                                                Insurance Co. 1

1,700,000                                                                       Insurance Co. 2

                        Equilibrium is at                                       Guaranteed Cost
                      approximately $390K
                           of losses.

1,200,000




 700,000



                                                        Carrier Pick RSC Low Pick      RSC High Pick
                                                          $460K        $530K              $740K
 200,000
            100,000      200,000    300,000   400,000      500,000    600,000       700,000       800,000   900,000

                                                        Loss Levels
Sample, Inc.
                                                   Loss Breakout - Incurred
                                                        by Site Location


                                         % of
Site Location       Total Incurred
                                       Incurred
                                                                           All Others
Location 1      $         394,559.56      39.99%
                                                                            13.23%
Location 2      $         236,663.33      23.99%
Location 3      $         224,857.40      22.79%
All Others      $         130,506.24      13.23%
Location 4      $          58,043.83       5.88%
Location 5      $          35,388.56       3.59%                                             Location 1
Location 6      $          26,169.82       2.65%                                              39.99%
Location 7      $          10,904.03       1.11%
TOTAL           $       986,586.53      100.00%
                                                          Location 3
                                                           22.79%




                                                                                Location 2
                                                                                 23.99%
Sample, Inc.
                                                Loss Breakout - Incurred
                                                       by Claimant



   Claimant                        % of Total
    Name          Total Incurred   Incurred
Claimant 1    $          525,861    29.76%                                          Claimant 1
                                                    All Others
Claimant 2    $          313,579    17.75%                                           29.76%
Claimant 3    $          142,260     8.05%
                                                     35.58%
Claimant 4    $           84,444     4.78%
Claimant 5    $           72,189     4.09%
All Others    $          628,675    35.58%
Claimant 6    $           67,349    3.16%
Claimant 7    $           67,000    3.16%
Claimant 8    $           66,107    3.11%
Claimant 9    $           48,597    2.28%
Claimant 10   $           47,102    2.21%
Claimant 11   $           45,515    2.14%
Claimant 12   $           43,350    2.04%
Claimant 13   $           36,255    1.70%           Claimant 5
Claimant 14   $           34,684    1.63%             4.09%
Claimant 15   $           34,492    1.62%
Claimant 16   $           34,196    1.61%
Claimant 17   $           29,001    1.36%                                            Claimant 2
                                                         Claimant 4
Claimant 18   $           25,959    1.22%                                             17.75%
Claimant 19   $           24,663    1.16%                  4.78%       Claimant 3
Claimant 20   $           24,407    1.15%                                8.05%
Grand Total   $        1,767,007     100%
Sample, Inc.
                                    Repeat Claimants - Largest Incurred


   Claimant         Total      % of Total
    Name          Incurred     Incurred
Claimant 1    $      525,861    30.93%            33.04%
Claimant 2    $      313,579    18.45%                                    30.93%
Claimant 3    $      142,260     8.37%
Claimant 4    $       84,444     4.97%
Claimant 5    $       72,189     4.25%
Claimant 6    $      561,675    33.04%
Claimant 7    $       67,349    3.16%
Claimant 8    $       66,107    3.11%
Claimant 9    $       48,597    2.28%
Claimant 10   $       47,102    2.21%
Claimant 11   $       45,515    2.14%
Claimant 12   $       43,350    2.04%           4.25%
Claimant 13   $       36,255    1.70%
Claimant 14   $       34,684    1.63%
Claimant 15   $       34,492    1.62%
Claimant 16   $       34,196    1.61%
Claimant 17   $       29,001    1.36%                   4.97%
Claimant 18   $       25,959    1.22%                                     18.45%
Claimant 19   $       24,663    1.16%
Claimant 20   $       24,407    1.15%                           8.37%
Grand Total   $ 1,700,007        100%
Sample, Inc.
                                                  Loss Breakout - Incurred
                                                         by Body Part


                                               % of
      Body Part           Total Incurred
                                             Incurred
Spine                 $         345,521.00     25.83%                              Spine
Knee                  $         256,467.61     19.17%                             25.83%
Wrist                 $         224,056.81     16.75%       All Others
All Others            $         511,676.43     38.25%        38.25%
Shoulder(s)           $          85,606.48      6.40%
Foot                  $          70,639.62      5.28%
Neck                  $          56,933.89      4.26%
Lower back area       $          56,781.65      4.24%
Ankle                 $          49,595.84      3.71%
Abdomen               $          40,320.17      3.01%
Finger(s)             $          35,664.70      2.67%
Hand                  $          26,954.64      2.01%
Disc                  $          19,266.38      1.44%
Upper back area       $          18,328.89      1.37%
                                                                                    Knee
Multiple Body Parts   $          12,744.33      0.95%
                                                                                   19.17%
Upper Arm             $          11,997.44      0.90%
Lower Leg             $          10,299.18      0.77%
Face                  $           7,484.15      0.56%                     Wrist
Skull                 $           4,941.12      0.37%                    16.75%
Eye(s)                $           4,117.95      0.31%
TOTAL                 $      1,337,721.85    100.00%
Sample, Inc.
                                      Loss Breakout - Count
                                          by Site Location


                Total
Site Location            % of Count
                Count
Location 1          66       15.53%                   All Others
Location 2         169       39.76%                     7.53%
Location 3         158       37.18%                                Location 1
All Others          32        7.53%                                 15.53%
Location 4          14        3.29%
Location 5           7        1.65%
Location 6           9        2.12%
Location 7           2        0.47%
TOTAL              425     100.00%
                                         Location 3
                                          37.18%




                                                                     Location 2
                                                                      39.76%
Sample, Inc.
                               Loss Breakout - Count
                                     by Claimant



   Claimant   Claim   % of
    Name      Total   Total                                     Claimant 2
                                                   Claimant 1
Claimant 1     5      4.10%                          4.10%        7.38%
Claimant 2     9      7.38%
Claimant 3     8      6.56%                                            Claimant 3
Claimant 4     8      6.56%
                                                                         6.56%
Claimant 5     7      5.74%
All Others     85     69.67%
Claimant 6     6      1.63%
Claimant 8     6      1.63%                                                  Claimant 4
Claimant 9     14     1.63%
                                                                               6.56%
Claimant 10    6      1.63%
Claimant 11    5      1.36%
Claimant 12    1      1.36%
Claimant 13    3      1.36%
Claimant 14    5      1.36%                                                   Claimant 5
Claimant 15    5      1.36%                                                     5.74%
Claimant 16    5      1.36%
Claimant 17    8      1.36%     All Others
Claimant 18    9      1.36%
                                 69.67%
Claimant 19    8      1.09%
Claimant 20    4      1.09%
Grand Total   122     100%
Sample, Inc.
                        Repeat Claimants - Largest Claim Count


   Claimant   Claim   % of
    Name      Total   Total                            9.57%
Claimant 1     11     9.57%
Claimant 2     9      7.83%                                      7.83%
Claimant 3     8      6.96%
Claimant 4     8      6.96%
Claimant 5     7      6.09%
Claimant 6     72     62.61%
Claimant 7     6      1.63%                                         6.96%
Claimant 8     6      1.63%
Claimant 9     6      1.63%
Claimant 10    6      1.63%
Claimant 11    5      1.36%
Claimant 12    5      1.36%      62.61%
                                                                    6.96%
Claimant 13    5      1.36%
Claimant 14    5      1.36%
Claimant 15    5      1.36%
Claimant 16    5      1.36%
Claimant 17    5      1.36%
Claimant 18    5      1.36%                                      6.09%
Claimant 19    4      1.09%
Claimant 20    4      1.09%
Grand Total   115     100%
Sample, Inc.
                                          Loss Breakout - Count
                                               by Body Part


                      Total     % of
      Body Part                                                   Spine
                      Count    Count                                      Knee
Spine                      2      0.53%                           0.53%
                                                                          9.36%
Knee                      35      9.36%
Wrist                     21      5.61%
                                                                                  Wrist
All Others               316     84.49%
Shoulder(s)               17      4.55%                                           5.61%
Foot                      22      5.88%
Neck                       1      0.27%
Lower back area           52     13.90%
Ankle                     25      6.68%
Abdomen                    8      2.14%
Finger(s)                 69     18.45%
Hand                      37      9.89%
Disc                       4      1.07%
Upper back area            8      2.14%
Multiple Body Parts        7      1.87%
Upper Arm                  8      2.14%
Lower Leg                 13      3.48%            All Others
Face                      10      2.67%             84.49%
Skull                     16      4.28%
Eye(s)                    19      5.08%
TOTAL                    374   100.00%

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Understanding Risk Through Analytical Modeling

  • 1. Analytical modeling is the starting point in understanding and observing a company’s risk bases as well as ascertaining the effectiveness of claim management and loss control activities. RSC has developed numerous analytical and decision-making tools to help clients and underwriters better understand a clients risk and to guide reductions in the overall cost of risk. Analytical modeling is effectively integrated into the marketing, servicing, claims and loss control activities of clients making it relevant to the overall risk management process. Our analytical modeling has multiple internal and external applications to our clients with regard to: • Forecasting • Identifying trends • Loss causes • Accrual and Collateral evaluations • Allocations • Benchmarking • Retention level analysis • Cash flow studies Properly annualizing losses is an important function to better focusing loss prevention and claim activities as well. It also creates accountability and validates management decisions regarding the treatment of risk in the organization.
  • 2. . ~ 0 L( O' ~ 0 0 O' c ~ 0 L( o CO ~ ~ 0 (1 Q) ã5 0 CO a: ii ~ 0 ë .. L( f' ~ .. :i ~ 0 Ü 0 f' (/ (1 Y: ~ 0 L( i: f' CO .2 ~ ~ 0 (1 fd 0 CO ei ~ ro 0 ~ 0 ;; ã5 L( o .Q L( (/ ~ ~ ~~ 0 :¡ o ro ° i: .- tJ CO L( I1 (, .. ~ I1 ~ 0 -. ll L( Ct ~ 0 .~~ 0 -. (J tJ ~ ~ 0 C tJ ti L( C' o ~ 0 .. ~ 0 ~ cu (/ C' ~ 0 C. C) Q) L( Ct (/ N E ~ (/ ~ 0 CO .. .3 0 N en § ~ ~ 0 "' L( .. :~ ~ 0 "' 0 .. i: ~ 0 0 .. ~ 0 L( (h .. I10 ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 q o. q o. 0 o. (/ I1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (/ (/ f' CO L( -. C' N .. 0 .. ~ o .. -. C' N f' co f' co O' C' -. C' f' 0 co O' .. co L( O' co L( .. co .. co NON C' co co .. O' .. O' C' -. .g ¡i, Q)T5~.. c:~ ..~u,""ca+= I/ ll co 0 N C' -. co f' O' .~ÑmoomriÑ~~~ . N ririò~OOÑ~ 0 N C' L( f' 0 C' co .. f' O' L( f' 0 co co co co C' -. -. co L( co co 0 co f' C' -. ;;cnO)~i3a5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. N N N N N C' C' C' -. -. L( 'EQ)ca..::~~ Q) :5 .~ :: lh en )( .. ~ro~~(J.. c.~~~~Ln - en en C ro ~ (/ ~ '¡: .- :J z. en (f:5afU(1Q) o .. t~ cro ~uõ.g~£ _uE-Q)~ .. Õ°tl'S~O (JXo-°ãi en ~ :¡ ~ i: ~ 0 'è~ 0 ~ 0 ~ 0 ': ':':I~ I~ ~ l f- ~g¡Q)(Ju.c ë~o.."O-=æ ~;:Ll co æ~ Ef: 0 '; '; ': ': o 0 10 0 '* ?f ?f '; 0 ': 0 Q) L( 0 L( 0 L( 0 L( ~~-æ ~~~ 0 o L( 10 L( o L( 0 L( L( 0 L( CJ ~ .. N N C' C' L( co co f' f' co co O' O' Q)g~æëi: Q) ii -. -. 1L( t::§*i3e.Q ~: I ~.- :i ti ~ "1.'
  • 3. Sample, Inc. Rate Comparison by Location Location 1 Loss Rate 2/1/09 Loss Rate 5/1/09 Location 2 Location 3 Location Location 4 Location 5 All-Year Rates Location 6 Q1 = 1.988 Q2 = 2.005 Location 7 Location 8 0 2 4 6 8 Q1 Q2 Loss Rate
  • 4. Sample, Inc. Estimated Cost at Various Loss Levels @ 10% Discount Rate Insurance Co. 1 1,700,000 Insurance Co. 2 Equilibrium is at Guaranteed Cost approximately $390K of losses. 1,200,000 700,000 Carrier Pick RSC Low Pick RSC High Pick $460K $530K $740K 200,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 Loss Levels
  • 5. Sample, Inc. Loss Breakout - Incurred by Site Location % of Site Location Total Incurred Incurred All Others Location 1 $ 394,559.56 39.99% 13.23% Location 2 $ 236,663.33 23.99% Location 3 $ 224,857.40 22.79% All Others $ 130,506.24 13.23% Location 4 $ 58,043.83 5.88% Location 5 $ 35,388.56 3.59% Location 1 Location 6 $ 26,169.82 2.65% 39.99% Location 7 $ 10,904.03 1.11% TOTAL $ 986,586.53 100.00% Location 3 22.79% Location 2 23.99%
  • 6. Sample, Inc. Loss Breakout - Incurred by Claimant Claimant % of Total Name Total Incurred Incurred Claimant 1 $ 525,861 29.76% Claimant 1 All Others Claimant 2 $ 313,579 17.75% 29.76% Claimant 3 $ 142,260 8.05% 35.58% Claimant 4 $ 84,444 4.78% Claimant 5 $ 72,189 4.09% All Others $ 628,675 35.58% Claimant 6 $ 67,349 3.16% Claimant 7 $ 67,000 3.16% Claimant 8 $ 66,107 3.11% Claimant 9 $ 48,597 2.28% Claimant 10 $ 47,102 2.21% Claimant 11 $ 45,515 2.14% Claimant 12 $ 43,350 2.04% Claimant 13 $ 36,255 1.70% Claimant 5 Claimant 14 $ 34,684 1.63% 4.09% Claimant 15 $ 34,492 1.62% Claimant 16 $ 34,196 1.61% Claimant 17 $ 29,001 1.36% Claimant 2 Claimant 4 Claimant 18 $ 25,959 1.22% 17.75% Claimant 19 $ 24,663 1.16% 4.78% Claimant 3 Claimant 20 $ 24,407 1.15% 8.05% Grand Total $ 1,767,007 100%
  • 7. Sample, Inc. Repeat Claimants - Largest Incurred Claimant Total % of Total Name Incurred Incurred Claimant 1 $ 525,861 30.93% 33.04% Claimant 2 $ 313,579 18.45% 30.93% Claimant 3 $ 142,260 8.37% Claimant 4 $ 84,444 4.97% Claimant 5 $ 72,189 4.25% Claimant 6 $ 561,675 33.04% Claimant 7 $ 67,349 3.16% Claimant 8 $ 66,107 3.11% Claimant 9 $ 48,597 2.28% Claimant 10 $ 47,102 2.21% Claimant 11 $ 45,515 2.14% Claimant 12 $ 43,350 2.04% 4.25% Claimant 13 $ 36,255 1.70% Claimant 14 $ 34,684 1.63% Claimant 15 $ 34,492 1.62% Claimant 16 $ 34,196 1.61% Claimant 17 $ 29,001 1.36% 4.97% Claimant 18 $ 25,959 1.22% 18.45% Claimant 19 $ 24,663 1.16% Claimant 20 $ 24,407 1.15% 8.37% Grand Total $ 1,700,007 100%
  • 8. Sample, Inc. Loss Breakout - Incurred by Body Part % of Body Part Total Incurred Incurred Spine $ 345,521.00 25.83% Spine Knee $ 256,467.61 19.17% 25.83% Wrist $ 224,056.81 16.75% All Others All Others $ 511,676.43 38.25% 38.25% Shoulder(s) $ 85,606.48 6.40% Foot $ 70,639.62 5.28% Neck $ 56,933.89 4.26% Lower back area $ 56,781.65 4.24% Ankle $ 49,595.84 3.71% Abdomen $ 40,320.17 3.01% Finger(s) $ 35,664.70 2.67% Hand $ 26,954.64 2.01% Disc $ 19,266.38 1.44% Upper back area $ 18,328.89 1.37% Knee Multiple Body Parts $ 12,744.33 0.95% 19.17% Upper Arm $ 11,997.44 0.90% Lower Leg $ 10,299.18 0.77% Face $ 7,484.15 0.56% Wrist Skull $ 4,941.12 0.37% 16.75% Eye(s) $ 4,117.95 0.31% TOTAL $ 1,337,721.85 100.00%
  • 9. Sample, Inc. Loss Breakout - Count by Site Location Total Site Location % of Count Count Location 1 66 15.53% All Others Location 2 169 39.76% 7.53% Location 3 158 37.18% Location 1 All Others 32 7.53% 15.53% Location 4 14 3.29% Location 5 7 1.65% Location 6 9 2.12% Location 7 2 0.47% TOTAL 425 100.00% Location 3 37.18% Location 2 39.76%
  • 10. Sample, Inc. Loss Breakout - Count by Claimant Claimant Claim % of Name Total Total Claimant 2 Claimant 1 Claimant 1 5 4.10% 4.10% 7.38% Claimant 2 9 7.38% Claimant 3 8 6.56% Claimant 3 Claimant 4 8 6.56% 6.56% Claimant 5 7 5.74% All Others 85 69.67% Claimant 6 6 1.63% Claimant 8 6 1.63% Claimant 4 Claimant 9 14 1.63% 6.56% Claimant 10 6 1.63% Claimant 11 5 1.36% Claimant 12 1 1.36% Claimant 13 3 1.36% Claimant 14 5 1.36% Claimant 5 Claimant 15 5 1.36% 5.74% Claimant 16 5 1.36% Claimant 17 8 1.36% All Others Claimant 18 9 1.36% 69.67% Claimant 19 8 1.09% Claimant 20 4 1.09% Grand Total 122 100%
  • 11. Sample, Inc. Repeat Claimants - Largest Claim Count Claimant Claim % of Name Total Total 9.57% Claimant 1 11 9.57% Claimant 2 9 7.83% 7.83% Claimant 3 8 6.96% Claimant 4 8 6.96% Claimant 5 7 6.09% Claimant 6 72 62.61% Claimant 7 6 1.63% 6.96% Claimant 8 6 1.63% Claimant 9 6 1.63% Claimant 10 6 1.63% Claimant 11 5 1.36% Claimant 12 5 1.36% 62.61% 6.96% Claimant 13 5 1.36% Claimant 14 5 1.36% Claimant 15 5 1.36% Claimant 16 5 1.36% Claimant 17 5 1.36% Claimant 18 5 1.36% 6.09% Claimant 19 4 1.09% Claimant 20 4 1.09% Grand Total 115 100%
  • 12. Sample, Inc. Loss Breakout - Count by Body Part Total % of Body Part Spine Count Count Knee Spine 2 0.53% 0.53% 9.36% Knee 35 9.36% Wrist 21 5.61% Wrist All Others 316 84.49% Shoulder(s) 17 4.55% 5.61% Foot 22 5.88% Neck 1 0.27% Lower back area 52 13.90% Ankle 25 6.68% Abdomen 8 2.14% Finger(s) 69 18.45% Hand 37 9.89% Disc 4 1.07% Upper back area 8 2.14% Multiple Body Parts 7 1.87% Upper Arm 8 2.14% Lower Leg 13 3.48% All Others Face 10 2.67% 84.49% Skull 16 4.28% Eye(s) 19 5.08% TOTAL 374 100.00%