Influenza Damage AssesmentMexico  <br />April 2009<br />
The threat: three Kinds of Influenza<br />Seasonal Influenza<br />“The Flu”<br />Pandemic Influenza<br />“A Pandemic”<br /...
Rare but recurrent event (every 10-42 years). Associated with increased morbidity & mortality
Last 3 pandemics in last 100 yrs – 1968 (3m deaths), 1957 (2m deaths and 1918 (50m deaths)
Past 3 pandemics - avian viruses became a human virus
Human viral respiratory infection
Self-limiting, but can be serious & fatal in elderly & very young ~ 500,000 deaths globally each yr.
Occurs seasonally
Routine vaccination available
20,000 death in Mexico last year
Bird virus - different from human influenza virus
Spreads from birds to birds
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Influenza damage assesment

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Transcript of "Influenza damage assesment"

  1. 1. Influenza Damage AssesmentMexico <br />April 2009<br />
  2. 2. The threat: three Kinds of Influenza<br />Seasonal Influenza<br />“The Flu”<br />Pandemic Influenza<br />“A Pandemic”<br />Avian Influenza<br />“Bird Flu”<br /><ul><li>Global outbreak of new human influenza (different from seasonal and avian influenza)
  3. 3. Rare but recurrent event (every 10-42 years). Associated with increased morbidity & mortality
  4. 4. Last 3 pandemics in last 100 yrs – 1968 (3m deaths), 1957 (2m deaths and 1918 (50m deaths)
  5. 5. Past 3 pandemics - avian viruses became a human virus
  6. 6. Human viral respiratory infection
  7. 7. Self-limiting, but can be serious & fatal in elderly & very young ~ 500,000 deaths globally each yr.
  8. 8. Occurs seasonally
  9. 9. Routine vaccination available
  10. 10. 20,000 death in Mexico last year
  11. 11. Bird virus - different from human influenza virus
  12. 12. Spreads from birds to birds
  13. 13. Can sometimes infect humans
  14. 14. Can sometimes mutate into human virus</li></li></ul><li>Development of the threat in Mexico<br />Inter-pandemic Period<br />Pandemic Alert Period<br />Pandemic Period<br />?<br />A(H1N1)<br /><ul><li>Unknown and rare
  15. 15. Suspected in swine not deadly among them
  16. 16. Spreading from Mexico to the United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia and Africa
  17. 17. More than 2,500 infected humans in rare instances – source of outbreak is unknown
  18. 18. 15 certified with virus but at least 160 suspected
  19. 19. Deadly if not treated in the beginning
  20. 20. If A(H1N1) evolves into a human virus it could cause a human influenza pandemic
  21. 21. There is a cure but not a vaccine
  22. 22. 5,000 suspected cases worldwide</li></li></ul><li>Threat level as monitored by the International Community<br />
  23. 23. Impact assessment of the threat as of today<br /><ul><li>Accelerated loss of income due to the size of the informal sector in urban areas.
  24. 24. GDP will decline 4.5%
  25. 25. Lack of a time frame has created “panic shopping”</li></ul>households<br /><ul><li>high illness
  26. 26. overstretched health facilities
  27. 27. disproportionate impact on vulnerable</li></ul>human health<br /><ul><li>increased demand for governance & security
  28. 28. higher public anxiety
  29. 29. reduced capacity due to illness & death
  30. 30. Uprising in prisons due to the lack of food and drugs</li></ul>rule of law and <br />governance<br /><ul><li>deterioration of coping & support mechanisms
  31. 31. interruption in public services
  32. 32. quarantine policies</li></ul>humanitarian <br />needs<br /><ul><li>tourism industry has been hit by the travel alerts .
  33. 33. The cruise ships cancelled all ports of call (10 million passengers)
  34. 34. reduced availability of key persons
  35. 35. interruption of regular supply systems</li></ul>economic systems<br />
  36. 36. Evolution of the threat if nothing changes - tomorrow<br />households<br /><ul><li>more than 20 million live on a revenue earned on a daily basis
  37. 37. Mexico City has a high informal sector
  38. 38. overstretched health facilities
  39. 39. black market mechanisms for medical supplies and medicine</li></ul>human health<br /><ul><li>increased demand for governance & security
  40. 40. loss of government credibility (45% think gov is withholding information)
  41. 41. mid term elections in two and a half months</li></ul>rule of law and <br />governance<br /><ul><li>quarantine policies will affect educational services
  42. 42. food supply for urban centers is fixed on a weekly basis and daily on some staples
  43. 43. important union contracts to be negotiated in coming weeks</li></ul>humanitarian <br />needs<br /><ul><li>Mexico is a bad omen for investors
  44. 44. travel advisories for executives
  45. 45. migration of qualified human capital
  46. 46. loss of employment</li></ul>economic systems<br />
  47. 47. What went wrong – chain of mistakes<br />
  48. 48. ¿What should city authorities do in the next hours?<br />Verify the chain of command in actions and in the delivery of information <br />Establish two press conferences a day, on the same hour (9:00 am and 6:00 pm) to inform to the media and the general population, of the situation and deliver quarantine requirements.<br /> Reinforce the message that this is not a deadly disease it can be cured if treated on time and repeat preventive measures (hand washing).<br />Assure that medical supplies and treatment will be available and free (if treated in a private hospital the City will give a tax credit to the health care providers).<br />Asses the availability of staples for the City on a daily basis.<br />Acquire temperature scanners to be deployed in bus terminals (intra - national), subway and public markets.<br />Inmates that can be transferred or have complied a reduced sentence should be freed to reduce overpopulation in jails ASAP.<br />Involve the private sector in actions that will help prevent contagion – distribution of health kits etc..<br />Announce that a tax credit package is being designed for local businesses <br />
  49. 49. ¿What should city authorities do in the next days?<br />Normalize activities<br />Continue the prevention campaign<br />Announce the tax credit package (salary tax, property tax extensions)<br />Call all the leaders of the cities different communities to personally inform the situation<br />Same with the judicial and local party leaders<br />
  50. 50. ¿What should city authorities do in the next weeks?<br />Announce the creation of a metropolitan crisis response team with the Federal government and the state of Mexico<br />Upgrade the Protección Civil unit (local FEMA) to a Cabinet level post <br />Create a Central Crisis Command center for the city<br />Create a color-coded threat condition indicator to correspond to the current situation. An agency-specific protective measures associated with each threat condition will allow a flexible, graduated and appropriate response to a change in the nation’s level of risk. <br />Roadshow in the international community to reassure investors that the City is back to normal<br />
  51. 51. North America status<br />
  52. 52. A Bio terrorism scenariocan be ruled out<br />Characteristics of BT Agents<br />Chotani, 2003<br />

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