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Influenza damage assesment


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  • 1. Influenza Damage AssesmentMexico
    April 2009
  • 2. The threat: three Kinds of Influenza
    Seasonal Influenza
    “The Flu”
    Pandemic Influenza
    “A Pandemic”
    Avian Influenza
    “Bird Flu”
    • Global outbreak of new human influenza (different from seasonal and avian influenza)
    • 3. Rare but recurrent event (every 10-42 years). Associated with increased morbidity & mortality
    • 4. Last 3 pandemics in last 100 yrs – 1968 (3m deaths), 1957 (2m deaths and 1918 (50m deaths)
    • 5. Past 3 pandemics - avian viruses became a human virus
    • 6. Human viral respiratory infection
    • 7. Self-limiting, but can be serious & fatal in elderly & very young ~ 500,000 deaths globally each yr.
    • 8. Occurs seasonally
    • 9. Routine vaccination available
    • 10. 20,000 death in Mexico last year
    • 11. Bird virus - different from human influenza virus
    • 12. Spreads from birds to birds
    • 13. Can sometimes infect humans
    • 14. Can sometimes mutate into human virus
  • Development of the threat in Mexico
    Inter-pandemic Period
    Pandemic Alert Period
    Pandemic Period
    • Unknown and rare
    • 15. Suspected in swine not deadly among them
    • 16. Spreading from Mexico to the United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia and Africa
    • 17. More than 2,500 infected humans in rare instances – source of outbreak is unknown
    • 18. 15 certified with virus but at least 160 suspected
    • 19. Deadly if not treated in the beginning
    • 20. If A(H1N1) evolves into a human virus it could cause a human influenza pandemic
    • 21. There is a cure but not a vaccine
    • 22. 5,000 suspected cases worldwide
  • Threat level as monitored by the International Community
  • 23. Impact assessment of the threat as of today
    • Accelerated loss of income due to the size of the informal sector in urban areas.
    • 24. GDP will decline 4.5%
    • 25. Lack of a time frame has created “panic shopping”
    • high illness
    • 26. overstretched health facilities
    • 27. disproportionate impact on vulnerable
    human health
    • increased demand for governance & security
    • 28. higher public anxiety
    • 29. reduced capacity due to illness & death
    • 30. Uprising in prisons due to the lack of food and drugs
    rule of law and
    • deterioration of coping & support mechanisms
    • 31. interruption in public services
    • 32. quarantine policies
    • tourism industry has been hit by the travel alerts .
    • 33. The cruise ships cancelled all ports of call (10 million passengers)
    • 34. reduced availability of key persons
    • 35. interruption of regular supply systems
    economic systems
  • 36. Evolution of the threat if nothing changes - tomorrow
    • more than 20 million live on a revenue earned on a daily basis
    • 37. Mexico City has a high informal sector
    • 38. overstretched health facilities
    • 39. black market mechanisms for medical supplies and medicine
    human health
    • increased demand for governance & security
    • 40. loss of government credibility (45% think gov is withholding information)
    • 41. mid term elections in two and a half months
    rule of law and
    • quarantine policies will affect educational services
    • 42. food supply for urban centers is fixed on a weekly basis and daily on some staples
    • 43. important union contracts to be negotiated in coming weeks
    • Mexico is a bad omen for investors
    • 44. travel advisories for executives
    • 45. migration of qualified human capital
    • 46. loss of employment
    economic systems
  • 47. What went wrong – chain of mistakes
  • 48. ¿What should city authorities do in the next hours?
    Verify the chain of command in actions and in the delivery of information
    Establish two press conferences a day, on the same hour (9:00 am and 6:00 pm) to inform to the media and the general population, of the situation and deliver quarantine requirements.
    Reinforce the message that this is not a deadly disease it can be cured if treated on time and repeat preventive measures (hand washing).
    Assure that medical supplies and treatment will be available and free (if treated in a private hospital the City will give a tax credit to the health care providers).
    Asses the availability of staples for the City on a daily basis.
    Acquire temperature scanners to be deployed in bus terminals (intra - national), subway and public markets.
    Inmates that can be transferred or have complied a reduced sentence should be freed to reduce overpopulation in jails ASAP.
    Involve the private sector in actions that will help prevent contagion – distribution of health kits etc..
    Announce that a tax credit package is being designed for local businesses
  • 49. ¿What should city authorities do in the next days?
    Normalize activities
    Continue the prevention campaign
    Announce the tax credit package (salary tax, property tax extensions)
    Call all the leaders of the cities different communities to personally inform the situation
    Same with the judicial and local party leaders
  • 50. ¿What should city authorities do in the next weeks?
    Announce the creation of a metropolitan crisis response team with the Federal government and the state of Mexico
    Upgrade the Protección Civil unit (local FEMA) to a Cabinet level post
    Create a Central Crisis Command center for the city
    Create a color-coded threat condition indicator to correspond to the current situation. An agency-specific protective measures associated with each threat condition will allow a flexible, graduated and appropriate response to a change in the nation’s level of risk.
    Roadshow in the international community to reassure investors that the City is back to normal
  • 51. North America status
  • 52. A Bio terrorism scenariocan be ruled out
    Characteristics of BT Agents
    Chotani, 2003