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PastPresent     Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters:FutureEcosystem health                    Circulation et al.
PastPresent     Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters:FutureEcosystem health                            Tides     ...
PastPresent     Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters:Future                           Dan C. : What we know from ...
PastPresent     Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters:Future                               Dan C. : What we know f...
Hydrographic                                    ROMS HydrodynamicData                                            Computer ...
Hydrographic                                  ROMS HydrodynamicData        2005                        PR                 ...
Climate Change: A regional viewWhat does climate change mean for Rhode Island?Using data/ROMS in assessing the impact of c...
Climate Change: A regional viewWhat does climate change mean for Rhode Island?Using data/ROMS in assessing the impact of c...
Average Circulation from Data:RI waters (summer)  Inflow - East Passage  Outflow - West Passage  Longshore at mouth
Average Circulation: RI waters(summer) Winter/Destratification Alters View: RIS vertically mixed Bay-Shelf exchange differ...
Average Circulation: RI waters                                (summer)                                 Winter/Destratifica...
Average Circulation: RI waters(summer)   Biggest Exchange Events:   Northward to southward wind systems   (3-7 days)
Average Circulation: RI waters(summer)    Biggest Exchange Events:    Northward to southward systems    (3-7 days)      1s...
Average Circulation: RI waters(summer)    Biggest Exchange Events:    Northward to southward systems    (3-7 days)      1s...
Average Circulation: RI waters                              (summer)                                  Biggest Exchange Eve...
ROMS & DataFundamentalBig Question: Question:How are 3-7 day windsdays) expected to changeclimate?        winds (@ 3-7 exp...
The Upper Bay has issues
The Upper Bay has issues……in chronic areas              Providence River              Greenwich Bay
The Upper Bay has issues……in chronic areas                  Providence River                   Greenwich Bay Do we have th...
Three examples:          Bay’s physical response not always as expected  Climate changes:                            Syste...
Climate changes:                       System response  Winds (daily)                          Greenwich Bay (ROMS)Tracers...
Climate changes:                       System response  Winds (daily)                          Greenwich Bay (ROMS)Tracers...
Climate changes:                       System response  Winds (daily)                          Greenwich Bay (ROMS)Tracers...
Hypothesis:Wind controls flushing & water quality in Greenwich Bay.Tracer distributions after 10 days of simulation. No wi...
Hypothesis:Wind controls flushing & water quality in Greenwich Bay.Relationship not the rule of thumb….How will climate-in...
Second example:              Bay’s physical response not always as expected Climate changes:                              ...
Climate changes:                                    System responseWinds (daily)           Seabreeze limits flushing   Gre...
Third example: Bay’s physical response not always as expected  Climate changes:                                           ...
Data & Models Show Otherwise:                       Tilt Current Meters in Providence River       Improved Spatial & Time ...
Data Reveal a Retention Gyre that is Insensitive to March Flood:Opposite the basic rule of thumb                          ...
Climate changes:                                           System response Winds (daily)      Seabreeze limits flushing   ...
Summary:Well-Positioned to Simulate Response of Bay to Climate Change                                          Distributed...
Well-Positioned to Simulate Response of Bay to Climate Change                                           Distributed       ...
Well-Positioned to Simulate Response of Bay to Climate Change                     Well-calibrated ROMS Model:             ...
(1) Forensic & (2) Engineering Coastal Physical Oceanography:            A) Recent - present day: water quality vs. coasta...
2001                                2003Urban waters. Are there low oxygen nucleation zones? What role does flushing (or r...
Flushing Time using Fraction of Water Method        (assume complete mixing)                   Simple estimates: ~4 days  ...
Flushing Time (63% out) vs. Wind                         Q=20cms, Bottom
Calculate flushing times for cloud of tracers (63% gone)        Pathlines for 3 different floats over 5 days in 2006      ...
Retention in Greenwich Bay: Wind mattersResidual flows are predicted to be distinctly different in the two cases.    No wi...
Average Circulation: RI waters        (summer)            Winter:            RIS un-stratified : Exchange changesRIS cross...
Climate Change: A regional viewWhat does climate change mean for Rhode Island?  IPPC 2007:        increased hurricane acti...
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Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters

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Past, Present, Future Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters: Ecosystem health, Circulation, et al.
Kincaid

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Transcript of "Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters"

  1. 1. PastPresent Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters:FutureEcosystem health Circulation et al.
  2. 2. PastPresent Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters:FutureEcosystem health Tides Winds Circulation et al. Runoff Density (air temp.)
  3. 3. PastPresent Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters:Future Dan C. : What we know from buoy dataEcosystem health Tides Winds Circulation et al. Runoff Density (air temp.)
  4. 4. PastPresent Impact of Climate on the Physics of RI Waters:Future Dan C. : What we know from buoy dataEcosystem health Tides Winds Circulation et al. Runoff Density (air temp.) Kincaid : Building tools for past, present, future climate impacts
  5. 5. Hydrographic ROMS HydrodynamicData Computer Model Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) Estuary divided into numerical boxes Coupled flow/transport equations solvedThanks to RI Sea Grant, NBC, NOAA - Hypoxia (CHRP)….. ROMS & Data > Better predictive tools for RI waters
  6. 6. Hydrographic ROMS HydrodynamicData 2005 PR Computer Model MHB GB High resolution Bay ROMS 2006 Model (RED) NB 2007 99-01 2008 RIS a) Spatially extensive 1) RIS-Bay ROMS & 2) New England Shelf - Bay ROMSThanks to RI Sea Grant, NBC, NOAA - Hypoxia (CHRP)….. ROMS & Data > Better predictive tools for RI waters
  7. 7. Climate Change: A regional viewWhat does climate change mean for Rhode Island?Using data/ROMS in assessing the impact of climate change on circulation & health of RI waters.
  8. 8. Climate Change: A regional viewWhat does climate change mean for Rhode Island?Using data/ROMS in assessing the impact of climate change on circulation & health of RI waters. Quick Overview of Our Results: VS. Potential Changes in Climate : 1) Winds (daily to weekly) 2) Stratification (rainfall, surface heat) 3) Extreme rain events
  9. 9. Average Circulation from Data:RI waters (summer) Inflow - East Passage Outflow - West Passage Longshore at mouth
  10. 10. Average Circulation: RI waters(summer) Winter/Destratification Alters View: RIS vertically mixed Bay-Shelf exchange different
  11. 11. Average Circulation: RI waters (summer) Winter/Destratification Alters View: RIS vertically mixed Bay-Shelf exchange differentBig Question:Warmer winters = different stratification & exchange?
  12. 12. Average Circulation: RI waters(summer) Biggest Exchange Events: Northward to southward wind systems (3-7 days)
  13. 13. Average Circulation: RI waters(summer) Biggest Exchange Events: Northward to southward systems (3-7 days) 1st: NORTHWARD WIND, stall average flow
  14. 14. Average Circulation: RI waters(summer) Biggest Exchange Events: Northward to southward systems (3-7 days) 1st: NORTHWARD WIND, stall average flow 2nd: SOUTHWARD WIND = LARGE EXCHANGE EVENTS
  15. 15. Average Circulation: RI waters (summer) Biggest Exchange Events: Northward to southward systems (3-7 days)Fundamental Question:How are winds (@ 3-7 days) expected to change with climate?
  16. 16. ROMS & DataFundamentalBig Question: Question:How are 3-7 day windsdays) expected to changeclimate? winds (@ 3-7 expected to change with with climate?Wind vs. Bay-Shelf exchange : Pfeiffer-Herbert PhD thesis
  17. 17. The Upper Bay has issues
  18. 18. The Upper Bay has issues……in chronic areas Providence River Greenwich Bay
  19. 19. The Upper Bay has issues……in chronic areas Providence River Greenwich Bay Do we have the tools to understand these areas & how climate might change the dynamic? Yes.
  20. 20. Three examples: Bay’s physical response not always as expected Climate changes: System response Winds (daily) Greenwich Bay (ROMS) Stratification Greenwich Bay (ROMS) Boom / Bust Rainfall Providence River (Data)
  21. 21. Climate changes: System response Winds (daily) Greenwich Bay (ROMS)Tracers:Surface-redBottom-blue Flushing of tracers vs. Wind (2006 tides, runoff, density, vary wind) Greenwich Bay
  22. 22. Climate changes: System response Winds (daily) Greenwich Bay (ROMS)Tracers:Surface-redBottom-blue Flushing of tracers vs. Wind (2006 tides, runoff, density, vary wind) Greenwich Bay
  23. 23. Climate changes: System response Winds (daily) Greenwich Bay (ROMS)Tracers:Surface-redBottom-blue Flushing of tracers vs. Wind (2006 tides, runoff, density, vary wind) Greenwich Bay Seabreeze limits flushing
  24. 24. Hypothesis:Wind controls flushing & water quality in Greenwich Bay.Tracer distributions after 10 days of simulation. No wind Strong Sea Breeze Limit flushingSummer simulations 2006, from Rogers, 2008
  25. 25. Hypothesis:Wind controls flushing & water quality in Greenwich Bay.Relationship not the rule of thumb….How will climate-induced changes at daily - weekly scales influence this? No wind Strong Sea Breeze Limit flushingSummer simulations 2006, from Rogers, 2008
  26. 26. Second example: Bay’s physical response not always as expected Climate changes: System response Winds (daily) Seabreeze limits flushing Greenwich Bay (ROMS) Stratification Greenwich Bay (ROMS) Key Pt.……expect to limit flushing…..
  27. 27. Climate changes: System responseWinds (daily) Seabreeze limits flushing Greenwich Bay (ROMS)Stratification ……enhances flushing….. Greenwich Bay (ROMS) Dye into Stratified water Dye into Mixed water After 3 tide cycles After 3 tide cycles Stratification enhances flushing Balt, PhD Thesis research
  28. 28. Third example: Bay’s physical response not always as expected Climate changes: System response Winds (daily) Seabreeze limits flushing Greenwich Bay (ROMS) Stratification ……enhances flushing….. Greenwich Bay (ROMS) Boom / Bust Rainfall Providence River (Data) Key Pt…expect enhanced flushing???? Slow flush Flushing Time Rule of Thumb Fast flush low high Runoff
  29. 29. Data & Models Show Otherwise: Tilt Current Meters in Providence River Improved Spatial & Time Information 2009 (3 months) 2010 (6 months..flood)Bathymetric Map: Providence River - Edgewood Save the Bay Shipping ChannelEdgewoodYacht Club
  30. 30. Data Reveal a Retention Gyre that is Insensitive to March Flood:Opposite the basic rule of thumb Flood Figure. Mean velocity vector for Winter-Spring, 2010 TCM deployment. Flow speeds in cm/s.
  31. 31. Climate changes: System response Winds (daily) Seabreeze limits flushing Greenwich Bay (ROMS) Stratification ……enhances flushing….. Greenwich Bay (ROMS) Boom / Bust Rainfall Providence River (Data) ….alters view of flushing processes ! Slow flush Slow flushClimate-induced Flushing Timechanges may notfollowRules of Thumb low high Runoff
  32. 32. Summary:Well-Positioned to Simulate Response of Bay to Climate Change Distributed Hydrographic Data
  33. 33. Well-Positioned to Simulate Response of Bay to Climate Change Distributed Hydrographic Data Well-calibrated ROMS Model Seekonk River to Rhode Island Sound
  34. 34. Well-Positioned to Simulate Response of Bay to Climate Change Well-calibrated ROMS Model: A Powerful Simulation / Scenario Tool Urban Estuary Example 3-D Flows Tracking 3-D Dye Transport Providence River (Fields Pt WWTF) Biogeochemical Tracers
  35. 35. (1) Forensic & (2) Engineering Coastal Physical Oceanography: A) Recent - present day: water quality vs. coastal ocean physics B) Climate-induced changes to this relationship All rivers & WWTFs tagged: e.g. Examine engineering scenarios for Pawtuxet R. dye feeds shoal gyre enhanced flushing dyed shoal waterEdgewoodRetention (1) (2)GyrePawtuxetRiver Port Edgewood Channel enhances flushing
  36. 36. 2001 2003Urban waters. Are there low oxygen nucleation zones? What role does flushing (or retention) play?
  37. 37. Flushing Time using Fraction of Water Method (assume complete mixing) Simple estimates: ~4 days Simple estimates: ~10 days
  38. 38. Flushing Time (63% out) vs. Wind Q=20cms, Bottom
  39. 39. Calculate flushing times for cloud of tracers (63% gone) Pathlines for 3 different floats over 5 days in 2006 End Start Red dots = position every 4 hours Avg. wind
  40. 40. Retention in Greenwich Bay: Wind mattersResidual flows are predicted to be distinctly different in the two cases. No wind NNE-ward wind No sea Applied sea breeze breeze summer 2006 J.M. Rogers
  41. 41. Average Circulation: RI waters (summer) Winter: RIS un-stratified : Exchange changesRIS cross-flow:1) Enhances Bay-RIS exchange2) Related to stratification in RISClimate impact not always obvious
  42. 42. Climate Change: A regional viewWhat does climate change mean for Rhode Island? IPPC 2007: increased hurricane activity increased precipitation ( > winter ) boom / bust rainfall increased surface temperature

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