Marketbeat spring 2014

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Marketbeat spring 2014

  1. 1. spring 2014 MARKETbeat A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT
  2. 2. A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication 3 MARKETbeat Dear Sir / Madam, Cushman & Wakefield is the world’s largest privately held commercial real estate services firm. Founded in 1917, it has 250 offices in 60 countries and more than 16,000 employees. Cushman & Wakefield has been actively operating in Poland since 1991. As a global real estate company, we deliver integrated solutions to multinational corporations, financial institutions, developers, entrepreneurs, government entities and small-to- medium-size companies by actively advising, implementing and managing on behalf of landlords, tenants and investors through every stage of the real estate process. This report presents an analysis of the office, retail, industrial and hospitality markets as well as the investment market in Poland.The publication also includes forecasts for the future development of the real estate sector. We trust you find the report informative. Yours faithfully, Charles Taylor Managing Partner Cushman & Wakefield Polska TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 FINANCIAL MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 INVESTMENT MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Office market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Retail market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Warehouse market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 OFFICE MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Market overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Warsaw . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Krakow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Wrocław . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Tricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Poznań . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Katowice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Łódź . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 RETAIL MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Shopping and leisure centres . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 High streets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Hypermarkets and supermarkets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Retail warehouses and retail parks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Outlet centres . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 INDUSTRIAL MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Market overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Warsaw region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Upper Silesia region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Poznań region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Central Poland region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Wrocław region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Tricity region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Krakow region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Other regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 HOSPITALITY MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 VALUATION AND ADVISORY SERVICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 CONTACTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
  3. 3. 4 A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication spring 2014 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT Poland’s economy edged up in 2013 with many economic indicators improving, including higher industrial output and retail sales. GDP growth in 2014 is expected to rise by 2.5% while the unemployment rate,which in December 2013 stood at 13.4%,is likely to slip to 13%. With a stable economy, Poland remains an attractive investment destination in Europe. As one of the best performers in Europe it managed to avoid recession in the recent global economic downturn and notch up solid growth. Stability guarantee and economic security confirm that Poland is a strong partner for many international investors. RETAIL SALES In 2013 retail sales grew by 4.2%.The Purchasing Managers Index, which reflects sentiment in the industrial sector, reached 53.2 points in December 2013. Readings above 50 points have been noted since mid-2013 and indicate that the economy is expanding. S&P Moody’s Fitch country Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Poland A– Stable A2 Stable A– Positive Czech Rep. AA– Stable A1 Stable A+ Positive Germany AAA Stable Aaa Stable AAA Stable Spain BBB– Negative Baa3 Negative BBB Negative Sweden AAA Stable Aaa Stable AAA Stable poland against other countries source: S&P, Moody’s, Fitch, january 2013 country 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013* 2014* EU 3.97% 3.96% 4.20% 4.29% 3.02% 3.02% 0.00% 1.40% Euro Zone 3.73% 3.63% 4.13% 4.63% 3.18% 2.97% -0.40% 1.10% Germany 3.05% 3.14% 2.91% 1.93% 1.30% 1.80% 0.50% 1.70% Sweden 2.67% 3.24% 3.21% 1.68% 1.51% 2.39% 1.10% 2.80% Czech Rep. 4.30% 3.98% 3.89% 3.70% 2.12% 2.20% -1.00% 1.80% Poland 5.70% 6.22% 5.98% 5.84% 3.88% 4.42% 1.30% 2.50% Spain 3.86% 3.81% 5.38% 5.53% 5.34% 4.13% -1.30% 0.50% * GDP (forecast) LONG TERM BONDS RATE and gdp forecast source: EUROPEAN COMMISION, ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS, january 2014 key economic indicators source: Eurostat, january 2014 GDP growth Q3 2013* HICP (November 2013)** HICP – Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices * quarter-to-quarter previous year ** month-to-month previous year –0.5% 2.5%0% 0.5% 1.5%1% 2%–1% Spain Germany Poland Czech Republic Sweden Euro Zone EU retail saleS* source: Eurostat, money.pl, january 2014 ** JANUARY 2008 = 100* except of motor vehicles and motorcycles Poland Sweden Poland PMI Germany EU Czech Rep. Euro zone Spain Retailsales PMIPoland 50 35 45 55 65 75 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2008 20102009 2011 2012 2013 FOREIGN INVESTMENT Poland attracts investors due to the good health of its economy, compared with other countries in Europe and the world. In the annual survey by UNCTAD questioning investors about top investment destinations in the years 2013–2015 Poland ranked fourth in Europe and fourteenth in the world. In 2003 the Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency (PAIiIZ) supported completion of 53 projects totalling more than EUR 905m and intended to create up to 19,000 jobs. More than 40% of the projects were in the BPO and ICT sectors.
  4. 4. A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication 5 MARKETbeat FINANCIAL MARKET FISCAL POLICY AND BUDGET According to estimates from the Ministry of Finance for January through to November 2013, Poland’s deficit stood at PLN 38.5bn. The Polish national debt rose to more than PLN 853bn at the end of November 2013, up by 7.5% compared with the end of 2012. In January 2014 the Polish President Bronisław Komorowski signed the 2014 Budget Act projecting the country’s deficit at below PLN 47.6bn, inflation rate at 2.4% and a 2.5% GDP growth. STOCK EXCHANGE In 2013, fifty-four companies made their debut on the NewConnect market and the main market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), which made the WSE come second in the European ranking in terms of IPOs (initial public offerings) after the London Stock Exchange.The largest IPOs came from Energa and PKP Cargo, sized at PLN 2.4bn and PLN 1.4bn, respectively. The main index of the Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG gained 7% in 2013 while the WIG20 index, which comprises the 20 largest companies listed on the WSE, fell by 8%. On the other hand, the property sector indexes WIG-Budownictwo (WIG-Construction) and WIG-Deweloperzy (WIG-Developers) gained 29% and 3%, respectively, over the year. The downward trend prevailing in the construction sector since 2012 is likely to reverse in 2014 with the start of the EU’s 2014–2020 budget spending. Poland is to receive more than EUR 27bn under the Infrastructure and Environment Operational Program, among others, for co-financing road infrastructure development. INTEREST RATES Last year the Polish Monetary Council cut the National Bank of Poland’s key interest rate several times, down to 2.5% in July 2013. The European Central Bank, cut its reference rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% in November 2013 due to the low inflationary expectations in the eurozone in the forthcoming months. EXCHANGE RATES In 2013 there were no rapid swings in the exchange rates between the Polish zloty and the world’s major currencies. At the end of December 2013 the PLN weakened against the euro by 2% and strengthened against the US dollar by 2%. Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 2013 Warsaw 13 18 10 13 54 London 13 25 25 41 104 NYSE Euronext 3 9 3 11 26 Luxembourg 3 2 0 2 7 Oslo 2 2 2 5 11 Deutsche Börse 2 3 2 2 9 Switzerland 0 0 0 1 1 Nasdaq OMX 4 10 4 13 31 Spain (BME) 0 1 1 0 2 IPO (initial public offering) source: PwC, IPO Watch Europe,WSE, january 2014 warsaw stock exchange dynamics source: stooq.pl, january 2014 WIG20 WIG WIG Construction WIG Developers 1 January 2008 = 100 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 80% 40% 120% 20% 100% 60% INTEREST RATES (3M) SOURCE: STOOQ.PL, january 2014 2007 2009 20112008 2010 2012 2013 LIBOR (CHF)WIBOR (PLN) EURIBOR (EUR) 0% 4% 2% 6% 1% 5% 3% 7% 8% EXCHANGE RATES source: stooq.pl, january 2014 CHF (f)USD ($) EUR (€) 1.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 1.5 3.5 2.5 4.5 5.0 PLN 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  5. 5. 6 A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication spring 2014 INVESTMENT MARKET Polish investment market volume in 2013 hit a record EUR 3.12bn, the best result since 2006, with a stronger second half, accounting for two thirds of all deals.The retail sector accounted for 44% of the total volume, with office taking 38% and warehouses 14%.The remainder 4% involved properties of other commercial uses.The office market was the best performing sector with 27 deals (compared to 21 in the retail sector). Last year saw the biggest-ever single deal on the Polish investment market. CH Silesia City Center in Katowice was acquired for EUR 412m by an international consortium of investors led by German financial services group Allianz. German investors accounted for the largest share of the total transaction volume, 25%, and were the largest group of buyers, followed by investors from the US (21%) and the UK (15%). Polish investors came in fourth place accounting for 8% of all deals (EUR 263m). Overall the outlook remains positive for 2014. With economic revival forecast for the coming months, investors’ appetite for Polish commercial property market is likely to continue. However, the investment market will maintain its momentum provided there is sufficient supply of prime properties and stronger appetite for investing in more demanding properties, particularly in the retail sector. OFFICE MARKET With strong investment activity in regional cities (a rise of 683% y/y) the transaction volume in 2013 picked up by 10% compared with 2012.The deals totalled EUR 1.19bn, with Warsaw accounting for EUR 1bn (a drop of 5.7% y/y). The decline in trading volumes in the capital city resulted from a low supply of large scale properties in central locations.This in turn drove price increases in prime properties, which was reflected in a decline in yields by around 0.25 percentage points to 6.00–6.25%. Greater availability of offices in non-central locations translated into a rise in transaction volume by 31%, but also in yields by around 0.50 percentage points to 7.75–8.00%. Prime yields in regional cities also felt slightly and now stand at 7.25–7.50%. Single-tenant office buildings on long-term leases are gaining popularity with investors. With guaranteed steady rental income stream, the sellers of such properties can expect a risk premium at the level of 0.25–0.50 percentage point. Examples of such deals include: Green Corner in Warsaw (Nordea bank’s new headquarters) acquired by DAWM for EUR 94.6m, Feniks office buildings in Warsaw (BOŚ bank’s new headquarters) acquired by IVG fund for EUR 39m or telecoms company NSN’s headquarters in Wroclaw acquired by PZU TFI for EUR 64m. There are several major deals expected to be finalized including the headquarters of Pekao SA or BZ WBK worth EUR 270m, which bodes well for the pace of investment activity in 2014. With improving lot sizes, the transaction volume at the end of 2014 is likely to exceed the levels seen at the end of 2013. officE inVEStmEnt dEalS Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 Transactionsannually(mnEUR) PrimeYield 0 0% 4% 10% 2% 8% 6% 12% 800 400 200 1,000 1,400 600 1,200 2008 2010 20122009 2011 2013 Warsaw CL* Warsaw NCL** Other cities Warsaw CL * Central Locations ** Non Central Locations Other citiesWarsaw NCL total inVEStmEnt dEalS Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 Offices Retail Industrial Others Transactions annually 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Transactionsannually(bnEUR) 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.5 3.0
  6. 6. A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication 7 MARKETbeat RETAIL MARKET The 2013 retail investment volume settled at around EUR 1.38bn, a rise of less than 20% on the previous year.Three largest single deals on the Polish investment market in 2013 were completed in the retail sector: the above mentioned Silesia City Center shopping centre, Galeria Kazimierz in Krakow acquired by Invesco for EUR 180m and Charter Hall’s portfolio of 5 shopping centres acquired by Tristan Capital Partners for EUR 174.5m. Investors’ interest focused mostly on prime properties with a broad offer and established locations in cities with a population of more than 0.5 million.These accounted for the largest share in total volume (EUR 1.04bn). Only EUR 0.34bn was traded in the remaining regions. Limited liquidity of regional markets is hindering investment activity among purchasers, despite substantial supply of retail facilities in those areas. There are generally three types of active investors on the retail investment market.The first include institutional funds such as Allianz or Union Investment, seeking core investments. The second contains investors specialising in the retail sector such as Atrium European Real Estate or Unibail-Rodamco, which are focusing on synergy opportunities from combining investment and asset management activities.The third group comprises entities such as: Blackstone Real Estate or Tristan Capital Partners, expecting higher return on investment by adding value through active management, redevelopment etc. Due to the increasing paucity of prime properties for sale, transaction volume could continue at its current level if investor activity steps up in smaller cities. Warehouse market Transaction volume on the industrial market in 2013 totalled around EUR 0.44bn, a fall of around 5% on the value recorded in the peak year of 2012.The robust growth was fuelled in recent years by a large supply of new and nearly 100% let warehouse, logistics and industrial properties in attractive locations. Properties leased for at least ten years to single tenants with strong credentials continue to attract major investor interest as illustrated by the US fund W.P. Carey’s acquisition of the central warehouse of fashion retailer H&M in Poznań for EUR 64m. Such properties offer steady income for many years giving vendors high revenue upon sale.Yields for such schemes stand at 7.00% compared with 7.50–7.75% for properties let to many tenants under a standard five to seven year lease. The strong performance of the industrial market in 2013 was also supported by a large number of sale transactions, including long- standing warehouse parks such as Żerań Park II and Manhattan Business & Distribution Center in Warsaw and Diamond Business Parks in Piaseczno and Łódź. Such deals send an important signal to the market confirming untiring interest in this sector. In 2013 a number of international equity deals were made on the industrial market. Examples include the acquisition of a 50% stake in Prologis’ European property portfolio by Norges Bank IM, the acquisition of Arcapita owning the distribution parks in Robakowo near Poznań and in Mszczonów nearWarsaw by a consortium of TPG and Ivanhoe, as well as the acquisition of a 50% stake in Segro, a leading developer in Central Europe, by the Canadian fund PSP Investments. rEtail inVEStmEnt dEalS Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 Population > 500,000 Population 100,000–500,000 Population <100,000 Prime yield 2008 2010 20122009 2011 2013 Transactionsannually(mnEUR) PrimeYield 0 0% 4% 10% 2% 8% 6% 12% 800 400 200 1,000 1,400 1,600 600 1,200 induStrial inVEStmEnt dEalS Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 Transactionsannually(mnEUR) PrimeYield 0 0% 4% 10% 2% 8% 6% 12% 200 100 300 450 50 250 400 150 350 500 2008 2010 20122009 2011 2013 Multi tenants Single tenant Prime yield
  7. 7. 8 A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication spring 2014 OFFICE MARKET MARKET OVERVIEW In 2013 Poland’s office market continued to show strong momentum. New office space supply inWarsaw and the six regional cities, including Krakow,Wrocław,Tricity, Poznań, Katowice and Łódź, totalled 548,500 sq m.Total take-up reached 968,700 sq m – a similar level to that in 2012. In December 2013 the average vacancy rate for the seven largest Polish cities stood at more than 11%, around 1.5 percentage points higher than average in core European Union cities. Krakow remains the largest regional office market, but the gap with regard to total stock between Krakow and the runner-upWrocław has narrowed down to just 95,000 sq m and is expected to shrink further owing to strong developer interest and high employment growth in the modern business services sector. Banks continue to be cautious in their approach to financing new developments and require pre-lets for 30–40% of space planned depending on location and project specifications. Headline rents remained flat across all the cities, except for some locations inWarsaw. Given the positive economic outlook for Poland for 2014–2015, the Polish office market will continue to grow with rents likely to decrease further in the next few months in line with the trends in other CEE countries. stock (sq m) Rents (eur/sq m/month) Vacancy (%) Warsaw 4,112,796 11.5–25.5 11.75% CL* 1,246,951 17–25.5 10.61% NCL** 2,865,845 11.5–16.5 12.24% Krakow 634,695 13–15 4.90% Wrocław 539,979 13–15.5 11.75% Tricity 432,985 13–15 11.20% Poznań 303,174 14–16 14.22% Katowice 302,600 13–14 7.29% Łódź 297,499 12–14 14.44% * CL – Central Locations ** NCL – Non Central Locations Existing Office Stock Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 SHORTTERM OUTLOOK All Countries 2.2% 0.1% 0.8% Western Europe 1.1% –0.5% 0.9% Eastern Europe 8.7% 3.2% 0.2% Central Europe 0.1% –0.4% –1.2% EU Countries 0.9% –0.7% 0.7% EMU Countries 0.3% –0.8% 0.3% OFFICE RENTAL GROWTH (YEAR-ON-YEAR) Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 10.0% 0.0% –10.0% –20.0% –30.0% West East CE EU EMU Dec’08 Dec’11Dec’09 Dec’12Dec’10 Dec’13 approx. 550,000 sq mof office space was delivered in 2013 inWarsaw and regional cities
  8. 8. A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication 9 MARKETbeat WARSAW In 2013 transaction volume on theWarsaw office market hit a record high and more than doubled from 278,300 sq m in the crisis year 2009 to 633,600 sq m. Strong leasing performance, however, is not working to the advantage of developers or owners of existing office buildings.The rising supply and vacancy rates indicate that the market is becoming increasingly tenant-led with occupiers seeking ways to optimize occupancy costs or higher space standard at the current rent levels. Rents are likely to decline particularly in existing office buildings with limited capacity to compete against schemes under construction or in the pipeline. In 2013, absorption inWarsaw reached 127,000 sq m, which indicates the office market’s potential to grow further. concentration of modern office space inwarsaw Non Central Locations (zones): N – North W – West SW1 – South West 1 SW2 – South West 2 US – Upper South LS – Lower South SE – South East E – East 100,000–200,000 sq m 200,000–400,000 sq m 400,000–600,000 sq m over 600,000 sq m N E SE LS US W SW1 SW2 CC-Fringe Fringe Core CL Central Locations: Core Fringe standard lease terms in warsaw central locations Non Central Locations Headline rents (sq m/month) EUR 17–25.5 EUR 11.5–16.5 Underground parking (space/month) EUR 120–180 EUR 70–90 Surface parking (space/month) EUR 70–120 EUR 45–75 Service charge EUR 5–6.5 EUR 4–5.5 Incentives Financial contribution Fit out contribution Rent free period for: 3–6 months 4–8 months Lease length 5–10 years Add-on factor 0–10% 0–5% VAT 23% Indexation EURO CPI Others Deposit or bank / company guarantee Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 Warsaw Number of buildings 418 Stock (sq m) 4,112,796 Total vacancy (sq m) 483,157 Vacancy rate (%) 11.75% Central Locations Non Central Locations Number of buildings 110 308 Stock (sq m) 1,246,951 2,865,845 Total vacancy (sq m) 126,965 356,192 Vacancy rate (%) 10.61% 12.24% Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 warsaw office market SUPPLY Modern office space stock has been growing in Poland steadily since 2012. As a result of developers’ interest in office projects in the capital,more than 298,000 sq m of new space came onto the market in 2013,bringingWarsaw’s total stock to 4.11 mn sq m in December 2013,a rise of 6.6% compared with 2012.The majority of new space was delivered in the Upper Mokotów district and in the Ochota andWłochy districts,accounting for around 50% and 30% of the total,respectively.The new supply was dominated by several large completions,including HB Reavis’ Konstruktorska Business Center (48,300 sq m),Bouygues’ Miasteczko Orange (43,700 sq m) and Plac Unii (41,300 sq m) developed by Liebrecht &Wood and BBI Development.Only one building was delivered inWarsaw’s city core:Plac Bankowy 1 totalling around 4,000 sq m.Some 80,000 sq m of modern office space is scheduled for delivery in central locations in 2014,including the completion of the first building of Ghelamco’s Warsaw Spire complex (19,500 sq m) and the Powiśle Park office building (15,000 sq m).Overall,by the end of 2014 more than 20 office buildings are expected to come onto theWarsaw market,but office space supply will be below 2013’s level.
  9. 9. 10 A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication spring 2014 TAKE-UP Leasing activity inWarsaw in 2013 totalled 633,300 sq m, a rise of 4.1% on 2012. More than 78% of leases were for space in non- central locations in contrast to only 137,000 sq m transacted in the central zone, down by more than 34,000 sq m on 2012. The number of pre-lets declined compared with 2012 with their share in gross take-up at 24%, which represents a fall of around 8 percentage points. New leases accounted for around 60% of Warsaw’s total take-up while renewals and renegotiations remained at a level similar to that of the previous year and made up around 28% (182,100 sq m). The volume of deals involving owner occupation of space (29,200 sq m) rose to the level recorded in the peak year 2006. The Upper South zone (US) continued to attract strong occupier interest with 213,000 sq m leased, followed by the South-Western 1 zone (SW1), where more than 80,000 sq m was transacted. The largest deal in 2013 was Polkomtel’s pre-let of 22,680 sq m inWhite Stone Development’s Harmony Konstruktorska under construction in the Mokotów district. In addition, in Q3 2013, the companies from the Getin Group leased 18,850 sq m at LC Corp’sWola Center office building under construction while in the first half of the year the Polish Office for Registration of Medicinal Products, Medical Devices and Biocidal Products took up 13,000 sq m in the refurbished Adgar ParkWest complex (formerly Ochota Office Park).The key transaction inWarsaw’s central zone was Santander/BZWBK’s lease of 11,800 sq m in Skanska’s Atrium 1 under construction near ONZ roundabout.Take-up in 2014 is expected to remain at around 600,000 sq m, but this will depend largely on developers’ pricing policy for space in new office buildings. take-up inwarsaw Take-up – CL Take-up – NCL Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 2007 2009 20112008 2010 20132012 0 400,000 sqm 200,000 600,000 100,000 500,000 300,000 700,000 ABSORPTION In 2013, new space absorption inWarsaw slightly exceeded 2011’s level and stood at 127,000 sq m, a fall of 21% compared with 2012 (161,000 sq m).Tenants vacated 36,000 sq m in central locations, which was compensated by the performance of non-central locations (163,000 sq m).This was due to low new supply in the capital’s city core as well as a shift in preferences of tenants seeking more affordable office accommodation in less prominent locations. Absorption is expected to remain high given the positive economic outlook for Poland and the large volume of low quality office space available on the market. However, it is rather unlikely to exceed the levels of more than 200,000 sq m recorded in the boom years of 2006–2008. eurocentrum, warsaw supply and absorption in warsaw 2007 2009 20112008 2010 2012 2013 Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 Supply – CL Supply – NCL Absorption – CL Absorption – NCL 0 150,000 100,000 300,000 250,000 50,000 100,000 50,000 0 –50,000 250,000 200,000 200,000 150,000 350,000 300,000 sqm sqm
  10. 10. A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication 11 MARKETbeat VACANCY The imbalance in supply and demand led to a high increase in vacancies inWarsaw. At the end of 2013 there was 483,100 sq m of vacant space, accounting for around 11.75% of the capital’s total stock.The highest vacancy rates were recorded in the South- Western 1 zone (SW1) and the Northern zone (N) at 17.3% and 13.8%, respectively. By contrast, the lowest vacancy rates were noted inWilanów and Lower Mokotów (SE zone) and in the South- Western 2 zone (SW2), largely due to weak developer interest and low office supply in these two zones which totalled less than 14,500 sq m.The largest hike in vacancies was in the Mokotów district from 273,600 sq m in 2012 to 466,900 sq m in December 2013, following among others the delivery of two office buildings Konstruktorska Business Center and Plac Unii with 45,400 sq m of available space. In the medium term other office schemes coming onto the market may push the vacancy rate up to 14% at year-end 2014, depending on the absorption level. RENTS The conditions on theWarsaw office market are favourable for both tenants whose leases are due to expire soon and those planning to expand on the back of the existing modern stock. Prime headline rents dropped in central locations in 2013 to EUR 25/sq m/month, down by around EUR 1.5 compared with the end of 2012. Prime modern office buildings in non-central locations commanded EUR 14–16.5/sq m/month.The strong development pipeline will put more downward pressure on rents. Developers are embarking on aggressive pricing strategies to attract tenants and meet bank lending requirements sooner. Incentives such as rent-free periods or fit-out contributions have become standard features in lease packages and, therefore, effective rents are often lower by as much as 25% than headline rents. Effective rents in new office projects largely depend on the development stage and the size and prestige of the tenant. Developers’ growing experience, particularly with regard to minimizing space construction costs, and the compression of expected rates of return also help to bring rents down.The typical lease length is five years. Prime rentsandvacancy inWarsaw 2007 2009 20112008 2010 2012 2013 0 0 4 2 6 8 10 14 12 20 10 30 5 25 15 35 Prime rents – CL Prime rents – NCL Vacancy – CL Vacancy – NCL Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 EUR/sqm/month Vacancyrate(%) GREENWINGS,WARSAW
  11. 11. 12 A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication spring 2014 TRICITY Take-up in the Tricity market in 2013 reached 45,600 sq m, of which new leases accounted for more than 53%, with pre-lets making up around 13%.This was down by around 16,800 sq m compared with 2012.The largest transaction was Thomson Reuters’ lease renegotiation of 9,000 sq m in Baltic Business Center. Other notable deals included the lease renewal for 2,800 sq m in Łużycka Office Park by Geoban (Santander group) and the IT services provider Sii’s lease of 2,700 sq m in the Olivia Business Centre complex. Last year Tricity finished on a record high supply of 71,800 sq m, which pushed Tricity’s total office stock up to 433,000 sq m at the end of December 2013. Projects delivered in 2013 included TPS’s Olivia Business Centre – Point and Tower buildings totalling 23,900 sq m,Torus’s Alchemia in Gdańsk-Oliwa (16,700 sq m) and Euro Styl’s Euro Office Park (9,300 sq m), which became headquarters of the BPH Bank. Asking rents stood at EUR 13–15/sq m/month, and effective rents were EUR 12–13/sq m/month. Robust supply pushed the vacancies up to 48,500 sq m at year end, accounting for 11.2% of Tricity’s total stock. KRAKOW Krakow remains the largest regional office market in Poland with its total stock at nearly 634,700 sq m, of which around 32,300 sq m was delivered in 2013.The key completions were phase III of Quattro Business Park (12,200 sq m) and building D of the Bonarka 4 Business complex (8,700 sq m).The transaction volume declined by around 12% to 94,200 sq m compared with 2012.The largest deals were Capgemini’s lease extension of 9,600 sq m in Quattro Business Park, Lufthansa’s pre-let of 8,500 sq m in building D of Bonarka 4 Business, and Brown Brothers Harriman’s lease of 4,700 sq m in Orange Office Park. Krakow’s vacancy rate rose by around 0.9 percentage point to 4.9%, being still the lowest in Poland. Around 50,000 sq m of new office space is scheduled for delivery in 2014. Projects under construction include Skanska’s Kapelanka 42 office complex to provide 28,100 sq m in two phases, phase IV of Quattro Business Park (12,800 sq m), developed by BUMA Group, and phase I of Orange Office Park (11,200 sq m), developed by East- West Development. A balance between demand and supply helped to keep headline rents at EUR 13–15/sq m/month and effective rents at EUR 11–13/sq m/month. WROCŁAW In 2013,Wrocław strengthened its position as the second- fastest growing office market in Poland, after Warsaw. Its modern office stock totalled 540,000 sq m. Nearly 73,800 sq m was delivered onto the Wrocław market, the highest total in five years.The key completions included LC Corp’s Sky Tower (28,100 sq m), Skanska’s phase II of the Green Towers complex (10,800 sq m) and Echo Investment’s phase II of Aquarius Business House (9,200 sq m).Take-up reached 76,300 sq m, powered by several dozen deals, the largest being Getin companies’ lease of 11,700 sq m in Sky Tower and the debt collection company KRUK’s lease expansion of 7,500 sq m in Wrocławski Park Biznesu, followed by Eurobank’s lease renewal of 6,100 sq m in Wratislavia Center and Credit Suisse’s expansion of 4,300 sq m in the Green Day office building. At year-end 2013 the vacancy rate was up by over 3.7 percentage points to 11.75% from the rate at the end of 2012, which despite robust supply shows that tenants see growth potential in the Wrocław market. Headline rents remained flat at EUR 13–15.5/sq m/month while effective rents stood at EUR 11–14/sq m/month. NEPTUN office centre,GDAŃSK
  12. 12. A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication 13 MARKETbeat POZNAŃ At the end of 2013 Poznań’s total stock amounted to 303,200 sq m, a rise by a modest 24,100 sq m compared with 2012, following mainly the delivery of Skanska’s Malta House (15,600 sq m). Smaller schemes included Wechta’s Temida and Piątkowska Office in the city’s Old Town area, which contributed 2,500 sq m and 2,000 sq m, respectively.The first phase of SwedeCenter’s Business Garden office complex (four buildings totalling 42,000 sq m) is still under construction but the complex will not be delivered until 2015. Low new supply in Poznań is due to weak occupier interest and relatively high availability of lower grade space.Transaction volume in 2013 came to just 39,100 sq m, marking a fall of 7.5% on 2012. At year end the vacancy rate edged down by a little more than 0.1 percentage point to 14.2% compared with the end of 2012. Headline rents stood at EUR 14–16/sq m/month, with effective rents lower on average by 15–20%. KATOWICE In 2013 total take-up on the Katowice market reached around 56,000 sq m, of which 66% were new leases and nearly 22% were two owner-occupation deals. Polski Koks occupied 6,160 sq m in the office building in Paderewskiego Street, while Getin companies signed pre-lets for 6,000 sq m in LC Corp Tower I under construction.The largest letting was IBM’s lease of 9,000 sq m in Echo Investment’s A4 Business Park. Katowice’s total office stock stands at 302,600 sq m.The largest office projects scheduled for delivery in 2014 include the two phases of Echo Investment’s A4 Business Park totalling 17,800 sq m, LC Corp’s Silesia Star (12,800 sq m) and Skanska’s Silesia Business Park (10,700 sq m), where some space will be taken up by PwC.The development pipeline contains among others Secus Property’s Piaskowa Business Center (19,000 sq m) and GTC’s Centrum Biurowe Mikołowska (26,000 sq m).The relatively healthy take-up pushed Katowice’s vacancy rate up by only 0.4 percentage points to 7.3% compared with 2012. Asking rents were relatively low at EUR 13–14/sq m/month, with effective rents at EUR 11–12/sq m/month. ŁÓDŹ Total office stock of Łódź, a leading academic centre in Poland, stands at more than 297,500 sq m. Last year’s completions included five buildings totalling 23,800 sq m, but only Skanska’s phase II of the Green Horizon complex (14,000 sq m) came onto the market. DOMENA’s phase II of the office complex at 35 Targowa Street (8,000 sq m) and building C of Centrum Biznesowe Synergia (2,500 sq m) are scheduled for delivery soon. Transaction volume stood in 2013 at 23,800 sq m, which was 3,500 sq m less than in 2012. Notable deals in 2013 included Infosys’s another lease expansion of 4,150 sq m in Green Horizon, DHL’s lease extension of 3,050 sq m in the building in Targowa Street, and Accenture’s new lease of 1,700 sq m in University Business Park. At the end of 2013 Łodź’s vacancy rate surged by 28% to 14.4%, equating to 43,000 sq m. Headline rents remained flat at EUR 12–14/sq m/month, with effective rents at EUR 10–11/sq m/month. take-up in regional cities Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 New leases Renewal Expansion Owner occupier Krakow Wrocław Tricity Katowice Łódź Poznań 0 20,000 50,000 10,000 40,000 30,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 sqm modern office space in poland Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 –5% 10 4,112,796 634,695 539,979 303,174 432,985 297,499 302,600 14 26 3018 22 Rents (EUR/sq m/month) 15% 5% 0% 20% 10% Vacancyrate Warsaw Wrocław Katowice PoznańKrakow Tricity Łódź
  13. 13. 14 A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication spring 2014 Demand for retail space remained at a healthy level in 2013 with market trends following those of 2012.Tenants focused on established retail schemes offering high footfall and satisfactory revenues. Apart from newly-constructed space, re-marketed shopping centres appear an attractive alternative for tenants seeking strong retail schemes. Due to the current demand level, the marketing period for new schemes has become much longer and few schemes are fully let when they open. Average vacancy rates have risen to approx. 6% owing to the growing volume of vacant space in secondary schemes, particularly on oversupplied markets. The highest rents are in Warsaw’s prime shopping centres at EUR 80–90/sq m/month for a clothing unit of 100–150 sq m while in the other seven conurbations rents stand at EUR 35–45/sq m/ month. Shopping centres in small and medium-sized cities fetch average rents of EUR 21–27/sq m/month. retail MARKET POLAND 2013 was another favourable year for the retail property market in Poland. New modern retail supply totalled 650,000 sq m, up by nearly 20% on the 2012 total. As in previous years, shopping centres accounted for the largest share (74%). Of the fifteen shopping centres completed in 2013 the biggest to open last year were Galeria Bronowice in Krakow, Poznań City Center and Galeria Katowicka.The number of extensions also surged with the largest floorspace volume added to the Wzgórze shopping centre in Gdynia, renamed Riviera. Last year new developments were opened mainly in large conurbations (60%), but retail schemes were also built in smaller cities such as Inowrocław (Galeria Solna) and Chojnice (Brama Pomorza). The retail park segment continued to develop with Europa Centralna in Gliwice totalling 40,000 sq m of GLA being the largest retail park completed in 2013. Several smaller retail parks were also added to the market, including Marcredo Center in Szczecin, Multishop in Sochaczew, Pasaż Wiślany in Grudziądz, Szombierki in Bytom, Dekada in Grójec andVendo Park in Nysa. The retail supply pipeline with delivery for 2014 is expected to reach nearly 640,000 sq m of GLA. The biggest retail schemes to open this year are Atrium Felicity in Lublin (75,000 sq m of GLA) and Galeria Warmińska in Olsztyn (41,000 sq m of GLA). SUPPLY OF MODERN RETAIL SPACE IN POLAND Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 2009 2011 20132008 2010 2012 Shopping centres Wholesales warehouses Retail warehouses Factory outlets sqm 0 400,000 200,000 600,000 900,000 100,000 500,000 800,000 300,000 700,000 1,000,000 Saturation of modern retail space in cities with over 200,000 inhabitants source: retail research forum, Cushman & Wakefield Valuation & Advisory, january 2014 sqm 0 400,000 200,000 600,000 900,000 100,000 500,000 800,000 300,000 700,000 1,000,000 Katow ice C on. Tricity C on. C zęstochow a ŁódźC on. Białystok W arsaw C on. Lublin Krakow C on. Szczecin C on. Kielce Poznań C on. Bydgoszcz W rocław C on. Radom Toruń existing existing and under construction over 11.6 mn sq m– total stock of modern retail space in Poland
  14. 14. A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication 15 MARKETbeat SHOPPING AND LEISURE CENTRES Development activity on the Polish shopping centre market continued to be robust in 2013. Shopping centre provision increased by nearly 500,000 sq m of GLA, of which 380,000 sq m was delivered in H2 2013, through new constructions and extensions, mainly in Poland’s largest conurbations.The largest schemes opened were Galeria Bronowice in Krakow, Poznań City Center, Galeria Katowicka, Riviera in Gdynia,Trzy Korony in Nowy Sącz and Galeria Solna in Inowrocław. In 2014, the shopping centre development pipeline is expected to reach 2013’s level. According to preliminary estimates, a total of 25 new shopping centres providing 520,000 sq m of GLA will be opened in 2014, of which 110,000 sq m of GLA will be delivered in six extensions. New shopping centres will be opened largely in big cities such as Lublin (Atrium Felicity and Zamkowe Tarasy) or Białystok (Galeria Jurowiecka) and medium-sized cities, including Olsztyn (Galeria Warmińska), Kalisz (Galeria Amber), Siedlce (Galeria S), Jelenia Góra (Galeria Sudecka), Ostrołęka (Galeria Bursztynowa) and Starogard Gdański (Galeria Neptun). The shopping centre density in the eight conurbations is the highest in Wrocław and Poznań, and the lowest in Szczecin. Demand for shopping centre space varies substantially depending on market saturation, purchasing power, the quality of retail schemes and space availability. At the end of 2013, Kielce and Toruń posted the highest vacancy rates at 8.45% and 5.7%, respectively, while the lowest vacancy was in Łódź (1.5%) and Warsaw (1.5%). Prime shopping centre rents are growing, but this growth is negated by secondary scheme rents, which are experiencing downward pressure, with landlords having to offer favourable lease terms and more generous incentives to attract and retain tenants.The highest rents for a fashion store of 100–150 sq m stand at EUR 80–90/sq m/month inWarsaw, EUR 35–45/sq m/ month in other conurbations and EUR 21–27/sq m/month in medium-sized cities. shopping centres in selected cities in Q4 2013* Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 Other citiesWarsaw Łódź Krakow Wrocław Poznań Szczecin Tricity Katowice Con. sqm 0 400,000 200,000 600,000 900,000 100,000 500,000 800,000 300,000 700,000 1,000,000 2009 2011 20132008 2010 2012 * Supply Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 EUR/sq m/month * units 100–150 sq m 0 4020 60 8010 5030 70 90 Warsaw Krakow Poznań Tricity Katowice Con. Szczecin Łódź Wrocław Other cities prime rents in shopping centres in Q4 2013 vacancy in shopping centres Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 Katow ice C on. Tricity C on. C zęstochow a ŁódźC on. Białystok W arsaw C on. Lublin Krakow C on. Szczecin C on. Kielce Poznań C on. Bydgoszcz W rocław C on. Radom Toruń 0 4 2 6 1 5 3 7 8 9 % ATRIUM FELICITY, LUBLIN
  15. 15. 16 A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication spring 2014 HIGH STREETS The key event on the Polish high street market in 2013 was the opening of the LouisVuitton store in theVitkac department store in Warsaw’s Bracka Street, while the capital’s Mokotowska Street became home to the Atelier Mokotowska store. High street development is, however, hindered by low availability of stores which could meet the requirements of international and domestic retailers.This is expected to change following several developments such as refurbishment and extension of the Smyk department store in Al. Jerozolimskie, modernisation of the Holland Park (Ethos building) at Trzech Krzyży square and adaptation of tenement houses at the corner of Nowy Świat and Świętokrzyska streets for retail use, all in Warsaw. Due to low availability of high street units, rents have remained at high levels with Warsaw and Krakow posting record highs of EUR 75–85/sq m/month. hypermarkets in poland in Q4 2013 Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 Auchan/Real Carrefour E.Leclerc Tesco 81 units 84 units 20 units 82 units prime rents on high streets in Q4 2013* EUR/sq m/month Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 0 20 40 60 8010 30 50 70 90 * units 100–150 sq m Warsaw Krakow Katowice Con. Poznań Łódź Wrocław Szczecin Tricity Other cities HYPERMARKETS AND SUPERMARKETS The Polish food sector is expanding mainly through discount chains which have already more than 3,000 stores across the country. In 2013, nearly 350 new discount stores were opened in Poland, more than 70% of which by Biedronka, followed by other retailers such as Lidl, Netto and Aldi. Discount chains plan to move ahead with similar growth strategies in 2014. It is worth noting that only a handful of hypermarkets and supermarkets were added to the Polish retail stock this year.The large food store sector is awaiting another phase of consolidation – Auchan’s final acquisition of Real hypermarkets. Food stores opened in H2 2013 included Auchan in Galeria Bronowice (Krakow),Tesco in Multishop (Sochaczew), E.Leclerc in Galeria Trzy Korony (Nowy Sącz), Stokrotka in Galeria Katowicka, Piotr i Paweł in Poznań City Center, Społem in Plac Unii City Shopping (Warsaw) and Marcpol in Brama Pomorza (Chojnice). The openings scheduled for 2014 include Auchan in Atrium Felicity (Lublin), Stokrotka in Galeria Jurowiecka (Białystok), Intermarche in Galeria Neptun (Starogard Gdański) and Piotr i Paweł in Galeria Warmińska (Olsztyn). Rents for food stores stand at EUR 6–7/sq m/month for hypermarkets, EUR 7–11/sq m/month for supermarkets and EUR 5–9/sq m/month for discount stores.
  16. 16. A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication 17 MARKETbeat RETAIL WAREHOUSES AND RETAIL PARKS The supply of large-scale non-food stores in Poland both in retail parks and as free-standing buildings – retail warehouses – comprises a total of nearly 2.5m sq m. Poland’s retail park sector continues to attract increasing interest from developers – small retail parks are planned and developed primarily in small and medium-sized cities. The largest scheme completed in 2013 was the Europa Centralna Park in Gliwice offering 40,000 sq m. In Poznań, 14,000 sq m was added to IKEA Park Franowo while Szczecin saw the completion of Marcredo Center (14,000 sq m). Several smaller retail parks also came onto the market last year, including Park Handlowy Szombierki in Bytom, Multishop in Sochaczew, Pasaż Wiślany in Grudziądz, Dekada in Grójec andVendo Park in Nysa. Poland’s total retail park stock reached 800,000 sq m, of which 70,000 sq m was added in H2 2013. More than 60,000 sq m is currently under construction in small retail parks in small and medium-sized cities such as Era Park in Radomsko and Marcredo Center in Piekary Śląskie. Occupier demand in retail parks remains stable with key tenants from the following sectors: DIY (Castorama, OBI and Leroy Merlin), household appliances and electronics (Media Expert and RTV Euro AGD), furniture and home accessories (Agata Meble and Jysk) and sports equipment (Martes Sport).The retail offer of such schemes is completed by drugstores (Rossmann and Hebe), accessories (Pepco), and discount fashion and footwear (Takko, KIK, Deichmann and CCC).The vacancy rate in retail parks stands at approx. 3.7%. Rents at retail parks are stable at EUR 6–8/sq m/month for large units and EUR 9–13/sq m/month for medium-sized space with the highest rents in large retail parks in Poland’s largest conurbations and the lowest in small schemes in small cities. OUTLET CENTRES Poland offers ten outlet centres totalling nearly 160,000 sq m, one in Wrocław, Poznań, Krakow, Sosnowiec, Gdańsk, Szczecin and Łódź each, and three such centres in Warsaw. In 2013, only one such scheme – Warsaw’s Factory Annopol providing 19,700 sq m – came onto the Polish market. The development which has recently broken ground in the outlet centre sector is City Outlet Lublin to provide 11,000 sq m upon opening scheduled for 2014. Galeria Podlaska in Białystok is being currently converted into Outlet Białystok, which is also to come onto the market this year. Schemes under construction also include the next phases of Ptak Outlet in Rzgów near Łódź and Outlet Park Szczecin. Development pipeline for the forthcoming years comprises outlet centres in medium-sized cities such asToruń, where a concept design is being prepared for OutletToruń to offer 18,000 sq m. Assuming all the projects are completed on schedule, this would add more than 50,000 sq m by the end of 2015. Outlet centres provide sales space for more than 1,000 stores of Polish and foreign retailers from the fashion, footwear and sports equipment sectors. Occupier demand is the highest in Warsaw, whose two earlier built schemes are fully leased and newly-delivered Factory Annopol saw its vacancy rate decline substantially since its opening day.The average vacancy rate at outlet centres is slightly higher than that of traditional shopping centres, at approx. 4%. Rents in outlet centres are relatively low. Average rent for a store of 100–150 sq m in Warsaw is EUR 21–23/sq m/month while in other cities stands at EUR 19–21/sq m/month. factory outlets in poland in Q4 2013 Existing Under construction Planned Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 W arsaw Poznań Krakow Tricity Katow ice C on. Szczecin Łódź W rocławO thercities sqm 60,000 40,000 10,000 50,000 20,000 30,000 0 DIY sector in poland in Q4 2013 Castorama Leroy Merlin OBI Praktiker Nomi Bricomarche Brico Depot Bricoman Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 67 units 44 units 43 units24 units 28 units 90 units 3 units 5 units
  17. 17. 18 A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication spring 2014 INDUSTRIAL MARKET MARKET OVERVIEW 2013 was a very good year for the warehouse sector in Poland. Take-up rose strongly despite a decrease in new warehouse provision by around 30% compared with 2012. Leasing volume reached over 2.1 million sq m, a rise of around 42%.This was the highest level of take up ever recorded for the Polish industrial market and was mainly due to several large leases being signed, in particular, 300,000 sq m signed by the US online retailer Amazon for 3 locations in Poland. At the end of 2013 total modern warehouse stock in Poland reached 7,942,000 sq m, a rise of around 5% compared with the end of 2012. For many years the highest concentration of warehouse space has been in the Warsaw region (around 35% market share) however improvements in infrastructure has made the regional cities much more accessible which has led to more and more industrial space development.Very strong leasing activity in the regions will result in more space being added to the market increasing the share of the regional stock in the country’s total. Currently warehouse stock in the core regions such as Upper Silesia, Poznań, Central Poland and Wrocław totals 5,145,000 sq m.The smaller markets of Tricity, Rzeszów,Toruń, Szczecin and Lublin are developing steadily, but their share of Poland’s total stock is below 10%. Modern warehouse take-up in 2013 stood at around 2,140,000 sq m, the highest on record, with leasing activity the strongest on the Warsaw market, accounting for 24% of all the transactions. Other regions with a significant share in leasing volume included Wrocław (23%), Poznań (19%) and Upper Silesia (17%). New lease agreements accounted for 60% of total take-up in 2013, which reflects continued warehouse sector growth in Poland. Lease extensions made up 32% and lease expansions around 8%. Take-up came mostly from logistics operators and distribution occupiers (29%).A significant share of total take-up was also from e-retailers (16%), followed by retail chains (9%), the automotive sector (8%) and the food sector (8%).Worth noting are Amazon’s conclusion of three lease contracts for around 100,000 sq m each in three large distribution centres to be constructed in Poland, two in the Wrocław region and one in the Poznań region. In 2013, new warehouse supply in Poland fell by around 30% compared to figures recorded in 2012.Approximately 354,000 sq m of modern space was delivered, with the Wrocław region accounting for 30% of total volume, followed by Warsaw (24%), Upper Silesia (18%) and Poznań (9%).The largest completions included Wrocław’s Prologis ParkV (36,000 sq m), Panattoni’s BTS project for Lear in Legnica (32,000 sq m), further phases of SEGRO’s Tulipan Park Warsaw (24,000 sq m) and SEGRO’s Industrial Park Tychy (21,000 sq m). New supply is expected to increase significantly in the forthcoming months due to the very high number of transactions signed last year, particularly in Q4. At the end of 2013 around 535,000 sq m of warehouse space was under construction, more than twice as much as at the end of the previous year, the largest project being the BTS warehouse for Amazon (Goodman Wrocław South Logistic Centre) totalling more than 120,000 sq m. Other major developments underway include Panattoni BTS Castorama in Stryków (50,000 sq m), a further phase of CLIP Poznań (35,000 sq m), Prologis Park WrocławV (35,000 sq m) and Panattoni’s BTS scheme for Polaris near Opole (33,000 sq m). Most schemes are being constructed on a pre-let or built-to-suit basis to meet the specific technical requirements of a given occupier. BTS projects are expected to continue to dominate the market with speculative developments still being scarce.This being said, in some locations where the vacancy rate is currently very low such as in Poznan, developers are likely to add a speculative component on the back of a pre-let being secured. Despite strong take-up, the vacancy rate at the end of 2013 was similar to that noted in December 2012.The vacancy rate now stands at 10.9% compared with 10.7% at year-end 2012.There is around 870,000 sq m of vacant warehouse space available on the Polish market with the largest vacancies in Warsaw (14.8% or 415,000 sq m) and Central Poland (12.5% or 129,000 sq m). The amount of vacant space inWarsaw’s inner city (21.5%) is now higher than in Greater Warsaw area (12.9%).The lowest vacancy rates are in Poznań (4.6%), Upper Silesia (9.4%) and Wrocław (10%), which equates to 48,000 sq m, 146,000 sq m and 87,000 sq m respectively. Markets with a smaller share of Poland’s total warehouse stock differ significantly from one another in terms of vacant space volumes as a single lease will easily impact the vacancy rates which in the Tricity and Rzeszów stand at 2.5% (5,000 sq m) and 7% (8,000 sq m), respectively. In Krakow and Lublin the vacancy rates currently stand at 9.8% and 19.8%, equating to 16,000 sq m and 2,700 sq m, respectively. Headline rents remained flat or fell slightly.The highest rents were posted in Warsaw’s inner city (EUR 4.50–5.80/sq m/month) while the lowest were in Central Poland and in the Warsaw suburbs (EUR 2.40–4.00/sq m/month). In the remaining regions, rents were around EUR 2.90–4.00/sq m/month.
  18. 18. A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication 19 MARKETbeat WARSAW REGION With 2,800,000 sq m and 35% of Poland’s total stock, the Warsaw region is the nation’s largest warehouse market. It comprises two zones: the inner city, consisting of the Białołęka,Targówek and Włochy districts, and the suburbs, an area within a 12–50 km radius to the south west of the city centre – Błonie, Janki, Piaseczno, Pruszków and Sochaczew.The inner city accounts for around 23% of the region’s total stock while the suburbs make up 77%. In 2013, some 84,000 sq m of new warehouse space was delivered to the market compared with 87,000 sq m handed over in 2012, mainly in Warsaw’s suburbs (77%).The key completions in 2013 included the next phase of Tulipan Park Warsaw (24,000 sq m), Good Point Puławska III (15,000 sq m) and Diamond Business Park Ursus (11,000 sq m). In 2013, around 513,000 sq m of warehouse space was transacted within the Warsaw region, a 10% rise on the previous year. New leases accounted for nearly half of the total take-up, lease extensions made up 37% and expansions 13%. The vacancy rate in the Warsaw region remained relatively stable throughout the year standing at 14.8% at the end of 2013 with notable differences between its two submarkets. In the suburbs unoccupied space steadily decreased to 12.9% in December 2013 while the inner city’s vacancy rate rose to 21.5%. UPPER SILESIA Upper Silesia is Poland’s largest industrial hub and second-largest warehouse market. Its modern road network and favourable location have underpinned its strong position on the Polish industrial map.At the end of 2013, Upper Silesia’s stock stood at 1,553,000 sq m, accounting for 20% of Poland’s total stock. More than 63,000 sq m was added to the market during the year, accounting for 18% of total warehouse space delivered in Poland in 2013.The largest completions in the region included further phases of SEGRO’s Industrial Park Tychy (21,000 sq m), Panattoni Park Czeladź (12,000 sq m), Panattoni Park Mysłowice (10,000 sq m) and Portowa 74 in Gliwice (8,000 sq m) developed by SILS Centre.Total take-up in 2013 amounted to 357,000 sq m, which represents a 65% rise compared with 2012. However, despite the high leasing volume, the vacancy rate rose to 9.4% – a twofold increase on the previous year’s level.There is currently 27,000 sq m of warehouse space under construction. In 2013, headline rents remained stable at EUR 2.9–3.5/sq m/month. warsaw area market overview Existing Stock 2,797,000 sq m Stock Under Construction 20,000 sq m Vacancy Rate 14.8% Take-Up 513,000 sq m Major Landlords Prologis, MLP Group, CA Immo, Panattoni,AIG Lincoln, Point Park Properties,Valad, Segro Inner City Zone Suburbs Zone Headline Rents 4.40–5.80 EUR/sq m/month 2.40–3.90 EUR/sq m/month Effective Rents 3.50–5.00 EUR/sq m/month 1.90–3.20 EUR/sq m/month upper silesia market overview Existing Stock 1,553,000 sq m Stock Under Construction 27,000 sq m Vacancy Rate 9.4% Take-Up 357,000 sq m Major Landlords Prologis, Panattoni, Segro, MLP Group, Menard Doswell, BIK, Hines Headline Rents 2.90–3.50 EUR/sq m/month Effective Rents 2.50–3.10 EUR/sq m/month supply and demand in warsaw region Annual supply – Warsaw Inner City Annual demand – Warsaw Inner City Annual supply – Warsaw Suburbs Annual demand – Warsaw Suburbs Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 100,000 2009 20112008 2010 2012 2013 300,000 500,000 700,000 800,000 sqm supply and demand in upper silesia region Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 Annual supply Annual demand 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 sqm
  19. 19. 20 A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication spring 2014 CENTRAL POLAND Central Poland’s warehouse stock is located mainly in Piotrków Trybunalski, Stryków and Łódź.At the end of 2013 its total stock stood at 1,032,000 sq m with another 94,000 sq m under construction.The largest project underway was Panattoni’s BTS for Castorama (50,000 sq m). Last year 27,500 sq m was added to the warehouse market in the region through further phases of Tulipan Park Stryków (19,500 sq m) and Panattoni Park Łódź East (8,000 sq m). Modern warehouse take-up totalled 236,000 sq m in 2013, 13% less than that witnessed in the previous year, with the vacancy rate relatively unchanged at 12.5% compared with 12.2% in December 2012. Headline rents remained stable. The highest rents were reported for small business units (EUR 3.8–4.0/sq m/month), while the lowest were for warehouses in Piotrków Trybunalski (EUR 2.4–2.9/sq m/month). POZNAŃ REGION 2013 was favourable for the Poznań warehouse market in terms of both take-up and space under construction.At the end of 2013, modern warehouse stock in Poznań stood at 1,059,000 sq m, located along the A2 motorway (Gądki, Komorniki, Krzesiny, Luboń) and the S7 expressway (Sady). During 2013 some 32,000 sq m of space came onto the market in the Poznan region. The largest completion was Panattoni’s BTS project Faurecia II developed in Gorzów Wielkopolski.At the end of December 2013 around 132,000 sq m was under construction.Warehouse take-up totalled 408,000 sq m – a more than twofold rise on 2012 – with a significant share in the transaction volume being Amazon’s lease for approx. 100,000 sq m in Panattoni Park Poznań to be developed in 2014.The Poznań region posted one of Poland’s lowest vacancy rates at 4.6% at the end of 2013. Headline rents remained unchanged at EUR 3.0–3.6/sq m/month. central poland market overview Existing Stock 1,032,000 sq m Stock Under Construction 94,000 sq m Vacancy Rate 12.5% Take-Up 236,000 sq m Major Landlords Panattoni, SEGRO, Prologis, Emerson, CA Immo, AIG / Lincoln Headline Rents 2.40–3.95 EUR/sq m/month Effective Rents 1.90–3.10 EUR/sq m/month poznań market overview Existing Stock 1,059,000 sq m Stock Under Construction 132,000 sq m Vacancy Rate 4.6% Take-Up 408,000 sq m Major Landlords Panattoni, Prologis, SEGRO Headline Rents 3.00–3.60 EUR/sq m/month Effective Rents 2.30–2.90 EUR/sq m/month supply and demand in central poland region Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 Annual supply Annual demand 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 20092008 2010 2011 2012 2013 sqm supply and demand in poznań region Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 2008 2009 20112010 2012 2013 Annual supply Annual demand sqm 450,000 350,000 400,000 250,000 300,000 200,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 0
  20. 20. A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication 21 MARKETbeat WROCŁAW REGION The highest concentration of warehouse space in the Wrocław region is along the A4 motorway (Bielany Wrocławskie, Kąty Wrocławskie, Kobierzyce, Krajków) and national road no. 8. Wrocław is now one of the fastest growing industrial markets in Poland with very large deals signed in 2013.Two of Amazon’s three distribution centres developed by Panattoni and Goodman will be constructed in Wrocław and will deliver more than 200,000 sq m of new space to the market. These transactions pushed the region’s total take-up in 2013 to 482,000 sq m – a twofold rise on 2012 – accounting for more than 20% of Poland’s total take-up. Some 192,000 sq m is under construction with the largest projects underway including BTS Amazon (123,000 sq m) developed as part of Goodman Wrocław South Logistics Centre, another phase of Prologis Park WrocławV (35,000 sq m), and a BTS scheme for Polaris Industries (33,000 sq m). Headline rents remain stable at EUR 3.0–3.9/sq m/month. wrocław area market overview Existing Stock 870,000 sq m Stock Under Construction 192,000 sq m Vacancy Rate 10.0% Take-Up 482,000 sq m Major Landlords Prologis, Panattoni, Goodman Headline Rents 3.00–3.90 EUR/sq m/month Effective Rents 2.40–3.00 EUR/sq m/month TRICITY Tricity is one of the smaller warehouse markets in Poland, but it is growing very quickly. Current stock stands at nearly 200,000 sq m with some 21,000 sq m added in 2013, a rise of 12%, among others in phase one (14,000 sq m) of Goodman’s flagship project Pomorskie Centrum Logistyczne, which will provide around 500,000 sq m once fully built out.Transaction volume hit 76,000 sq m, the largest being the new lease agreement of retail chain Żabka (24,500 sq m) in SEGRO Logistics Park Gdańsk which is currently under construction. Tricity’s vacancy rate fell significantly from 16% at the end of 2012 to 2.5% at year-end 2013. Headline rents edged down slightly to EUR 3.2–3.9/sq m/month. KRAKOW REGION The Krakow region contains 158,000 sq m of modern warehouse space. Last year 9,000 sq m was added to the market. The majority of warehouses are located along Krakow’s ring road and in the south-eastern part of the city.There are no new schemes under construction in Krakow.The vacancy rate in this region dropped from 17% to 9.8% over the year and rents remain at around EUR 4.00/sq m/month. OTHER REGIONS The regions of Rzeszów (115,000 sq m),Toruń (96,000 sq m), Szczecin (49,000 sq m) and Lublin (14,000 sq m) are the least developed warehouse markets in Poland and account for around 3% of the country’s total stock. In 2013, only Szczecin’s stock increased with the delivery of warehouse A of North-West Logistic Park (7,000 sq m). Some 65,000 sq m was leased on these regional markets, of which 27,000 sq m was in Szczecin. Transaction volumes in Krakow,Toruń and Lublin were 19,000 sq m, 10,000 sq m and 8,000 sq m, respectively.The lowest vacancy rate was noted in Rzeszów (7%) and the highest in Lublin (20%).Vacancy rates in Szczecin and Toruń stood at 7.5% and 9%, respectively. INDUSTRIAL MARKET TRENDS • A major increase in warehouse supply is anticipated in the forthcoming months on the back of very high transaction volume noted last year, particularly in Q4 2013. • BTS projects will still remain the most popular development model, with speculative development remaining scarce. • With an overall economic improvement in Europe, in particular Germany, the Polish warehouse market is expected to remain on course for continued growth.The vacancy rate is very likely to stay at the current level of around 10%. Source: Cushman & WakefieldValuation & Advisory, january 2014 supply and demand in wrocław region Annual supply Annual demand 2009 20112008 2010 2012 2013 sqm 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 100,000 200,000 0
  21. 21. 22 A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication spring 2014 SUPPLY According to the Central Statistical Office there were 2,008 hotels in Poland at the end of 2013 offering 103,087 hotel rooms.This represents an increase of 5.2% in number of hotels and 5.9% in number of hotel rooms compared to the previous year. The majority of hotels rooms belong to 3-star segment representing 42% of all hotel room stock, followed by 4-star, 2-star, 5-star and 1-star segments. Most of the hotels of higher standard are operated by international operators who usually operate larger hotels over 100 rooms.Therefore the largest hotels are in the 5-star segment with an average of 134 rooms per hotel, followed by 4-star hotels with an average of 106 rooms, then the average decrease significantly to less than 50 rooms. The four regions with the largest number of hotels are the Malopolskie, Dolnoslaskie,Wielkopolskie and Mazowieckie voivodships, representing together almost half of the total hotel stock in Poland. The detailed split of the hotel supply per voivodship is shown on the map. number of tourists accommodated in poland 2009 20112010 2012 2013* 16,000,000 8,000,000 12,000,000 4,000,000 14,000,000 6,000,000 10,000,000 2,000,000 0 +10.3% +8.4% +5.8% +8.0%* Domestic Foreigners *YTD November Source: Polish Central Statistical Office, january 2014 Occupancy in Poland by voivodship Source: Polish Central Statistical Office, january 2014 Świętokrzyskie Podkarpackie Warmińsko-Mazurskie Lubuskie Wielkopolskie Łódzkie Opolskie Kujawsko-Pomorskie Śląskie Lubelskie Dolnośląskie Podlaskie Pomorskie Małopolskie Zachodniopomorskie Mazowieckie 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% HOSPITALITY market DEMAND The number of people visiting Poland and accommodated in hotels has been steadily growing since 2010 and the total number of guests accommodated in hotels in Poland reached 13.5 million in 2012 and 13.6 million inYTD December 2013.The increase in 2013 (YTD December) compared to the same period in 2009 equals 36.7% which represents an increase of 3.6 million guests accommodated in hotels in Poland during this period. The nationality split shows a high proportion of local hotel guests staying at hotels with around 70% of Polish and around 30% of foreigners.The high dependency of the hotel market in the local demand brought a clear advantage during the last global economic downturn, when the Polish market was less affected by the drop in demand from foreign clientele.This is a key difference to other markets in Central Europe that are mainly dependent on foreign demand. A higher percentage of foreign guests is reached in the voivodship bordering the neighboring countries and the Mazowieckie voivodship with the capital cityWarsaw also catching a higher proportion of foreigners. HOTEL SUPPLY IN POLAND by voivodship Source: Polish Central Statistical Office, january 2014 number of hotels number of rooms 99 6,728 167 8,242 98 5,529 30 1,694 185 16,247 91 3,784 218 8,39558 2,140 207 11,006 106 5,877 71 2,458 78 3,073 111 3,441279 14,354 171 9,061 39 1,058
  22. 22. A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication 23 MARKETbeat NEW HOTEL OPENINGS Poland has seen a recent increase in new hotel openings due to the UEFA European championship in 2012, however the country still offers plenty of hotel development opportunities especially in secondary cities. The Polish hotel market is very dynamic and many developments are under construction at the moment. A large number of hotel projects are expected to be completed in the coming two years, including internationally branded hotels such as Hilton, Marriott, Motel One and Raffles. INVESTMENT The volume of hotel investment activity in 2013 surged within the EMEA region, increasing by 15%. This increase was mostly led by major portfolio and single asset transactions occurring in Western Europe. However, with reducing acquisition opportunities in mainWestern European cities, investors are now showing renewed interest in the Central European key gateway cities. Looking at Central and Eastern region, Poland is currently the most important market for hotel investors. There were three important hotel deals in Poland that closed last year in three different Polish cities and we detail the transactions in the table above. The iconic Hotel Bristol was sold in December 2013 to a private investor, following a thorough renovation and rebranding into a Luxury Collection Hotel. SELECTED HOTEL OPENINGS IN POLAND HOTEL LOCATION ROOMS OWNER/DEVELOPER STAR RATING OPERATOR SCHEDULED OPENING Doubletree by Hilton Conference Centre and Spa Wawer District,Warsaw 365 Polaris Hospitality Enterprises 5 Hilton May 2014 Renaissance Chopin Airport Chopin Airport Warsaw 225 Polish Airports 5 Port-Hotel for Renaissance Hotel with Global Hospitality Licensing December 2013 Hampton by Hilton Wspolna,Warsaw 300 S+B Gruppe AG 3 Hilton May 2014 Motel One Tamka,Warsaw 180 Tamex Inwestycje Motel One Q4 2014 Ibis Styles Bialystok Bialystok 130 Orbis/ Accor Orbis/Accor Q4 2014 Courtyard by Marriott Gdynia 201 SwedeCenter 4 Scandinavian Hotel Management under franchise from Courtyard 2014 Hotel Europejski Krakowskie Przedmieście, Warsaw 100 5 Raffles Hotels & Resorts Q3 2015 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Global Hospitality PERFORMANCE The performance of Polish hotels shows a positive trend, especially in terms of occupancy.The comparison of ADR and RevPAR in 2013 with 2012 should not be considered alarming as the ADR in 2012 was distorted by the UEFA championship.This is shown in the graph below where ADR in June 2012 got over 500 PLN. If we take this influence into account, we can see that occupancy increased by 5.5%,ADR dropped by 9.6% and RevPAR dropped by 4.7% in 2013. We are of the opinion that the market is returning to its normal and that the new hotel room supply will not affect the performance of existing hotels as demand is continues to improve. HOTEL TRANSACTIONS IN POLAND IN 2013 PROPERTY CITY OPERATOR ROOMS STAR RATING SALE PRICE IN EUR PRICE PER ROOM VENDOR PURCHASER Mercure Zakopane Kasprowy Zakopane Accor 288 3 13,569,984 47,118 Orbis Bachleda Grupa Inwestycyjna Sheraton Krakow Kraków Starwood 232 5 38,000,000 163,793 QIPML Algonquin Le Bristol Warszawa Starwood 206 5 N/A N/A Starman Hotels Group of private investors Source: Cushman & Wakefield Global Hospitality key performance indicators Jan 12 0 40% 100 45% 200 50% 300 55% 400 60% 65% 70% 500 75% 600 80% Sep 12 M ay 12 Jan 13 M ar12 N ov 12 Jul12 M ar13 Feb 12 O ct12 Jun 12 Feb 13 Apr12 D ec 12 Aug12 Apr13 Aug13 Jun 13 N ov 13 O ct13 M ay 13 Sep 13 Jul13 D ec 13 ADR RevPAR Occupancy Source: STR Global PLN
  23. 23. 24 A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication spring 2014 at the local level supported by regional offices, for investment funds, Polish and foreign banks, developers, investors, local authorities and other companies holding commercial real estate. OurValuation and Advisory department draws on the expertise and experience of Cushman &Wakefield’s global network of specialists. Cushman &Wakefield provides valuation and advisory services throughout the world. In Europe it employs around 60 market researchers and around 200 property valuers. TheValuation and Advisory department of Cushman &Wakefield in Poland has 15 employees. It provides valuation and advisory services Valuation and advisory – fields of activity Retail market Land market Residential marketOffice market Hospitality market Standard RICS “Red Book” PolishValuation Standards EuropeanValuation Standards (TEGoVA) InternationalValuation Standards Form Valuation report, Short form report (e.g. desktop valuation) Valuation report Valuation report Valuation report Industrial market valuation and advisory services propertyvaluation Valuation Team prepares valuations that suit variety of needs including: • Acquisition / disposal • Loan security • Accounting / financial reporting • Insurance • Tax purposes • Update of perpetual usufruct fee • Determining damages amount (compulsory purchase) • Determining the amount of incurred outlays • Reduction of betterment levy • Reduction of planning charge • Valuations for client’s internal purpose The valuation reports are made in accordance with the Polish standards (PFSRM) as well as the international standards (RICS, TEGoVA, IVS, IAS). VALUATION TEAM • Appraisals • PortfolioValuation • Single Asset Appraisal
  24. 24. A Cushman & Wakefeld Research Publication 25 MARKETbeat REAL ESTATE ANALYTICAL AND ADVISORY SERVICES Financial analyticsMarket research and analyses Deterministic and probabilistic financial rationality of projects based on international accounting standards (IAS) Developing projects’ size, standard, costs, income, schedule and macroeconomic assumptions Advising on optimum financing structures based on the current capital market conditions Identification and quantification of key risk factors affecting the financial result of a project Analysis of the model’s sensitivity to changing macro- and microeconomic conditions Macroeconomic and sector analyses Analyses of regional and local property markets Analyses of tenants’ and buyers’ preferences Competition analyses (projects existing, under construction and planned) Modelling the catchment area of retail schemes and turnover estimates Location analyses (accessibility, visibility, planning and infrastructure constraints) Analyses and projections of sector indices such as demand, supply, vacancy rates, absorption, rents, prices and yields, etc. Example projects / Selected clients Highest and Best Use (HBU) analysis, Feasibility study Research reports
  25. 25. 26 spring 2014 Tom Listowski Partner Head of Industrial Department & CEE Corporate Relations tom.listowski@eur.cushwake.com Dorota Skowrońska Associate Director Head of Human Resources dorota.skowronska@eur.cushwake.com Richard Aboo Partner Head of Office Department richard.aboo@eur.cushwake.com Aneta Rogowicz-Gała Associate Head of Property & Asset Management aneta.rogowicz-gala@eur.cushwake.com Mike Edwards Partner Head of Valuation & Advisory CE mike.edwards@eur.cushwake.com Piotr Kaszyński Partner Head of Capital Markets Poland piotr.kaszynski@eur.cushwake.com James Chapman Head of Capital Markets CE james.chapman@eur.cushwake.com Tomasz Daniecki Associate Head of Project Management tomasz.daniecki@eur.cushwake.com For further information, please contact our Marketing Department: Cushman & Wakefield Polska Sp. z o.o. Metropolitan, Plac Piłsudskiego 1 00-078 Warsaw, Poland +48 22 820 20 20 poland.marketing@eur.cushwake.com www.cushmanwakefield.pl This report contains information available to the public and has been relied upon by Cushman & Wakefield on the basis that it is accurate and complete. Cushman & Wakefield accepts no responsibility if this should prove not to be the case. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. For industry-leading intelligence to support your real estate and business decisions, go to Cushman & Wakefield’s Knowledge Center at cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge. ©2014 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. Scan QR code to download the electronic version of the report. Cushman &Wakefield Polska Sp. z o.o. has established and applies a Quality Management System ISO 9001:2008 audited byTÜV SÜD. On the cover: Domaniewska Office Hub / Polski Holding Nieruchomości S.A. Charles Taylor Managing Partner charles.taylor@eur.cushwake.com Marek Noetzel Partner Head of Retail Department marek.noetzel@eur.cushwake.com Iwona Skalska Associate Director Head of Marketing Department iwona.skalska@eur.cushwake.com
  26. 26. www.cushmanwakefield.pl
  27. 27. wiosna 2014 MARKETbeat Publikacja Cushman & Wakefield RAPORT O RYNKU NIERUCHOMOŚCI W POLSCE
  28. 28. Publikacja Cushman & Wakefield 3 MARKETbeat Szanowni Państwo, Cushman & Wakefield jest wiodącą na świecie firmą świadczącą usługi doradcze na rynku nieruchomości komercyjnych. Została założona w 1917 r. i obecnie zatrudnia ponad 16.000 pracowników w 250 biurach w 60 krajach. W Polsce firma Cushman & Wakefield obecna jest od 1991 r. Obsługujemy międzynarodowe korporacje, instytucje finansowe, deweloperów, przedsiębiorców, podmioty sektora państwowego oraz małe i średnie firmy. Dostarczamy zintegrowane rozwiązania poprzez aktywne doradztwo, realizację inwestycji oraz zarządzanie w imieniu wynajmujących, najemców, inwestorów na każdym etapie procesu powstawania i eksploatacji nieruchomości. Niniejszy raport przedstawia analizę rynku powierzchni biurowych, handlowych, magazynowych, hotelowych oraz rynku inwestycyjnego w Polsce. Publikacja zawiera również prognozy dotyczące rozwoju branży nieruchomości komercyjnych. Mamy nadzieję, że w niniejszym raporcie znajdą Państwo wiele cennych informacji. Z poważaniem, Charles Taylor Partner Zarządzający Cushman & Wakefield Polska SPIS TREŚCI WPROWADZENIE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 INFORMACJE GOSPODARCZE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 RYNKI FINANSOWE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 RYNEK INWESTYCYJNY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Rynek biurowy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Rynek handlowy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Rynek magazynowy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 RYNEK POWIERZCHNI BIUROWYCH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Sytuacja na rynku . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Warszawa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Kraków . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Wrocław . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Trójmiasto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Poznań . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Katowice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Łódź . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 RYNEK POWIERZCHNI HANDLOWYCH . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Rynek w Polsce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Centra handlowo-rozrywkowe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Główne ulice handlowe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Hipermarkety i supermarkety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Parki handlowe i magazyny handlowe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Centra wyprzedażowe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 RYNEK POWIERZCHNI MAGAZYNOWYCH . . . . . . . . . . 18 Sytuacja na rynku . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Region warszawski . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Region Górnego Śląska . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Region poznański . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Region Polski Centralnej . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Region wrocławski . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Region trójmiejski . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Region krakowski . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Pozostałe regiony . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 nieruchomości HOTELowe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 WYCENY I USŁUGI DORADCZE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 DANE KONTAKTOWE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
  29. 29. 4 Publikacja Cushman & Wakefield wiosna 2014 INFORMACJE GOSPODARCZE WZROST GOSPODARCZY I BEZROBOCIE Rok 2013 przyniósł poprawę sytuacji gospodarczej w Polsce. W wielu obszarach zaobserwowano pozytywne zmiany, m.in. wzrost produkcji sprzedanej w przemyśle i wzrost sprzedaży detalicznej. Według szacunków w 2014 r. PKB wzrośnie o 2,5%, natomiast stopa bezrobocia może spaść do 13% (13,4% na koniec 2013 r.). Stabilizacja gospodarki sprawia, że Polska pozostaje w czołówce Europy pod względem atrakcyjności inwestycyjnej. Jako jeden z nielicznych krajów uniknęła recesji podczas globalnego kryzysu ekonomicznego, odznaczając się w tym czasie jednym z najwyższych wzrostów gospodarczych w regionie. Gwarancja stabilności i bezpieczeństwo ekonomiczne sprawiają, że Polska jest ważnym partnerem dla wielu inwestorów z całego świata. SPRZEDAŻ DETALICZNA W 2013 r. tempo wzrostu sprzedaży detalicznej osiągnęło 4,2%. Wskaźnik wyprzedzający gospodarki PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), odzwierciedlający nastroje w sektorze przemysłowym, wzrósł na koniec 2013 r. do poziomu 53,2 pkt. Wynik powyżej 50 pkt, traktowany jako oznaka pozytywnych zmian w gospodarce, utrzymuje się od połowy 2013 r. INWESTYCJE ZAGRANICZNE Dobra kondycja polskiej gospodarki na tle innych krajów w Europie i na świecie została doceniona przez inwestorów. Według corocznej ankiety UNCTAD dotyczącej krajów o największym potencjale rozwojowym na lata 2013–2015 Polska zajęła 4 miejsce w Europie oraz 14 na świecie. Z danych Polskiej Agencji Informacji i Inwestycji Zagranicznych wynika, że w 2013 r. przy wsparciu PAIiIZ zamknięto 53 projekty o łącznej wartości ponad 905 mln EUR, dzięki którym powstanie prawie 19.000 nowych miejsc pracy. Największa aktywność (ponad 40% projektów) dotyczyła sektorów BPO (Business Process Outsourcing) oraz ICT (Information and CommunicationTechnologies). KRAJ 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013* 2014* UE 3,97% 3,96% 4,20% 4,29% 3,02% 3,02% 0,00% 1,40% Strefa euro 3,73% 3,63% 4,13% 4,63% 3,18% 2,97% -0,40% 1,10% Niemcy 3,05% 3,14% 2,91% 1,93% 1,30% 1,80% 0,50% 1,70% Szwecja 2,67% 3,24% 3,21% 1,68% 1,51% 2,39% 1,10% 2,80% Czechy 4,30% 3,98% 3,89% 3,70% 2,12% 2,20% -1,00% 1,80% Polska 5,70% 6,22% 5,98% 5,84% 3,88% 4,42% 1,30% 2,50% Hiszpania 3,86% 3,81% 5,38% 5,53% 5,34% 4,13% -1,30% 0,50% * PKB prognoza Oprocentowanie długoterminowych obligacji skarbowych oraz prognoza pkb Źródło:EUROPEAN COMMISION,ECONOMICAND FINANCIALAFFAIRS,styczeń 2014 r. główne wskaźniki ekonomiczne Źródło: Eurostat, styczeń 2014 r. Wzrost PKB III kw. 2013* HICP (listopad 2013)** HICP – zharmonizowany wskaźnik cen konsumpcyjnych * kwartał do kwartału poprzedniego roku ** miesiąc do miesiąca poprzedniego roku –0,5% 2,5%0% 0,5% 1,5%1% 2%–1% Hiszpania Niemcy Polska Czechy Szwecja Strefa Euro Unia Europejska SPRZEDAŻ DETALICZNA* Źródło: EUROSTAT, MONEY.PL, styczeń 2014 R. Polska PMI Niemcy * z wyłączeniem sprzedaży w sektorze motoryzacji 2008 2009 Polska Szwecja Unia Europejska Czechy Strefa Euro Hiszpania ** styczeń 2008 r. = 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 Handeldetaliczny PMIPolska 50 35 45 55 65 75 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 S&P Moody’s Fitch Kraj Rating Perspektywa Rating Perspektywa Rating Perspektywa Polska A- Stabilna A2 Stabilna A- Pozytywna Czechy AA- Stabilna A1 Stabilna A+ Pozytywna Niemcy AAA Stabilny Aaa Stabilna AAA Stabilna Hiszpania BBB- Negatywna Baa3 Negatywna BBB Negatywna Szwecja AAA Stabilna Aaa Stabilna AAA Stabilna polska na tle innych krajów Źródło: S&P, MOODY’S, FITCH, styczeń 2014 R.
  30. 30. Publikacja Cushman & Wakefield 5 MARKETbeat POLITYKA FISKALNA I BUDŻET Szacunkowe dane Ministerstwa Finansów za okres od stycznia do listopada 2013 r. wskazują na deficyt budżetu państwa w wysokości 38,5 mld PLN. Zadłużenie Skarbu Państwa na koniec listopada wyniosło ponad 853 mld PLN, co oznacza wzrost o 7,5% w stosunku do końca 2012 r. Na początku roku prezydent Bronisław Komorowski podpisał ustawę budżetową na 2014 r. Zakłada ona, że deficyt nie przekroczy 47,6 mld PLN, inflacja 2,4%, a PKB wzrośnie o 2,5%. GIEŁDA PAPIERÓW WARTOŚCIOWYCH W 2013 r. na główny rynek Giełdy Papierów Wartościowych oraz rynek NewConnect weszło 54 nowych spółek. Plasuje to GPW na drugim miejscu w Europie, za giełdą londyńską. Najwyższą wartość miały oferty firm Energa oraz PKP Cargo, odpowiednio 2,4 mld PLN oraz 1,4 mld PLN. W 2013 r. główny polski indeks giełdowy WIG zanotował wzrost o 7%, jednocześnie indeks WIG20, sporządzany dla 20 największych polskich spółek akcyjnych, spadł o 8%. Indeksy branżowe związane z rynkiem nieruchomości,WIG Budownictwo oraz WIG Deweloperzy, wzrosły odpowiednio o 29% oraz 3%. W 2014 r. można oczekiwać odwrócenia spadkowego trendu w budownictwie, który trwa od 2012 r. Rozpocznie się wydatkowanie unijnego budżetu na lata 2014–2020. Z Programu Operacyjnego Infrastruktura i Środowisko, z którego współfinansowane są m.in. inwestycje drogowe, Polska otrzyma ponad 27 mld EUR. STOPY PROCENTOWE W 2013 r. Rada Polityki Pieniężnej kilkukrotnie obniżała główną stopę procentową. Ostatnia, lipcowa obniżka spowodowała jej spadek do 2,5%. Jednocześnie, ze względu na spodziewany okres niskiej inflacji w strefie euro, w listopadzie 2013 r. Europejski Bank Centralny obniżył główną stopę referencyjną o 25 punktów bazowych, do poziomu 0,25%. KURSY WALUT Kurs złotego w 2013 r. w odniesieniu do najważniejszych walut światowych utrzymał się na stabilnym poziomie. Na koniec grudnia polski złoty był tańszy w stosunku do euro o 2%, natomiast względem dolara droższy o 2%. I kw. 2013 II kw. 2013 III kw. 2013 IV kw. 2013 Razem 2013 Warszawa 13 18 10 13 54 Londyn 13 25 25 41 104 NYSE Euronext 3 9 3 11 26 Luksemburg 3 2 0 2 7 Oslo 2 2 2 5 11 Deutsche Börse 2 3 2 2 9 Szwajcaria 0 0 0 1 1 Nasdaq OMX 4 10 4 13 31 Hiszpania (BME) 0 1 1 0 2 debiuty giełdowe Źródło: PwC, IPO Watch Europe, GPW, styczeń 2014 r. Dynamika głównych indeksów gpw w Warszawie Źródło: STOOQ.PL, styczeń 2014 R. WIG20 WIG WIG Budownictwo WIG Deweloperzy 1 stycznia 2008 r. = 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0% 80% 40% 120% 20% 100% 60% stopy procentowe Źródło: STOOQ.PL, styczeń 2014 R. LIBOR (CHF)WIBOR (PLN) EURIBOR (EUR) 2007 2009 20112008 2010 2012 2013 0% 4% 2% 6% 1% 5% 3% 7% 8% kursy walut Źródło: STOOQ.PL, styczeń 2014 R. CHF (f)USD ($) EUR (€) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1,0 3,0 2,0 4,0 1,5 3,5 2,5 4,5 5,0 PLN RYNKI FINANSOWE
  31. 31. 6 Publikacja Cushman & Wakefield wiosna 2014 Rynek inwestycyjny W 2013 r. wartość transakcji zawartych na rynku inwestycyjnym w Polsce wyniosła 3,12 mld EUR – to najlepszy wynik od 2006 r. Inwestorzy byli szczególnie aktywni w drugiej połowie roku, w tym czasie przeprowadzono transakcje na 2/3 wymienionej kwoty. Umowy o największej wartości zawarto na rynku handlowym (ok. 44% ogólnego wolumenu transakcji). Udział sektora biurowego wyniósł 38%, sektora magazynowego 14%, natomiast pozostałe 4% przypadło na nieruchomości o innym przeznaczeniu komercyjnym. Sektor biurowy charakteryzował się najwyższą aktywnością inwestycyjną – 27 zawartych transakcji (w sektorze handlowym 21). W 2013 r. została podpisana największa umowa sprzedaży pojedynczej nieruchomości w historii polskiego rynku inwestycyjnego. CH Silesia City Center w Katowicach zostało kupione za 412 mln EUR przez międzynarodowe konsorcjum inwestorów, któremu przewodził niemiecki ubezpieczyciel Allianz. Niemieccy inwestorzy mieli największy udział w rynku, ok. 25% ogólnego wolumenu transakcji. W dalszej kolejności swoją obecność zaznaczył kapitał amerykański (ok. 21%) oraz brytyjski (ok. 15%). Polscy inwestorzy nabyli nieruchomości o łącznej wartości ok. 263 mln EUR i byli czwartą co do wielkości grupą kupujących (ok. 8% udziału w rynku). Prognozy gospodarcze są optymistyczne. Zapowiadana na najbliższe miesiące poprawa koniunktury daje szanse na utrzymanie zainteresowania polskim rynkiem nieruchomości komercyjnych.Taki scenariusz zostanie zrealizowany pod warunkiem, że na rynek zostanie dostarczonych odpowiednio dużo atrakcyjnych nieruchomości, a inwestorzy będą skłonni lokować pieniądze w bardziej wymagające nieruchomości, szczególnie w segmencie handlowym. Rynek biurowy Dzięki dużej aktywności inwestorów w miastach regionalnych łączny wolumen transakcji w sektorze biurowym wzrósł o ok. 10% w stosunku do 2012 r. Łącznie osiągnął poziom 1,19 mld EUR, z czego 1,00 mld EUR przypadł na obiekty wWarszawie (spadek o 5,7% rok do roku), a 0,19 mld EUR poza stolicą (wzrost o 683% rok do roku). Mimo nieznacznego wzrostu wartości transakcji poza centrum Warszawy, wolumen transakcji w stolicy spadł z powodu małej podaży nieruchomości w lokalizacjach centralnych. Ograniczona podaż przełożyła się na wzrost cen atrakcyjnych budynków w centrum, co ilustruje spadek stóp kapitalizacji w tym rejonie o ok. 0,25 p.p., do poziomu 6,00–6,25%. Większa dostępność nieruchomości biurowych poza centrum przełożyła się na wzrost wartości transakcji o 31%, ale i na wzrost stóp kapitalizacji o ok. 0,50 p.p., do poziomu 7,75–8,00%. Stopy dla najlepszych nieruchomości położonych pozaWarszawą również nieznacznie spadły i wynoszą obecnie 7,25–7,50%. Coraz większe znaczenie na rynku biurowym zyskują transakcje najmu całego obiektu przez pojedynczych korporacyjnych najemców na długi okres (min. 10 lat). Dzięki nieprzeciętnej stabilności dochodu, jaką charakteryzują się takie nieruchomości, sprzedający mogą liczyć na premię w stopie kapitalizacji rzędu 0,25–0,50 p.p. w porównaniu z obiektami zasiedlonymi przez wielu najemców. Przykładem takich nieruchomości są m.in.: budynek Green Corner wWarszawie (nowa siedziba banku Nordea) kupiony przez fundusz DAWM za 94,6 mln EUR, warszawski biurowiec Feniks (nowa siedziba banku BOŚ) kupiony przez fundusz IVG za 39 mln EUR czy wrocławska siedziba telekomunikacyjnego koncernu NSN kupiona przez PZUTFI za 64 mln EUR. W 2014 r. sektor biurowy będzie się nadal dynamicznie rozwijał, czego zapowiedzią są umowy przedwstępne na kwotę ok. 270 mln EUR dotyczące m.in. siedzib takich banków, jak Pekao SA czy BZ WBK. Ponadto w najbliższych miesiącach należy oczekiwać wzrostu wartości umów zawieranych w centrum Warszawy, dzięki czemu ogólna wartość transakcji w Polsce na koniec 2014 r. może przekroczyć wartość transakcji z 2013 r. transakcje inwestycyjne na rynku biurowym Źródło: Dział Wycen i Doradztwa Cushman & Wakefield, styczeń 2014 r. 2008 2010 20122009 2011 2013 Warszawa LC* Warszawa LPC** Inne miasta Warszawa LC * Lokalizacje Centralne ** Lokalizacje Poza Centrum Inne miastaWarszawa LPC Transakcjerocznie(wmlnEUR) Najlepszastopakapitalizacji 0 0% 4% 10% 2% 8% 6% 12% 800 400 200 1.000 1.400 600 1.200 wartośćtransakcji inwestycyjnych Źródło: Dział Wycen i Doradztwa Cushman & Wakefield, styczeń 2014 r. Biura Obiekty handlowe Magazyny Inne Transakcje rocznie Transakcjerocznie(mldEUR) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5
  32. 32. Publikacja Cushman & Wakefield 7 MARKETbeat RYNEK HANDLOWY W 2013 r. w sektorze handlowym rynku inwestycyjnego zawarto transakcje o łącznej wartości ok. 1,38 mld EUR, co stanowiło prawie 20-procentowy wzrost w porównaniu z 2012 r. Aż trzy największe pojedyncze transakcje na polskim rynku inwestycyjnym w ubiegłym roku przeprowadzono w sektorze handlowym. Obok katowickiego CH Silesia City Center były to Galeria Kazimierz w Krakowie kupiona przez fundusz Invesco za 180 mln EUR oraz portfel 5 galerii handlowych firmy Charter Hall przejęty przez Tristan Capital Partners za 174,5 mln EUR. Zainteresowanie inwestorów było skoncentrowane na najatrakcyjniejszych nieruchomościach położonych w aglomeracjach miejskich powyżej 0,5 mln mieszkańców, z rozbudowaną ofertą handlową oraz ugruntowaną pozycją na rynkach lokalnych. W rezultacie wartość transakcji zawartych w 7 największych ośrodkach miejskich wyniosła 1,04 mld EUR, gdy w pozostałych rejonach kraju zaledwie 0,34 mld EUR. Ograniczona płynność rynków regionalnych jest jedną z najważniejszych przyczyn niskiej aktywności kupujących w mniejszych ośrodkach miejskich, chociaż podaż obiektów handlowych jest tam wysoka. Największą aktywnością na handlowym rynku inwestycyjnym wyróżniają się trzy grupy inwestorów. Do pierwszej należą fundusze instytucjonalne, takie jak Allianz lub Union Investment, poszukujące bezpiecznych inwestycji. Drugą grupą są inwestorzy specjalizujący się w handlu, jak Atrium European Real Estate czy Unibail-Rodamco, którzy wykorzystują efekt synergii, łącząc działalność inwestycyjną i zarządczą. Do ostatniej grupy należą takie podmioty, jak Blackstone Real Estate bądź Tristan Capital Partners, oczekujące wysokiej stopy zwrotu z inwestycji przez dodanie istotnej wartości do nabywanych obiektów, dzięki aktywnemu zarządzaniu, rozbudowie itp. Ze względu na malejącą liczbę najlepszych nieruchomości, wystawionych na sprzedaż, utrzymanie dotychczasowego wolumenu transakcji będzie uzależnione od większej aktywności inwestorów w odniesieniu do mniejszych miast. RYNEK MAGAZYNOWY W 2013 r. wolumen transakcji zrealizowanych w sektorze magazynowym wyniósł ok. 0,44 mld EUR i był ok. 5% niższy niż w rekordowym 2012 r. Dynamiczny wzrost aktywności inwestycyjnej w ostatnich latach był możliwy dzięki dużej liczbie nowych, korzystnie zlokalizowanych i prawie w całości wynajętych nieruchomości o przeznaczeniu magazynowym, logistycznym oraz produkcyjnym. Szczególną popularnością cieszą się obecnie nieruchomości wynajęte na co najmniej 10 lat pojedynczym i wiarygodnym najemcom. Przykładem może być tu zakup centralnego magazynu H&M w Poznaniu przez amerykański fundusz W.P. Carey za 64 mln EUR. Podstawową zaletą nieruchomości tego typu jest wieloletni oraz przewidywalny dochód, dzięki czemu zbywający mogą liczyć na wysoki zysk ze sprzedaży. Ilustruje to poziom stóp kapitalizacji, który dla takich nieruchomości wynosi ok. 7,00%, gdy dla obiektów wynajętych grupie najemców na standardowy 5–7-letni okres, wynosi ok. 7,50–7,75%. Wysoki wolumen transakcji w 2013 r. był również możliwy dzięki dużej liczbie umów sprzedaży takich obiektów, jak: Żerań Park II oraz Manhattan Business & Distribution Center wWarszawie czy Diamond Business Park w Piasecznie i Łodzi, tj. parków magazynowych obecnych na rynku od wielu lat.Takie transakcje są cennym sygnałem dla rynku, bowiem ograniczają wagę czynnika płynności przy podejmowaniu decyzji o zakupie nowych obiektów. W 2013 r. zawarto również szereg transakcji w sektorze magazynowym na poziomie międzynarodowych powiązań kapitałowych. Do największych transakcji tego typu należały m.in.: zakup 50% udziałów w europejskim portfelu nieruchomości firmy Prologis przez Norges Bank IM, przejęcie firmy Arcapita, właściciela parków dystrybucyjnych w Robakowie pod Poznaniem oraz Mszczonowie pod Warszawą przez konsorcjum spółek TPG i Ivanhoe, a także przejęcie 50% udziałów w firmie Segro, jednym z największych deweloperów w regionie, przez kanadyjski fundusz PSP Investments. transakcje inwestycyjne na rynku handlowym Źródło: Dział Wycen i Doradztwa Cushman & Wakefield, styczeń 2014 r. transakcje inwestycyjne na rynku magazynowym Źródło: Dział Wycen i Doradztwa Cushman & Wakefield, styczeń 2014 r. 2008 2010 20122009 2011 2013 Pojedynczy najemca Wielu najemców Stopy kapitalizacji 2008 2010 20122009 2011 2013 Transakcjerocznie(wmlnEUR) Najlepszastopakapitalizacji 0 0% 4% 10% 2% 8% 6% 12% 800 400 200 1.000 1.600 1.400 600 1.200 Populacja > 500.000 Populacja 100.000–500.000 Populacja < 100.000 Stopy kapitalizacji Transakcjerocznie(wmlnEUR) Najlepszastopakapitalizacji 0 0% 4% 10% 2% 8% 6% 12% 200 100 300 450 50 250 400 150 350 500
  33. 33. 8 Publikacja Cushman & Wakefield wiosna 2014 Rynek powierzchni biurowych SYTUACJA NA RYNKU Rok 2013 okazał się kolejnym dobrym rokiem dla polskiego rynku nowoczesnej powierzchni biurowej. Łącznie wWarszawie i sześciu głównych ośrodkach regionalnych (Kraków, Wrocław,Trójmiasto, Poznań, Katowice, Łódź) oddano do użytku 548.500 mkw. nowych biur. Ponadto w tym samym okresie podpisano umowy najmu na 968.700 mkw. i był to wynik porównywalny do osiągniętego w 2012 r. W grudniu średni poziom pustostanów w siedmiu głównych miastach Polski wyniósł ponad 11% i był o ok. 1,5 p.p. wyższy niż średnia dla głównych miast krajów Unii Europejskiej. Kraków wciąż pozostaje największym ośrodkiem regionalnym pod względem zasobów nowoczesnej powierzchni biurowej, przy czym różnica między nim a znajdującym się na drugim miejscu Wrocławiem wynosi już tylko 95.000 mkw. Duże zainteresowanie deweloperów i wysoki przyrost zatrudnienia w sektorze nowoczesnych usług biznesowych powinny sprawić, że różnica ta zmniejszy się jeszcze bardziej. Banki wciąż ostrożnie podchodzą do finansowania nowych inwestycji, a wymagany przez nie wskaźnik przednajmu (pre-let) waha się w zależności od lokalizacji i innych cech projektu w przedziale 30–40%. Z wyjątkiem niektórych rejonów stolicy we wszystkich miastach czynsze bazowe pozostały stabilne. Pozytywne prognozy ekonomiczne dla Polski na lata 2014–2015 zakładają dalszy rozwój rynku nowoczesnej powierzchni biurowej. Tak jak w pozostałych krajach Europy Centralnej iWschodniej w ciągu kilku kolejnych miesięcy czynsze powinny się obniżać. zasoby (mkw.) czynsze wywoławcze (eur/mkw./mies.) pustostany (%) Warszawa 4.112.796 11,5–25,5 11,75% LC* 1.246.951 17–25,5 10,61% LPC* 2.865.845 11,5–16,5 12,24% Kraków 634.695 13–15 4,90% Wrocław 539.979 13–15,5 11,75% Trójmiasto 432.985 13–15 11,20% Poznań 303.174 14–16 14,22% Katowice 302.600 13–14 7,29% Łódź 297.499 12–14 14,44% * LC – Lokalizacje Centralne ** LPC – Lokalizacje Poza Centrum ISTNIEJĄCE ZASOBY POWIERZCHNI BIUROWEJ Źródło: Dział Wycen i Doradztwa Cushman & Wakefield, styczeń 2014 r. 4 kw. 2011 4 kw. 2012 4 kw. 2013 prognozy krótkoterminowe Wszystkie kraje 2,2% 0,1% 0,8% Europa Zachodnia 1,1% –0,5% 0,9% Europa Wschodnia 8,7% 3,2% 0,2% Europa Centralna 0,1% –0,4% –1,2% Kraje UE 0,9% –0,7% 0,7% Strefa Euro 0,3% –0,8% 0,3% zmiana poziomu stawek czynszowych (rok do roku) Źródło: Dział Wycen i Doradztwa Cushman & Wakefield, styczeń 2014 r. 10,0% 0,0% –10,0% –20,0% –30,0% Europa Zachodnia Europa Wschodnia Europa Centralna Kraje UE Strefa Euro XII 2008 XII 2011XII 2009 XII 2012XII 2010 XII 2013 prawie 550 tys. mkw.powierzchni biurowej oddano do użytku w 2013 roku wWarszawie i miastach regionalnych

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