Impacts, vulnerability and adaptatio

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Impacts, vulnerability and adaptatio

  1. 1. Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation: Towards a Framework for Climate Action & What does this have to do with Forests? Jesse Ribot Department of Geography University of Illinois
  2. 2. Impacts? Dislocation Famine Hunger Economic Loss Reduced Wellbeing Loss of Livelihood CLIMATE EVENT
  3. 3. <ul><li>VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS </li></ul>Loss of Livelihood Exploitation Market Fluctuations Lack of Planning Environmental Variability or Change Poor Infrastructure Poverty Resource Access Political Exclusion Poor Social Security System Unstable Policy
  4. 4. Urban population Retailers Urban wholesalers Transporters Co-operatives Merchants/ Patrons Migrant Woodcutters Forest Villages Rural Intermediaries Kontrapalaas Actors in Senegal’s Charcoal Market
  5. 5. Urban population Retailers Wholesalers Transporters Migrant Woodcutters Forest Villages Other Institutions - Unions - Religious Brotherhoods Ministries National Forest Department Rural Intermediaries kontrapalaas Regional Forest Service Local Forest Service Elected Regional Council Elected Rural Council/PCR Wood & Charcoal Loans Market regulations Unofficial relations Co-operatives Merchants/ Patrons
  6. 6. PRICE STRUCTURE AND PROFIT MARGINS FOR A SACK OF CHARCOAL (IN 2002 CONSTANT CFA) -?? 183*?? 519 Retailer +41% 317 225 Urban Wholesalers +29% 774 598 Merchants - 30 - Rural Intermediary -1% 727 734 Woodcutter Profit Margins (all costs deducted) 4076*?? 3639 Retailer to Customer in Dakar 3769 3031 Wholesaler price to Retailer 3452 2806 Merchant price to Wholesaler 778 839 Urban Woodcutter price to Merchant Average Prices Change 2002-2003 1987
  7. 7. AVERAGE ANNUAL PROFIT OF ACTORS IN CHARCOAL MARKET 180.000 Retailer 1,600,000 Urban Wholesaler 2,000,000 Merchant 236,000 Rural Intermediary 72,000 Woodcutter Annual Average Profit (CFA) Actor
  8. 8. PROFIT DISTRIBUTION IN MARKET 7% 22% - - 54% 16% 3% Even Skewed - - Skewed Even Skewed Urban population Retailers Urban wholesalers Transporters Co-operatives Merchants/ Patrons Migrant Woodcutters Forest Villages Rural Intermediaries
  9. 9. Retailers Urban wholesalers Merchants/Patrons Migrant Woodcutters Forest Villages FONT-SCALED PROFIT DISTRIBUTION
  10. 10. EXPLAINING DISTRIBUTION: Old and New MECHANISMS OF BENEFIT CONCENTRATION <ul><li>Villagers  Forest access control </li></ul><ul><li>Woodcutters  Access to merchants </li></ul><ul><li>PCR  Ability to delay start of season </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Former Signature </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Merchants  Control of labor opportunities </li></ul><ul><li> Policy control of access to markets </li></ul><ul><li> Leverage over prices </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li> Subordination of PCR </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Wholesalers  Control of distribution </li></ul><ul><li>Retailers  Maintenance of access to wholesalers </li></ul><ul><li> Leverage over prices </li></ul>
  11. 11. Vulnerability Reduction Action Mapping <ul><li>Identify vulnerabilities of concern </li></ul><ul><li>Identify categories of people at risk </li></ul><ul><li>Analyze factors shaping each group’s vulnerabilities . </li></ul><ul><li>Characterize proximate and root causes of their vulnerability </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluate solutions that treat the elements and causes of vulnerabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Aggregate causes and solutions across social categories and vulnerabilities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Which are most important? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Which are most prevalent? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Which are most treatable—technically, socially politically feasible? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What institutions and scales of intervention do causal structures imply? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Map causes and adaptive opportunities onto responsive institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Establish action and funding strategies </li></ul>
  12. 12. ∑ Aggregate across multiple causes Place by Place/Group by Group Analysis Develop strategies to treat most salient causes: x, b, c… Livelihood Loss y e b x x a z q Dislocation c e b w x a z h Hunger f u b x x a b c Economic Loss Y e b c x a z q
  13. 13. Role of Climate Variation Place by Place/Group by Group Analysis Role Unregulated of Economy Labor exploitation Market access exclusion Excessive management plans Collusive low producer prices Livelihood Loss y e b x x a z q Dislocation c e b w x a z h Hunger f u b e x a b c Economic Loss Y e b c x a z q

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